2020: Drafting the Bottom

Six weeks remain in the NFL season, the point of the year where the contenders have truly separated from the bottom tier teams, and even the most delusional of fans have to accept that their team is going nowhere this season. For a large chunk of the league, the final six weeks have little meaning besides draft position.

Which is unfortunate, because many excellent players are stuck on these hopeless teams. Football careers are brutally short, and it’s always sad to watch a player put his body on the line week in and week out for very little purpose. There are genuine superstars who have already played their last meaningful football of 2020.

What if there was a solution? What if there was a way for the best teams to take quality players from the bottom-feeders of the league, to borrow them for the remainder of this season? Obviously this would never happen in practice, but it’s a fun thought experiment, and an excuse for me to pull in a couple of friends to help me.

As I did a couple years ago, I put together a draft of the best teams in the league selecting players from the worst. Using the standings prior to last week’s games, I picked out what I saw as the top four teams—Pittsburgh, Kansas City, New Orleans, and Green Bay—and gave them the opportunity to choose players from the six teams with two or fewer wins—Dallas, Washington, Jacksonville, Houston, the Chargers, and the Jets. (Some of these teams now have more than two wins. The timing on this exercise was kind of hard to work out.)

Three friends and I split the top teams among ourselves for this draft. I’m a fan of the Steelers, so I controlled them. Remy Millman is a Packers fan, so he was in charge of their draft. We didn’t have fans of the Chiefs or the Saints, so we assigned control of them to Sam Young—a Bears fan, not the backup offensive lineman for the Raiders—and Jan Jaro—a Jaguars fan for some reason.

Here are the rules for the draft:

• 7 rounds
• Snake order, with the first round set up in reverse order of record (Packers, Saints, Chiefs, Steelers).
• You can take any player from any of the six teams listed above.
• You get the player for the rest of this year only. There is no value in taking a developmental prospect.
• Players come as-is. If they’re injured, you get them injured. For someone like Dak Prescott, that means they’re of little value. For someone like Joey Bosa, there’s some risk of selecting him but he has the potential to contribute for a playoff run.
• Trading draft picks is allowed, but not trading players.

That last bullet is worth noting. There was only a single trade in this draft, and it happened before the draft even began. The Saints traded with the Packers in order to get the top overall selection. New Orleans acquired picks 1 and 9, while the Packers received picks 2, 7, and 23.

And without further ado, here is how the draft played out round-by-round, along with my analysis and some of my thought process along the way.

The Draft

Round 1

1) New Orleans Saints – Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

2) Green Bay Packers – Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
3) Kansas City Chiefs – JJ Watt, EDGE, Houston Texans
4) Pittsburgh Steelers – Zack Martin, OL, Dallas Cowboys

The draft got off to a fast start with the Saints leaping up to grab Watson, unquestionably the prize of this year’s draft class. It’s debatable how much any of these teams actually needs a quarterback, but I think he is an upgrade at the position right now for the Saints. Drew Brees is obviously out with multiple rib fractures right now, and he wasn’t playing at his usual Hall of Fame level even before that. Watson would bring a dynamic new element to the offense, both in his ability to stretch the field vertically and his threat as a runner. The Saints probably didn't need to trade up to make the pick, but I baited Jan by threatening to trade up myself. 

From there things fell pretty smoothly. Allen, Watt, and Martin are all superstar players still performing at excellent levels on mediocre teams. The Packers drafting a receiver in the first round is certainly a strange thing to see, but with Allen alongside Davante Adams they would basically be leading a route-running clinic every Sunday. There are some questions around Martin with the time he’s missed due to injury this year, but since returning to the lineup he has provided a major boost to Dallas’s offensive line. He could do the same to a Steelers line that has fallen on slightly hard times this year after being dominant for the past few seasons.

Round 2

5) Pittsburgh Steelers – Casey Hayward, CB, Los Angeles Chargers
6) Kansas City Chiefs – Kendall Fuller, CB, Washington Football Team
7) Green Bay Packers – Joey Bosa, EDGE, Los Angeles Chargers
8) Green Bay Packers – Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys 

The first two picks in this round fall into a similar boat. Hayward and Fuller were superstars a couple years ago, and they are still solid options even though they are underperforming expectations this year. They went off the board this high because the cornerback pool to select from is extremely shallow.

Perhaps that says something about the endless value debate between coverage and pass rush—there are certainly several quality pass rushers among the league’s bottom-feeders, such as Bosa who also goes in this round to add to an already versatile Packers pass rush. But the top teams here also have major holes at cornerback. So it may be more about an overall paucity of talent at the position in the NFL right now. High school and college football continue to churn out dominant athletes as pass rushers at an insane rate, while elite cornerbacks are still few and far between. 

Round 3

9) New Orleans Saints – Da’Ron Payne, DT, Washington Football Team
10) New Orleans Saints – Brandon Scherff, OG, Washington Football Team
11) Kansas City Chiefs – Tytus Howard, OT, Houston Texans
12) Pittsburgh Steelers – Myles Jack, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars 

The Saints had back-to-back picks to start this round, and they used them to bolster the middle of their lines. I like one of these selections a lot more than the other. The Saints have probably the best offensive line in football, but Cesar Ruiz is still a rookie starting at right guard, and while he has a lot of potential down the road, it would definitely be an upgrade to replace him with Scherff. The need at defensive tackle is more pressing, but I’m not sure Payne is the guy to fill it. He hasn’t really lived up to his high selection in the actual NFL draft, and there were better defensive tackle options available.

