After an offseason that seemed to
last forever, the NFL season finally kicks off tomorrow. (Ignore the fact that
the first game was actually on Thursday, and that by the time most of you read
this it will already be Sundays.) In many ways the first weekend of the season
is the most exciting, filled with almost endless possibilities. No one knows
for sure what these teams will look like, and no one knows what the next five
months hold.
And now having said that, let me
tell you exactly what will happen this season.
(In case you want any more in depth thoughts, here are my previews for each of the eight divisions.)
AFC North
NFC
NFC South
Carolina
Panthers: 12-4
Atlanta
Falcons: 8-8
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers: 7-9
New
Orleans Saints: 3-13
The opening loss to the Broncos
caught me off guard, and I almost dropped Carolina’s final win total by a game
because of that. But they are still the class of this division, and they’ll
right the few bumps that appeared against a quality Denver team. Newton looked
even more impressive in the first game than he did a year ago, Kelvin Benjamin
is a nightmare, and their run defense will pull together after a disappointing
performance.
The other teams won’t challenge
them for the division, but they could push for a wild card spot. Tampa Bay has
the potential to break out, but we’ve said the same thing for the past three
years, and even some fresh talent on offense isn’t going to convince me to go
all the way with them. I actually kind of like Atlanta as a sneaky bounce back
team, especially if their young defense can pull together. New Orleans is a
lost cause, and they will likely be a lost cause for the remainder of Drew
Brees’s time there. Which is unfortunate, because he’s still good enough to
will them to three more victories than they’d have without him.
NFC West
Seattle
Seahawks: 12-4
Arizona
Cardinals: 11-5
Los
Angeles Rams: 7-9
San
Francisco 49ers: 5-11
This is probably the most
anticipated division race of the season. Everyone has already forgotten about
the Rams and the 49ers, and most will probably go to bed well before their
opening game on Monday night (I won’t, but I’m also a very psychologically
unwell human being). The 7-9 record has become a running joke for Jeff Fisher,
and it only became funnier when he revealed that he is aware of it, but that’s
what this team is. Not good enough to make the playoffs, not bad enough to fall
to pieces. 7-9.
After a surprising division
victory by the Cardinals last year, many people are calling them the best team
in the league and the Super Bowl favorites. I’m not as high on them as most
people. I don’t see much depth, and I see a lot of very fragile pieces holding
them together. They could come together and tear through the league like they
did a year ago, or Carson Palmer and Tyrann Mathieu could break down like they
did two years ago. In the end, the Seahawks are the more reliable pick. We know
they’ll be good, and that certainty is enough for me to give them the division.
NFC East
Washington
Redskins: 9-7
New York
Giants: 8-8
Dallas
Cowboys: 6-10
Philadelphia
Eagles: 4-12
This division has changed quite a
bit since I wrote up the preview post. What looked like a possible runaway for
the Cowboys became a four team race with the injury to Tony Romo, which became
a three team race when Philadelphia traded away Sam Bradford. The Eagles are
now clearly at the bottom of this division, in contention to finish with the
worst record in the league (reminder that their pick goes to Cleveland and they
likely get Minnesota’s much worse selection). Carson Wentz isn’t ready to start
in the NFL, and the Eagles know this, but they’re going to throw him out there
anyway, surrounded by one of the least talented offenses in the NFL.
Things will go better for the
other teams, even if better doesn’t necessarily mean good. Dallas is still the
most talented team from top to bottom, and if Dak Prescott can do in the
regular season what he did in the preseason, they’ll pull this out in the end.
But I don’t have faith in fourth round rookie quarterbacks, so instead I think
it will be a dogfight between the Redskins and the Giants. This one could go
either way, but I don’t think New York’s offseason moves will be enough to lift
them over last year’s champions.
