Quarterbacks in the Draft

Free agency has begun to wind down, and it is time to shift our attention to the next monumental event of the NFL offseason. While free agency is a solid way to build a team, it rarely offers the opportunity to obtain the most essential piece for a championship roster: the quarterback. Free agent signings like Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are rare exceptions—only about once every ten years does a truly elite quarterback become available in free agency. If a team wants to find a solution at the quarterback position, they have to do so through the draft.

I don’t have access to the game film of college players, but I have watched multiple games and read as much as I can find about almost every quarterback with potential to go in this draft. From my observations I believe that there are six or seven (depending on Jimmy Garoppolo, who I haven’t seen play and will refrain from commenting on) quarterbacks in this class with the potential to be a long term starter in this league.

Below I have ranked each of these six players and gone into detail regarding what I think about them. I have made comparisons between them and current NFL quarterbacks, listing for each a best case scenario, a worst case scenario, and what I believe is the most likely outcome. One source I found incredibly useful  is this article from Darren Page of DetroitLionsDraft.com, who broke down eighteen of the prospects based on their completion percentages towards different sections of the field.

6) AJ McCarron

It is unfair to call McCarron boring, but I’m going to do it anyway. McCarron put together a prestigious college career on one of the most stacked teams of all time, winning a pair of national championships despite doing very little to actively help his team win games. He specialized in safe throws and ball possession, trusting his defense and his running game to win games for him. That said, he is definitely more talented than previous Alabama stalwarts Greg McElroy and John Parker Wilson. He will likely go in the second or the third round to some team that sees a talented player who knew that he didn’t need to do a whole lot to succeed with his team.

Upside: Matt Schaub

Schaub has become a bit of a joke over the past year, but it was only two seasons ago that he threw for over 4000 yards and led his team to the playoffs. While he was never a spectacular option at quarterback, he was capable of maximizing the talent around him in order to help his team win games. He knew how to get the ball to Andre Johnson, and he knew to trust his running backs and tight ends as secondary options. McCarron will never be a consistent Pro Bowl player, but placed in the right situation he can play smart and get the most out of the talent around him.

Downside: Colt McCoy

If anyone attempts to claim McCarron will succeed because he is a ‘winner’, point them to McCoy. McCoy finished an illustrious career at Texas as the all time leader in Division I wins by a starting quarterback (a record since eclipsed for fellow NFL flop Kellen Moore.) He was a much more productive player in college than McCarron, but he fell to the third round due to a lack of physical tools. In Cleveland he received several chances to prove himself as a starter, but he could never produce at a high enough level to lock down a permanent role as anything other than a backup.

Likely Outcome: Matt Flynn

McCarron is more physically gifted than McCoy, and I think he will have slightly more success in this league. I don’t think he will ever be a team’s solution at quarterback, but he will be one of the top backups in the league over the next ten years. Flynn is one of the top backups currently in the league, but he was an utter disaster when teams attempted to turn him into a starter. The league has realized now that he is best suited for a situational role, someone to turn to when a better option fails. In a couple years they will realize the same about McCarron.

 

5) Zach Mettenberger

Mettenberger looks like a quarterback, and that’s pretty much all that can be said in his favor. He is tall and thick with a rocket arm, but he lacks any other attributes you would look for in a starting quarterback. He has very little experience reading defenses, he isn’t particularly accurate with the ball, and he threw interceptions at a higher rate than any other top quarterback in the draft. The only justifiable reason to draft him is as a project for a coach who believes he can make a quality quarterback out of raw potential.

Upside: Joe Flacco

Mettenberger’s one real positive is his ability to throw the ball deep down the field. Of the quarterbacks studied by Page, he threw the ball 20+ yards downfield on a higher percentage of his throws than anyone else. More importantly, he completed a higher percentage than anyone else on these deep passes. If he can consistently hit on the deep ball (while also limiting interceptions) he can become a lesser Joe Flacco, another quarterback who only really excels when asked to launch the ball as far as he can.

Downside: Blaine Gabbert

It is just as likely that Mettenberger could wind up as Blaine Gabbert, one of the most staggeringly terrible quarterbacks of the past decade. Like Mettenberger, Gabbert came out of college with very little to offer as a player besides a raw skillset, tools that he failed to develop in the league. He was unable to adjust to an NFL offense, and he could not handle the pressure of a genuine pass rush. Unless Mettenberger makes great strides from the player he was in college, he could easily wind up the same sort of miserable failure.

Likely Outcome: Josh Freeman

It is strange to compare anyone to the bizarre career of Josh Freeman, but I think Mettenberger could follow a similar path. He might be able to impress people early on with flashy explosive plays, but I don’t expect him to find any long term success as a starter. His only hope is to find a great coach who can shape his formidable talent into a capable quarterback, but there are very few examples of such brilliance being found in the NFL.