The last two picks are about filling holes created by injuries. The Chiefs have been battered on the offensive line, and Howard could end up seeing time for either Eric Fisher or Mitchell Schwartz. His selection was a bit puzzling me with his superior teammate Laremy Tunsil still on the board, but Sam explained that he was worried by Tunsil currently being out with an illness that may or may not be COVID related. Jack was the clear best linebacker available, a versatile athlete who could fill the playmaker role in the middle of Pittsburgh’s defense that was created when Devin Bush went out for the season. 

Round 4

13) Pittsburgh Steelers – Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
14) Kansas City Chiefs – Joe Schobert, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars
15) New Orleans Saints – Brandon Linder, OC, Jacksonville Jaguars
16) Green Bay Packers – Chase Young, EDGE, Washington Football Team 

Once Jack was off the board, there were a handful of other linebackers all in roughly the same tier. Schobert wouldn’t have been my pick, but he fits into the same group with Zach Cunningham, Leighton Vander Esch, Jaylon Smith, and Denzel Perryman as solid linebackers who can dominate against the run but struggle in pass coverage. Such players are a dime a dozen in the NFL, but the Chiefs, Saints, and Packers all have questions at that position that could pose problems against teams that like to pound the ball on the ground.

Linder was a strange pick. I’m not sure if he’s even an upgrade over Eric McCoy, though I suppose depth never hurts at that position. The other two selections in this round were more luxury picks. The Steelers have a ton of weapons on offense, and while they’ve struggled lately on the ground, that has more to do with their offensive line and will be aided by the selection of Martin in the first round. Elliott’s greatest value would come in the passing game. He’s good in pass protection, and he has a burst as a receiver that James Conner and Benny Snell simply lack. 

Burst is what Young is about too. There are more skilled pure pass rushers available, but the Packers have plenty of those after adding Bosa above. Young’s raw athleticism would make him lethal on stunts and blitzes, attacking offenses a few times a game with pure speed and power as they try to handle the more technical rushers coming off the edges.

Round 5

17) Green Bay Packers – Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Dallas Cowboys
18) New Orleans Saints – Jonathan Allen, DT, Washington Football Team
19) Kansas City Chiefs – Linval Joseph, DT, Los Angeles Chargers
20) Pittsburgh Steelers – Laremy Tunsil, OT, Houston Texans 

This was the round about stopping the run. Both the Saints and the Chiefs grabbed someone to shore up the interior of their line, while the Packers added a desperately needed linebacker. I’m not sure if it will fix a catastrophically weak run defense, but it certainly won’t hurt.

As a pure run defender Joseph is better than Allen. Allen may have more versatility as a pass rusher, but if the Saints were looking to go in that direction they would have been better off taking another former Alabama first round pick. Quinnen Williams hasn’t put up big numbers with the Jets, but he’s been disruptive this season, and in the right situation (eg on a defense with any other talent at any other position) he could be a dangerous interior rusher. 

Round 6

21) Pittsburgh Steelers – Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
22) Kansas City Chiefs – Mekhi Becton, OT, New York Jets
23) Green Bay Packers – Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
24) Green Bay Packers – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys 

We did it! A Jets player off the board! Every other team had at least one player taken in the first three rounds, and I was beginning to wonder if any Jet was going to go. Fortunately the Chiefs decided to grab Becton, the most fun player currently on New York’s roster. He’s had some nagging injury concerns this year, but otherwise he has smoothly transitioned to the NFL. He still has some issues in pass protection to iron out, but early in his career he’s already showing an ability to physically overwhelm NFL defenders.

Becton wasn’t the only rookie to go in this round. Herbert and Lamb are luxury picks who will mostly serve backup roles for the teams that grabbed them. Unlike Watson, I don’t think Herbert is currently better than the quarterback of the team he’d be joining. But Ben Roethlisberger has a long injury history, and we saw a year ago that this offense is lifeless with Mason Rudolph at the helm. The offense would have to change and become much more vertical with Herbert at the helm, but the Steelers have the weapons to let him loose. For the Packers, Lamb was added more for what he can bring as a punt and kick returner, while offering some intriguing playmaking in a limited offensive role behind Adams, Allen, and Cooper. 

Round 7

25) Green Bay Packers – Bradley Roby, CB, Houston Texans
26) New Orleans Saints – Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Dallas Cowboys
27) Kansas City Chiefs – James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
28) Pittsburgh Steelers – Justin Reid, S, Houston Texans 

As I mentioned above, the secondary was a glaringly shallow area in this draft. We see it here, where Green Bay and New Orleans both grab solid but unspectacular veteran cornerbacks with much better players at other positions left on the board. Reid is a better value for Pittsburgh at this point in the draft, as a potential replacement for Terrell Edmunds, who is still probably the weakest point of Pittsburgh’s defense even while having the best season of his career.

 

Additional Thoughts

Best Players Remaining

Two years ago when I did this we only had four teams to select from, and by the end of the draft it was a clear struggle to find quality players to select. That wasn’t the case this year. There are two more teams available, and the worst teams in the league this year have more talent to choose from (with the exception of the Jets). We could have gone at least three more rounds without having to reach for lesser players. 

There is one clear top option left on the board, and that is Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin. Still only in his second year, McLaurin keeps getting better and has a legitimate case as a top ten receiver in the NFL already. But for the purposes of this draft, it wasn’t surprising that he wasn’t selected.

The wide receiver group among the bottom of the league is very deep—other quality players like DJ Chark, Will Fuller, and Mike Williams were also not selected—and there are plenty of talented receivers among the top of the league as well. Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, and Tyreek Hill give three of the teams an elite top receiving option, and while the Steelers probably don’t have any single player as good as McLaurin, they have arguably the deepest group in the league. Green Bay bolstered their depth in this draft, and while New Orleans and Kansas City could have benefited from doing the same, it wasn’t necessarily a mistake for these three teams to ignore the position. 

