Free Agent Bargains

The NFL season officially begins on Tuesday at 3 pm with the opening of free agency. I don’t know about you, but I am already sick of not having football. Onto the 2014 season!

Free agency is one of the more awkward periods of the offseason. For a couple of days everyone watches with bated breath as the teams compete to overpay the top available free agents. This year we will see players like Eric Decker, Brandon Albert, Aqib Talib, and Michael Bennett given much more money than they deserve. We will have to spend the next couple years hearing their new teams grumble about how terrible these players are while they put up solidly above average seasons, all because the teams couldn’t control themselves in the free market of free agency.

The much smarter way to play free agency is to avoid the top players and target the bargains available once the initial frenzy has worn down. The two teams represented in last year’s Super Bowl were fine examples of this, represented by players such as Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Dominque Rodgers Cormartie, Shaun Phillips, and Terrence Knighton. All these players signed for significantly less money than they were worth, and the teams were able to do so because they were patient in free agency and didn’t waste all their money outbidding for the top players.

I’ve looked through the list of available free agents and selected ten I think could make extremely good bargains. I included where they were listed on NFL.com’s list of free agents, and I made a completely arbitrary cutline at number 15. These are the players below that line who could make some teams very happy next year.

As you read this, it is important to keep in mind that there likely won’t be as many great bargains this year as there were last year. Between 2012 and 2013 season the cap remained mostly steady, meaning only a select few teams could take part in the free agency frenzy. This year the cap rose by nearly $10 million. Teams with a little cap space suddenly have a lot of cap space, and teams that were tight to begin with can easily make enough space to go after a top free agent (except Carolina. Carolina is screwed.) Last year the small cap meant many players were squeezed into taking short term deals below what they were worth. This year, teams that miss out on the top players will give big contracts to the middle tier free agents, because what the hell else were they supposed to do with that money?

Note: Both Everson Griffen and Red Bryant have already signed new contracts. They did so after I had written them up, so I decided to keep them in and offer brief commentary on the deals that were reached.

Henry Melton (17)

DT Bears

A year ago Melton was one of the top available free agents. Only 26 years old, he had established himself as one of the top young defensive talents in the league. A former college running back (as they will inform you during any Bears game you watch) many felt Melton was only scratching the surface of his potential. The Bears tried to sign him long term but were forced to rely on the franchise tag when a deal couldn’t be reached. This actually looked like it would work out for Melton, considering the dismal market for free agent defensive linemen last year. Spend another year showing what he was capable of, and he could have been the top free agent in the 2014 class, a target of all the teams flush with cash.

But then, in Week 3 against the Steelers, he tore his ACL. His loss was probably the most significant on a defense that was brutalized by injuries, and it has become clear how important he was to the team. But the ACL injury is the sort that still scares people, despite the strong success some players have had returning from it. There are still too many athletes who have struggled to get up to speed (RGIII) or suffered another injury as a follow up (not to pile on Chicago sports fans, but Derrick Rose…) Melton will still receive a large contract based on upside, but if he can return to the player he was he will outperform whatever he’s earning.

Everson Griffen (19)

DE/OLB Vikings

Griffen has excelled as Minnesota's number three defensive end over the past few seasons. Stuck behind the stellar tandem of Brian Robison and Jared Allen, Griffen still managed to put up 8 sacks in 2012 and 5.5 in 2013. They played him primarily in passing situations lined up at defensive tackle, but this past season he received more reps as part of a normal defensive end rotation. He is ready and capable of moving into a more prominent role, and he will get his opportunity this year.

Griffen is a phenomenal athlete with great upside as a pass rusher. He has the speed to run around a tackle, the strength to push his way past one, and a spin move that can give him a free lane to the quarterback. Watching film of him, I was highly impressed with his skill as a run defender. He gets good leverage and keeps contain, but he also has the strength to move a blocker and bounce down inside to make the tackle. The Vikings have shown a strong interest in keeping him around to take the place of the departing Allen, but he might be better suited to go to a team that would allow him to use his athleticism as a 3-4 outside linebacker.

