Potential Draft Trades

We are only nine days away from the NFL Draft, and the frantic hypotheticals are beginning to get out of control. Teams are blowing smoke in all directions, and each day seems to bring more rumors of trades and likely picks. I don’t know what is going to happen—nobody knows what is going to happen—but that has never stopped anyone from writing about it. Next week I will provide a couple of mock drafts, but for now I will focus on the potential trades we could see in the draft.

1) Houston Texans

The Texans would be perfectly happy to stay in the top spot, but they are open to shopping around their valuable position. Right now it appears that they are set to make a choice between Blake Bortles and Jadeveon Clowney, but they don’t appear to see much of a drop off between them and the next tier of prospects. They would be perfectly content drafting someone like Khalil Mack or Jake Matthews if they could get something to drop a couple spots.

The most commonly suggested trade partner is Atlanta (who I will get to later) at number six. This might be further than the Texans are willing to drop, as it would almost definitely put them out of contention for Mack and possibly Bortles as well. They would have to make this trade before the draft and would be subject to the uncertainty of the four picks between number one and number six. This is as far as I would expect them to be willing to drop, and I suspect they would only do so if they receive a future first round pick.

2) St. Louis Rams

The Rams really don’t want to be at number two. They aren’t interested in taking a quarterback, and pass rusher is the one position where they are truly set. I’ve seen rumors that they would consider pursuing Sammy Watkins, but after spending high draft picks on wide receivers the past two years I don’t think they will go that route. If they stay I expect them to take an offensive tackle, likely Greg Robinson.

But if a trade partner appears, they would be much more interested in moving down than the Texans. If Houston selects Bortles then suddenly they are in control of the Clowney pick, and they will have several suitors trying to jump up to get him. They would take this opportunity to fall back to a position where they can better address their needs. A trade with Atlanta would likely leave them in position to grab either Matthews or Taylor Lewan at the tackle position or to address one of the other, more pressing holes on the defensive side of the ball.

5) Oakland Raiders

The Raiders traded out of the top five last season, and they are looking to do so again this year. They understand as well as anyone that they have the most talent barren team in the league, and they see more value in accumulating a large quantity of young players than grabbing a single player with superstar potential. Reports also suggest that they are high on players like Lewan and Derek Carr, both of whom will be available later in the first round. Rather than reach as they have done in the past, they will try to move down into a position more suited to these players’ talent levels.

With the fifth pick they will not get as much interest as the Rams or the Texans, but they will find teams willing to jump up if certain players fall to them. If either Mack or Watkins is available, someone from the middle of the draft will leap at the opportunity to grab an elite talent at a bargain. A similar deal last year netted the Raiders a first and a second round pick, and they should be able to get more this year with better talent available. They can turn this pick into three or four talented players and begin to rebuild the core of their roster.

6) Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons-Texans trade is the hottest current topic in the league. Atlanta is absolutely in love with Clowney, and he fits a major need for their team. They are too low in the draft to have a real shot at Mack, and if they stay in place they will either have to reach for Anthony Barr as a pass rusher or settle for filling their second biggest need at offensive tackle. It would cost a lot to move into the first or the second slot, but their front office showed with the Julio Jones decision in 2011 that they are willing to be aggressive.

This is the issue that needs addressed. The trade for Jones netted them a great player, but it came at the expense of overall team depth. They gave up five picks (two firsts, a second, and two fourths) to get one player, costing them likely two starters and three role players. It worked at first, but it came back to bite them last season when injuries forced them to turn to undrafted free agents at multiple starting positions. Their collapse last season can be directly traced to the trade for Jones, and I think it would be a mistake for them to sacrifice multiple picks in this draft when they are already stretched so thin.

8) Minnesota Vikings

I have devoted more time and thought to what the Vikings will do in this draft, and I still have absolutely no idea which direction they will go. Their most pressing need is at quarterback, but they appear to be content to wait until the second round if Bortles doesn’t fall to them. If they don’t take a quarterback they will go defense, but they aren’t in a great position to fill any of their needs on that side of the ball. The money they have invested in their defensive front makes me skeptical that they will grab someone like Anthony Barr or Aaron Donald, but they are too high in the draft to take a safety, inside linebacker, or cornerback.

The most obvious solution is to trade down. If someone in the mid-teens was truly intrigued by one of the top prospects still available, the Vikings could grab some extra picks and slide down while still being in position to grab a player like CJ Mosley or Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. After giving up multiple picks in order to move back into the first round the past two years, they would be smart to accumulate as many selections this year as possible.

Another possibility would be for them to move up. If Bortles slides past the first few picks, the Vikings will try to call up a team like the Rams or the Raiders to see about moving ahead to grab him before someone else can. I haven’t heard much on what the Vikings’ staff thinks of Bortles, but based on his skillset he would be the ideal quarterback for offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s system. They may hold out in the hope that he could slide all the way to number eight, but the team has shown willingness to be aggressive in the past couple years.

10) Detroit Lions

The Lions are reportedly interested in moving up in the draft, and I really don’t understand it. Rumor has it that they are highly interested in Watkins and that they believe he would be the perfect complement to Calvin Johnson. While I am a big fan of Watkins, I don’t think it is in the best interest of Detroit to go after him.

The Lions have a lot of holes on their team, and like the Falcons they would have to sacrifice filling several of these holes in order to move up in the draft. Of these needs, a second receiver opposite Johnson is nowhere near the most significant of them. They already paid Golden Tate $31 million to serve in that role, way too much money to bump him to the third receiver spot before he even plays a down. Watkins deserves to be the primary target somewhere, and placing him in a secondary role will minimize his value. He would still be a productive and successful player in Detroit, but he isn’t worth sacrificing the ability to draft someone to fill the gaping holes in the back seven of their defense.