Most of the other best players left are on the defensive side of the ball. I already mentioned several of the linebackers who weren’t selected, as well as Quinnen Williams as the best interior lineman left on the board. There are quite a few quality edge rushers available as well. Green Bay and Pittsburgh are deep at that position, but I think both New Orleans and Kansas City could have benefited from grabbing players like Demarcus Lawrence, Melvin Ingram, or Josh Allen.

Holes Remaining

The teams making these selections obviously have excellent rosters, but even adding seven new players isn’t enough to fill all the potential holes.

The New Orleans Saints had probably the worst draft of all these teams. Their decision to double down on interior offensive and defensive line was strange, especially since the offensive line is probably their strongest unit. But they also have, on paper, the most complete roster of any of these teams. The biggest questionmark is at quarterback, and they made an upgrade at that position. They could have done more to add depth at receiver or pass rush, but this was a hard team to find a clear flaw on before, and it’s even harder now.

Green Bay went hard at addressing their biggest need, which is at wide receiver. They upgraded four of their top five options at receiver and tight end, and they were able to go aggressively at that position thanks to the extra pick they earned from the trade with the Saints. The inability to get one of the top cornerbacks hurts some, but there were few options at that position in this draft. And the pass defense isn’t as big a concern for this team as the run defense. Vander Esch will be a huge boost if he can stay healthy. I have some concerns about their front, and they might have benefited from grabbing a run-stuffing defender like Joseph. But Bosa is as good against the run as he is rushing the passer, and with someone like Young to toss on the edge they can do more to shift someone like Za’Darius Smith to the inside where he can disrupt opposing running games. 

Kansas City’s defense has a lot of holes, and this draft was never going to be enough to address all that. They added a few useful players by bringing back Fuller and grabbing Joseph and Schobert to slow down opposing running attacks, but in the end this team is going to be carried by their offense. They have enough talent on that side that they really only need their defense to get two or three stops a game, provided the offense keeps working. The only threat to that is their offensive line, which has been devastated by injuries this season. The interior is a more pressing concern, and in theory both Becton and Howard could play in there. But even if they don’t, having them as depth on the outside will protect this team from the worst-case scenario.

I was controlling the Steelers, so obviously I like all the selections they made (except perhaps Elliott, but that’s a larger conversation about the value of running backs). Martin and Tunsil together will lock down the left side of their offensive line, Jack and Hayward will bolster the weak points of their defense, and Herbert will give them insurance in case Roethlisberger goes down. The one position I regret not being able to get was a defensive tackle. This defense has struggled against the run over the past month, and while they have the best defensive front five in the league, they don’t have a lot of depth behind that.

2020 Midseason Review: Part Two

I brought the first half of my midseason review earlier this week, looking at the bottom half of the league. Today I have a look at the teams who will be competing for playoff position down the stretch.

Remember, the postseason format is different this year. For the first time seven teams will be making the playoffs from each conference. This has two impacts. First, the wild card field is deeper, so teams that might otherwise be out of contention can now convince themselves they have a shot. Second, and perhaps more crucially, only the top overall seed in each conference will earn a bye. This is a huge advantage, and the race for the best record will mean even more this year than in seasons past.

Front-Runners

This year feels more wide-open than it has been for a long time. No team looks unbeatable, and you could probably name a dozen teams that feel like they can win the Super Bowl if they get hot at the right time. Some of these beliefs are unreasonable, but someone is going to emerge from these teams as a champion. The separation of this tier from the next one has more to do with chances of getting the all-important top seed than any true measure of talent. The road may be slightly easier for these teams, but none of them is going to run away from the competition.

Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)

We start with the Chiefs, both because they’re the defending champions and because they are the closest to a true favorite this year. Their lone loss to the Raiders has them sitting in second place in the AFC, but they’re still in a good position to get the first-round bye. Everything that made this team the champions a year ago is still there. Patrick Mahomes is playing at an MVP level again. Their offense is loaded with speed that few defenses can keep up with. If anything their offense has gotten even more versatile as young players have stepped up at skill positions.

The defense has the same weaknesses as a year ago, and they can still lose in a shootout. But if there is a red flag on this team, it is the offensive line. Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff opted out of the season, Kelechi Osemele couldn’t stay healthy to replace him, and Mitchell Schwartz is dealing with injuries now too. This line was dominant during their Super Bowl run a year ago, but Mahomes has faced a lot more pressure this year, and he has a tendency to take risks with defenders in his face. He’s only thrown one interception so far, but he’s gotten lucky with some drops, and these errors could pile up down the stretch.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0)

The Steelers aren’t as good as their record suggests, but they have the inside track to the top seed in the AFC, and so far they’ve been able to handle every challenge thrown in front of them. Their defense isn’t suffocating teams like it did a year ago, but it still produces negative plays for opposing offenses at an insanely high right.

The offense is a bit of a concern. Ben Roethlisberger is clearly not what he used to be, and so far this year has had trouble stretching things down the field. He is helped by maybe the deepest receiving corp in the league, and hurt by a backfield that really has no juice. When the Steelers spread the field and attack with quick passes, they are difficult to stop on offense. But too often they find themselves stymied as they try to grind games out on the ground. This offense work in fits and starts, and eventually that will catch up to them in the loss column.

New Orleans Saints (6-2)

This team is in a similar position to the Steelers. Drew Brees is a shell of his Hall of Fame self, but he’s still accurate enough and smart enough to pick defenses apart underneath. Now that they have Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders back, they have the weaponry to make this an effective strategy. And their defense has come together as the season has gone along to give them one of the more well-rounded teams in the league.

