We are now a month away from the NFL Draft, which means it’s time to begin my annual process of breaking down the top players available this year. Unfortunately, this isn’t the most exciting year I’ve had to break down. The draft class feels weak this year, especially at the top. It feels like we’re missing the typical top 5 elite-of-the-elite prospects, which means every player below is going to be bumped up a few slots higher than their true value.
I’m going to start today with the running back position. This is always a tough group to break down, because there are rarely any running backs worth being selected in the first round. And that is extra true this year. Recently there has been buzz that one back might sneak into the final few picks of opening night, but that would be a mistake for whoever drafts him.
The
group this year is a handful of players who will have value as rotation pieces
in the NFL, but no one who will truly carry the position on his shoulders.
There are a lot of different styles and a lot of options on days two and three
of the draft, and ultimately picking between these backs is more a matter of stylistic preference than any clearcut difference in talent.
Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M
This is a perfect example of what I mean by personal preference. To me, Spiller is the clear best back in this draft class and the only one worthy of going in the second round, because I really value what a running back brings to the passing game. And Spiller is the best option in that area.
As a route-runner he still has some room to improve, but the physical ability is there, and he is a natural catching the football, able to transition from receiver to runner without missing a beat. Even more impressive is what he brings to the table as a pass protector. He has a tremendous understanding of protections and pretty much always makes the right reads, and he has the physical ability to step up and stone a blitzer in his tracks. Spiller can make an impact immediately as a third-down rotation back, and he has the ability to develop into a true three-down option.
Spiller brings plenty to the table as a runner as well. His most impressive asset is his speed, which allows him to break big runs when he gets to the second level and to threaten defenses by bouncing to the edge. He isn’t going to bowl people over with his physicality, but he’s strong enough to slide through arm tackles and pick up and extra couple of yards.
There is some shiftiness to Spiller’s game, and in space he can make people miss, even if he doesn’t quite have the acceleration to really create big plays on his own. He’s at his best making a single cut in the backfield and attacking downhill. He has excellent vision and patience, reading the second level of defenses to set them up before exploding through the hole. Every now and then he creates more trouble for himself dancing in the backfield, but that’s something he can clean up as he develops into a true number one option in the NFL.
Breece Hall, Iowa State
Hall is the player I mentioned earlier as the one who might sneak his way into the end of the first round. And on paper, I can see the case for it. He’s the most productive running back available in this year’s draft, with over 3000 yards his last two years in college. And he put on a show at the Combine as well, demonstrating a rare combination of size and speed that no one else in this class can boast.
The size and power are certainly evident when I watch him on the field, as he plows between the tackles and finishes almost every run forward. When he gets into space he can bounce through tacklers and keep moving forward, and he has enough shiftiness to avoid taking too many head-on shots. His top end speed appears to match the 4.39 he put up in his forty yard dash, as he can run away from defenders once he gets to the second level.
The one part of the game that still doesn’t make sense is his lack of burst. When he reaches top speed he can look fast on the field, but it takes him a while to get there, and too often he ends up corralled for little or no gain when it feels like he should have gotten more. He doesn’t have the ability to outrun defenders to the edge, or to be at top speed by the time he hits the hole. Within five yards of the line of scrimmage, he just looks kind of sluggish.
The frustrating thing is that his testing numbers suggest the explosiveness is there. He has a 40-inch vertical leap and a 10’6” broad jump, both insanely good numbers for any running back much less one of his size. Why this doesn’t translate to the field is hard to say, but it’s enough to give me pause about everything I wrote in the earlier paragraph. I still have my doubts about him—the tape I saw was real, and it would be a little easier to take the risk if he offered anything in the passing game—but the chance that this glaring hole in his game might not actually be a hole gives him upside higher than anyone else in this class, and I’d be willing to take a shot at him in the third round.
Kenneth Walker, Michigan State
Walker is actually smaller than both the backs I have above him, but he plays much bigger on the field, bouncing off contact and dishing out punishment. He usually finishes forward, and he can pick up tough yards between the tackles in short yardage situations. His speed is impressive as well, as he ran a 4.38 forty and shows it on the field. He doesn’t get up to top speed as quickly as elite backs, but once he makes it there he can absolutely wreck angles and turn medium gains into huge plays.
As a runner there are some areas of his game that still need polish. His vision is occasionally shaky, and he’ll miss some opportunities just trying to plow into contact instead. He isn’t the shiftiest back, and he takes a few too many hits head-on rather than being able to slide to the side. With a good offensive line he will be a very productive running back, but I worry he doesn’t have the initial burst to create if things get messy in the backfield.
Even with these flaws, the tools he possesses would make me tempted to grab him in the second round, if only he was simply average in the passing attack. But right now that is a major hole in his game. He doesn’t do much as a receiver, and while he gives good effort as a pass blocker, it’s definitely not a strength of his. These are areas that a lot of young running backs struggle with and have to develop in the NFL, and if he can add it to his game he can blossom into a truly elite running back as someone like Jonathan Taylor has. But that’s a gamble, and not the sort I’d be willing to take before the third round.
James Cook, Georgia
Cook didn’t get a lot of opportunity to show off as part of a deep running back rotation at Georgia, but there were enough flashes to suggest he might be able to make something out of a bigger role in the NFL. Unlike a couple of the others above, his initial step is very good, and he gets to his top speed in a hurry. This burst allows him to stop suddenly and make sharp cuts without having to worry about losing speed, because he can pick it up again in a hurry as soon as he figures out where he wants to go.
Cook will be good in a zone scheme that lets him use his decisive cutting to make the most out of the space in front of him. His vision is pretty good, and if he can hit a backside lane he can run away from the entire defense. He doesn’t really break tackles or make people miss in space, but he’s good at aiming for small gaps to at least be able to fall forward and avoid negative plays.
Cook’s game is similarly unproven-but-intriguing as a receiver. He had a few good blitz pickups in the tape I watched, as well as a few good routes down the field. They were sprinkled in among plays where he did basically nothing, but they show the ceiling of what he can become. Given the opportunity and the right training, and he could become a top running back a couple years down the road. He’ll never blow you away with his ability, but he’s the sort of useful player you can feel okay grabbing in the fourth or fifth round.
Kyren Williams, Notre Dame
Williams is a prospect that I’ve kind of had to talk myself out of. Because on first view, it’s hard for me not to love watching a back who does all the little things well. He is extraordinary in pass protection, making excellent reads of the field to identify free rushers and stepping forward to absolutely stone them in their tracks. He is decent as a receiver as well, with moments of good route running and some ability after the catch. He’s the sort of running back who is never going to do anything negative. He doesn’t blow assignments, he doesn’t get into trouble dancing in the backfield, and he didn’t fumble the ball once in three years in college.
The problem with Williams is that there is basically nothing to his game besides the little things. He simply doesn’t have the physical tools to be a reliable NFL running back. He weighed in at the Combine at only 195 pounds, and he was in the 30th percentile or lower in every athletic test he did. His lack of athleticism shows on the field as well, where he simply doesn’t have the burst to take advantage of opportunities that are presented to him. He’s a strong runner who has excellent balance, and he can slide through some arm tackles. But at that point he simply doesn’t have the acceleration he needs to make something of the space he’s given himself.
Williams’s advanced skill and underwhelming athleticism make him easy to project to the NFL. He’s a third-down back only, someone who will help his team whenever he gets on the field but will never have enough to be more than second or third on the depth chart. He’d be a good pickup for a pass-heavy team looking for someone who can provide an immediate impact in that role, but even then it’s hard to justify using a pick before the fifth round on someone who has no potential to develop into a starter.