28) Carolina Panthers

Carolina has two pressing, desperate needs: wide receiver and offensive tackle. Jordan Gross and Steve Smith manned those positions for the past decade, and now that both have moved on they are left with a radioactive wasteland at these positions. The problem they face is that if they stay at 28 they may miss out on the best prospects at these positions. There are only four offensive tackles and six wide receivers worthy of being drafted in the first round, and it is possible that all could be gone by the time Carolina hits the clock.

This isn’t the sort of team I would normally advocate moving up in the draft, but their situation is a bit desperate. They will be expected to repeat last season’s 12-4 performance, despite salary cap issues that forced them to take a step back this offseason. They need a difference maker, someone to help Cam Newton on the offensive side of the ball. Whether that is a weapon or a protector, it would be in their best interest to try to move up to grab someone like Zack Martin or Brandin Cooks.

30) San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have struggled with depth at wide receiver for several seasons, and this year it looks like they are considering a major move to address that problem. They are reportedly very interested in Mike Evans, a player unlikely to fall out of the top ten. To move up to get him they would likely have to give up next year’s first round pick in addition to a few other lesser selections. This is a steep price to pay, but after three straight trips to the NFC Championship Game they have plenty of reason to believe that one more player could put them over the hump.

The trade being discussed is very similar to the one made by Atlanta in 2011, when they moved up from 26 to select Julio Jones with the sixth pick. I am always hesitant to trade away future picks, but I don’t think such a deal would end up hurting the 49ers as much as it did the Falcons. This is already an incredibly deep team, and it is likely that the players they draft in the fifth or the sixth round will never make their roster. It might be better not to be so ambitious, to move up only ten to fifteen spots as they did last year, but if they do decide to jump to the top they have the sort of roster that can survive sacrificing depth of young talent.

27/31) New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos

I haven’t heard any specific rumors surrounding these two teams, but I could see either of them making a surprise leap. I lumped them together because they are facing similar situations. Both have built their teams around aging superstars at the quarterback position, and both understand that their championship windows are extremely narrow. These two teams went all in during the free agent period, the Broncos offering an absurd contract to Aqib Talib and the Saints signing Jairus Byrd with money they simply didn’t have. Both teams will likely be screwed two or three years down the line, and they are willing to deal with that as long as it gives them a shot at a Super Bowl before their collapse.

For these reasons, I could see either of these teams pulling off a surprising move up in the draft. They need immediate difference makers of the sort that are difficult to find late in the first round. They can’t afford to develop prospects like Ryan Shazier when a more ready player like CJ Mosley is within reach. The top ten is probably out of reach, but they could grab someone of value in the early teens.

2^nd Round) Texans, Jaguars, Raiders, Vikings

It will be interesting to see how the quarterback situation shakes out. Bortles won’t fall out of the top ten and I don’t see Manziel sliding past twenty, but other than that the picture is wide open. In some minds (not mine) Teddy Bridgewater has fallen into the second tier with Garoppolo, Carr, Mettenberger, and McCarron, who have been joined in the eyes of some (again, not me) by Tom Savage. It will be very interesting to see in what order these quarterbacks go, who falls into the third round and who rises into the first.

Of the four teams I listed, one or two will take a quarterback with their first round pick. The others will pass, waiting for this jumbled second tier. The Raiders reportedly like Carr, while the Texans are still being linked to Bridgewater. The Jaguars are very interested in Garoppolo, and the Vikings like Carr and Mettenberger. A lot of what I just wrote may be empty rumors spread by the teams to influence decisions by the others, but it is clear that these teams believe they can find a starting quarterback among this second tier.

These four teams all have picks early in the second round, but they may not be willing to risk waiting for their favorite quarterback to fall to them. Arizona could take a quarterback at 20, as could Cleveland at 26. Even New England at 29 has been looking at the quarterbacks in the draft. If these teams believe a quarterback can be their long term solution, they will part with a second or a third round pick to move up into position to draft him. There are plenty of teams in the twenties that would be willing to slide down and accumulate more picks. With so many teams competing to move up, a high stakes bidding war will undoubtedly emerge.

Defensive Draft Prospects

Last week I went through the best offensive players available in the draft, and this week I've moved on to the defensive side of the ball. I've broken the available players into four categories based not on explicit positions but on how they will be used in the NFL: Defensive Backs, Interior Linemen, Linebackers, and Pass Rushers. 

In each position group it seems the common theme is the choice between present skill and athletic potential. More often than not I found myself siding with those who have already shown the technique to play in the NFL, but this isn't a condemnation of players whose value is based on their athleticism. It is highly likely that some of my lesser ranked prospects will turn out to be the best, but because of the risk involved I couldn't justify putting them above their more proven peers.

Again, all the film I watched came from the wonderful website Draft Breakdown. You should really check it out sometime if you have interest in the draft.

Defensive Backs

Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State

Dennard has been steadily falling as the pre-draft process has gone along, as one would expect from a player who can’t match up athletically with his peers. After being a top ten pick in some early projections, a 4.51 time in the 40 yard dash has knocked him potentially out of the top twenty. Of course, this isn’t new information. Dennard has always been slow for a top cornerback, and it shows on the field. He doesn’t have the ability to chase down receivers when he is beaten, so he takes care not to let himself be beaten. His technique is excellent, and he is quick to turn his hips when he sees a receiver running deep. The downside is that he plays without aggression, and he can be beaten underneath by well run out patterns and curls.