The two victories over Tampa Bay are a huge deal. It means they are the clear favorites in the NFC South, and that the toughest part of their schedule is behind them. They have some tricky games down the road—Atlanta, Carolina, and Minnesota are all better than their records indicate—but if they handle business they should finish up with 12 or 13 wins, which will put them in contention for the top spot in the NFC.

Green Bay Packers (6-2)

When Green Bay has looked bad, they have looked very bad. Both Tampa Bay and Minnesota moved the ball at will against them, and good offenses will continue to exploit the weak points in the middle of this defense. Fortunately for Green Bay, they don’t really have any elite offenses left on the schedule. They have demonstrated an ability to beat up weaker teams put on the field against them, and with games remaining against the Jaguars, Lions, and Bears they should have plenty of opportunities to show off the rest of the year.

It took a little bit, but the switch of offensive schemes does seem to have revitalized Aaron Rodgers. He’s finally getting the easy throws that lesser quarterbacks like Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Kirk Cousins have used to be effective in recent years, and he’s putting up numbers that have him in the MVP conversation again. The offense still has problems when teams can lock down Davante Adams, but getting Aaron Jones healthy should help bring some versatility back to their passing attack.

 

Dreamers

These teams have uphill climbs ahead of them, but they are hardly impossible. There’s less margin for error for them, but if they can go on a streak they have the talent to jump back into the Super Bowl conversation.

Baltimore Ravens (6-2)

Baltimore is probably just as good a team as Pittsburgh, but two games back in the division with a loss to their rival puts them in a tough spot. Right now they are likely headed for a wild card spot, which means likely going on the road for three straight games before reaching the Super Bowl. This is a veteran, well-coached team that can pull off this sort of run, but it’s still far from ideal.

The bigger issue for them right now is figuring out how to get Lamar Jackson back to playing at an MVP level. He’s still electric on the ground, but life has gotten difficult for him as a passer. The protection up front was shaky even before Ronnie Stanley was lost for the year, and when the pass rush gets in his face he struggles to throw accurately and has a tendency to drop his eyes and take off running even when there is no lane there. They need to find a way to make life easy for him again. Whether that means keeping extra blockers in or cutting deep shots out of their passing attack, this offense is going to lose some of the dynamism that earned them the top seed in the AFC a year ago.

Buffalo Bills (7-2)

Buffalo is not the team we expected them to be this year. A year ago they were a dominant defense supported by a functional enough offense, and the best case scenario most people saw was the defense sustaining this level while Josh Allen took another moderate step forward. Instead the defense has fallen off sharply, while Allen is playing like a top ten quarterback.

It isn’t just that Allen is more efficient. It’s that he’s producing at a much higher volume. Before this year he had never thrown for more than 270 yards in a game. He’s done so six times in nine games, including a pair over 400 yards with 3 touchdowns. The Bills are happy to lean on him, as they did a week ago against Seattle where they basically abandoned the run from the start. He’s still a little up-and-down from week-to-week, and it’s tough to see him pulling off four straight great performances in a playoff environment. But if this defense can pull itself together and become an above-average unit again, the Bills are the sort of team that can keep up with anyone.

Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

As I mentioned in the section above, the Bills entered Sunday’s game against Seattle with no interest in doing anything other than passing the football. And it worked, because Seattle cannot stop anyone from throwing the football. They have no pass rush, and their secondary was bad even before it was hit by injuries. Not every team is as willing to attack solely through the air as Buffalo did, but there are several in the NFC playoff field who will be happy to put the ball in their quarterback’s hands.

The only real hope Seattle has is to hand it to Russell Wilson and hope that he can keep up. They’ve definitely taken the leash off of him some this year, and he has responded with his best season as a pro. They are going to need even more from him going forward. This means constant deep attacks down the field with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and also probably utilizing Wilson as a rusher in a way they haven’t in the past few years. They need him to be a superhero, and he’s one of the few players in the league who is capable of living up to that.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)

Those two losses to New Orleans are brutal. Like Baltimore, the Buccaneers are now looking at a likely wild card spot, which makes life a lot more difficult for them going forward. This is hard for them to stomach, because prior to last week they had a case as the most impressive team in the NFL this season. Their offense is explosive down the field, and their defense was playing as well as anyone before being battered to pieces by the Saints.

This Buccaneers team actually reminds me a lot of the Patriots a year ago. They got off to a hot start behind what appeared to be a revitalized Tom Brady, but were mostly driven by a dominant defense. As the year wore on, their defense regressed and Brady looked worn down by the long season. Maybe things will be different this year—there isn’t as much room for this defense to regress, and Brady will benefit from a more talented supporting cast and more pleasant weather. But the arrow is pointing down for this team, and I think they are just as likely to be fighting for a playoff spot at the end of the year as pushing for a Super Bowl.

 

Not Quite There

These teams are flawed, and they have tough roads ahead. They aren’t really in contention for a bye, and they probably don’t have what it takes to go on any sort of postseason run. These are teams that entered the year hoping to be competitive, but for one reason or another they’ve fallen short.

Los Angeles Rams (5-3)

This 5-3 record is as deceptive as any in the league. The Rams are 4-0 in games against the NFC East, and 1-3 against all other opponents. They still have two games each against the Seahawks and the Cardinals, plus another against Tampa Bay. It’s not hard to imagine them completely falling apart down the stretch and missing the playoffs altogether.

