I started my division preview
with the NFC South, a division that produced a Super Bowl representative last year. Now I move
across to the AFC, to a division that most certainly did not. The AFC South was
part of a pretty good contest last year with the NFC East for the worst
division in the league, and when the Texans did eventually emerge on top, they
didn’t last long in the postseason.
This is hardly a new phenomenon,
as the AFC South has been brutal for five years now. But after years on the
bottom, there is a lot of interesting young talent in this division. They
probably won’t be striking terror into anyone they face, but there are multiple
teams in this division that could make a run at the playoffs this year.
Indianapolis Colts
Half
Full:
The Colts were considered a Super
Bowl contender a year ago, before their season fell apart due to disappointing performances from their big money free agents and a series of injuries to their
quarterback. But Andrew Luck is back now, and even though he still doesn’t have
much around him, he’s good enough to carry this team on his own.
Prior to last year the Colts were
the class of the AFC South despite some occasional inconsistency from their
young quarterback. The division has gotten better, but there is still room for
Luck to grow. He has all the talent in the world, and if he can stay on the
field this could be the year that he takes the next step. If he can cut down on
the interceptions while continuing to make plays all over the field, the Colts
can run away with this division and possibly make another deep playoff run.
Half
Empty:
You’ll notice that the only name
I mentioned in the section above is Luck’s, which is a pretty good statement
about this Colts team as a whole. They have some other nice pieces like TY
Hilton and Vontae Davis, but outside of their quarterback they are severely
lacking in star power, and most of their roster is filled with barely capable
starters.
The Colts went 8-8 last year, but
they weren’t nearly that good. They were helped by a pathetically easy
schedule, and they won only a single game by more than seven points. They did
very little to improve themselves this offseason, and unless young players like
Phillip Dorset and Ryan Kelly provide a major impact, their ceiling is going to
be limited no matter how effective Luck is.
Player
to Watch: Frank Gore, RB
This is a break from my normal
pattern of picking relatively unknown players, and I’m mostly doing it because
I want to talk about Frank Gore. This past week I was idly browsing through
some stats, checking to see where Adrian Peterson is on the all time rushing
list as I do before every season. And while I was looking at that, I happened
to notice the name of one active player above him.
Gore is currently 15th
all time in career rushing yards. With 700 yards this year, he could pass
Thurman Thomas, Franco Harris, Marcus Allen, Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk,
Jim Brown, and Tony Dorsett. That is one hell of a list of names. I still think
Gore is a long shot for the Hall of Fame, particularly with only one 1250+
season and a single Second Team All-Pro appearance, but the conversation is
more interesting than a lot of people think, and will continue to get
interesting as he knocks more names off the list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Half
Full:
It isn’t hard to write this
section. I’m as high on Jacksonville as it is possible to be. There might not
be a team more stacked with young talent in the league, and after nearly a
decade of misery they look like they’re ready to leap forward. Allen Robinson
is a top ten receiver in the NFL, and Allen Hurns is an excellent second option
across the field. Weapons like Julius Thomas and Chris Ivory add depth and
versatility to their offense, and they’ve taken steps to improve their
offensive line over the past two offseasons.
Jacksonville’s offense is coming
up, but what could really put them over the top this year is their defense. The
unit has struggled over the past couple seasons, but fresh blood can
reinvigorate any defense, and no one is getting more fresh blood than
Jacksonville. After missing his entire rookie season, first round pick Dante
Fowler is ready to debut this year, joined by a pair of top five prospects in Jalen
Ramsey and Myles Jack. These are three of the five best defensive players to
enter the league over the past two years, all of them making their debuts in
Jacksonville. There will undoubtedly be a few bumps along the road, but if
Jacksonville can put it all together they can push for a playoff spot as early
as this year.
Half
Empty:
The Jaguars are going to be good
in the future, but there are still the questions of how long it will take and
how good they will be. For the first we look to the defense where, despite an
abundance of young talent, they really haven’t shown any improvement over Gus
Bradley’s tenure as head coach. The additions from the draft will definitely
bring a new element of athleticism to the field, but first year players are
rarely consistent, and it could take them a year or two to put things together.
Sooner or later Jacksonville will
have a top notch defense, but I’m not sure we can say the same about the
offense. The pieces are in place, but it all depends on the development of Blake
Bortles. And while he took a significant step forward in 2015, he still struggled with a lot of things, and he needs to show major improvement before he proves
to be the answer at the position. Much of the damage he did last year was in
blowouts when defenses started playing soft, and when he was truly pressed he
struggled. The Jaguars will be more competitive this year, and Bortles will be
asked to shoulder more responsibility. Whether he can handle this is the big
question going forward, and it will likely decide the fate of the Jaguars for
the next five years.
Player
to Watch: Telvin Smith, LB
I’ve mentioned the three top
notch defenders who will be premiering in 2016, and now it’s time to discuss
one who is entering his third season with a great deal of momentum. A fifth
round pick in 2014, Smith broke out as a full time starter last year, bringing
a flash of youth to a Jaguars defense in desperate need of it. He was solid
against the run and excellent against the pass, breaking up seven passes and
recording an interception.
Smith fits the mold of many of
the undervalued linebackers stolen in the later rounds of the draft. Weighing
only 218 pounds, he is smaller than just about any other linebacker you will
see, and in the past he would have been pushed around in the middle
of the field. But as offenses have shifted to playing more in space, players like Smith have
found a role. He has the sort of versatility that will make him a perfect fit
however they decide to build the linebacker corps around him, Jack, and Fowler,
and he will be in an even better position to make plays in 2016.