What puts Dennard above the other cornerbacks is his physicality. He enjoys throwing himself into the backfield as a run defender, and he is an excellent tackler in the open field. He doesn't bring this physical presence to his coverage, though he will occasionally use his hands to prevent a receiver from crossing his face. In college he preferred to turn and run with a receiver rather than trying to stonewall him at the line, but I think he has that capability if properly coached in the NFL. These tools together give him the ability to bump inside and play in the slot, versatility the other cornerbacks in the draft lack.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

Clinton-Dix may be the most fundamentally sound player available in this draft. Surrounded by talent at Alabama, he was never required to make flashy, game altering plays. His job was usually to sit back in a deep zone and to protect over the top while his teammates controlled the game up front. He never allows receivers to get behind him, and he is a sure tackler in the open field, whether it is against receivers after the catch or moving up in run support. He always breaks down before making a tackle, and he never attempts to just knock a player out instead of wrapping him up.

The concern I have with Clinton-Dix is how he will transition to the NFL, where he won’t be constantly surrounded by top notch defensive talent. If a team looks to him to make big plays, they will wind up disappointed. He doesn’t cover ground particularly well, leaving him a couple steps behind where he would need to be to intercept deep throws. Though his balanced approach against the run prevents broken tackles, it slows him down and allows ball carriers to pick up an extra couple yards on each run. These concerns are worth addressing, but they aren’t worth too much thought. There is nothing wrong with having a solid, reliable safety in the NFL, and that is what Clinton-Dix will be.

Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State

Roby may be the most difficult player to figure out in the draft. In 2012 he looked like a future superstar, a cornerback who would fly around the field making plays for years to come. He made incredible breaks on the ball, had the speed to make up for any errors he committed, and had wide receiver instincts for playing the ball when it was in the air. He was every bit as committed to stopping the run as Dennard, even if he occasionally struggled to get off blockers. Everything we saw from Roby during his sophomore season suggested that he would be a top ten pick when he was finally eligible to come out.

And then 2013 happened. Ohio State’s defense was up and down throughout the season, and Roby’s inconsistency had a great deal to do with their struggles. He still flashed the brilliance that made him one of the nation’s best players in 2012, but teams became smarter at exploiting his aggression with double moves. He was asked to play more zone coverage, and he frequently became lost drifting in space while receivers ran past him. But he showed enough to suggest he can return to the dominant player he was two years ago, and a strong performance at the combine has pushed him back into the first round. He is the best in the draft at pressing receivers and breaking on the football, and if properly coached he has the highest upside of any of the top cornerbacks.

Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

Clinton-Dix may lack flashiness at the safety position, but Pryor more than makes up for it. Though both players ran identical times of 4.58 in the 40 at the combine, Pryor plays significantly faster. He flies all over the field in both the run and the pass, operating on an instinctive level that often takes him outside the defensive scheme. This leads to big plays, but it also causes problems. He will sometimes jump a route, leaving his zone to run at an already covered receiver. For this reason he didn’t spend a great deal of time playing in a deep zone at Louisville, instead covering the flats or matched up man to man on a slot receiver. This versatility is a bonus in the NFL, but it means little unless he can learn to be more disciplined in deep coverage.

His frantic aggression is even more noticeable in the running game. He flies towards the line the moment he reads run, hitting blockers and ball carriers at a dead sprint. This allows him to make plays nearer to the line of scrimmage than Clinton-Dix does, but it also leads to him playing out of control at times. He will sometimes run to a gap only for the running back to cut the opposite way, taking himself out of the play. He also has a habit of throwing himself full speed into a ball carrier’s legs rather than breaking down and wrapping up, leading to missed tackles. Like Roby, Pryor is a bit of a project. But he has plenty of ability to bring excitement and game changing plays to a defense.

Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

In terms of raw size and athleticism, Gilbert stands above the rest of the cornerbacks in the draft. His height is only slightly above average, but his long arms can close down a lot of throwing windows. Toss in a 4.37 time in the 40 and the agility of a punt returner, and you have an athletic package that leaves most coaches and fans drooling. If his coverage skills were anything above average, we would be looking at one of the best players in the draft.

The problem is that Gilbert doesn’t come close to matching either Roby or Dennard in coverage ability. The speed to catch up to a receiver on a blown coverage is a plus, but a cornerback who is forced to rely on it multiple times each game likely suffers from poor technique. A fast receiver can run past Gilbert before he gets his hips turned around, and despite his size he rarely uses his hands to impede a receiver’s progress. He brings no physical presence to the pass defense, and he is nonexistent against the run. He lacks Roby’s ability to make sharp breaks on the ball, and he doesn’t come close to matching Dennard’s technique. This means that he can be beaten both underneath and over the top. His length and athleticism allow him to shrink these windows more than most cornerbacks, but the windows still exist for well placed and well timed throws to exploit. For these reasons, I would not even consider selecting Gilbert until late in the first round.

 Interior Linemen

Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

The best defensive player in college football last season had one of the best performances of any player at the combine, and yet he still may not be selected in the top ten. Donald is undersized at only six feet tall and 285 pounds, and he has a bit of an unfair reputation as a player who only succeeds through pure effort. The word most often used to describe his play is ‘relentless’, and somehow this has become a negative for him. People become so engrossed in how hard he tries on each play that they overlook how talented and skilled he is as a football player.

Donald dominated college football last year due to a rare combination of athleticism and technique. He gets off the ball quickly, and once engaged with a blocker he has a number of tools he can use to beat him. He has shown a swim move, a bull rush, and a spin move, but his most common tactic is to simply swat the blocker’s hands away before using his speed to run past. Though he is smaller than desirable, he has long arms that help him when hand fighting with linemen. He doesn’t have the length to play defensive end in the 4-3 or the 3-4, and he doesn’t have the size to play nose tackle in either front. This isn’t the problem it was a couple years ago, as teams have gotten smarter at playing varied fronts that work to their players’ strengths. Donald should go in the top ten, and if he falls past that he will be one of the steals of the draft.

