Wednesday, September 27, 2017

The 10 Craziest Moments of NFL Week 3



After two weeks of mostly paint by numbers action, this week the NFL got fun. At times on Sunday it was almost impossible to keep up with everything that was happening, even with two TVs going and Twitter giving me constant live updates. In a week when everyone tuned in to watch a bunch of players listen to a song, we got some of the best football I’ve seen in years.

There was so much going on that I can barely remember it all. I certainly didn’t see everything, and I’m sure I missed or forgot several moments that would have been the highlights of any other weekend. But even so, there was enough craziness happening that I decided to count down the top ten most insane moments of this week in the NFL.

10) The Eagles win on a 61 yard field goal
I’m going to be honest. I completely missed this one when it happened. I had the Giants-Eagles game on my second TV, but I was so busy flipping between all the craziness happening in the other games that I didn’t realize what had happened here. In NFL history there have been only 16 field goals made from 60 or more yards out. This was only the third made to win the game on the last play. And it was done by a rookie kicker in his second career game, a player the Eagles had signed off the practice squad two weeks ago following an injury to their preferred kicker.

The circumstances around this kick are wild and would have been the lead story on any other weekend. The Giants stormed back from 14 points down to take the lead, only for the Eagles to tie it with less than a minute remaining. The Giants then got the ball back, and it looked like things were destined for overtime. With 19 seconds left they had the ball at their own 34, forced to punt with a punter who averages 40 net yards per punt for his career.

Think of everything that had to happen to set up this field goal. Brad Wing needed to shank a 28 yard punt to give the Eagles a chance. They still had to pick up 19 yards just to get into range for an insane field goal. Their coaches had to trust a rookie kicker, knowing that if he came up short Odell Beckham was waiting to return it, one of the most dynamic athletes in the NFL being chased by a bunch of linemen. All of that, and then he nailed the game winning kick, and it still barely cracks the top ten most absurd moments of the weekend.

9) Aaron Rodgers threw a pick-six
This doesn’t sound like a big deal, until you realize that this was only the second pick-six of Rodgers’s career. Rodgers has thrown 4791 passes since entering the league. In 2016 there were 34 pick-sixes on a total of 18,295 pass attempts, meaning that on average you’d expect Rodgers to have 9 pick-sixes. Even if you take into account the fact that Rodgers is the least interception prone quarterback in NFL history, on his 75 career interceptions you’d expect him to have 6 returned for touchdowns.

I don’t know if it’s a true skill or just a statistical quirk, but I know that on Sunday Rodgers doubled his career pick-six total. And before we move on, I just want to say a quick something about the player who scored the touchdown. William Jackson was one of my favorite players entering the draft a year ago, and after missing his entire rookie year he’s still working his way into Cincinnati’s rotation. But he is one of the few spots of bright young talent on this roster, and getting his name in as the second ever defensive player to score a touchdown off a Rodgers pass is certainly a way to announce himself.

8) Seattle’s offense found new lows
The best matchup of the weekend was ironically one of the least interesting games. There is a lot to say about Seattle’s offense, but I’ll let these two videos speak for themselves.



The Seahawks made some strides offensively against the Titans, but they still have a few hiccups to work out.

7) People actually enjoyed the Rams-49ers game
This goes back to Thursday night, but I think we should look back to remember how insane this game was. From the start this looked to be another classic Thursday night game, pitting two teams that no one really cares about in a game that would elicit nothing but groans and (misplaced) complaints about the quality of Thursday night games. Instead we got a 41-39 shootout that included a staggering comeback, great individual efforts, and a bizarre final minute.

Seriously, who expected that a game featuring Jared Goff and Brian Hoyer would end up with 80 points? Who thought the 49ers had any chance when they got the ball back with just over six minutes left trailing by 15 points? What were the odds that the Rams would fumble the ensuing kickoff, the 49ers would head down the field and score a touchdown, and then fail on the tying two point conversion? We all thought the game was over then, until Robbie Gould pulled off one of the finest onside kicks of all time. At that point we just assumed that the 49ers would get into field goal range and win it, only to be derailed by sensational plays from Mark Barron and Aaron Donald.

The Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers played in Week 3 on Thursday night, and it was one of the most entertaining games I have seen in a very long time.

