2016 NFC East Preview

In maybe the most surprising outcome of the 2015 season, the Washington Redskins emerged as victors in the beleaguered NFC East. A division that was thought to be a battle between the Cowboys and the Eagles swung wide open when Dallas couldn’t stay healthy and Philadelphia turned out to not be good at football. And it was Kirk Cousins of all people who stepped forward to claim the division, leading the Redskins to a 9-7 record and a playoff berth.

The factors that left this division so wide open last year are what make it so difficult to predict this year. Will the Cowboys hold it together this year? Can the Eagles bounce back? Is Kirk Cousins the franchise quarterback he looked like down the stretch last year? Are the Giants relevant in any way, good or bad? I don’t have any answers, but if you keep reading I have plenty more wild speculation below.

Dallas Cowboys

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If Tony Romo stays healthy, the Cowboys are the best team in the division. If Tony Romo gets injured, the Cowboys are the worst team in the division. We all know how valuable a quarterback is, but the current Cowboys might be the starkest example of that in history. Never has a team been more dependent on the health of a single player, particularly a player as injury prone as Romo.

If Romo stays healthy, this could be a truly special offense. Their line is even better than it was when they rode it to a 12-4 record two years ago, and Ezekiel Elliott is a better runner than DeMarco Murray. This will be enough to propel them to victory in the NFC East, and if they can get some basic competence from their defense they can compete for a title. Everything depends on the health of Romo though, which leads to the next section.

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If Tony Romo goes down, the Cowboys are screwed. There’s really no other way to look at it. Dak Prescott has looked impressive in the preseason, and he might be able to handle things in spot duty for a game or two. But as we’ve seen over the past few years, this team is wholly dependent on Romo. On offense they simply don’t have the depth of targets to survive their quarterback to elevate the mediocre receiving corps around Dez Bryant, and the growth of the passing game over the past few years has meant that even an elite rushing attack like Dallas’s can’t keep up in a shootout.

If this team can’t be carried by an elite offense, they won’t compete with anyone. Their defense is as anonymous as any unit in the NFL, with only second year player Byron Jones even offering a spark of potential. This unit looks bound to finish near the bottom of the league, and I don’t even see a way to argue that they could exceed expectations. Dallas is a team with a low ceiling and an almost bottomless floor, and even if everything breaks right they still probably don’t have the depth to make a serious run.

Player to Watch: Alfred Morris, RB

I’m not sure I can think of a player in the league who is more disrespected than Morris. An afterthought in the free agent market, he signed with Dallas for two years and $3.5 million dollars, expecting to compete with Darren McFadden for the starting job. This, for a 27 year old runner who put up over a thousand yards in each of his first three seasons, including 1600 as a rookie. Last season was a letdown, but his résumé is that of one of the best running backs in the league, someone who should have drawn more attention in free agency than a less proven player like Lamar Miller.

Instead he signed as a backup for the Cowboys, who then went out and spent their first round pick on Elliott. I’m a huge fan of Elliott, and I think he’s the best runner on the team. But I’m not ready to write Morris off yet. His numbers were definitely inflated some by the system in Washington, but no system can make an average runner as good as he was. And behind Dallas’s offensive line, he could quite easily rejuvenate his career, knocking McFadden out of whatever role he’s going to have and pushing Elliott for playing time.

New York Giants

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Tom Coughlin was a quality coach, but sometimes a breath of fresh air is needed in an organization. The Giants had stagnated over the past few years, and even an interesting collection of talent wasn’t enough to turn them into a playoff team. The promotion of Ben McAdoo will change that, as will the big money additions on their defense. After years of watching their defensive line crumble piece by piece, they’ve restocked the strength of their Super Bowl team with a high upside pass rusher in Olivier Vernon and a powerful run stuffer in Damon Harrison.

Eli Manning has been all over the place throughout his career, but he has quietly been very good over the past two years, throwing for more than 30 touchdowns and 4000 yards in each of them while averaging less than one interception a game (good for him). They added another weapon in second round selection Sterling Shepard to complement Odell Beckham, and if he is as ready to contribute as most people believe he is, this could be a dangerous passing attack.

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The Giants spent a lot of money this offseason, but are we sure the players they signed are any good? Vernon had 7.5 sacks last year. Harrison plays quite possibly the least valuable position in the league. And Jenkins’s team had a chance to keep him but chose to use their franchise tag on a different cornerback instead. The pieces don’t necessarily fit together, and the Giants might very easily have blown more than $100 million in guaranteed money.

The Giants seem to be going all in on the next couple years, and that’s scary for a team with as many holes across their roster as the Giants do. They still haven’t found an answer on the offensive line, despite multiple first round picks spent to shore it up. Their running game might as well not exist, and they could have spent another $100 million without patching all the holes on their defense. This team could win the division if no one else steps forward, but even their best case scenario is probably capped at nine or ten wins.

Player to Watch: Shane Vereen, RB

Vereen does a lot of things well, but somehow it’s never enough to earn him a consistent role in an offense. After terrorizing defenses as a situational receiving back in New England, he came to the Giants expecting to play a major role in their offense. But in his first year with them he had only 120 touches, not even in the top fifty among all players in the league. And while he wasn’t as effective with those touches as was hoped, it’s still hard to justify the marginalization of a player this talented.