Houston Texans
Half
Full:
The Texans won the division last
year, and with several exciting young pieces on the roster they could be in
position to take the next step. JJ Watt is the best defensive player in the
league, and they finally appear to have talent around him. Benardrick McKinney
and Kevin Johnson didn’t do a lot during their rookie seasons, but they have
the ability to become key contributors in their second year. And Jadeveon
Clowney showed last year that, as long as he stays on the field, he can be the
same dominating force in the NFL that he was in college.
On the offensive side of the ball
they have DeAndre Hopkins plus two intriguing rookie wide receivers in Will
Fuller and Braxton Miller. Their passing attack is deeper and more versatile
than it was a year ago, and Brock Osweiler has the potential to bring the big
play to an offense that was a bit one dimensional a year ago. This team
probably won’t be pushing for a championship, but there is a good case to be
made for them as favorites in the division.
Half
Empty:
That case can only be made if you
think Osweiler is a step up at quarterback. Unfortunately, I do not. Brian
Hoyer wasn’t blowing anyone away last year, but he brought a level of
competence that I’m just not convinced Osweiler has. Seeing his first real
action last year, Osweiler completed 61 percent of his passes with 10
touchdowns to 6 interceptions. Those are decent numbers, but they oversell how
good he actually was. Peyton Manning wasn’t spectacular last year by any means,
but the switch to him was still a step up for Denver’s offense, and despite
what some people believe I sincerely doubt the Broncos could have won the Super
Bowl with Osweiler under center.
Chucking the ball up to Hopkins
will certainly help, but aside from that there are real questions about the
offense suiting up around him. Fuller and Miller are talented, but both will
likely require some work before they’re ready to contribute on the NFL level.
The offensive line is a work in progress, and I’m not convinced they’ll be able
to establish an effective running game (more on that below). The Texans clawed
their way to the top of a mediocre division a year ago, but with the other
teams improving they could easily slide back down towards the bottom.
Player
to Watch: Lamar Miller, RB
Probably this year’s leading
contender for “sleeper who is so overhyped that he stops being a sleeper”,
Miller is going to play a major role in the fate of Houston’s offense. After parting
ways with Arian Foster and realizing that Alfred Blue is not a capable NFL
starter, the Texans went out in free agency and signed Miller from Miami. In
four years Miller hasn’t even accomplished 3000 career rushing yards, but his
4.6 yards per carry average suggests this was more an issue of usage than actual
ability. After being held back in Miami for years, he has a chance to be the
centerpiece of an offense that will allow him to emerge as one of the league’s
best runners.
That’s the story that everyone is
telling, to the point that I’ve seen people ranking Miller as one of
the five best backs in the league heading into the season. And I’m just not
sold. Running back efficiency is a strange thing, and there are plenty of cases
of runners who weren’t able to sustain high per carry averages once they were
given more central roles (Michael Bush, Rashad Jennings, and CJ Spiller come to
mind). Miller has shown excellent explosiveness, rattling off 80 plus yard runs
in each of the past two seasons. But I’m not going to believe he can be an
every down four to five yard churner until I see it on a consistent basis.
Tennessee Titans
Half
Full:
Injuries derailed a promising
rookie season for Marcus Mariota, but he’ll be back at full health this year and ready
to take the league by storm. They have a lot of potential in their receiving
corps, and this could be the year that Kendall Wright and Dorial Green-Beckham
burst onto the scene.
There are still some kinks to
work out on the defensive side, but they’ve got a solid veteran presence that
should keep things from getting too ugly. This team won’t be shutting down
opposing offenses, but they can win in a shootout, with their explosive young
quarterback flashing the skills that made him the second overall pick one year
ago.
Half
Empty:
You have to give the Titans some
credit. It takes some true talent to screw up an offseason that was set up
perfectly for them to succeed. Finishing with the worst record in the league,
they did the smart thing and parted ways with Ken Whisenhunt, leaving them set
up in an almost perfect position. They had a talented young quarterback, which
gave them the freedom to do whatever they wanted with the first overall pick,
and a coaching vacancy to die for. And when they eventually did trade out of
their first selection, they got an impressive haul for it, setting themselves
up for a bright future.
Things could have gone so well
for Tennessee, and they completely screwed it up. They made the least inspiring
coaching hire I have ever seen in Mike Mularkey, beating out former holders of
the crown like the Titans hiring Ken Whisenhunt in 2014, or the Titans hiring
Mike Munchak in 2011. They then traded items of actual value for DeMarco
Murray’s mess of a contract, used the first round pick they got from the Rams
to slide up and grab an offensive tackle who can’t play in space, and doubled
down on their dung pile of a backfield by using a second round pick on Derrick
Henry, a running back who can’t change direction. The only thing bleaker than
this season for the Titans is the future beyond it, where their only hope is
wiping their roster clean within the next couple of years while there is still
something to salvage of Mariota.
Player
to Watch: Delanie Walker, TE
Walker is far from unheard of,
especially after putting up nearly 2000 receiving yards combined over the past
two seasons. But he remains an interesting questionmark on the Titans offense,
for several reasons. He’s been more than they could have hoped for over the
past two years, but there are reasons to be concerned about whether or not he
can repeat this performance.
The biggest question is his age.
At 32 years old, he is well past his athletic prime, and nature is bound to
catch up with him sooner or later. His game has never been about outrunning
people down the field, so there is some reason to believe he can hold up. But
the sort of late career bloom he’s seen over the past two years is incredibly
rare, particularly for someone who spent the first seven seasons in the league as
a blocking alternative to Vernon Davis. Two years of excellent production isn’t
the sort of thing we can idly dismiss, but I still have my doubts about whether
Walker can be that sort of weapon for Tennessee again.
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