Ra’Shede Hageman, DE/DT, Minnesota

Relentless effort is the most commonly praised part of Donald’s game, and it is the most commonly criticized part of Hageman’s. An athletic marvel, Hageman shows flashes of dominance interspersed with long periods of apparent indifference. He rarely bothers with backside pursuit, and he is content to hold his ground against a double team rather than trying to fight through it. He wasn’t an every down player at Minnesota (though this was likely because the coaches liked to rotate all their defensive linemen) and he rarely took over games as one would expect of a player of his abilities.

All that said, the flashes of excellence he showed were staggering, more than enough to push him up into the first round. He always comes off the ball hard, knocking offensive linemen a yard backwards with his initial contact. He possesses no moves to disengage from blockers, but every now and then he can break free by pure strength alone and swallow a ball carrier in the backfield. As a pass rusher he only ever tries a bull rush, and once past the initial surge the only thing he can do is bat down passes. Coaches look at a player like Hageman who can dominate on pure talent alone and wonder what he could do if taught how to play with technique. Whether he is capable of being coached remains the crucial question, and it is something teams will have to figure out during their pre-draft meetings with him.

Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame

Nix has a reputation as the premier run-stuffer in the draft, so I was surprised to see the value he brings as a pass rusher. He isn’t particularly quick off the ball or the through the gaps, but he plays well with leverage, getting beneath offensive linemen and using his strength to twist their shoulders so he can get past them. If single blocked, he can turn a lineman around and create pressure in a passer’s face. Unfortunately, he doesn’t actually disengage from the blocker, and good quarterbacks will be able to recognize this and step to the side the offensive lineman has sealed off. Nix can disrupt a passing play, but he isn’t going to collect a lot of sacks.

In a lot of ways, Nix is a similar player to Hageman. He isn’t nearly as quick or as strong, but he has a similar style of flashing dominance just often enough to be intriguing. He draws a lot of double teams but rarely fights past them, and his game relies almost solely on his ability to bull rush a lineman. He uses his hands to disengage more often than Hageman, but this is still a weakness in his game. Right now I would say that he is the superior player, but I have him ranked lower because of a lack of positional versatility. Both players can play nose tackle in either a 4-3 or a 3-4, but Hageman has the ability to slide outside and contribute as an under tackle or a 3-4 defensive end. Nix is only capable of playing in the heart of the defensive line, a position whose value has diminished over the past few years.

Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State

This seems strange to say about a defensive tackle, but Jernigan shows very little interest in playing against the run. He comes off the ball almost straight up, engaging the blocker at the line of scrimmage and not bothering to disengage unless he reads pass. He is frequently driven a couple yards backwards by the initial surge, and even if he does get off his blocker he rarely bothers pursuing a play going away from him. Altogether, Jernigan is one of the worst defensive tackles I have ever seen against the run.

It is fortunate then that he has so much talent as a pass rusher. Though he can’t match the athleticism or strength of Hageman and Nix, he has a number of moves he can use to break free from blockers. He swats their hands away to free himself from the initial contact, and he possesses a devastating swim move that gets him unchecked into the backfield. He would be even more dangerous if he came off the ball quicker and stayed low as he tried to shoot through the gaps, but his current skills will catch the eyes of the teams that scout him. Jernigan is likely a second round prospect, but he has the potential to slip up into the first round if a team falls in love with his pass rushing abilities.

Linebackers

CJ Mosley, LB, Alabama

Mosley is the prototypical run stuffing middle linebacker. He plays physical, downhill style, and he is at his best between the tackles. From the moment he recognizes a running play, he attacks towards the line of scrimmage and into the backfield. He has the strength to plug up blockers in the hole, and he excels at fighting past linemen trying to reach him on the second level. Ten or twenty years ago he would have been a top ten pick in the draft, but in the modern NFL a linebacker needs to be able to do more than stuff up the interior running game.

Mosley is a solid player against the pass, and it shouldn’t be necessary to take him off the field in passing situations. He has a good sense of how to drop underneath the seam and slant routes, and he does a good job playing the ball in the air (even if he struggles to catch it.) He will be useful in the passing game, and no team should avoid taking him because of this. The biggest concern with Mosley is his lack of speed. While he excels within the tackle box, he rarely makes plays outside of it. Once a runner gets outside he needs to take a wide angle just to catch him, and he usually cannot become involved on a play at the sidelines until the runner is already ten yards downfield. If I’m looking to invest a top twenty pick in a linebacker, I want someone who will play from sideline to sideline. As talented as Mosley is, he will never be that player.

Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

Like most projections, I have Shazier ranked below Mosley among inside linebackers. He is a less polished overall player, and his upside is only slightly higher than Mosley’s. But I don’t think it would necessarily be a mistake if he was the first linebacker to go off the board. He and Mosley are very different players—everything I criticized about Mosley is something Shazier excels at—and it is undeniable that Shazier is better suited for the modern NFL. He is significantly more athletic, running an absurd 4.38 in the 40 yard dash. He regularly chases runners down from behind, and he covers ground from sideline to sideline as well as any linebacker I’ve seen.

I have Shazier ranked lower because, even though he is more suited to playing linebacker in the modern NFL, he falls short in more areas than Mosley. Inside the tackle box he can be overwhelmed by blockers and caught up in the wash. He isn’t as sure a tackler as Mosley, and he can be knocked backwards by a powerful runner. He has bulked up some since leaving college, but it remains to be seen whether he can adjust to the physicality of playing inside linebacker in the NFL. These shortcomings are enough to drop him to the end of the first round, where some team will fall in love with his instincts and athleticism.