Coughlin is gone, and now that he’s the coach McAdoo might be able to exercise more creativity in the offense. Vereen has the ability to play anywhere on the field, from the backfield to the slot to spread wide. He’s a matchup nightmare for defenses, and his versatility could give the Giants the potential to play games with their personnel packages. This is of course dependent on whether or not McAdoo can recognize the unique talent he has, but if he can Vereen will be a special sort of nightmare for the rest of the NFC East.

 

Washington Redskins

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Washington won the division last year, and they are pretty much bringing back the same team. The only major change is an addition on the defensive side of the ball, bringing in All Pro cornerback Josh Norman to bolster their secondary, the weakest part of their team. They also added a pair of intriguing rookie talents in Josh Doctson and Kendall Fuller, both of whom could have immediate impacts (assuming Doctson gets healthy at some point).

The biggest reason for hope is the quarterback position. Kirk Cousins took a massive step forward last year, improving drastically as the season went along and giving them the freedom to part ways with Robert Griffin III. They locked Cousins down under the franchise tag, meaning he once again has to go out and prove himself. If he can improve on last season’s performance—or if he can simply match it—the Redskins can outpace the Giants and the Eagles and compete with the Cowboys for the division.

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Cousins showed what looked like signs of progress last year, but it’s just as likely that this was merely a brief hot stretch. For his career he still has an interception rate of 3.2 percent, a number matched by notoriously turnover prone quarterbacks like Eli Manning and Jay Cutler. Compared to the rest of his career last season looks like an outlier, and it wouldn’t be stunning to see him have a similar regression to Nick Foles in Philadelphia two years ago. The Redskins certainly believe this is a possibility as well, otherwise they would have locked him up to a longer term contract.

There are plenty of reasons for concern elsewhere on the roster. Their defense performed better than expected in 2015, but it was still below average overall, and outside of Norman and Ryan Kerrigan they have no proven high quality players. There are questions about Norman as well, after an unusually late breakout and his unceremonious departure from Carolina. This year will go a long way towards telling us how good he actually is as a player, and he could easily struggle when no longer supported by Carolina’s impressive defensive front.

Player to Watch: Preston Smith, OLB

A second round pick in 2015, Smith is another player to watch for a second year breakout. A freakish athlete with high potential, he had a surprisingly effective rookie season, putting up eight sacks and really turning it on down the stretch with five of those sacks coming in the final three weeks. That level of success will be difficult to keep up, but the Redskins are reasonably hoping he can bump it up to double digits this year.

Washington’s best defensive player has been Ryan Kerrigan for several years, and the pass rush remains their strength on that side of the ball. The emergence of Smith would make it even more dangerous, much as it was a couple years ago when they had Brian Orakpo on the side opposite Kerrigan. On a defense this short in talent, an elite pass rush can make a tremendous difference, possibly even raising them to a league average level.

Philadelphia Eagles

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The Eagles had a miserable season in 2015, but in the two years before that they won ten games both times. Much of the core of those teams remain on the roster, with stalwart veterans like Jason Peters and Connor Barwin being joined by emerging youngsters like Fletcher Cox and Jordan Matthews.

There are players to like on this roster, but where they could really take a step forward is at the quarterback position. The Eagles haven’t had a real answer at that position since Donovan McNabb was run out of town, but they have reason to hope they found it this year with second overall pick Carson Wentz. Wentz has been banged up this preseason, and he will not begin the season as the starter. But like all first round picks, he will get his shot this year, and with his talent he could boost this offense to new heights and possibly put Philadephia in contention for a playoff spot.

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The hopes in the previous section are contingent on a rookie quarterback contributing immediately after moving to the NFL from Division I-AA, so it shouldn’t be shocking that most people are skeptical. Aside from the names I listed above, the Eagles are still trying to rebuild their team after Chip Kelly’s overhaul two offseasons ago, and it will probably take some more time to work it out.

Unfortunately, time isn’t really something in Philadelphia’s favor. They need to find a way to add talent, and they need to do so without their first round pick in 2017 or their second round pick in 2018. They have limited assets to work with, and a cap situation that is among the worst in the league. The Eagles won’t just be bad this year. They’ll be bad for the next three years, and it will be some time before Wentz is ready to elevate a core this barren.

Player to Watch: Ryan Mathews, RB

Mathews doesn’t get nearly as much credit as he deserves. Injuries have held him back through his career, but when he has been on the field he’s been one of the most efficient runners in the league. For his career he has averaged 4.5 yards per carry, including 5.1 in a severely limited role last year. He was by far Philadelphia’s most effective back, and now he will have a chance to take on the lead role.

Can Mathews stay on the field? I don’t know. The only time he played a full 16 games was in 2013, when he ran for 1255 yards and played a major role in San Diego making it to the postseason. But on an offense that needs a lot to break right if they’re going to succeed, he is one piece that has the potential to elevate this unit above expectations.