Defensive Draft Prospects

Last week I went through the best offensive players available in the draft, and this week I've moved on to the defensive side of the ball. I've broken the available players into four categories based not on explicit positions but on how they will be used in the NFL: Defensive Backs, Interior Linemen, Linebackers, and Pass Rushers. 

In each position group it seems the common theme is the choice between present skill and athletic potential. More often than not I found myself siding with those who have already shown the technique to play in the NFL, but this isn't a condemnation of players whose value is based on their athleticism. It is highly likely that some of my lesser ranked prospects will turn out to be the best, but because of the risk involved I couldn't justify putting them above their more proven peers.

Again, all the film I watched came from the wonderful website Draft Breakdown. You should really check it out sometime if you have interest in the draft.

Defensive Backs

Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State

Dennard has been steadily falling as the pre-draft process has gone along, as one would expect from a player who can’t match up athletically with his peers. After being a top ten pick in some early projections, a 4.51 time in the 40 yard dash has knocked him potentially out of the top twenty. Of course, this isn’t new information. Dennard has always been slow for a top cornerback, and it shows on the field. He doesn’t have the ability to chase down receivers when he is beaten, so he takes care not to let himself be beaten. His technique is excellent, and he is quick to turn his hips when he sees a receiver running deep. The downside is that he plays without aggression, and he can be beaten underneath by well run out patterns and curls.

What puts Dennard above the other cornerbacks is his physicality. He enjoys throwing himself into the backfield as a run defender, and he is an excellent tackler in the open field. He doesn't bring this physical presence to his coverage, though he will occasionally use his hands to prevent a receiver from crossing his face. In college he preferred to turn and run with a receiver rather than trying to stonewall him at the line, but I think he has that capability if properly coached in the NFL. These tools together give him the ability to bump inside and play in the slot, versatility the other cornerbacks in the draft lack.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

Clinton-Dix may be the most fundamentally sound player available in this draft. Surrounded by talent at Alabama, he was never required to make flashy, game altering plays. His job was usually to sit back in a deep zone and to protect over the top while his teammates controlled the game up front. He never allows receivers to get behind him, and he is a sure tackler in the open field, whether it is against receivers after the catch or moving up in run support. He always breaks down before making a tackle, and he never attempts to just knock a player out instead of wrapping him up.

The concern I have with Clinton-Dix is how he will transition to the NFL, where he won’t be constantly surrounded by top notch defensive talent. If a team looks to him to make big plays, they will wind up disappointed. He doesn’t cover ground particularly well, leaving him a couple steps behind where he would need to be to intercept deep throws. Though his balanced approach against the run prevents broken tackles, it slows him down and allows ball carriers to pick up an extra couple yards on each run. These concerns are worth addressing, but they aren’t worth too much thought. There is nothing wrong with having a solid, reliable safety in the NFL, and that is what Clinton-Dix will be.

Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State

Roby may be the most difficult player to figure out in the draft. In 2012 he looked like a future superstar, a cornerback who would fly around the field making plays for years to come. He made incredible breaks on the ball, had the speed to make up for any errors he committed, and had wide receiver instincts for playing the ball when it was in the air. He was every bit as committed to stopping the run as Dennard, even if he occasionally struggled to get off blockers. Everything we saw from Roby during his sophomore season suggested that he would be a top ten pick when he was finally eligible to come out.

And then 2013 happened. Ohio State’s defense was up and down throughout the season, and Roby’s inconsistency had a great deal to do with their struggles. He still flashed the brilliance that made him one of the nation’s best players in 2012, but teams became smarter at exploiting his aggression with double moves. He was asked to play more zone coverage, and he frequently became lost drifting in space while receivers ran past him. But he showed enough to suggest he can return to the dominant player he was two years ago, and a strong performance at the combine has pushed him back into the first round. He is the best in the draft at pressing receivers and breaking on the football, and if properly coached he has the highest upside of any of the top cornerbacks.

Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

Clinton-Dix may lack flashiness at the safety position, but Pryor more than makes up for it. Though both players ran identical times of 4.58 in the 40 at the combine, Pryor plays significantly faster. He flies all over the field in both the run and the pass, operating on an instinctive level that often takes him outside the defensive scheme. This leads to big plays, but it also causes problems. He will sometimes jump a route, leaving his zone to run at an already covered receiver. For this reason he didn’t spend a great deal of time playing in a deep zone at Louisville, instead covering the flats or matched up man to man on a slot receiver. This versatility is a bonus in the NFL, but it means little unless he can learn to be more disciplined in deep coverage.