Pass Rusher

Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

The 2012 version of Clowney would be the undisputed top player available in this draft. The lesser 2013 version would still go in the top ten. The narrative of his decline has been greatly exaggerated over the past year, and you only need to look at the tape to realize what Clowney is capable of offering. Even with minimal effort he was always the best player on the field, and he still flashed enough moments of dominance to let everyone know what he is capable of. If I was just evaluating his 2013 season and his combine results I would see an athletic monster with great potential as a pass rusher, provided he can develop an array of secondary pass rush moves.

But we have already seen that he has these moves. We saw them for a full season, and even though he spent most of last year surrendering once his initial rush was handled, I have complete faith that he is capable of returning to the player he was. He has always had an explosive first step that allows him to beat a tackle around the edge, but what truly sets him apart is his underrated ability to win against a blocker after the initial surge is handled. He strikes with his hands first to create separation then uses his strength to control the man in front of him. As explosive as he is, he needs only a moment of leverage to swipe away a blocker’s arms and race past him. Clowney is a complete football player, both as a pass rusher and a run defender. He plays with aggression and discipline, pursuing plays from behind while still doing his job to keep contain. I have no complaints about his game, only about his attitude, which I am in no position to evaluate. If he can commit to playing football professionally, he will be the best player to come out of this draft.

Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo

Mack did just about everything for Buffalo on defense last year, but he was at his best as a pass rusher. He only rushed on about half the defensive plays, but when he did he was a nightmare in the backfield. His lateral quickness allows him to sidestep blockers, and he does a fantastic job keeping himself low to slide underneath the arms of a taller tackle. His initial get-off was slowed occasionally by his stance, which was more balanced as one would expect from a traditional linebacker. In the NFL he will spend most of his time set up as a pass rusher, and it will be even easier for him to rush around the edge. When he did line up in a pass rushing stance in college, he was every bit as quick up the field as you would like to see from an elite pass rusher.

Mack’s skill with his hands isn’t quite on the same level as Clowney’s, but it is still well above average. It is almost impossible to cut him, as he uses his hands to push aside anyone who tries diving at his knees. It is rare to see a blocker truly control him, and even if a lineman gets his hands into Mack’s chest his position is not secure. Lateral quickness allows Mack to force the blocker’s arms outside his frame to draw a lot of holding penalties, and strong hands give him the ability to disengage at will. His best pass rush move is probably his bull rush. He keeps his hips low as he drives the lineman deep into the backfield, and once he is within reach of the quarterback he has no trouble casting the blocker aside. Mack will need some time at the NFL level to adjust to his role as a full time pass rusher, but once he does he will be one of the best in the league.

Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA

Nothing can be written about Barr without mentioning that he was a running back just two years ago, before the UCLA coaches decided to test his talents on the other side of the ball. Since then, his draft stock has faced a similarly tumultuous path. He spent most of last season as a projected top ten pick before falling in early projections, only to rise back into the top ten over the past few weeks. This isn’t surprising from a player who looks like an athletic freak on the field but struggled at the combine, who still often looks like he doesn’t know how to play the position yet can dominate on the edge.

Barr is more polished than you would expect from someone still learning the position, but he still has lapses during which he clearly looks like a running back playing linebacker. His jump off the ball is adequate, but he doesn’t have the instant acceleration out of a two point stance to run around the edge as a stand up linebacker. He is more effective when he can start slow, get the tackle into a set position, then accelerate past him into the backfield. He doesn’t possess many other moves, but when he gets his hands up and extended he can control the blocker in front of him. This applies just as much in the run game as it does in the pass game, and he shows the ability to be a dominant two way player. He will need more development than either of the two pass rushers above him, but it would not be ridiculous for a team to snag him in the top ten.

Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn

Ford is the best bet for a team hoping to find an impact pass rusher late in the first round. Though he lacks the athleticism and refinement of the higher ranked players, Ford has the ability to be a dangerous pass rusher in the NFL. His game is predicated on quickness, on his ability to beat a tackle around the edge with a traditional speed rush. He will occasionally bow too far outwards on this rush, giving the quarterback a lane to step up behind him. He will need to get stronger to prevent this in the NFL, and he will need to learn to keep himself lower to play with better leverage on a blocker.

Where Ford clearly falls short of elite players like Clowney and Mack is in technique. He has a few moves he can use that play off his speed rush—every so often he displays a nice jab step to the inside or the outside in order to get a tackle off balance—but he lacks the secondary moves of an elite pass rusher. He allows blockers to get into his body too easily and rarely uses his hands to knock them away. The only technique that can succeed without the hands is a spin move, and Ford’s attempts at this were laughable failures. These techniques can certainly be taught at the next level, but they knock him a notch below the more polished options at the top of the draft.

Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri

As a prospect Ealy is on a similar level to Ford, though they are very different players. Ealy isn’t particularly quick, and he rarely beats pass protectors with a speed rush. Instead he relies on his strength. He can sometimes get beneath a tackle and get his outside shoulder turned to open a lane to the quarterback, but he is much better as an interior rusher. For these reasons he may project better as a 3-4 defensive end, though he will have to add some weight to play that position. He splits double teams well as a pass rusher, but he doesn’t hold his ground well against two run blocking offensive linemen.

Ealy’s shortcomings are similar to Ford’s. He doesn’t use his hands particularly well, and he has no counters to using his strength to push past poorly positioned linemen. He doesn’t possess a particularly dangerous bull rush, and if a blocker can get himself in good position with a stable base, Ealy is essentially handled. He is better as a run defender than most of the other pass rushers in the class, but he needs to improve as a defender at the point of attack. When given the chance to chase a play down from behind he is both relentless and disciplined, but when a team runs straight at him he offers little resistance. Ealy has significantly less upside than any of the four I’ve listed above him, but he is probably still worthy of a late first round pick.

