2021 Wide Receiver and Tight End Prospects

The NFL Draft is now just over four weeks away, so it’s time to take a deeper dive into this year’s top prospects. Today we’ll start with the wide receivers and tight ends, probably the most exciting position group in this year’s class. Last year’s receiver class had an immediate impact on the NFL, and while this year’s group may not be as deep, the players at the top are even more talented.

As a refresher, here’s how my process works. I watch three games of each player, usually from their final season of college football. This year added a wrinkle with a number of players choosing to opt out of the season, but for the most part that didn’t affect my evaluations. We also didn't have an actual Combine this year, which means for most athletic testing we will be relying on Pro Day numbers that may not be quite as accurate. So I'll probably be putting more emphasis on film this year than in the past, since that's one thing we can still count on.

Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

I watched a lot of Alabama’s offense a year ago while scouting Tua Tagovailoa, Henry Ruggs, and Jerry Jeudy, and my biggest takeaway at the time was that Devonta Smith was their best player. I didn’t really understand why he came back for another year at Alabama, but I doubt he regrets it after putting together maybe the most impressive season by a wide receiver in college football history. He shattered records, won a Heisman, and expanded his game to the point that he is by a comfortable margin the best receiver prospect I have every scouted.

Any criticisms I can try to make about Smith are really just picking nits. His top end speed is simply “fast” rather than “extremely fast”, and he makes up for it by reaching that speed far quicker than most receivers. He doesn’t have the electric change of direction ability of someone like Jeudy or a couple of the other receivers listed below, but he’s still good enough to leave cornerbacks in the dust as a route runner. The biggest concern might be his size. He has good height at 6-2, but he weighs only about 170 pounds, and when cornerbacks can get their hands on him, his lanky frame makes a big, soft target that can lead to him being stopped in his tracks. Defenses will try to press him at every opportunity in the NFL, and while his release off the line is good enough that they won’t be able to shut him down, elite cornerbacks might be able to give him a few headaches.

But aside from that, Smith does everything I would want from a receiver. Simply put, he is not someone who can be covered. He has so many tools in his bag to help him get open. He sells all his fakes with his full body before flipping his hips around faster than any defender can match. He’s very good at using subtle physicality, leaning into a defender with his body to widen him and push him off balance before breaking back across the middle. And when the ball is in the air, he attacks it as well as any receiver I’ve ever seen. He comes back to beat cornerbacks breaking on the football, he goes up to get passes that look like they’re headed well over his head, and he can fight through contact to make difficult catches. In short, he is a perfect receiver prospect when it comes to skill, who may only be limited by physical tools that are merely very good for an NFL receiver.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

If you want to fall in love with physical tools, Pitts is the prospect for you. He’s 6-6 and 240 pounds, with the speed to threaten defenses down the field and the quickness in space to cause headaches for any bigger defenders that try to track him. He absorbs contact on his routes like it isn’t there, and he plays with excellent balance so he’s always ready to twist himself to make a difficult catch. His catch radius is huge, and he’ll be a best friend to any quarterback he plays with.

There have been some people who have suggested he should move full-time to wide receiver, and he certainly has the skills to back that up. His route tree isn’t as fully developed as most wide receivers, and routes that require sharp change of direction may be asking too much of him. But as we’ve seen these past couple years with DK Metcalf, there are ways to use receivers with dominant size-speed combinations and limited agility. Pitts isn’t as fast as Metcalf, but he’s even bigger, and better at high-pointing balls and making catches in traffic.

If he was just a receiver, I think Pitts would still be worth a pick in the top half of the first round. But his versatility is what really sets him apart and makes him worth a top five selection. He isn’t overwhelmingly dominant as a blocker like George Kittle or Rob Gronkowski, but he’s better than people give him credit for. Most importantly, he gives his full effort on every block. He loves fighting in the trenches, and when he gets a good matchup he has the tools to absolutely bury a defender. He’s average in the running game, and with his receiving skills that is frankly all you need. There is no position in the league with a wider gap between the elite players and the rest of the field as tight end, and having a game-changing player at this position is something only three or four offenses in the league can boast. Within a year or two though, whoever drafts Pitts will be able to count themselves among that small group as well.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Chase is the first of several prospects I’ll get to this year who elected to opt out of the 2020 season. For some I might be a little more wary at the limited film availability, but for Chase it doesn’t concern me at all. He showed everything he needed to show in 2019 as the top receiver on one of the most dominant offenses in college football history. He was physically overwhelming as a 19 year old sophomore, and I doubt anything he did during his junior year would have changed the story on him.

Chase is about the same height as Smith, but the difference between their bodies seems even more than the 30 pounds listed on paper. Chase is simply thick, and his entire game is built around his physicality. He outmuscles defenders consistently at the point of the catch, with excellent body control to twist through contact and snag the ball out of the air at the last second. And when he has the ball in his hands, he is a nightmare to bring down, battering his way through the secondary to pick up extra yards.