That isn’t to say they’re a bad team. They’ve mostly taken care of business against the mediocre opponents they’ve faced. Jared Goff remains a perfectly capable quarterback wen you aren’t asking too much of him, and with Darrell Henderson sliding into the primary running back role they’ve gotten back the offensive balance they were missing a year ago. But they still just don’t have a lot of talent on this roster. They sent away draft picks in droves to try to build their team for 2018, and now they are suffering the consequences of the drain in young talent. Unfortunately they don’t have a draft pick next year either, so it’s going to be a struggle to patch these holes.

Tennessee Titans (6-3)

There are pieces in place for the Titans. Derrick Henry is dangerous when you can open a lane for him, and even with some injuries and issues in pass protection, this remains a solid run-blocking offensive line. Ryan Tannehill now has more than a season of elite level play in this scheme, and at this point it’s pretty clear that he is a top ten quarterback in the league right now. Second-year players AJ Brown and Jeffrey Simmons look like one of the best draft classes in recent memory, and Mike Vrabel has proven to be a very capable head coach.

They are building something in Tennessee, but it still hasn’t come together. Their offense can find themselves slamming repeatedly into a wall against teams with a strong defensive front, but the bigger concern is their defense. The front has some nice players, but the secondary is full of holes that competent quarterbacks can pick apart. And unfortunately when they get to the playoffs, they are going to have trouble containing the top quarterbacks in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

The difference between the Colts and teams above them like Pittsburgh and New Orleans primarily comes down to their offensive weapons. Philip Rivers has declined much like Roethlisberger and Brees, but where the other two have deep and talented receiving corps to lean on, the Colts really don’t have much to work with. They don’t have anyone they can trust to win one-on-one matchups, and their running game has suffered with the loss of Marlon Mack. This offense can work as it did on Thursday against the Titans, but against top defenses they have a habit of going completely silent.

Even when that happens, the Colts have the defense to keep them in games. DeForrest Buckner is playing out of his mind, looking well worth the cost of the first round pick the Colts traded to get him. And with a resurgence from veterans like Xavier Rhodes and Justin Houston, this defense is performing like one of the best in the league. They can keep things competitive in ugly games, but I don’t think they have what it takes on offense to win four straight in the playoffs.

 

Happy to Be Here

Like the group above, these teams are right in the thick of the playoff race without really being contenders for a championship. Unlike the three I just listed, this group doesn’t particularly mind where they’re at. These teams are trending up, and a postseason appearance this year will provide crucial experience for seasons to come.

Arizona Cardinals (5-3)

Arizona’s step forward on offense this year has been better than even the most optimistic fan could have expected. DeAndre Hopkins remains arguably the best wide receiver in football, and he has developed an instant rapport with Kyler Murray. Murray has taken a major leap forward in his second year and is on the fringe of MVP conversation. He is still occasionally inconsistent as a passer, but the Cardinals have now fully weaponized him as a rushing threat, and he is on pace to have more than 1000 yards on the ground this year.

The defense is still a work in progress. The loss of Chandler Jones is a huge blow, and they simply don’t have the talent to make up for this. They have some playmakers at the back end, and when things break right they can produce scoring opportunities with their defense on the field. But most of the time they struggle to get opposing offenses off the field. They have potential here, but it will probably take another year or two to pull things together. And in the meantime they will continue to drop games they need to win.

Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)

I was skeptical of the Jon Gruden hiring after years away from an NFL sideline, but he seems to be the key to finally unlocking Derek Carr. Carr isn’t an MVP passer by any means, but with Gruden calling the shots he seems finally willing to attack down the field. With a bevy of young skill position talent, he is in a perfect position to succeed on an offense that can attack from multiple directions.

If only their defense was the same story. The investments they’ve made on that side of the ball continue to show minimal results, and at this point it’s worth questioning a lot of the decisions made by GM Mike Mayock. Damon Arnette has been wildly inconsistent, and Clelin Ferrell has the looks of a major bust, with no sacks this year after being taken with the fourth overall selection as their pass rusher of the future in 2019. There’s virtually nothing to build around on this side of the ball, and as good as their offense is, it isn’t at the elite level of a team like Kansas City or Seattle where it can carry the team on its own.

Miami Dolphins (5-3)

I don’t think there’s a coach in the NFL who has done a better job over the past two years than Brian Flores. The Dolphins should not be competitive at this point, yet right now they are in the mix for a wild card spot. There was a lot of consternation a couple weeks back when they decided to make the switch from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa in the middle of a winning streak, but two victories later it seems unlikely Tagovailoa will surrender the starting role for the next decade. He still has a lot of room to grow, but he’s making plays when the offense needs them.

They don’t need them much because this defense is electric. They invested heavily in the secondary this offseason, and they’ve built the unit around being able to lock teams up on the back end. They play as aggressive a style as any defense in the league, regularly sending all-out blitzes with cover-zero behind it. Sometimes this burns them, but more often they are able to harass opposing quarterbacks into mistakes. The talent on this team is not up to the level of the teams they are competing with in the AFC, but the play-calling on both sides of the ball is elevating them above that level. And with a likely high draft pick headed their way from the Texans, they have a chance to build into a truly competitive team starting as soon as next year.

Cleveland Browns (5-3)

An extra year has passed, but the Browns are pretty much exactly where we thought they’d be at the start of the 2019 season. They’re good enough to push for the playoffs, but not good enough to compete with quality teams. In their games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh this year they were run off the field with ease, but they’ve handled business against the lesser opponents they’ve faced.