Offensive Draft Prospects

As a Vikings fan I have spent most of the past few weeks thinking and writing about the quarterbacks available in the draft. Recently I was made aware that there are in fact players at other positions available as well. In light of this new information, I decided to take some time to study the players likely to go in the first round (plus some of the running backs!) using the videos kindly made available by Draft Breakdown. This week I focused on the offensive side of the ball, breaking the available players into position groups then ranking them based on what I saw on film and their results from the combine. 
 

Offensive Linemen

Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

Matthews is the most complete offensive tackle available in this draft. He isn’t on Taylor Lewan’s level as a pass blocker or Greg Robinson’s as a run blocker, but he boasts a better combination of both aspects of the game. His technique as a pass blocker is solid, though his initial step is smaller than ideal and occasionally leaves him exposed to speed rushes from the edge. Once he is engaged, he keeps himself on balance and stays engaged with the pass rusher, only occasionally getting his hands outside his frame.

His slight inferiority to Lewan as a pass blocker is made up for by his abilities in the running game. He gets good push leading at the point of attack, but he truly excels when asked to play in space. He isn’t as athletic as Robinson or Lewan, but he knows how to handle himself against smaller, quicker defenders. He meets them head on and buries them, giving them no opportunity to slip past and get involved in the play. A smart offensive coordinator will know how to use this to his full advantage, calling for pulls and screens as often as possible to get Matthews matched up against linebackers and safeties.

Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

If you want an offensive tackle who will swallow pass rushers whole, Lewan is your guy. He is every bit athletic as the more heralded Robinson, and his technique is nearly flawless. He uses his hands better than any other tackle in the draft, and once he is engaged with a pass rusher the play is essentially over. Michigan’s struggles in pass protection this past year had nothing to do with him—it was a common sight to see him holding his ground while the rest of the line crumbled behind him.

Lewan’s strength is in pass protection, but he is a capable run blocker as well. He doesn’t produce the same movement as Robinson, but he keeps engaged and knows how to position himself between the defender and the play. He has fallen in the draft due to some character concerns, but these shouldn’t scare teams away. Lewan boasts the best combination of athleticism and technique of any tackle in this draft, and he will lock down the blind side of whatever team drafts him for years to come.

Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame

Every year there are several players who go in the first round by virtue of being solid, reliable selections. They don’t do anything spectacular and have little chance of developing into an elite player, but a team will settle for them once the truly elite prospects are off the board. Martin is the premier example of this in this year’s draft. Compared to the other three tackles he can’t match up—his athleticism and size fall short of all three, and his technique has too many flaws to make up for these shortcomings. But there are few real holes in his game, and even if he can’t play left tackle in the league he can find a spot playing on the right side or at guard.

Martin gets decent push in the run game, but he sometimes struggles to maintain his blocks. He rarely gets beaten by the initial surge in pass protection, but a rusher with a good secondary move can beat him. He has a habit of stopping his feet once he’s established position, and a good edge rusher can spin off the contact or run upfield around him. When he is beaten, Martin lacks the athleticism to recover his base as others in the draft class can. Instead he simply grabs hold and hopes to escape the referees’ notice. For these reasons, and because of his physical shortcomings, Martin will never be a consistent Pro Bowl player at tackle. But he should be able to lock down a long term position on the line of whichever team drafts him.

David Yankey, OG, Stanford

NFL teams are becoming increasingly aware of the value of guards. Last year two guards went in the top ten of the draft, and while there aren’t players with that sort of talent available this year, a team in the late first or early second round will see a long term starter fall into their lap. Yankey is the best run blocker among the top offensive linemen in this draft, better even than Robinson. He is physically overpowering when asked to block a man directly ahead of him, but he truly excels when given the opportunity to move and block in the open field. His athleticism isn’t spectacular, but he knows how to use proper angles to cut off linebackers on the second level. He moves well along the line of scrimmage when asked to pull, either kicking out on a trap block or leading up the hole like a fullback. He regularly buries defenders who get in front of him when he has a head of steam built up.

Yankey’s struggles come in pass protection, where he can be occasionally beaten by a defensive lineman with good lateral quickness. He also gives up more ground than you would like to see from a guard. This wasn’t a major problem at Stanford, where he blocked in front of a mobile quarterback and surrounded by some of the best offensive line talent in college football. It could pose difficulties in the NFL, if he isn’t surrounded by a supporting cast who can adapt to a shrinking pocket.

Greg Robinson, OL, Auburn

I’ve watched more film of Robinson than any of these other players, and I still don’t get it. I realize that he is a physical specimen, but I can’t understand why some people believe he could go second overall. I would hesitate to select him in the top half of the first round, much less in the top five. He is an athletic marvel who dominates in the running game, and many coaches believe they can teach any amount of technique as long as they are given a competent athlete. And while it is true that any offensive lineman will require development at the NFL level (as evidenced by the struggles of Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, and Lane Johnson last season) it is impossible to ignore the fact that Robinson has no idea how to pass block.

Auburn’s offense was designed around an option running attack, and on the rare occasion they dropped back to pass they preferred to have their backs and tight ends deal with the edge rushers while Robinson blocked the inside gap. He only dropped back into a traditional pass set on a handful of occasions, and these usually had disastrous results. In one play I saw on the film, he failed to make any contact whatsoever with the oncoming defensive end. While his inability to pass protect is his greatest flaw, there are several other red flags that would steer me away from Robinson. As dominant he is as a point of attack blocker, he is utterly lost when asked to block in open space. He is also consistently the last player to react to the snap of the ball, which will only further aggravate his technical shortcomings as a pass blocker. It is difficult to ignore the raw athletic potential of Robinson, but when I watch him play I see a player who likely will not be able to play tackle in the NFL.