The physicality makes him interesting when he faces press coverage. He doesn’t have much lateral quickness off the snap, and this means that more often than not a pressing defender will get his hands on him. This does cause occasional issues, holding him up for a second to prevent him from getting out on his route. But Chase had a broad set of tools for disengaging from a jam, and with his strength there’s really no way a cornerback can remain locked on him for the duration of the play. And when he does break free, he remains on balance and under control enough to toss the cornerback to the side and explode past him down the field for instant separation.

Strength and physicality are at the heart of Chase’s game, but he’s more than just some burly possession receiver. His top end speed is good as well, and like Smith he has exceptional first step burst. He didn’t run the widest variety of routes at LSU, but he looks like he has the flexibility to develop as a route runner in the NFL. He just turned 21 less than a month ago, and he has tons of room to develop still. I’d still take the more polished Smith ahead of him, but I can understand a team falling in love with Chase’s tools and taking the receiver with the almost unlimited upside.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Every year there is one receiver prospect whose defining attribute is his speed, and every year I find myself lower on this player than the NFL. Many have Waddle as a potential top ten selection, some even ranking him ahead of his teammate Smith because of his superior physical tools.

In this case, I can almost see what they’re talking about. Waddle is more than just a straight-line deep threat. He’s electric with the ball in his hands as well, with single-step bursts that let him slip through a defense like water through a grate. He’s capable of making spectacular leaping catches as well, going over top of defenders and fighting the ball away from them. He’s probably the most physically gifted pure receiver in this class, and it isn’t out of the question that he could end up the best when all is said and done.

There are just too many holes in his game as I see it now for me to take him in the first half of the first round. While he can make some spectacular catches outside his frame, he is weirdly inconsistent, also letting some mildly challenging but catchable passes bounce off his hands. He doesn’t do as much as a route runner as his physical tools would suggest he’s capable of. Where good route runners like Smith and Chase know how to vary their pace to set up their routes, Waddle is going full speed at pretty much all times, which makes it a lot easier for cornerbacks to guess where he’s going to negate some of his speed.

Waddle will have to come along slowly in the NFL. He’ll have a role right away as a deep threat who gets a couple short targets each game, but for the most part defenses shouldn’t have a problem adjusting to handle him. He struggles with physicality, and he is going to have to learn to apply his quickness at the line in order to get into his route. Three or four years down the road I could see him emerging as one of the best receivers in the league, but in this draft I’d still prefer one of the surer options on the board.

Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

You can’t discuss Moore without addressing the injury issue. After a sensational freshman season, he was expected to dominate college football and potentially compete for a Heisman over the next two years. Instead he played a total of seven games over his final two seasons, held back by a series of nagging hamstring injuries. He was still dynamic when he was on the field, but it’s always a red flag when a player has barely played football in two years.

It’s hard to say how much these injuries limited Moore’s development. He remains a truly special athlete, with very little polish as an actual wide receiver. Every year there are two or three players across all positions who just visibly move differently on the field than anyone around them, and Moore is one of those players. His ability to stop and start in space is freakish, and his acceleration through gaps seems to break defender’s brains and leave them sprinting at a nonsensical angle behind him. Get him the ball in space, and good things are going to happen.

If he’d been available more frequently, maybe Purdue would have found a way to better integrate him with their offense. But for the most part in the games I watched, his role existed solely on plays that were designed to go to him. Screens, sweeps, and end arounds, mostly stuff to get him moving laterally rather than working down the field.

That said, the few plays they did target him on traditional routes he showed enough promise for me to take a flyer—with all the risks involved—on drafting him at the end of the first round. His agility translates at times to his route running, where he makes sharp breaks that very few cornerbacks can keep up with. He tracks the ball well in the air and can make catches outside his frame, though he will also drop easy catches every now and then.

He has plenty of ability to grow as a pure receiver, and the biggest question I have is whether he can stretch defenses down the field, a strange thing to ask about someone who was timed at 4.29 in the forty. But as good as his initial burst is, his speed never really showed up with the ability to separate over the top. Defenses were comfortable playing him right at the line of scrimmage, and while he's quick enough to evade press coverage, I really would like to see him develop the skills to force defenses to give him space to work his magic underneath.

Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

Marshall is the sort of receiver who is both easy and difficult to pin down. On the one hand, we know exactly what he’s going to be in the NFL. He’ll be a solid number two receiver, someone who can put up big numbers as one piece of a solid passing attack but will struggle if too much of the defense’s attention goes to him. I don’t think there’s a lot of upside here, but he should be able to transition rather smoothly into an immediate role in the NFL. The hard part is putting a value to this. Is a receiver with this limited ceiling worth a first round pick, or would he be a better fit early in the second round?

