Quarterback Purgatory

 

The search for a quarterback is the most crucial part of building an NFL team. The careers of coaches and general managers are defined by their success finding a quarterback. In my post last week I addressed the quarterbacks available in the draft, usually the only place to find a solution at the position. This week I’ll take a look at the teams that might take one of these quarterbacks.

As I see it, there are three teams right now with desperate and immediate needs at quarterback: Houston, Cleveland, and Minnesota. Both Houston and Cleveland will get a shot at one of the top quarterbacks in the draft, and they should absolutely take it. The same goes for the Vikings, if an option falls to them. These three teams have managed to construct fairly strong rosters around a gaping hole at quarterback, and a solid starter at that position could push them into playoff contention.

Of more interest are the teams stuck in between, the teams that may or may not want to take a quarterback in this draft. These teams don’t appear to have a solution at the position, but their need might not be desperate enough to justify the risk of spending a valuable pick on the position. I see six or seven quarterbacks in this class with potential to become starters, and there are thirteen teams that need help at the quarterback position. Most of these teams will not be able to obtain a quarterback, and they will likely struggle through next season in the hopes of being in a better position when next year's draft comes around.

The Outliers

Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars

Unlike the rest of the teams on this list, these two are not even close to having a solution at quarterback. Both have suffered from abysmal decision making at the position in recent years, and both are now stuck with unreliable veterans as the best options on their rosters. Oakland traded a sixth round pick for Matt Schaub, and Jacksonville resigned Chad Henne after two seasons in which his most impressive asset was being someone other than Blaine Gabbert. Neither of these players has any chance of being a real solution at quarterback, and both teams are aware of that.

What separates these two teams from the Texans, Browns, and Vikings is a total lack of talent elsewhere on their roster. These two teams haven’t just failed to find a quarterback in recent years. They’ve failed to find anything. If they do decide to draft a quarterback, they will be giving him next to nothing to work with and he will have very little chance of immediate success. It all comes down to organizational philosophy. Will these teams prefer to draft a quarterback to build around, like Carolina did with Cam Newton after hitting rock bottom in 2010, or will they try to build their talent for another year or two before investing in the most valuable position, like the Rams did before picking Sam Bradford? Both strategies can be successful, and both can lead to utter catastrophe.

New England Patriots

The Patriots are a strange team to find on this list, but the current wave of rumors sweeping the league makes it hard to leave them off. Tom Brady is far and away the best quarterback on any of the teams on the list, but he is 36 years old and nearing the end of his career. And unlike Denver and New Orleans, two other teams with aging elite quarterbacks, the Patriots haven’t made any moves to indicate a desperate desire to win now at the expense of the future. Their team has some holes, but rather than trying to fill them they appear to be looking towards the future. They have reportedly shown interest in Teddy Bridgewater, leading to speculation they may consider a move similar to Green Bay’s selection of Aaron Rodgers in 2005. Most people (including me) believe that they are just blowing smoke and that they won’t actually take a quarterback, but I wouldn’t rule anything out with Bill Belichick.

The Playoff Teams

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona didn’t actually make the playoffs last year, but they came close enough that I’m throwing them into this category. Their defense is one of the best in the league, and the additions of Jared Veldheer and Jonathan Cooper to their offensive line will shore up the greatest weakness on their offense. In Michael Floyd and Andre Ellington they have a pair of talented young skill players on the verge of breaking out, and the biggest question that remains is at the quarterback position. Carson Palmer was inconsistent last season, more productive than any quarterback they’ve had since Kurt Warner but still a liability when it came to turnovers. He was good enough that they might be willing to stick with him for another season, but they would be wise to consider drafting a quarterback if they get a chance. Even if Palmer is their starter next season, he is too old to build an offense around. They may pass on a quarterback in the first round, but they should keep an eye out for one that starts to slip in the second round as a possible option to take over a year or two down the road.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have made the playoffs in each of Andy Dalton’s first three seasons, and they have lost in the first round all three years. In those three games Dalton threw a total of one touchdown against six interceptions, and he has received a fair share of the blame for the team’s postseason failures. A stellar month of October in 2013 aside, he hasn’t shown himself to be remotely above average as an NFL quarterback, and recently he has begun to struggle with the turnovers he had managed to avoid through the first two seasons of his career. Fans of the Bengals have begun to question whether he is their long term answer at quarterback, though the organization itself seems to have his back for now. They will give him another season to prove his worth before they consider moving on.