On Sunday Griffen agreed to a 5 year $42.5 million new contract with the Vikings. This makes him one of the ten highest paid defensive ends in the league on a per year basis (this should change once players like Michael Johnson, Michael Bennett, and Jared Allen get new deals) despite him having started only one game in his career.  It may be a slight overpayment, but I will reserve judgment until I see the details of the contract. Ideally it would be structured to be frontloaded so most of the guaranteed money comes in the first couple years. This would get the worst of his cap hit out of the way while the team has plenty of cap space and would give them the ability to cut him down the road without great loss if he doesn’t pan out.

Arthur Jones (31)

DE/DT Ravens

In Baltimore Jones played the role of a traditional 3-4 defensive end, meaning that he offered next to nothing as a pass rusher. He didn’t bother trying to penetrate into the backfield, preferring to stand his ground and control the offensive lineman in front of him. This isn’t a failing, merely a matter of scheme, but any team that signs him has to expect more of a defensive tackle than a defensive end. Whenever the Ravens went to the nickel he actually slid down inside, playing over the guard in a front with two down linemen and the outside linebackers walked up on the edge of the line.

But as a defensive tackle, Jones presents a strong presence on a defense. His ability to stand an offensive lineman up allows him to cover the gaps on either side of him and gives the linebackers behind him more space to scrape and make plays. He will be best suited to find a team that played a scheme similar to Baltimore’s, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them retain him. He shouldn’t cost much at all, as any defensive end (even one who plays in a 3-4) isn’t compensated unless he produces a large quantity of sacks.

Walter Thurmond (37)

CB Seahawks

In a deep market of cornerbacks this year, it is very possible to find a quality player at a bargain once the first run of players has completed. Thurmond could be such a player, especially if he spends the first week looking for money of the sort Sam Shields just received. He is leaving Seattle because he believes he deserves to start, and Seattle is letting him go because they churn out quality cornerbacks like a sweatshop. With the bevy of cornerbacks available, teams will have plenty of other options. They will be reluctant to pay for a cornerback who has only started eight games in four years and missed the final quarter of the season last year due to a suspension for a performance enhancing substance.

The team that signs Thurmond will do so because they are trying to recreate Seattle’s defensive scheme. Thurmond isn’t the best player for this—at 5-11 he was the shortest cornerback on the Seahawks roster last year—but teams will hope that he can bring the skills he was taught with him. He played primarily in the slot for Seattle but showed plenty of capability when forced to bounce outside. In his few games he played well enough to start for any other team, but on Seattle it was hard for him to find playing time.

Red Bryant (40)

DE/DT Seahawks

I can think of no better example of a player who will be underpaid because of the league’s failure to recognize the value he brings. Bryant is a natural defensive tackle who can bump out to defensive end, but wherever he plays he does one thing extraordinarily well: stop the run. He is a space eating roadblock who never moves forward or backwards from the line. He stays in place no matter how many men are pushing at him, and he stuffs up the front to allow the linebackers behind him to scrape to the ball.

The reason Bryant will be a bargain is because he is hopelessly lost as a pass rusher. In six seasons in the league he has a total of 3.5 sacks. That just isn’t seen as acceptable for a defensive end in this league, no matter how good he is at stopping the run. It’s why Seattle cut him to open up room to resign Michael Bennett, a player who provides the threat of a pass rush while being almost as good against the run. Whoever signs Bryant will be getting an extraordinary bargain, a dominant player who is paid like a middle of the pack starter.

Since he was a free agent due to his release rather than the expiration of his contact, Bryant was able to sign a 4 year $17 million contract with Jacksonville before the free agent period started. I don’t have much to say on this besides that it was a wonderful signing by the Jaguars. They have been a mess up front for several years, but now they have finally added a worthwhile piece at a cost of less than $5 million a year.