His frantic aggression is even more noticeable in the running game. He flies towards the line the moment he reads run, hitting blockers and ball carriers at a dead sprint. This allows him to make plays nearer to the line of scrimmage than Clinton-Dix does, but it also leads to him playing out of control at times. He will sometimes run to a gap only for the running back to cut the opposite way, taking himself out of the play. He also has a habit of throwing himself full speed into a ball carrier’s legs rather than breaking down and wrapping up, leading to missed tackles. Like Roby, Pryor is a bit of a project. But he has plenty of ability to bring excitement and game changing plays to a defense.

Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

In terms of raw size and athleticism, Gilbert stands above the rest of the cornerbacks in the draft. His height is only slightly above average, but his long arms can close down a lot of throwing windows. Toss in a 4.37 time in the 40 and the agility of a punt returner, and you have an athletic package that leaves most coaches and fans drooling. If his coverage skills were anything above average, we would be looking at one of the best players in the draft.

The problem is that Gilbert doesn’t come close to matching either Roby or Dennard in coverage ability. The speed to catch up to a receiver on a blown coverage is a plus, but a cornerback who is forced to rely on it multiple times each game likely suffers from poor technique. A fast receiver can run past Gilbert before he gets his hips turned around, and despite his size he rarely uses his hands to impede a receiver’s progress. He brings no physical presence to the pass defense, and he is nonexistent against the run. He lacks Roby’s ability to make sharp breaks on the ball, and he doesn’t come close to matching Dennard’s technique. This means that he can be beaten both underneath and over the top. His length and athleticism allow him to shrink these windows more than most cornerbacks, but the windows still exist for well placed and well timed throws to exploit. For these reasons, I would not even consider selecting Gilbert until late in the first round.

 Interior Linemen

Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

The best defensive player in college football last season had one of the best performances of any player at the combine, and yet he still may not be selected in the top ten. Donald is undersized at only six feet tall and 285 pounds, and he has a bit of an unfair reputation as a player who only succeeds through pure effort. The word most often used to describe his play is ‘relentless’, and somehow this has become a negative for him. People become so engrossed in how hard he tries on each play that they overlook how talented and skilled he is as a football player.

Donald dominated college football last year due to a rare combination of athleticism and technique. He gets off the ball quickly, and once engaged with a blocker he has a number of tools he can use to beat him. He has shown a swim move, a bull rush, and a spin move, but his most common tactic is to simply swat the blocker’s hands away before using his speed to run past. Though he is smaller than desirable, he has long arms that help him when hand fighting with linemen. He doesn’t have the length to play defensive end in the 4-3 or the 3-4, and he doesn’t have the size to play nose tackle in either front. This isn’t the problem it was a couple years ago, as teams have gotten smarter at playing varied fronts that work to their players’ strengths. Donald should go in the top ten, and if he falls past that he will be one of the steals of the draft.

Ra’Shede Hageman, DE/DT, Minnesota

Relentless effort is the most commonly praised part of Donald’s game, and it is the most commonly criticized part of Hageman’s. An athletic marvel, Hageman shows flashes of dominance interspersed with long periods of apparent indifference. He rarely bothers with backside pursuit, and he is content to hold his ground against a double team rather than trying to fight through it. He wasn’t an every down player at Minnesota (though this was likely because the coaches liked to rotate all their defensive linemen) and he rarely took over games as one would expect of a player of his abilities.

All that said, the flashes of excellence he showed were staggering, more than enough to push him up into the first round. He always comes off the ball hard, knocking offensive linemen a yard backwards with his initial contact. He possesses no moves to disengage from blockers, but every now and then he can break free by pure strength alone and swallow a ball carrier in the backfield. As a pass rusher he only ever tries a bull rush, and once past the initial surge the only thing he can do is bat down passes. Coaches look at a player like Hageman who can dominate on pure talent alone and wonder what he could do if taught how to play with technique. Whether he is capable of being coached remains the crucial question, and it is something teams will have to figure out during their pre-draft meetings with him.

Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame

Nix has a reputation as the premier run-stuffer in the draft, so I was surprised to see the value he brings as a pass rusher. He isn’t particularly quick off the ball or the through the gaps, but he plays well with leverage, getting beneath offensive linemen and using his strength to twist their shoulders so he can get past them. If single blocked, he can turn a lineman around and create pressure in a passer’s face. Unfortunately, he doesn’t actually disengage from the blocker, and good quarterbacks will be able to recognize this and step to the side the offensive lineman has sealed off. Nix can disrupt a passing play, but he isn’t going to collect a lot of sacks.