Myles Garrett is putting together a Defensive Player of the Year caliber season, and their offensive line has taken a major leap forward and is performing as one of the best units in the league this year. Baker Mayfield is still a questionmark though. He hasn’t developed at all since his rookie season, and he still make far too many mistakes trying to operate outside the structure of the offense. He doesn’t work through his progressions particularly well, and he regularly breaks from clean pockets trying to create big plays where they simply aren’t there. Until this gets cleaned up, the Browns will remain a talented team on the outside looking in. After more than a decade of total incompetence, this is still a breath of fresh air, but there is only so much patience that can be given to a team with this much potential.

2020 Midseason Review: Part One

We are more or less halfway through the NFL season. Every team has played at least eight games, and now it’s time to start looking ahead at the playoff races shaping up. Of course, not everyone is in playoff contention, even with the expanded field of 14 teams this year.

Today I’m addressing the bottom half of the league (actually there are 17 teams included today and 15 later this week, but close enough). I’ve separated these teams into tiers based on what I expect from them the rest of the year.

So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance

The two teams in this category are coming from very different places, but they both weirdly find themselves in similar situations. Halfway through the year, they are still alive to grab one of the wild card spots in the NFC. There are clear flaws that could doom them, but there are also strengths they can lean on as well. And it just so happens they face each other on Monday night, which will play a major role in deciding who is still alive and who is fighting a lost cause down the stretch.

Chicago Bears (5-4)

The Bears changed quarterbacks in week 3, and the team remained exactly the same. Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky are very different quarterbacks stylistically, but they share one important trait: they aren’t good enough. Not behind an offensive line that was mediocre even before it was battered by injuries, and not throwing to a receiving corps that has nothing going except Allen Robinson. This offense is lifeless, and there isn’t a quarterback on the roster that can change that.

Still, the Bears are 5-4, and if the season ended today they’d be just half a game out of a playoff spot. Many of their early season wins came through dumb luck in games where they were outplayed, but that doesn’t take the wins off the board. They still have a terrifying defense that can steal a few points each game. And even though they’re trending down right now, their schedule the rest of the way presents them with enough opportunities to stumble into nine or ten victories.

Minnesota Vikings (3-5)

Maybe I’m too much of an optimist. Maybe the team that folded against the Colts and the Falcons will pop up again down the stretch, and the Vikings will lose several games that appear winnable. This team has a very Jekyl-and-Hyde feel, and it all flows from their running game. When they are finding success on the ground, they can compete with anyone. When their run game is stymied, they aren’t able to adapt on the fly to find the offensive success they need to support a shaky defense.

It isn’t even about Dalvin Cook, although keeping him healthy will certainly be helpful to their playoff chances. It’s about their offensive line. This unit has run hot and cold for years, but there is reason for hope after a couple strong games from rookie Ezra Cleveland appear to have patched some of the issues on the interior. Their victory over Green Bay two weeks ago shows what they are capable of, and with games remaining against the Lions, the Jaguars, the Panthers, and the Cowboys (plus two against the Bears) they have the sort of schedule that could allow them to get hot and snag the last playoff spot despite their poor record in the first half of the year.

NFC East

I don’t have much more to say about the NFC East as a division. They’re a disgrace, but they’re still going to send a team to the playoffs. They deserve their own category here, because even the competitive teams could be in contention for a top draft pick if they fall a couple games behind in this race.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1)

On paper the Eagles should be the clear favorites. They have the best record in the division after two straight victories over division rivals. They have the only healthy quarterback who has demonstrated competence in the NFL at points in the past. They should be getting healthier on offense after a bevy of injuries killed them earlier in the year. Of all these teams, they’re the only one I can see approaching some degree of respectability down the stretch.

But every time I think this, they go out and do something humiliating. I’ve never been a fan of Carson Wentz, but even I didn’t expect this disaster of a performance. Even if you cut him some slack for the lack of talent on this depleted offense, you can’t explain the utterly nonsensical decisions he continues to make multiple times each week. The Eagles should win this division, but they also should be a lot farther ahead than they are right now. And with a less than friendly schedule ahead, I think it’s likely that this remains a battle for the rest of the season.

Dallas Cowboys (2-7)

Dallas put up a good fight this past weekend against Pittsburgh, and it should give them reason to hope they can be competitive the rest of the year. Garrett Gilbert looked much more competent than Ben DiNucci, and their offensive line seemed stabilized with a healthy Zack Martin. They still have a lot of talent on offense, and simple competence from quarterback may be enough for them to scrap their way to a couple unexpected victories.  

The question is whether this is something they actually want. A playoff appearance is always fun, but they certainly aren’t going far without Dak Prescott. They would likely benefit more from a high draft selection if they continue their losing ways. The smart move would be to use that pick on the defensive side of the ball to help a unit in desperate need of playmakers. But I wouldn’t count them out of the quarterback sweepstakes in the draft. This year should demonstrate just how valuable Dak Prescott is and should get them to roll out the massive contract he rightly deserves. But if they listened to me, they would have paid him long before it got to this point.

New York Giants

What is Daniel Jones? He’s better than I thought he would be entering the league, but that’s not a high bar to clear, and at times it seems like he is just barely scraping over it. Every time he looks like a capable quarterback distributing the ball around the field with his strong arm and his athleticism, he follows it up with an incomprehensible mistake. He turns the ball over more than any other quarterback in the league, and he doesn’t seem to be getting any better at taking care of it. And while he’s competent outside of these mistakes, he doesn’t make plays at the Jameis Winston or Baker Mayfield level where it is possible to argue he is worth the negative plays.

The Giants are in a weird place. They changed coaches last offseason, but they kept around GM Dave Gettleman. I don’t think much of Gettleman, and this could be the year the Giants ownership catches up with me on this. If they change GMs, the new guy will have no commitment to Jones and will likely move on. But unless he’s also willing to cast aside head coach Joe Judge after one year, it seems strange to stick a rookie quarterback into a potentially lame-duck coaching situation. I think Jones will be back at the head of the Giants next year, and I don’t think it will really accomplish anything, other than setting them up to be in a better position to start fresh in 2022.