NFC North
Green
Bay Packers: 13-3
Minnesota
Vikings: 9-7
Detroit
Lions: 7-9
Chicago
Bears: 6-10
A week has passed since the
Bradford trade, and I’ve stepped back from the ledge a little. It was still a
terrible, stupid mistake that will cost the Vikings for years to come, but it
at least stabilizes things for this year. Bradford will provide a base level of
competence for Minnesota’s offense, enough to elevate them above the bottom
feeders in the division while not enough to challenge the Packers as
Bridgewater could have. Green Bay faces the easiest road of any team in the
league, and even though they’re probably the fourth best team in the NFC I see
them finishing with the best record and home field advantage in the playoffs.
The Bears and the Lions aren’t
particularly inspiring, but they’re intriguing. Both have enough young pieces
on defense that they could pull things together this year, and anything is
possible with these quarterbacks. As the last person still riding the Jay
Cutler bandwagon, I’d feel a bit guilty hopping off now, so I’m going to cling
on even harder. With Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White on the outside, and with a
reasonably competent offensive line, he could be looking at a career year, and
if things break right this is one team I could see making a surprise run at the
playoffs.
AFC
AFC South
Indianapolis
Colts: 10-6
Jacksonville
Jaguars: 7-9
Houston
Texans: 7-9
Tennessee
Titans: 3-13
The injury to Andrew Luck threw
this division off a year ago, but I think it will get back to the normal flow
of things this year. None of these teams are very good, but the Colts have a
superstar at quarterback, and that will put them over the top. They aren’t the
Super Bowl contender some people thought they were at the start of last year,
but they are still the class of this division.
The Colts will be as good as
they’ve been, and the only question is if one of the other teams can finally
step forward and challenge them. It certainly won’t happen in Tennessee, where
Mike Mularkey is taking their promising young quarterback and using him to set
football backwards twenty years. Houston has a chance, particularly if Brock
Osweiler can prove himself worthy of the $72 million contract he received this
offseason. But Osweiler wasn’t very good last year, in a much better situation
in Denver. If there’s a team that has a chance, it’s Jacksonville, but as high
as I am on the Jaguars I still think they’re a year away.
AFC West
San
Diego Chargers: 9-7
Kansas
City Chiefs: 9-7
Denver
Broncos: 8-8
Oakland
Raiders: 8-8
Flip a coin three times and
you’ll have as good a chance picking this division as anyone. This is the most
competitive race of the year, featuring four teams that are all middle of the
pack in very different ways. There’s the Raiders, a young team that could
explode or fall to pieces. There’s the Broncos, a dominant defense trying to
find an identity on offense. There’s the Chargers, a mediocre squad dragged on
by a superstar quarterback. And there’s the Chiefs, a team that’s good at
pretty much everything but not great at anything.
I picked the Chargers in my
preview, and I don’t see a reason to change that now. Probably the least
talented from top to bottom, I’m staking my pick on them having the best
quarterback in the division. Rivers has been tortured by injuries surrounding
him for the past few years, but if Keenan Allen and the offensive line can stay
healthy healthy, he can shred the league with his surgical precision
underneath. Where the Broncos and the Chiefs have very defined ceilings and the
Raiders have a very undefined floors, the Chargers have the best combination of
security and upside, giving them the best shot of emerging on top at the end of
this four way wrestling match.
AFC East
New
England Patriots: 12-4
New York
Jets: 9-7
Miami
Dolphins: 6-10
Buffalo
Bills: 6-10
Since Tom Brady took over as the
quarterback of the Patriots only two other teams have won this division. The
Jets won in 2002, Brady’s second year as a starter, and the Dolphins won in
2008, when Brady missed fifteen games with a torn ACL. In theory, this could be
the next opportunity, with Brady on the sideline for the first four weeks of
the season. The Jets and Bills both took steps forward last year, and the
Dolphins should bounce back after a disappointing 2015. One of these teams
could step up and steal this division.