Marshall has the speed to win over the top, but he isn’t in the elite category of fast where defenses have to shift their scheme to account for him. If his only tool was speed, it wouldn’t be enough to win on its own. He helps himself by being an accomplished route runner underneath. He doesn’t make a lot of sharp cuts, but he varies his speed well over the course of his route, and he absorbs physicality well enough to make the windows around him bigger than they appear.

One big concern with Marshall is drops. He’s good for about one drop a game, which isn’t great but also isn’t likely to kill his career. This does mean he will probably have to work on his concentration at the catch point, which means he won’t be able to transition as smoothly to running after the catch, already not a particularly strong point for him. He’s probably best suited working the sidelines, where his speed can isolate cornerbacks on an island and his strength and length can give the quarterback options to target his back shoulder. He’ll have a role in the NFL, even if he will likely never be a star.

Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

Get the ball in Toney’s hands, and good things are going to happen. He’s one of the most difficult players in this class to take down, with just about every tool you would look for in a ball carrier. He’s quick enough to make people miss in space. He has the strength and balance to bounce off of tackles and drive forward for extra yards. He has the instincts of a running back, and if you wanted to you could probably even line him up in the backfield.

The question with Toney is, how much work do you have to do to get him the ball? Can he slide right into any offensive scheme, or does he need plays designed with him as the sole target? He struggles sometimes to win the way conventional receivers win. He isn’t big, and he doesn’t go outside his frame to make catches, or fight through contact to get to the ball. As a route runner he shows momentary flashes of quick cuts that leave a defender stumbling behind him, but his route tree is limited and he will need to do a lot of development in that area in the next level. He has enough speed to occasionally separate over the top, but he isn’t an elite speed threat that will force defenses to bend to account for this threat.

There are ways for Toney to contribute right away. Whoever drafts him should immediately slot him in as their primary returner on punts and kickoffs. A package of screens and sweeps to get the ball in his hands could work too, though if he doesn’t have a more developed role in the offense you run the risk of defenses keying on that. He certainly has the tools to develop into an elite route runner, but he is a long way from being where he needs to be there. And even if he does, I feel like his limitations may prevent him from ever being more than just a really good slot receiver.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

Almost everything I said above about Marshall can be applied to Bateman, except the part about him being fast. Of all the players in this year’s class, Bateman might be the one I most wish we had an actual Combine to use to evaluate him. Sometimes he seems to have decent burst off the ball, but he never really runs away from defenders, relying on route running and physicality to get open instead. It seemed to work at the college level, but for NFL wide receivers there is a certain base level of speed that is required to be able to break away from coverage. I think Bateman meets this threshold, but I wish we had some reliable numbers to back this up.

Bateman does plenty of good stuff on the field. He’s an advanced route runner with a good feel for how to find holes in zones and how to use the small bursts he has to get open. He doesn’t make sharp cuts, but he makes well timed cuts. He can work in the slot or on the outside, and he attacks every zone of the field, from intermediate crossing routes to deep shots down the sideline. He isn’t going to do anything ridiculous after the catch, but he’s smart enough to pick up what he can and not get in trouble trying to get more.

At the catch point he has some similar issues with converting routine catches that Marshall does, but he plays with more physicality. He isn’t at Smith or Chase levels when it comes to winning the ball when it’s in the air, but he’s probably the next best in the class. He does a very good job attacking the ball when it’s in the air, routinely coming back to undercut a cornerback who thinks he has an easy interception. But he isn’t so overwhelming that he can fight off two defenders for a ball in the air, which means that schemes keying towards him can more or less erase him from a game. As a secondary option he could be a real headache for opposing defenses. As a primary option, I don’t know if he has the pure explosiveness to make it work.

Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

Moore is another good slot receiver without much upside to be anything more. He doesn’t have the agility or burst of players like Moore or Toney, but right now he’s better as an all around receiver. He doesn’t do much as a route runner, but he has a very good feel for finding open space, especially when the play breaks down. And his hands are sensational, grabbing pretty much any ball that comes within reach.

Moore tested extremely well, but on the field he isn’t particularly fast or quick. He doesn’t make people miss when he has the ball in his hands, and he doesn’t separate over the top when he runs deep. But he’s built firm, and he has the ability to power through contact both during the route and after he makes the catch. I didn’t see him have many contested catch opportunities, but the way he attacks the ball in the air and the strength he plays with make me think he could be effective when he does get these opportunities in the NFL.

Capable slot receivers are fairly cheap to acquire in the NFL, and without the game-breaking athletic potential of someone like Moore or Toney, I’m not really sure how much Moore is worth. There’s certainly a place for him in the NFL, but the best place for him may be as a high value third round selection as the third or fourth piece in a passing attack.