6) Is Blake Bortles good in London?
I have to admit I wasn’t exactly looking forward to the 9:30 am clash between the Ravens and the Jaguars either, but this game kept me entertained in a completely different way from the one above. The Jaguars absolutely hammered the Ravens, winning by a 44-7 score that actually looks closer than the game was. And while most of the credit deserves to go to Jacksonville’s defense for annihilating the impotent Ravens offense, we kind of have to talk about Bortles as well.

Bortles had what was likely the best game of his career, completing nearly two thirds of his passes for 244 yards and four touchdowns with no sacks and no interceptions. This came against one of the league’s best defenses, a team that had intercepted opposing quarterbacks four times in each of their first two games. And the strangest part is, this is nothing new for Bortles. In London he averages 7.1 yards per attempt with 8 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. In the United States he averages 6.5 yards per attempt with 67 touchdowns against 51 interceptions. Most significantly, he is 3-1 in London and 10-34 in the United States.

Blake Bortles is a bad quarterback and the Jaguars should have moved on from him a long time ago. But is it possible he might be worth keeping around for that one game they play each year in London?

5) Unsportsmanlike Stars
There were three unsportsmanlike conduct penalties called this weekend on some of the league’s most notable stars. I’ll start in Seattle, with the penalty that was both the most deserved and the least fun. Richard Sherman was called for a fifteen yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for arguing a call with the referee, as Sherman is known to do.

This wasn’t extraordinary in and of itself, but the fact that this was Sherman’s third penalty on that play alone was certainly interesting. He was called for a pass interference for cutting off the route of a receiver, which led to a nullified interception. After the interception he was called for holding that same receiver, and when the referees threw the flags he was called for arguing. In total he gave the Titans 31 yards on that play, with another 10 yards wiped out because they came after the interception. And even after that he was lucky not to get another penalty, as he spent thirty seconds chasing the referees around the field yelling at them for their calls.

The next two penalties are a bit more light spirited. After knocking down Tyrod Taylor in the game between the Broncos and the Bills, Von Miller was courteous enough to offer a hand to help him up. Of course, when Taylor reached to take it, Miller pulled it back in the classic “too slow” maneuver. It was a lighthearted moment from one of the NFL’s most fun players. Miller laughed, Taylor laughed, and the referee threw a flag. Because referees are terrible people.

Finally, Odell Beckham. The NFL has greatly relaxed touchdown celebration rules this year, and it has led to a lot of lighthearted fun over the first three weeks. However, there are still some restrictions around celebrations that are considered too “crude”, such as Beckham’s celebration after his first touchdown.

Image result for odell beckham peeing

Yes, that it one of the best players in the NFL pretending to be a dog peeing on a fire hydrant. It cost the Giants fifteen yards, and it’s another notch to add to the people who continue to complain about Beckham. And while he certainly could stand to calm down at times, this has somehow been twisted into blaming him for all of New York’s woes.

Beckham is the absolute least of their problems. In fact, he might be the only part of their team that we can’t call a problem. Sure he cost them fifteen yards, but he was also the only reason they were in the game, with a pair of sensational touchdown catches to rally the Giants from a fourteen point deficit. And the same goes for Sherman and Miller as well. It’s unfortunate that they get these penalties, but they more than make up for it with their play on the field, and I would gladly trade fifteen yards a game for any one of these players.

4) Houston gives a win to New England
The Texans had a chance. In fact, they had a couple of chances. The first came with just over two minutes left in the game, when Houston had a two point lead. They also had the ball, facing a fourth and one on the New England 18 yardline. They were faced with the choice of whether to kick the field goal or go for the conversion, an understandably difficult decision. If they failed, they would be giving the ball back to Tom Brady with two and a half minutes and two timeouts, needing only a field goal to win the game. If they kicked the field goal they would force Brady to get a touchdown, a much greater challenge against a defense that had harassed him all day.

In almost any other situation I would have agreed with their decision to kick the field goal. But this isn’t any other situation. This is Tom Brady. And if I’m coaching against Brady, the number one thing I want to do is keep the ball out of his hands. If the Texans had picked up that first down, they likely would only have been able to run it down to two minutes before kicking the field goal, but they would have stripped New England of their last two timeouts. Still not great odds, but as a huge underdog they needed to be willing to take that risk.