Xavier Su’a-Filo, OG, UCLA

Su’a-Filo will likely go before Yankey in the draft, and again this comes down to athleticism. He is significantly faster and stronger than Yankey, and it shows in pass protection. He holds his ground better when facing a bull rush and does a slightly better job of moving his feet to stay between a rusher and the quarterback. The one area he needs to improve is general awareness. He was consistently victimized by stunting defensive linemen, not moving off the defensive tackle until the looping defensive end was already past him and in the quarterback’s face. This is something that can be easily fixed with study and practice.

More concerning are his shortcomings in the running game. He rarely blows defenders backwards, and he has a bad habit of trying too hard and playing out of control. Sometimes he will fire off the ball with his head down and let a defensive lineman run past into the backfield. When he gets into open space he looks lost and confused, and he is often just as likely to get in the way of his ballcarrier as he is to block a defender. I don’t think he is worth a first round pick, and if he does end up going that high his team will have to be patient to let him develop through his weaknesses.

Receivers

Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

Watkins is the best wide receiver in the draft, and he should not fall outside of the top five. He has a rare combination of athleticism and physicality that puts him a level above the other offensive skill position players in the draft. He has the speed to stretch the field vertically and to create separation with defenders, making up for routes that can occasionally get a little sloppy. While he doesn’t possess truly special lateral quickness, his physicality makes him an above average runner with the ball in his hands. If he can’t run around a defender, he is capable of running through him. This physicality will also help him fight off press coverage at the next level, though he faced very little of this during his college years.

The one area in which he is truly fun to watch is catching the ball. He snatches it out of the air as soon as it is within reach, never letting it get into his chest or his stomach. He is capable of making catches outside the frame of his body, and the only drops I have seen him make are a result of turning his head upfield too quickly. The one thing he does have to work on is improvisation. His quarterback at Clemson extended a lot of plays with his legs, but Watkins rarely was able to find holes in the defense past his initial route. He usually just settled in place, hovering in front of a defender rather than trying to get open. This is a minor concern, easily correctable with coaching. Watkins is a rare talent in that he is both the surest prospect and the player with the highest upside at his position. He will be a top receiver in the NFL within the next few seasons.

Marqise Lee, WR, USC

Lee was the best receiver in college football in 2012, but after a 2013 season plagued by injuries many have dropped him into the second tier of receivers. He wasn’t helped by a disappointing time in the 40, running nearly a full tenth of a second slower than Watkins. Most current projections place him below Watkins and Evans, and potentially even behind Cooks, Beckham, and Benjamin. That is all ridiculous. Lee is the most polished receiver in the draft, and he is much closer to Watkins than anyone realizes.

Despite a slow 40 time Lee shows plenty of speed on the field, even if he isn’t able to burn past defenders in the same manner Watkins does. He creates his separation by running precise routes with sharp cuts, often crossing defenders’ faces unchallenged and getting open in the middle of the field with vast stretches of running space ahead of him. He is better than Watkins or Evans at running with the ball in his hands, though he lacks the ability to break tackles. He excels with body control, making catches along the sideline that others simply cannot make. He is a complete and dangerous receiver, and I only drop him below Watkins because of his shortcomings in athleticism and occasionally questionable hands. I don’t think it would be a mistake for a team to draft him in the top ten, and I think whoever grabs him later one will be getting an absolute steal.

Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina

Ebron is technically a tight end, but I’ll throw him in with the receivers. He certainly has all the tools necessary to play wide receiver in the NFL, in addition to being big enough and physical enough to line up as a traditional end. He isn’t a great blocker, but he has the potential to develop into one. He can be beaten by an aggressive defender, but he can also look as overpowering as any offensive lineman in the draft. At North Carolina he spent as much time lined up in a three point stance as he did split out in the slot. He should be able to do the same in the NFL, and he will not be a liability as a blocker.

But the reason he is a top prospect is his receiving ability, up there with any tight end that has entered the league over the past five seasons. While he doesn’t have the height of Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, he is a more polished route runner than either of them was coming into the league. Like Watkins he catches almost everything with his hands, holding on no matter how much traffic is around him. He doesn’t have the lateral athleticism to make moves after catching the ball, but if given open space he can outrun most linebackers and safeties. I see him as a very similar player to Mike Evans, and I have him ranked higher largely due to the extra dimension he can add as a blocker.

Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

So much has been made of Evans’s ability to win the jump ball that it has started to seem as if that is the only thing he can do. And while he is still not nearly as polished as most of the other top receivers in the draft, he is more versatile than most people realize. He showed his surprising speed when he ran a 4.53 in the 40 yard dash, roughly the same time as Lee who he outweighs by forty pounds. He isn’t a great route runner, but the separation he creates with his speed combined with his incredible catch radius gives his quarterback a large enough window to fit the ball into. Press coverage is utterly ineffective against him, and unless a team keeps a safety over the top he will produce two or three explosive plays a game.

The smaller plays are his problem, the plays to pick up five or ten yards to keep the chains moving. Because he is so tall defenders can get underneath him, disrupting throws that come in below his shoulders. He needs to learn how to box these defenders out better, which will be easier if he develops better route running skills. He also needs to find the correct balance between physicality and legal play. When engaging with a defender he often uses his size and strength to throw that defender around, which led to a number of offensive pass interference penalties during his time in college. Evans will develop eventually, but he might not have the same immediate impact as Watkins or Lee.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

Cooks is the smallest receiver at the top of the draft, but he is also the fastest. He won the Biletnikoff Award for the best wide receiver in college football, and he shouldn’t have trouble transitioning to the next level. In a lot of ways he is a similar player to Marqise Lee. He runs good routes and has excellent hands. He is probably even better than Lee as a runner after the catch. He doesn’t break many tackles, but he has good lateral acceleration and knows how to find creases between defenders.