That’s not going to happen. The
Patriots are missing their best player, but they are still the deepest and best
coached team in the AFC East. And it isn’t like any of these teams is putting
out a superstar quarterback of their own. Three quarters of Tom Brady is still
far and away the best quarterback in the division, and that’s before taking
into account the Bill Belichick factor. The Patriots should be able to coast to
a division title again, as the other three teams fight just to grab a wild card
spot.
AFC North
Pittsburgh
Steelers: 12-4
Cincinnati
Bengals: 11-5
Cleveland
Browns: 6-10
Baltimore
Ravens: 6-10
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati ran
away from the other two teams in this division a year ago, and the same thing
will likely happen this year. It might be reasonable to expect some bounceback
from the Ravens after an out of character 2015 season, but this is an old team
without a lot of talent, and I think we’re looking at more of a new normal for
the Ravens. If anyone was going to surprise in this division it would be the
Browns, though for them a “surprise” simply means not being an embarrassment to
the game of football.
The Bengals and the Steelers are
two of the top three teams in the AFC, and they’ll be battling for the division
title once again this year. The Bengals won the division last year, but the two
teams are moving in opposite directions. Cincinnati lost a couple key pieces on
both sides of the ball, and the biggest loss was probably the departure of
offensive coordinator Hue Jackson. They’ll regress some, while Pittsburgh will
only get better as the young pieces on their defense step in.
Awards
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Ezekiel Elliott,
RB, Dallas Cowboys
This is the easiest award pick I
can ever recall making. A supremely talented running back, lining up behind the
best run blocking line in the league, in an offense that will be completely
built around him, in a year with a very thin class of rookie skill position
players. There’s no Jameis Winston or Amari Cooper to push him, and there isn’t
any worry about him being lost in a mediocre team. In Dallas the lights will
always be on him, and the only way Elliott doesn’t win this award is if a
teammate like Darren McFadden or Alfred Morris takes greater advantage of the
situation than he does.
Other possibilities: Carson
Wentz, Corey Coleman, Derrick Henry
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Vernon
Hargreaves, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
One year ago two very talented
young cornerbacks battled down the stretch for this award, with the playmaking
Marcus Peters ultimately winning over the more deserving Ronald
Darby. Darby was excellent and consistent in coverage, but Peters led the
league in interceptions, making up for being regularly burned over the
course of the season.
The same thing will happen again
this year. Jalen Ramsey is a better player than Hargreaves, and he will play a
major role in any progress the Jaguars make on defense. But
Hargreaves is a very good cornerback in his own right, and he is Ramsey’s
superior when it comes to making the big play. Where Ramsey will probably end
up with two or three interceptions, I could see Hargreaves collecting four or
five, at least one of which he’ll return for a touchdown. Ramsey is solid, but
Hargreaves is dynamic in a way that will win him this award.
Other possibilities: Jalen
Ramsey, Myles Jack, Karl Joseph
Coach of the Year – Mike Zimmer, Minnesota
Vikings
If the Vikings make the playoffs
this year, Zimmer is going to win this award. Put aside what he’s done over the
past three years in rebuilding this team, and put aside all the work that’s
gone into developing this defense into one of the elite units in the league. If
a team can lose their starting quarterback less than two weeks before the
season, replace him with a mediocre player who doesn’t know the playbook, and still
scrap together enough wins to make the playoffs, that coach is going to run
away with this award. Add in all that other stuff, and the general good will
that surrounds Zimmer around the league, and this could be one of the easiest
selections at the end of the year.
Other possibilities: Bill
Belichick, Mike McCoy, Mike McCarthy
Comeback Player of the Year – Andrew Luck, QB,
Indianapolis Colts
Once Tony Romo went down, this
one was pretty much locked up. Quarterbacks dominate every story, and there
were two MVP caliber passers returning from team wrecking injuries a year ago.
And now that Romo is out for a large chunk of the season, all the attention
will turn to Luck.