The decision to kick was frustrating but understandable. The way they managed the clock after New England scored to take the lead was downright baffling. A touchback gave them possession at the 25 yardline with 23 seconds left and one timeout, needing a field goal to send the game to overtime. On the first play they completed a pass over the middle for 21 yards, setting themselves up for a couple more sideline routes to get within striking distance for their kicker.

Except they didn’t take a timeout. They just kind of stood there, let another fifteen seconds roll off the clock, and then used their last timeout. And with only three seconds remaining, their only hope was a Hail Mary that was intercepted to end the game.

Bill O’Brien remains a bad coach.

3) The New York Jets won a game
I don’t know if I can express how shocked I am. Naturally with everything else going on I watched very little of this game, so I can’t speak to how exactly it happened. And I was never a big fan of what the Dolphins put together coming into this season. But man, I did not expect the Jets to win this game. Or any game, really. I thought we’d spend most of the season wondering if they would push the 2008 Lions, watching them stumble around bouncing from incompetent quarterback to incompetent quarterback while providing an easy win every single week. And instead we’re three weeks into the season, there are five winless teams remaining, and the Jets are not one of them.

2) Everything that happened before the half in Chicago
Okay, so let’s run through what happened here. The Bears blocked a field goal on the last play of the half. It was picked up by cornerback Marcus Cooper, who outraced everyone on the field down to Pittsburgh’s five yardline. A touchdown seemed certain, until he inexplicably slowed to a walk and was caught from behind. The ball was knocked out of his hand at the one yardline and rolled into the endzone, where it was batted out of the field of play by Pittsburgh’s kicker. After a long conversation, the referees called a penalty for an illegal batting of the ball, giving the Bears an untimed down from the spot of the fumble. They proceeded to get called for a false start, which forced them to kick a 23 yard field goal.

Wow, that was a lot. And it honestly seemed like even more as I was watching it. The referees initially said the half was over, and the Steelers went into the locker room. The Bears and the announcers were wondering why it wasn’t a safety, and the referees had to call up New York to figure out what they were supposed to do. They then had to wait for the Steelers to run back out onto the field for the untimed down, stretching the whole thing more than ten minutes for what should have been a routine play.

The end result is, they got it right. It wasn’t a safety because the Steelers never possessed the ball, and it wasn’t a touchback because the Steelers batted it illegally. The Bears had a chance to score a touchdown and ended up having to settle for a field goal, but in a game that went to overtime this was a major difference maker.

The strange thing is that this play could have gotten even weirder. Pittsburgh’s kicker batted the ball away because it looked like the Bears were on the verge of recovering it for a touchdown, but by a strange technicality they actually wouldn’t have scored if they had recovered. In the final two minutes of the half, any fumble forward that is recovered by the possessing team is returned to the spot of the fumble. And if that had happened there would have been no penalty and no untimed down, costing the Bears a chance at any points. So in the end, the move to bat the ball actually cost the Steelers three points, and ultimately may have decided the game as well.

1) Time runs out on the Lions
I do kind of feel bad for Lions fans. Not the ones complaining they got screwed by the referees. They didn’t. Everything happened exactly as the rules said it should, and the rules are written in the fairest way possible. It’s just as close as I have ever seen a team come to winning a game, only to have it yanked away in the most anticlimactic fashion possible.

For those who didn’t see it, Detroit trailed by four points late in the fourth quarter when they received the ball at their own 11 yardline. They drove the length of the field to set up a third and goal from one yard out with 12 seconds left and no timeouts. They threw a slant pass to Golden Tate, and he fell forward across the goalline, signaled a touchdown on the field with eight seconds remaining.

The Lions celebrated what looked like a victory, until the reviews showed that Tate’s knee had come down with the ball still short of the goalline. And because he was stopped in the middle of the field, the clock would not normally have stopped on such a play. If the referees had called it correctly, the Lions would have had eight seconds to get the ball spotted, get lined up, get everyone set, and run a play. (Spiking wouldn’t have worked since it was fourth down.)

This is not impossible, but it is certainly hard to do, and for that reason the league has mandated that plays where the clock was erroneously stopped in the final two minutes come with a ten second runoff. With only eight seconds remaining, the game was declared over, and the Lions lost without even being able to watch the final seconds tick off.