Louis Delmas (48)

S Lions

Delmas was selected by the Lions with the first pick of the second round in 2009. His athleticism and instincts quickly made him into one of the better young players in the NFL, and after two successful seasons to begin his career it looked as if the Lions had finally filled one of the gaping holes in their defense. But over the next two seasons Delmas missed a combined 13 games due to injuries. He started every game in 2013, but the Lions decided to cut him after the season.

Delmas will never develop into the star safety he looked like he could be during his first two seasons, but he can be a contributor on a strong defense provided he stays healthy. He doesn’t create many explosive plays (only five interceptions on his career) but he does a solid job handling whatever responsibilities he is given. He tackles well in space, and he doesn’t let receivers get behind him when responsible for a deep zone. His injury history will allow his next team to sign him at a bargain rate.

Zane Beadles (65)

G Broncos

The offensive line in Denver never received the credit it deserved, especially the interior of the line. By now everyone knows how masterful Manning is at moving within the pocket, but they don’t appreciate how essential it is for a line to maintain that pocket. The guards and the center need to be able to hold their ground to give room for the quarterback to step up, and Denver’s interior excelled at that last year. Right guard Louis Vasquez was selected first team All Pro, and center Manny Ramirez did an excellent job for a third stringer forced into starting duty. Beadles was probably the worst of the three interior players, but he was still an important piece of the highest scoring offense in NFL history.

Beadles wasn’t ideally suited for Denver’s offensive scheme. He excels in run blocking, particularly when he can get to the second level. Denver spent most of the time throwing the ball, and when they did run they usually forced Beadles to block a defensive tackle directly in front of him. They rarely asked him to pull, but he was incredibly successful when given the opportunity. His weakness is in pass blocking, as he occasionally struggles with blitz recognition and pickup. He is still only 27 years old, and whichever team signs him will be getting a talented young player with room to grow.

Chris Clemons (67)

S Dolphins

Clemons is one of the most versatile safeties in the league. He played a number of roles in Miami’s secondary, alternating between covering a deep zone and running up into the box. He appears comfortable no matter where he is placed on the field. He has the physicality and mentality to attack against the run, and he has the speed to play back as the single deep safety in a Cover-1.

At 28 years of age, Clemons has already established the sort of player he is in this. He lacks the raw potential of many younger defensive backs, and teams will be reluctant to give him a massive contract despite his years of stellar play. He doesn’t make a lot of splash plays (only four interceptions in his five year career) but he is a solid role player a top team would love to have on their roster.

Chris Cook (75)

CB Vikings

I am probably the last Vikings fan who still has any positive feelings towards Chris Cook. Any who didn’t turn against him when he choked his fiancée did so when they found out that only one other player has gone as many starts without an interception to begin a career. The final straw came in their Week 13 game against the Bears when he was twice burned for touchdowns by Alshonn Jeffery before being ejected from the game for making contact with a referee. But let’s take a moment to look at those two touchdowns.

There we see why some team will sign Cook, and why that team may just get more than what they paid for. He had excellent coverage on each of these plays, but he just couldn't finish the job. Cook is a long, athletic cornerback who is still only 27 years old. He has good coverage instincts and technique, though he was often misused in Minnesota’s Tampa-2 system. His biggest problem is his inability to play the ball while it’s in the air. This is a serious problem for a cornerback, but it’s one that can be resolved by coaching. The ideal fit for him would be Seattle, an organization that has specialized in taking physically impressive athletes and coaching them into successful football players.

Kenny Britt (101)

WR Titans

I know, I know. Britt was maybe the worst player in football last season, and Tennessee is thrilled to send him on his way. He was a disappointment on the field and a malcontent off it, and it actually wouldn’t be a surprise if he never played in the NFL again. Many teams will take him out of consideration altogether considering how his time in Tennessee ended.

But there only needs to be one team that is interested to keep his career alive, one team that sees promise in a 6-3, 215 pound receiver who looked to be a budding star only a couple years ago. From that point it is entirely up to Britt. Will he mature into a capable member of a team? Will he develop his raw potential into a quality football player? Probably not, but there is enough upside to get a team to wager a million dollars on a one year contract.