4) Derek Carr

Carr is one of the more difficult quarterbacks to figure out in this draft. He put up stunning numbers during his time at Fresno State, throwing for 10 more touchdowns and 400 more yards than any other quarterback in Division I last season. But the NFL has seen plenty of stat-heavy quarterbacks fail before, and it would not be difficult to dismiss Carr as just another Colt Brennan or Case Keenum. But unlike those two players, Carr has all the physical tools he needs to succeed in the NFL. The questions that remain are whether he can translate these skills to an NFL system being run against NFL defenses.

Upside: Philip Rivers

Carr isn’t as physically imposing as Rivers, but his skillset is very similar. Both quarterbacks have strong arms that often conceal their issues throwing downfield. Rivers struggled through the past couple seasons in Norv Turner’s vertical passing attack before finding success in a scheme of short, quick passes under Mike McCoy. From Gage’s numbers, we can see a similar trend with Carr. Most of his passes took place either behind the line of scrimmage or within twenty yards, and when he was asked to throw deeper than that he was one of the least accurate of the quarterbacks studied. This isn’t a huge problem if he can find a coach and a scheme to mask these failures, though it is troubling that a number of reports indicate that Norv Turner and the Vikings are high on him.

Downside: Christian Ponder

And that leads perfectly into why drafting Carr could be a disaster. The Vikings have just come to terms with the failure that was Ponder, a quarterback who could not handle pressure or stretch the field. A good scheme can hide such flaws, but if a defense knows it can’t be beaten over the top it saves them from having to worry about defending vast stretches of the field. Carr could end up facing press coverage across the board and a box stacked against the run, and he may not be able to exploit the vulnerabilities of these defenses. His other greatest weakness is in handling pressure. He rarely faced much pressure through most of the season, but in the bowl game against USC he was torn apart by a middling pass rush. Smart defenses will attack him and press his receivers at the line, eliminating his ability to get rid of the ball quickly. Unless he can stand in the pocket, absorb a big hit, and deliver the ball with accuracy downfield, he will likely fail in the NFL.

Likely Outcome: Chad Henne

Carr won’t be a Pro Bowl quarterback. He may not even be a reliable option as a starter. But he will definitely hang around the league, and he will provide some value as either a backup or a spot starter. The best current example of this is Henne, a quarterback who was drafted in the second round in 2008 and has remained relevant in the league by virtue of putting up big numbers on a terrible team. Carr probably won’t make it as a starter, but he will still be in the league in five years.

3) Blake Bortles

I am not nearly as high on Bortles as most people seem to be. There is no doubt that he is an incredibly gifted player, and I think he is absolutely worthy of a first round pick. But I would not put him in the same category as Manziel or Bridgewater. As high as his upside is, everything about him screams bust potential. He is athletic, but he has little experience playing in an NFL system. He has a strong arm, but there are definite accuracy concerns. He could be the best quarterback to come out of this draft, but he could also be a disaster.

Upside: Ben Roethlisberger

Like Roethlisberger, Bortles is an imposing athlete who excels when forced to improvise. He has better speed than Roethlisberger, but he is more suited as a scrambler behind the line than a ball carrier past it. As much trouble as he has with accuracy from the pocket, Bortles is probably the most accurate passer in this draft class when forced to throw on the move. He will need a couple years to develop, but if he has a good, patient coach he can absolutely reach the same heights as Roethlisberger, and perhaps even exceed them. His upside is on par with Manziel’s, and it is the reason why many consider him the top quarterback in the draft.

Downside: Jake Locker

This downside is why I have him ranked behind the other two. Locker isn’t a terrible player (though I anticipate this is his last season as a starter in Tennessee) and Bortles’s downside is probably even lower than this. But the similarities between him and Locker are just too obvious to pass up. Both are impressive athletes who exploded onto the college scene for a single magnificent season. In Locker’s case, he decided to stay following his breakout year and fell from the likely top pick to eighth overall. Since he arrived in the NFL, he has struggled with the same accuracy issues that have troubled Bortles during his time in college. I’ll probably have more to say about Locker in a later post, but right now I’ll just say that the only reason he is still a starting quarterback is because injuries have limited his chances to show how mediocre he is.

Likely Outcome: Matthew Stafford

As great a risk as Bortles is, I still think he will turn out to be a quality starter in the league. Much like Stafford he will be able to make enough flash plays to cover up other shortcomings, but I’m not sure if he will ever have the consistency to be an elite player in the league. As I address with Bridgewater below, accuracy is the most important attribute for an NFL quarterback to have. This is Bortles’s greatest shortcoming, and it is why I would not take him before either of the two quaterbacks listed below.