This was another bizarre ending that required countless pieces to fall into place simultaneously. The Lions were in a position where a field goal would do them nothing and a touchdown would win them the game. The play was ruled a touchdown on the field when the receiver was down short. There were fewer than ten seconds left, and the Lions were out of timeouts, which meant there was nothing they could do as the game ended in front of them.

And this was happening at almost the exact same moment that the Eagles were kicking their winning 61 yard field goal, at almost the exact same moment the Steelers and Bears were headed into overtime, at almost the exact same moment Brady was leading the Patriots down the field. It was an absolutely insane stretch of games, the most exciting and most bizarre NFL weekend I can remember in a long time.

Friday, September 22, 2017

Offensive Offenses



Image result for russell wilson sack

We are through the first two weeks of the NFL season, and some trends are starting to emerge. The AFC West is really good. The Colts literally do not have a single good player outside Andrew Luck. And the Jets are an absolute abomination (though I guess we knew that one before the season started).

But one of the clearest trends across the league has been the struggles of offenses. Through the first two weeks teams are averaging 20.2 points per game, more than a 10 percent drop from last year’s average through two weeks of 22.5. Two points a game doesn’t sound like a big deal, but it is clear from watching a number of teams that something is very wrong with offenses across the league.

If you look towards the bottom of the league in points scored, you see some expected teams. Everybody knew the 49ers were going to tear things down (this was written before they put up 39 points on Thursday, but I’m going to stick with it), and the mess that Bill O’Brien has made of the quarterback position makes it unsurprising to see the Texans near the bottom as well. But it does raise some eyebrows to see the Bengals, Giants, and Seahawks rounding out the bottom five, three teams with recent playoff experience and proven quarterbacks under center.

There is a very clear thread that connects these three teams, one that is fairly obvious to anyone who pays much attention to the NFL. Coming into the season we knew that all three would struggle along the offensive lines, and so far our expectations have been met. The Bengals lost two big money veterans to free agency. The Giants are trotting out a human revolving door at left tackle. And the Seahawks are sticking to the same flawed philosophy they’ve failed with for years, that they can plug any big athlete in along the line and let Tom Cable coach them into actual NFL players.

None of this is news, and neither is the drop in offensive line quality across the league. Even scanning farther up the list we can find offenses that have struggled this year because of troubles on the offensive line. Carolina won their first two games, but they did so in thoroughly unimpressive style. The Cardinals can’t keep their veteran quarterback upright long enough to take the deep shots their offense is built around. And even Green Bay, with the best quarterback in the league, struggled to move the ball against a mediocre Falcons defense after losing their two starting tackles.

Never before have we seen so clearly how much the lack of an offensive line can disrupt a quarterback. Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Cam Newton are all top ten quarterbacks in the league. Carson Palmer and Eli Manning are competent starters, and Andy Dalton has played in the NFL for six years. And yet, in an era that is supposed to be defined by quarterbacks, these teams are consistently failing to move the ball.

The offensive line woes in the league have become extremely apparent this year, but this is a story that has been developing for the past several seasons. Offensive line play has been trending downhill, and most of the blame has gone (deservedly so) to the college system.

NFL offenses have become significantly more spread out over the past ten years, but they still hold nothing on the college game. Almost every college team runs almost exclusively from the spread formation, with receivers stretching sideline to sideline and the quarterback taking the snap from shotgun. Offensive linemen line up with wide splits standing in two point stances, trained to move side to side more than down the field. Blocking in college football has become less about moving someone to somewhere else and more about letting their motion carry them out of the play while the running backs and quarterbacks move into the open space.

The NFL’s adoption of the spread has been slower and more muted, and even advanced spread teams still ask much more from their offensive linemen than any college system. Where college teams tore up the playbooks and rebuilt them from scratch, NFL teams have simply tried to adjust the same things they’ve always done to fit into a spread template.

Offensive linemen are coming into the NFL less prepared than ever to play the position, and the problem has only be exacerbated by the explosion in defensive line talent. As the passing game has become the dominant means of moving the ball, the ability to pressure the quarterback has become much more valuable. The highest paid players on defense are along the line, and now the dominant young athletes gravitate towards these positions. Throughout NFL history the standard template has been to play a couple of pass rushing ends with a pair of run stuffing tackles, but over the past few years the ability to stop up the middle has been sacrificed for athletic penetrators who can disrupt the passer.