In a lot of ways, Nix is a similar player to Hageman. He isn’t nearly as quick or as strong, but he has a similar style of flashing dominance just often enough to be intriguing. He draws a lot of double teams but rarely fights past them, and his game relies almost solely on his ability to bull rush a lineman. He uses his hands to disengage more often than Hageman, but this is still a weakness in his game. Right now I would say that he is the superior player, but I have him ranked lower because of a lack of positional versatility. Both players can play nose tackle in either a 4-3 or a 3-4, but Hageman has the ability to slide outside and contribute as an under tackle or a 3-4 defensive end. Nix is only capable of playing in the heart of the defensive line, a position whose value has diminished over the past few years.

Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State

This seems strange to say about a defensive tackle, but Jernigan shows very little interest in playing against the run. He comes off the ball almost straight up, engaging the blocker at the line of scrimmage and not bothering to disengage unless he reads pass. He is frequently driven a couple yards backwards by the initial surge, and even if he does get off his blocker he rarely bothers pursuing a play going away from him. Altogether, Jernigan is one of the worst defensive tackles I have ever seen against the run.

It is fortunate then that he has so much talent as a pass rusher. Though he can’t match the athleticism or strength of Hageman and Nix, he has a number of moves he can use to break free from blockers. He swats their hands away to free himself from the initial contact, and he possesses a devastating swim move that gets him unchecked into the backfield. He would be even more dangerous if he came off the ball quicker and stayed low as he tried to shoot through the gaps, but his current skills will catch the eyes of the teams that scout him. Jernigan is likely a second round prospect, but he has the potential to slip up into the first round if a team falls in love with his pass rushing abilities.

Linebackers

CJ Mosley, LB, Alabama

Mosley is the prototypical run stuffing middle linebacker. He plays physical, downhill style, and he is at his best between the tackles. From the moment he recognizes a running play, he attacks towards the line of scrimmage and into the backfield. He has the strength to plug up blockers in the hole, and he excels at fighting past linemen trying to reach him on the second level. Ten or twenty years ago he would have been a top ten pick in the draft, but in the modern NFL a linebacker needs to be able to do more than stuff up the interior running game.

Mosley is a solid player against the pass, and it shouldn’t be necessary to take him off the field in passing situations. He has a good sense of how to drop underneath the seam and slant routes, and he does a good job playing the ball in the air (even if he struggles to catch it.) He will be useful in the passing game, and no team should avoid taking him because of this. The biggest concern with Mosley is his lack of speed. While he excels within the tackle box, he rarely makes plays outside of it. Once a runner gets outside he needs to take a wide angle just to catch him, and he usually cannot become involved on a play at the sidelines until the runner is already ten yards downfield. If I’m looking to invest a top twenty pick in a linebacker, I want someone who will play from sideline to sideline. As talented as Mosley is, he will never be that player.

Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

Like most projections, I have Shazier ranked below Mosley among inside linebackers. He is a less polished overall player, and his upside is only slightly higher than Mosley’s. But I don’t think it would necessarily be a mistake if he was the first linebacker to go off the board. He and Mosley are very different players—everything I criticized about Mosley is something Shazier excels at—and it is undeniable that Shazier is better suited for the modern NFL. He is significantly more athletic, running an absurd 4.38 in the 40 yard dash. He regularly chases runners down from behind, and he covers ground from sideline to sideline as well as any linebacker I’ve seen.

I have Shazier ranked lower because, even though he is more suited to playing linebacker in the modern NFL, he falls short in more areas than Mosley. Inside the tackle box he can be overwhelmed by blockers and caught up in the wash. He isn’t as sure a tackler as Mosley, and he can be knocked backwards by a powerful runner. He has bulked up some since leaving college, but it remains to be seen whether he can adjust to the physicality of playing inside linebacker in the NFL. These shortcomings are enough to drop him to the end of the first round, where some team will fall in love with his instincts and athleticism.

Pass Rusher

Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

The 2012 version of Clowney would be the undisputed top player available in this draft. The lesser 2013 version would still go in the top ten. The narrative of his decline has been greatly exaggerated over the past year, and you only need to look at the tape to realize what Clowney is capable of offering. Even with minimal effort he was always the best player on the field, and he still flashed enough moments of dominance to let everyone know what he is capable of. If I was just evaluating his 2013 season and his combine results I would see an athletic monster with great potential as a pass rusher, provided he can develop an array of secondary pass rush moves.

But we have already seen that he has these moves. We saw them for a full season, and even though he spent most of last year surrendering once his initial rush was handled, I have complete faith that he is capable of returning to the player he was. He has always had an explosive first step that allows him to beat a tackle around the edge, but what truly sets him apart is his underrated ability to win against a blocker after the initial surge is handled. He strikes with his hands first to create separation then uses his strength to control the man in front of him. As explosive as he is, he needs only a moment of leverage to swipe away a blocker’s arms and race past him. Clowney is a complete football player, both as a pass rusher and a run defender. He plays with aggression and discipline, pursuing plays from behind while still doing his job to keep contain. I have no complaints about his game, only about his attitude, which I am in no position to evaluate. If he can commit to playing football professionally, he will be the best player to come out of this draft.

Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo

Mack did just about everything for Buffalo on defense last year, but he was at his best as a pass rusher. He only rushed on about half the defensive plays, but when he did he was a nightmare in the backfield. His lateral quickness allows him to sidestep blockers, and he does a fantastic job keeping himself low to slide underneath the arms of a taller tackle. His initial get-off was slowed occasionally by his stance, which was more balanced as one would expect from a traditional linebacker. In the NFL he will spend most of his time set up as a pass rusher, and it will be even easier for him to rush around the edge. When he did line up in a pass rushing stance in college, he was every bit as quick up the field as you would like to see from an elite pass rusher.

Mack’s skill with his hands isn’t quite on the same level as Clowney’s, but it is still well above average. It is almost impossible to cut him, as he uses his hands to push aside anyone who tries diving at his knees. It is rare to see a blocker truly control him, and even if a lineman gets his hands into Mack’s chest his position is not secure. Lateral quickness allows Mack to force the blocker’s arms outside his frame to draw a lot of holding penalties, and strong hands give him the ability to disengage at will. His best pass rush move is probably his bull rush. He keeps his hips low as he drives the lineman deep into the backfield, and once he is within reach of the quarterback he has no trouble casting the blocker aside. Mack will need some time at the NFL level to adjust to his role as a full time pass rusher, but once he does he will be one of the best in the league.

Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA

Nothing can be written about Barr without mentioning that he was a running back just two years ago, before the UCLA coaches decided to test his talents on the other side of the ball. Since then, his draft stock has faced a similarly tumultuous path. He spent most of last season as a projected top ten pick before falling in early projections, only to rise back into the top ten over the past few weeks. This isn’t surprising from a player who looks like an athletic freak on the field but struggled at the combine, who still often looks like he doesn’t know how to play the position yet can dominate on the edge.

Barr is more polished than you would expect from someone still learning the position, but he still has lapses during which he clearly looks like a running back playing linebacker. His jump off the ball is adequate, but he doesn’t have the instant acceleration out of a two point stance to run around the edge as a stand up linebacker. He is more effective when he can start slow, get the tackle into a set position, then accelerate past him into the backfield. He doesn’t possess many other moves, but when he gets his hands up and extended he can control the blocker in front of him. This applies just as much in the run game as it does in the pass game, and he shows the ability to be a dominant two way player. He will need more development than either of the two pass rushers above him, but it would not be ridiculous for a team to snag him in the top ten.

Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn

Ford is the best bet for a team hoping to find an impact pass rusher late in the first round. Though he lacks the athleticism and refinement of the higher ranked players, Ford has the ability to be a dangerous pass rusher in the NFL. His game is predicated on quickness, on his ability to beat a tackle around the edge with a traditional speed rush. He will occasionally bow too far outwards on this rush, giving the quarterback a lane to step up behind him. He will need to get stronger to prevent this in the NFL, and he will need to learn to keep himself lower to play with better leverage on a blocker.

Where Ford clearly falls short of elite players like Clowney and Mack is in technique. He has a few moves he can use that play off his speed rush—every so often he displays a nice jab step to the inside or the outside in order to get a tackle off balance—but he lacks the secondary moves of an elite pass rusher. He allows blockers to get into his body too easily and rarely uses his hands to knock them away. The only technique that can succeed without the hands is a spin move, and Ford’s attempts at this were laughable failures. These techniques can certainly be taught at the next level, but they knock him a notch below the more polished options at the top of the draft.

Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri

As a prospect Ealy is on a similar level to Ford, though they are very different players. Ealy isn’t particularly quick, and he rarely beats pass protectors with a speed rush. Instead he relies on his strength. He can sometimes get beneath a tackle and get his outside shoulder turned to open a lane to the quarterback, but he is much better as an interior rusher. For these reasons he may project better as a 3-4 defensive end, though he will have to add some weight to play that position. He splits double teams well as a pass rusher, but he doesn’t hold his ground well against two run blocking offensive linemen.

Ealy’s shortcomings are similar to Ford’s. He doesn’t use his hands particularly well, and he has no counters to using his strength to push past poorly positioned linemen. He doesn’t possess a particularly dangerous bull rush, and if a blocker can get himself in good position with a stable base, Ealy is essentially handled. He is better as a run defender than most of the other pass rushers in the class, but he needs to improve as a defender at the point of attack. When given the chance to chase a play down from behind he is both relentless and disciplined, but when a team runs straight at him he offers little resistance. Ealy has significantly less upside than any of the four I’ve listed above him, but he is probably still worthy of a late first round pick.