Luck is phenomenally talented,
and a year without watching him at full strength on the field will allow us to
rediscover how magnificent it is watching him carry the Colts to relevance. His
statistics will always leave people questioning him, until they watch him
deliver 40 yard lasers between a cornerback and a safety two or three times in
each game he plays. What Luck does transcends numbers, and we’ll have a chance
to see that again as he carries the Colts to another easy division title and
puts himself once again in the conversation among the best quarterbacks in the
league.
Other possibilities: Jordy
Nelson, Le’Veon Bell, Kelvin Benjamin
Defensive Player of the Year – JJ Watt, DE,
Houston Texans
Two years ago I made a mistake
and picked against Watt. At the time I decided that people were probably tired
of Watt, that his dominance would start to get old, and that the struggles of
the Texans would doom him. I was wrong that year, and I won’t make that mistake
again.
There has been a lot of backlash to Watt since the season ended. People
are growing tired with the character he portrays off the field, with the
constant stream of clichés that spout from his mouth during the offseason. But
once he gets back on the field everyone will forget all about that, as they
once again find themselves watching potentially the greatest defensive player
in NFL history dominate on a week in and week out basis.
Other possibilities: Aaron
Donald, Von Miller, Khalil Mack
MVP – Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Everything is playing out
perfectly for Rodgers to claim this award. A division and a schedule set up for
him to dominate, after a year in which people began to question how good he
actually is. For the first time in a couple years there seems to be actual question about who the best quarterback in the league is, and Rodgers is in
the perfect position to remind people that he is head and shoulders above any
other passer.
With Jordy Nelson back he has the
down the field threat the Green Bay passing game was lacking this year, and things will
be easy again for him during the regular season. He’ll throw together 4500
yards and 40 touchdowns to go along with only 6 interceptions, adding in a few
highlight plays to keep things from getting boring. Worthy challengers like
Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger will have to battle reputations as second
tier passers (and in Roethlisberger’s case his own teammate Antonio Brown), and
Tom Brady will get only a brief mention after having to sit out the first four
games. Rodgers will run away with this one, as the Packers coast to the best
record in the league.
Other possibilities: Ben
Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Antonio Brown
Super Bowl
Seattle
Seahawks over Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ve dug myself some ugly holes
over the past couple years in the NFC. Two years ago I bought into the hype of
the Saints, picking them to reach the Super Bowl in a year that saw them win
seven games. Last year I at least hedged my pick of the Cowboys by saying that
it could fall to pieces if Romo got injured, but it still didn’t look great
when my Super Bowl pick ended up selecting in the top five of the draft.
So I’m playing it safe on that
side this year. Green Bay has the easiest road, and they are the favorite to
earn home field advantage in the playoffs. But home field is only worth so
much, and I don’t see the kind of depth on the Packers to compete with the more
complete Cardinals, Panthers, and Seahawks. And of those three teams, the one
that worries me the least is Seattle. They have been consistently great for
four years now, and Russell Wilson just keeps getting better. They’re less
fragile than the Cardinals, and they have fewer holes than the Panthers.
The AFC is the much more
interesting conference. Both conferences are extremely top heavy, but the AFC
is much thinner at the top. Where the NFC has four Super Bowl caliber teams
fighting for a spot, the AFC has only two. This opens things up for
inferior squads like San Diego, Cincinnati, or Indianapolis to sneak through in
the playoffs, but I’m still going to stick with Pittsburgh or New England. The
Patriots will be at full strength by the time the playoffs roll around, and
they’re probably the smarter choice. But Pittsburgh’s offense is just too
devastating, and if they can make it through the season intact I think they can
outgun the Patriots in a shootout and make it to the Super Bowl.
From there it’s a tossup, but I
think Seattle’s depth on defense would be enough to slow down the Steelers,
while their offense is perfectly set up to exploit the flaws of Pittsburgh’s
defense. Seattle won in a shootout during the regular season a year ago, and I
could see a similar game in the Super Bowl, a high scoring affair that will
come down to whichever side can make a defensive stop first.
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