Cooks ranks below Lee because he showed less versatility in college, running primarily routes to the outside of the field and rarely heading into the heavy traffic areas across the middle. Someone of his size in the modern NFL will likely spend a great deal of time playing in the slot, where he will have to be able to exploit the middle of a defense. He found some success on the rare occasion he was asked to do this at Oregon State, but he didn’t show enough to indicate that he will consistently be able to create separation on slants and crossing routes in the NFL. For this and other reasons (specifically his utter inability to block) he will likely be better suited spending as little time in the slot as possible. This limits his value, as teams usually prefer to have larger, more physical receivers to play on the outside.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State

I find it somewhat puzzling that Benjamin isn’t getting more appreciation in this draft. He is a very similar receiver to Mike Evans, tall and athletic with tremendous ability to pluck balls out of the air. But where Evans is (somewhat undeservedly) projected as a top ten pick, there is a chance Benjamin could fall out of the first round altogether. Both players have similar downsides—sloppy routes, limited versatility, minimal run after the catch ability—but these problems seem to be held against Benjamin more so than Evans. This isn’t to say that I think he is on the same level as Evans. He ran slower in the 40, and this difference in speed shows on the field. Where Evans can occasionally create separation by running past a defender, most cornerbacks can keep pace with Benjamin. He also isn’t nearly as physical, and he can sometimes be handled by press coverage if a cornerback can get beneath him and get into his chest.

All that said, Benjamin’s strengths can’t be ignored. He is every bit Evans’s equal at winning contested balls, perhaps even his superior. He regularly makes fantastic catches outside the frame of his body, pulling balls away from defenders and spinning to tap his toes on the sideline as he grabs jump balls. There is a place for such a player in the NFL, and the only reason I can see him falling out of the first round is if teams are scared off by questions about his character.

Odell Beckham, WR, LSU

I have seen some projections with Beckham going off the board as the third wide receiver, ahead of Cooks, Benjamin, and even Lee. This is ridiculous. He has decent size and speed, but in every other facet he is merely average. He doesn’t run particularly great routes, and in college he was rarely asked to run anything other than deep patterns and outs. When a ball hits him perfectly he will catch it, but it is rare to see him go outside his frame to make a reception or to fight off a defender on a challenged catch. He doesn’t have the lateral quickness to be a threat with the ball in his hands, though he at least has the sense to realize this and usually attacks straight upfield rather than trying to dance around defenders.

None of this is to say that he isn’t a good player, or that it would be a mistake to draft him in the first round. He does have the potential to be a good player, though I think it is likely that he will max out as a number two or number three receiving option. He is probably a safer bet than either Benjamin or Cooks, but he doesn’t have the upside of any of the other top receivers in the draft.

Running Backs

I need to make this clear before I continue: it is highly likely that none of these players will be taken in the first round. The value of the running back position has disappeared in recent years, and it could be a long time before we see another running back make his way into the top ten of the draft. But the position still needs to be addressed, especially since running backs usually have the greatest immediate impact in the league. These players could go in the second round and turn into another Eddy Lacy or Le'Veon Bell, strong contributors while others in the draft are still developing.

Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State / Jeremy Hill, RB, LSU

The top two running backs available are in a class of their own, and there is very little to separate them. They are both around the same size, and they both ran 4.66 in the 40 at the combine. They are large, physical backs who can work up decent speed if they have space to build their pace up. Neither will make defenders miss in the open field, but they run through arm tackles without trouble due to their strength and balance. As similar as they are, it is hard to say that one is definitively better than the other. Hill shows better ability to get to the edge, but he lacks Hyde’s ability to maneuver between the tackles. Hyde is superior in the passing game, both as a receiver and a blocker. Hill had the benefit of playing in a pro style system during his time in college, and he will have a quicker transition to the NFL. If a team selected him before Hyde, I wouldn’t say they were making a mistake.

I placed Hyde ahead of Hill because of the one area in which he truly separates himself from the other running backs in this draft: vision. Hyde has the ability to find and slip through holes that other running backs don’t see, and he demonstrates the patience to let these holes open. This is what allows him to be so effective on interior runs, and it is why he was so dangerous for Ohio State late in games. He can consistently make it to the second level up the middle, pounding linebackers and safeties over the course of the game until they can no longer take him on. More so than Hill, Hyde is the sort of running back that can carry a team through a game.

Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington / Tre Mason, RB, Auburn

I had similar issues ranking the second tier of running backs as I had with the first. These two are less similar stylistically, but they do have some overlap in their strengths and shortcomings. They are both faster than the two backs ranked ahead of them, though neither poses much threat of breaking tackles. Mason benefited greatly from a strong offensive line at Auburn. He usually faced wide open holes up the middle or sealed perimeters he could cut out to, and he took advantage of these opportunities. His straight line speed is very good, and he almost always finishes falling forward. His biggest problem is a lack of lateral ability, which combined with his inability to break tackles prevents him from creating yards of his own. He is smart enough to realize this and always gets whatever he can from a run, but he doesn’t have the ability to turn a good play into a great one.

The potential for explosive plays is why I have Sankey ranked above Mason. Sankey isn’t nearly as consistent, and he often gets caught flat footed and driven back rather than falling forwards. But his lateral quickness is on another level from the other three running backs. He can make defenders miss in the open field, and once he’s past them they will not catch him. He probably won’t be able to handle the load of a starting running back in the NFL, but he will fit well as a change of pace, third down specialist in the mold of Darren Sproles.