The role of the offensive line has changed in the NFL, and the talent has not kept up with it. The simple, unavoidable fact is that there aren’t enough NFL caliber offensive linemen making their way through the college system. And with NFL practice limited by the most recent CBA, it has become very difficult to shape raw athletes like Greg Robinson and Ereck Flowers into capable NFL players.

The lack of line talent is a serious issue the NFL is going to have to face, and I can see a few possible solutions to it. Some of these are more useful to the teams involved than others (and of course the solution for a team like Green Bay is just to get healthy). And there are obvious drawbacks with each of these options, but when the current strategies keep failing it becomes a necessity to try something new.

Option 1: Invest
This seems like the most obvious answer, but it has also proven to be the most effective. NFL teams have finite resources, and it’s up to them where to target these resources on their roster. Seattle is the perfect example of a franchise that has built up the rest of their team at the expense of their offensive line. They are the only team spending less than 10 percent of the salary cap on offensive line, and that is actually a significant jump from last year, when their offensive line spending was less than half of the next lowest team.

If you look on the other end of that chart, you will see that the most expensive line in the league belongs to Oakland, who spends more than 26 percent of the salary cap on the offensive line. Not coincidentally, Oakland also leads the league with 71 points scored over the first two weeks.

Oakland’s offensive line splurge began in 2015 when they brought center Rodney Hudson over from division rival Kansas City with a 5 year contract worth $44.5 million. They went even bigger the next year, giving the biggest contract of all time to an offensive guard with 5 years and $55.8 million to Kelechi Osemele. And then for good measure, this past offseason they extended guard Gabe Jackson for 5 years and $55 million.

Oakland gave a lot of money to Derek Carr, but after him the next three highest paid players on their team are their three interior linemen. In a league where quality offensive linemen are a rare commodity, the ability to own three top notch players carries extra value. The same thing can be seen with the draft picks invested by Dallas and Tennessee. The Cowboys have three first round picks starting on their offensive line, plus a fourth player who was a first rounder on talent. The Titans don’t have the same success rate as the Cowboys, but they have spent three top-11 picks on offensive linemen in the past five drafts, two of which are now starting at tackle.

It seems obvious to just throw money and draft picks at the problem, but of course it isn’t that simple. Between 2013 and 2015 the Giants spent two first round picks and a second round pick on offensive linemen, and it hasn’t saved them from being a disaster in pass protection. The Bengals tried as well, knowing their veterans would be moving on and spending their first two picks in 2015 on linemen. But both Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher have been disappointments to begin their careers, and there is little reason to believe they will turn things around.

And while the Raiders did a good job throwing this money out before other teams realized that linemen are now so thin in supply, the financials around free agent linemen have changed over the past couple years. Matt Kalil got $55 million from Carolina this year, and so far he has been the biggest problem along their offensive line. The market for offensive line talent is a sellers’ market right now, and unless a team is overwhelmed with cap space like Cleveland, they simply will not be able to compete.

Option 2: Wait it Out
This obviously isn’t a great solution for teams like the Seahawks and Panthers, with franchise quarterbacks and a championship window. It’s not great either for the Giants or the Cardinals, two teams trying to find one last run with their aging quarterbacks. But for the league as a whole, predictions of the death of the offensive lineman may prove premature.

There is an inherent cyclicality to positional scarcity in the NFL. Every few years we hear a similar story, about how the league is facing a serious shortage of talent at a specific position. In recent memory we heard all about how the running game was disappearing, and how the rise of the passing game had brought an end to the feature back.

So what happened? Have we found ourselves out of running backs? No, we haven’t. In fact, we are seeing one of the best groups of young running backs in NFL history. The passing game changed the way that running backs are used, and it made it harder to just line up in I-formation and pound the ball downhill. Running backs who fit that style slowly faded from the league, and the young players who had been raised their entire lives to play with this style found themselves without a role.