Washington Football Team

Washington was never in a great position, but the injury to Kyle Allen makes their position even more awkward. With him they could at least justify running out a mediocre stopgap as they tanked down the stretch, without any real commitment going forward. Now that he’s injured, they have a tough choice to make at the position. It feels almost unethical to continue to run Alex Smith out there after he’s looked completely lifeless in two appearances so far. But I don’t think they’ll go back to Dwayne Haskins. Ron Rivera clearly never had any interest in giving him a chance—for reasons to I have to imagine are as much off the field as on—and even a breath of competence might make it difficult for him to cast aside a recent first round pick and go out to get his own guy this offseason.

I’m not sure what else there is to say about this team. Chase Young is as good as advertised, and Terry McLaurin is quickly emerging as a top ten NFL wide receiver. Their new uniforms look good I guess, and I’m mildly excited to see what they come up with as their new mascot this offseason, the first team to change this up since the Oilers became the Titans in 1999. But when I’m talking about uniforms and mascots, you know there’s not much there on this roster. In any other division we’d be talking about them in the chase for the first overall pick. Instead they’re still within reach of a playoff spot, with plenty of opportunities to add more wins down the stretch.

 

Too Little, Too Late

These aren’t exactly bad teams. In fact, some of them are actually fun teams. Their records right now means that they have almost no shot to make the playoffs. But it will at least be a little worthwhile to tune in to their games now and then the rest of the season.

Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

For the second straight season, the Falcons seem primed for a second-half run that is ultimately futile thanks to the calamity of their start to the season. They are playing better recently with three wins in their past four games. But their schedule the remainder of the year is brutal (Kansas City, Las Vegas, and two each against Tampa Bay and New Orleans). They will steal a few of those games to mess up some postseason hopes, but they won’t be able to run the table, which is what they will likely need to make the postseason.

The remainder of the season will play a big role in shaping their offseason. They will be bringing in a new coach and new general manager, and whoever they get will likely want to build the team from the ground up sooner or later. It will be easier for them to do so this offseason if Atlanta bombs down the stretch, but if they can pull off a few upsets and get close to a .500 record, it’s possible they will try to run this current roster back for one more year.

Houston Texans (2-6)

The Texans aren’t a complete disaster, and they have enough winnable games over the remainder of the season to put together at least a respectable record. Their schedule to this point is a little strange—their only victories are over Jacksonville, but their defeats have come against teams with a combined record of 37-12. They aren’t a good team, but they’re a lot better than their record indicates. The hole they’ve dug is too deep to have any realistic playoff hopes, but they aren’t going to finish with a top-ten selection.

Which is good, because they don’t have their first round pick. They finally broke away from Bill O’Brien after their disastrous start to the year, but it will take another couple years for them to undo the damage he did to their roster. This team needs to rebuild, but they don’t really have the tools to rebuild, which means they are at least two or three seasons away. Deshaun Watson and Laremy Tunsil will likely still be around then, but I’m not sure if there is anyone else on this roster who will be. The only solace they have is Watson, who will hopefully be intriguing enough to give them their choice of coaching candidates this offseason as they try to build around him again.

San Francisco 49ers (4-5)

It’s easy to envision this team’s season playing out differently, because we saw it a year ago. In 2019 the 49ers were able to jump out to early leads, harass opposing quarterbacks with their deep defensive line, and keep things simple for Jimmy Garoppolo. In 2020 they’ve been blown off the field from the snap of the ball on multiple occasions, and a couple breezy wins over the New York teams make their record look better than it is.

In the brutal NFC West there is no room for bad luck, and the 49ers have been hit hard by injuries this year. Nick Bosa and George Kittle are both done for the year. Garoppolo has been in and out of the lineup, and he hasn’t been particularly reliable when he is on the field. Entering the offseason they have the ability to save $24 million by cutting him, an option that will be tempting if they fall apart down the stretch and finish with a high draft pick. We saw how far this team can go a year ago. If they can upgrade at quarterback and stay healthy in 2021, they have the chance for a playoff push again.

Carolina Panthers (3-6)

Expectations weren’t high in Matt Rhule’s first year, and even though their record isn’t great I think it’s reasonable to say the Panthers have outperformed them. They’ve fallen just short in a couple heartbreaking losses, otherwise they’d be in the conversation for a playoff push. They aren’t good enough to pull off the streak they’ll need the rest of the year, but they’re a team that is slowly coming together and should finish the year with reason for excitement heading into 2021.

The defense has been the biggest surprise. The first few weeks they were the disaster I expected, but they’ve fought their way to be at least functional over the past month. Jeremy Chinn is still raw as hell, but he’s an electric playmaker who flies all over the field. And Brian Burns is a budding superstar pass rusher. I have no idea if Teddy Bridgewater is a long-term answer at quarterback, but he has been exactly what they needed in Joe Brady’s offense, distributing the ball to a talented receiving corps of Robbie Anderson, DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel. He’s earned an opportunity to come back next year and lead a team with the potential to take a major leap.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1)

The Bengals are a bit of an outlier in this group in that they aren’t disappointed by the outcome of this season. They’ve been bad, but they’re better now than they were a year ago, and the arrow remains pointed up. There are a lot of holes on this roster, but it looks like they’ve filled the most important one. Joe Burrow has been inconsistent at times behind a dreadful offensive line, but in recent weeks he’s been making more plays down the field, developing a good rapport with second-round selection Tee Higgins.