Kansas City Chiefs

Alex Smith is one of the most difficult players to figure out in the NFL. He has shown over the past three seasons that he has what it takes to lead a team to the playoffs, but plenty of questions remain about whether he can perform at an elite level and carry a team to a championship. Though his ability to minimize risk helped Kansas City improve by nine wins last season, if they wish to continue to improve they may have to try to upgrade at the quarterback position. I don’t expect them to attempt to address this early in the draft, but if one of the top three quarterbacks was to slide to them they would need to give serious consideration to drafting him, even if they want to stick with Smith for another year. They could also potentially draft a prospect like Jimmy Garoppolo, a player who has drawn comparisons to Smith’s replacement in San Francisco, Colin Kaepernick.

Uncertainty

New York Jets

In 2013 the Jets used a second round pick on Geno Smith, the second quarterback taken in the draft. He started all sixteen games for them last season and produced very mixed results. He was fourth in the league in interceptions, but he only had two in the final four games, of which the Jets won three. He offered decent contributions as a runner, and many of his statistical shortcomings can be blamed on the utter lack of talent around him. Despite a below average rookie season, there is still reason to believe he can develop into a capable starter. But it appears he won’t get much of a chance this season, as the Jets signed Michael Vick to a free agent contract with the clear intention of making him their starter. Vick won’t start all sixteen games, but he will limit Smith’s opportunities to develop. This suggests that the Jets don’t believe that Smith will be their starting quarterback down the road, and since Vick clearly isn’t the solution either they should investigate their options in this draft. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Like the Jets, the Buccaneers have a choice between an inconsistent second year quarterback and a free agent veteran. Mike Glennon was better than Smith last season, but it appears that the new coaching staff in Tampa Bay plans to turn the starting job over to Josh McCown, who had an uncharacteristically good stretch of games in relief of Jay Cutler last year. This is absolutely a mistake, but I don’t know if they would be any better sticking with Glennon. He did an admirable job avoiding turnovers last season, but little he did suggested he could be a long term starter in the NFL. The Buccaneers have the seventh pick, and it is very possible that one of the top three quarterbacks could fall to them. I highly doubt they will take advantage of this opportunity, but they should do their due diligence in evaluating their weakness at the quarterback position.

Empty Hope

Tennessee Titans

In my posts I usually try to phrase things to avoid making outright predictions, but in this case I will make an exception: Jake Locker will not be the starting quarterback for the Tennessee Titans in Week 1 of the 2015 season. I could be mistaken about this, but that would require Locker to show something this coming season that he hasn’t over his first three years. Taken with the eighth pick in 2011, Locker has done little to justify the high selection. He didn’t start a game during his rookie season, and over the past two years he has been limited to eighteen starts due to injuries. These injuries have actually worked in his favor, giving the Titans an excuse to justify keeping him around. Had he remained healthy and put forth the same production over three full years as he has over two partial seasons, he would be considered a bust alongside fellow 2011 quarterbacks Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert. Locker has a strong arm and fantastic athleticism, but he suffers from fundamental inaccuracy as a passer. This isn’t something that can be easily fixed. The Titans have decided to stick with him for now, likely turning 2014 into another lost season.

St Louis Rams

The situation in St Louis isn’t as dire as in Tennessee. Sam Bradford is better than Locker, and there is still a chance that he can hang around as their starter for another few years. But the situation they find themselves in makes it uniquely tempting to move on at the quarterback position. They have the second pick in the draft this year, and if the Texans select Jadeveon Clowney they will have their pick of the quarterbacks available. This is an opportunity that doesn’t come around too often, and they can’t be certain when they will see it again. Additionally, since Bradford was signed under the old rookie pay scale he is due $17 million this season. This is a staggering amount, far more than anyone could claim he is worth. Cutting him would save them $10 million on the salary cap which, had they done it several weeks ago, could have given them the ability to fill multiple gaps through free agency. Instead they decided to keep him around in the hope that given better weapons he can develop into a more complete quarterback than the passive game manager he has been thus far.