Young athletes are smarter than we give them credit for. They saw the way the league was trending, and they adapted. We may have seen the last of players like Adrian Peterson, Shaun Alexander, and Jerome Bettis, but in their place we have ended up with players like Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott. Young running backs saw the way the league was shifting, and they developed their skills to match the new demands of the NFL. The backs coming into the league these days are all comfortable as receivers, and many have worked hard to excel in pass blocking as well.

The same thing is going to happen on the offensive line. It may not be as much of a stylistic change as it is a shift in priorities, almost an unwinding of the trend we’ve seen of big athletes moving to the defensive side of the ball. NFL prospects are very aware of who is getting paid what in the league, and with the contracts handed out to offensive linemen over the past couple years, that position has become a lot more appealing. Now when a 6-6 270 pound high schooler starts looking at colleges, he’ll make up his mind that he wants to play offensive tackle, rather than trying his hand rushing the passer.

The talent pool has run a little dry among offensive linemen, but it isn’t going to last. Five or ten years down the road the league will be flush with spectacular athletes lining up to protect the quarterback, and we’ll find a new position to fret over. In the long run, everything will work out. Of course, that doesn’t help the teams right now stuck with miserable talent. Which brings us to the last and best option.

Option 3: Adapt
NFL coaches are some of the most stubborn men in the world. Every one of them believes that they are smarter than everybody else around them, and they all know that their system is responsible for getting them where they are. And so they are going to stick with their system, and if it fails it’s because the players are not executing their plans properly.

Change comes much faster to college football than to the NFL. Part of it is the turnover of the players. College teams lose half their starters every year, and they never stick with anyone longer than four seasons. NFL teams can have the same quarterback for more than ten years, and it’s harder to change things with an established veteran running the offense. So even as NFL offenses have spread out, they’re still running the same route combinations and asking their quarterbacks to make the same reads.

This has worked for the NFL for close to a decade now, but we may be reaching a breaking point. As more players enter the league from these spread attacks in college, the league is going to have to adopt even more of those schemes as well.

If Oakland is a perfect example of investing in their offensive line, then their division rivals in Kansas City are a great example of a team adapting to fit their new talent. The Chiefs are better on the offensive line than most of the other teams we’ve talked about, but given the talent on this offense it is shocking that they’re the second highest scoring team through two weeks. And most of the credit for that goes to their head coach Andy Reid, who has drastically shifted his offense in the offseason to embrace the college style.

Kansas City’s offense looks nothing like any other in the league. Every play comes with extensive motion before the snap, slot receivers running back and forth down the line to knock the defense off balance. The Chiefs have taken Reid’s West Coast NFL offense and added college flairs like jet sweeps, read options, and multiple fakes. Defenses will begin to adjust, but for now there is little they can do, and it’s possible that Kansas City can sustain this level of performance.

For teams like Seattle, Carolina, and New York with hopes to compete this year, this is the best solution to fix their offensive line woes on the fly. But just because it’s the best option, that doesn’t make it a good option. Because to make this college style work they need talent on the rest of their offense, talent they may not have.

Seattle and Carolina face a challenge in that their offenses are just as barren on the outside as they are in the middle. Both teams have built their entire offensive systems around attacking deep down the field, and that extends to the talent at receiver as well as their strong armed quarterbacks. The best way to compensate for a weak offensive line is to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands before the pass rush can close in, but that only works if the quarterback can find an open receiver before the ball is even snapped. And that requires a quarterback to trust that his receivers can win against man to man coverage, a risky prospect for teams throwing to Kelvin Benjamin and Paul Richardson.

The problem is on the other end of the equation in New York. Odell Beckham and Sterling Shephard can win off the snap of the ball, but Eli Manning is part of the old school quarterback style that doesn’t fit well with modern NFL schemes. The Giants run three receivers as much as anyone, but their route combinations require the quarterback to hold the ball three or four seconds to get his receivers open, time the offensive line is not capable of providing. The Giants can try to adjust, and they have made some progress since Ben McAdoo took over their offense. But there may be only so far that they can go with these changes playing Manning at quarterback.

I don’t know what the answer is for New York, but there may be hope for Seattle and Carolina if they are willing to embrace the college style in the running game. Newton and Wilson are two of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league, and they can slow down pass rushes with even more designed runs and read options. Both quarterbacks are struggling with injuries, so their teams want to protect them, but at this point they may not have any other options.