The remainder of this season is an evaluation period for head coach Zac Taylor. I think it would take a lot for the Bengals to make a change at the end of the year, but I still haven’t seen anything to suggest Taylor is actually a good coach. He really hasn’t been in a position to be evaluated yet. They were in a teardown phase a year ago, and the first half of this season was mostly about getting Burrow up to speed. If they can pull off a few more wins over the second half of the year, they can head into 2021 feeling confident about the two most important positions on their team.

Los Angeles Chargers (2-6)

It’s actually a fascinating conversation right now whether Burrow or Justin Herbert has been the better rookie quarterback this season. Herbert’s stats are certainly better, though he is also in a better situation and has been bolstered by insane, and possibly unsustainable, success throwing deep down the field. Whatever side you come down on, I don’t think either of these teams is upset about the debuts of their franchise quarterbacks.

The Chargers have a new quarterback, and somehow they are still the Chargers. I don’t know how to explain their continued ineptitude in late-game situations. It goes beyond coaching, beyond players, beyond anything that can be explained by natural means. I keep expecting it to revert, and it keeps not happening. This team has the talent to make a second-half surge and grab a wild card spot, but at this point it seems foolish to expect anything other than the usual Chargers heartbreak.

 

Where Are They Going?

These teams are as dead as those in the group above. Unlike the group above, there’s really no reason to pay attention to them over the remainder of the season. They aren’t going to win games, and they aren’t building anything towards next year. They’re just kind of spinning their wheels.

New England Patriots (3-5)

It looked so good the first few weeks of the season. This defense was dominating, and Cam Newton was revitalized at the head of a grinding running game. But Newton’s COVID absence seems to have thrown their entire offense off-sync. They can’t stretch defenses down the field, and without that threat their opponents are able to pack the box and shut down their running game. Over a stretch of four straight defeats they scored a total of 49 points. I don’t care how good your defense is, you can’t win consistently with that.

What is Newton at this point? Is he the player we saw the first few weeks that looked like the perfect fit in this offense? Or is he the player we saw over the following month, the player he was during his last couple appearances in Carolina? At this point, I don’t think there’s much chance anyone commits to him as a long term quarterback solution. The Patriots will have the rest of the year to evaluate him, and then they’ll have a decision to make this offseason. I don’t think Bill Belichick wants to start over with a rookie quarterback, but there might be no other path forward for them at the position.

Denver Broncos (3-5)

Denver is a bit perplexing to me. Every time I flip over to one of their games they are doing something absolutely terrible, yet they somehow end up competitive at the end of most of them. Drew Lock still seems mostly lost at quarterback, but he makes enough plays that it’s hard to justify casting him aside entirely. Even with the injury to Courtland Sutton they have a lot of talent on offense, and when everything is operating smoothly they are a headache to contain.

Can they find any more consistency on offense? They’re going to have to if they want to have any chance of a playoff push. Their defense looks good by some advanced metrics, but it isn’t dynamic without Von Miller and with Bradley Chubb still a little slow coming back. They don’t force mistakes from the other team, and they make too many mistakes of their own when they have the ball. I don’t see the former changing with the talent currently on their defense, so they are going to have to clean up the latter to have any chance going forward. Lock is the big question, one they will likely have to deal with in the offseason. At least in 2020 though, I don’t think he’s a real solution.

Detroit Lions (3-5)

Three years into the Matt Patricia era, the Lions are exactly the same team they were when he started. Matthew Stafford is enough to achieve basic competence on offense, which keeps them from the very bottom of the NFL’s basin. The overall weakness of their roster and the utter ineptitude of their coaching staff is enough to make sure they don’t even sniff a playoff appearance.

I’m not sure why Patricia is still the coach. I expect they’ll fire him at the end of this season, but counting on the Lions is usually a foolish decision. This team is undisciplined, untalented, and bland in every schematic way. And now that O’Brien is no longer in Houston, Patricia is the clearest example that Bill Belichick’s style doesn’t work without Bill Belichick’s football genius. No one will be upset to see the Lions move on from their coach if they make that (correct) decision this offseason.

 

Tanking Season

These two teams want to lose, and they are going to meet those expectations. Stripped of talent, they hope to get a shot of one of the top quarterbacks from this year’s draft, so they can start over from scratch in 2021 and forget this entire season ever happened.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)

We are a long way from the opening week victory over the Colts that briefly convinced us that the Jaguars might not be completely terrible. A couple lifeless months have passed, and now the Jaguars look unlikely to get even one more victory. Their remaining schedule is brutal, and they’re juggling the quarterback position with a banged up Gardner Minshew potentially not even holding off rookie Jake Luton.

It doesn’t really matter who they play at quarterback the rest of this year. The Jaguars will likely be in position to take one of the top two quarterbacks in next year’s draft, which will allow them to finally start fresh. They’ve torn down the roster that stumbled into an AFC Championship appearance three years ago, and this offseason they will finally (hopefully) part ways with Doug Marrone and rebuild from scratch around their new quarterback.

New York Jets (0-9)

I don’t know what else there is to say about this team. There have been worse teams in recent memory, but I’m not sure I can remember a team quite this hopeless. They have no talent, but they also seem to underperform their talent each week. The only potential bright spots on their team are Quinnen Williams and Mekhi Becton, their two most recent first-round picks who at least give them something to build around when they start over next year.

There’s not much point left to the rest of the season for this team. I certainly hope there is no chance that they bring Adam Gase back next year, and unless they somehow win their way out of the top two picks, I don’t think Sam Darnold will return either. The remainder of the season is honestly just an opportunity for their players to demonstrate they might have some value next year for a team that isn’t completely lost.