2) Johnny Manziel

Manziel is the most polarizing quarterback to enter the league since Cam Newton. I personally have changed my opinion on him several times over the past year, and he has been steadily growing on me since his stellar performance in his bowl game against Duke. Concerns about his small stature no longer appear relevant to most NFL teams, especially since he has the large hands and arm strength to overcome the problems faced by undersized quarterbacks in the past. He is capable of making every throw needed in the league, and he is more accurate as a passer than most people realize.

Upside: Aaron Rodgers

Okay, let’s slow down for a second. I highly doubt Manziel will ever reach the same heights as Rodgers. I don’t think he will ever be the best quarterback in the league, but he could very easily be a perennial Pro Bowler for whichever team drafts him. I chose Rodgers as a comparison because among the top quarterbacks in the league he is most stylistically similar to Manziel. Both players are capable of making plays with their mobility, but both are probably best suited as pocket passers. Manziel will not be the same running threat in the NFL as he was in college because his body simply cannot endure the punishment—he is more Michael Vick than Russell Wilson, skinny rather than stocky. To reach this height Manziel will need a lot of work learning to read defenses and will have to learn how to take better care of the ball, but he is a smart, hard working player capable of making these changes.

Downside: Rex Grossman

I’ve chosen more recent players for most of the others in the league, but the Manziel-Grossman parallels are too significant to ignore. Like Manziel, Grossman burst onto the scene as an underclassman, putting together a season that probably should have earned him the Heisman. But concerns about his height led to him falling late in the first round to the Bears. Through his time in Chicago he was maddeningly inconsistent, alternating flashes of brilliance with games in which he didn’t appear to recall which team he was supposed to throw to. Manziel’s high interception total in 2013 was misleading (among the quarterbacks surveyed by Gage he was middle of the pack in interception percentage and several of his interceptions were deflected off the hands of his receivers) but if he can’t take care of the ball he could easily wind up as a failure in the NFL.

Likely Outcome: Tony Romo

When I watch Manziel, I see the second coming of Romo. To some people that may be an insult, but I actually believe Romo is one of the ten best quarterbacks in the league. He is capable of making enough plays to carry his team to victory, but he is constantly haunted by the negative consequences of his risk taking style. Manziel will have a similarly turbulent career. He will find his greatest success when he improvises, but he will also suffer miserable failures doing so. Whoever gets Manziel will have to learn to live with these inconsistencies, but if they can do so they will have one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

 

1) Teddy Bridgewater

Bridgewater began the season as the highest rated quarterback, and despite countless attempts to tear him down I still believe he is the best option on the board. He has above average athletic ability and a capably strong arm, but what really sets him apart from the other quarterbacks is his accuracy. I went through in detail my thoughts on the first game I watched him play, and everything I have seen since then has only confirmed my initial observations. Look at the breakdown by Gage I presented above, and you will notice that Bridgewater is near or at the top in completion percentage to almost every part of the field. Accuracy is the most essential attribute for an NFL quarterback to possess, and Bridgewater is far and away the most accurate passer in this draft.

Upside: Matt Ryan

There are a number of similarities to be found between Bridgewater and Ryan. Both went into their final year in college as the top quarterback in their class, and both put together seasons that were just unspectacular enough to invite unwarranted criticism. Overexposure led to overanalysis, which led to them falling in the draft. Ryan was the best player available, but the Falcons got him at number three. Bridgewater is the best quarterback, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the third quarterback off the board. There are concerns about his slender frame, doubts about his perfectly average arm strength. And while it’s true that his upside may not be quite at the same level as Bortles or Manziel, that shouldn’t be taken to mean he can’t be an elite quarterback. A smart coach can utilize his strengths and turn him into one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

Downside: Sam Bradford

Bridgewater’s upside isn’t as high as the other two, but his downside isn’t as low. If he fails, it will be because his career follows a similar path to Bradford’s. He will be able to run a mildly effective offense no matter who surrounds him, but if he isn’t given elite talent he may not be able to produce the sort of explosive plays you need from a quarterback. As misguided as the analysis of his low weight is, his slender frame could lead to injury issues of the same sort that have hindered Bradford’s development. But for a worst case scenario, teams can do a lot worse than getting another Bradford.

Likely Outcome: Russell Wilson

There have been many comparisons made between Wilson and Manziel, but I think it is more appropriate to compare him and Bridgewater. Both quarterbacks are mobile, but it isn’t the strength of their games. Both specialize in smart, efficient play, minimizing mistakes at the expense of attacking tight windows. Neither may reach the heights of the premier quarterbacks in the league, but they will provide their teams with everything they could possibly ask for from the quarterback position. Wilson has already led his team to a Super Bowl, and I absolutely believe that Bridgewater is capable of doing the same.