Franchise Tag

The Super Bowl is behind us, and it is time to move on to the 2014 season. Though the official start of the season isn't until free agency opens on March 11, tomorrow is the first major event of the year. Starting tomorrow teams can begin handing out franchise tags to a free agent from their team, locking them up for next season.

The rules of the franchise tag are complicated, but here is a crash course. Each team is allowed to franchise one player a season. A player who is tagged is forced to sign a one year contract worth either the average of the five highest paid players at their position or their previous year's salary multiplied by 1.2, whichever is higher. The teams like this because it allows them to force a player to stay with their team for another year. The players don't like it, especially after injuries last season to franchised players like Henry Melton, Michael Johnson, and Anthony Spencer severely hurt their values for long term deals.

I've gone through the teams in the league, looked through their free agents, and picked out those I think most likely to receive the franchise tag. Some of these will be tagged and some won't be. There may even be a couple players who aren't on this list that end up getting the tag. But these are the most obvious contenders.

One Year Wonders

These players all had great seasons last year, but that’s pretty much all they have on their resume. If they can perform consistently at this high level they could be extremely valuable, but they could also regress to a more standard level next season. Their teams will use the franchise tag to get a better idea of what sort of players they are dealing with.

Dallas Cowboys: DT Jason Hatcher

Tag Value: $9.2 million

Hatcher is the best example of this category. Drafted in 2006, he toiled through seven years of mediocrity before an explosive contract season in which he accumulated career highs in sacks, tackles, and forced fumbles. When Sean Lee was out of the lineup he was the best player on the Cowboys’ defense. He did everything you would expect from someone who was about to receive a big contract, but it is hard to ignore the first seven years of his career. Was last season just a fluke, or was his increase in production a replicable result of his move from a 3-4 defensive end to a 4-3 defensive tackle? With the terrible contracts already weighing Dallas’s finances down, the smart thing to do is to give him another year to prove that he deserves a long term extension.

Denver Broncos: CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Tag Value: $11.3 million

Rodgers-Cromartie is the first of three cornerbacks to fall into this category. Denver signed him to a one year “prove it” deal before last season, and he certainly earned a bigger payday this time around. A former first round pick who disappointed after being traded to the Eagles, he arrived in Denver with mixed expectations and became one of their better defensive players. By the time the Super Bowl rolled around he was the only competent player left in Denver’s secondary. With Chris Harris coming off a torn ACL and Champ Bailey a shell of himself, it would be devastating if they lost Rodgers-Cromartie from their secondary.

New England Patriots: CB Aqib Talib

Tag Value: $11.3 million

Talib was in a similar situation to Rodgers-Cromartie after being shipped out of Tampa Bay. New England gave him a chance, and he absolutely lived up to it during the first half of the season. He was one of the best cornerbacks in the league, shutting down the opposing team’s top receiver week in and week out. But as the season wore on he struggled with injuries, and he was only a marginal contributor in the playoffs. New England will want to see more than an eight game sample of dominance before they reward him with a large contract. I could also see them not bothering to keep him around, deciding that they like the young talent they discovered in their secondary this season.

Tennessee Titans: CB Alterraun Verner

Tag Value: $11.3 million

Verner is another cornerback who got off to a hot start before fading down the stretch, but he is probably the best player of the three in this category. He and Jurrell Casey led a defensive resurgence in Tennessee this season, and partnered with Jason McCourty he gives Tennessee one of the best cornerback tandems in the league. But the strength they have at that position might be enough to convince the Titans to let him walk, especially with the expensive price of the franchise tag. They may not have seen enough of him to justify that expense, not when they have suitable options to replace him.

Long Term Uncertainty

The players in this category have all demonstrated their value at the NFL level over the course of their careers. But because of injury or age, their teams are unwilling to commit to a long term deal. This is the worst situation for a player to find themselves in, but it’s great for the teams trying to squeeze one more season out of a player they aren’t certain is part of their long term future.

Chicago Bears: CB Charles Tillman, DT Henry Melton

Tag Value: $11.3 million, $9.2 million

Teams can only give out one franchise tag, but either Melton or Tillman could get it in Chicago. Melton was tagged last year when they were unable to reach a long term deal, and then he tore his ACL in Week 3. On a defense that suffered a number of injuries this season, you could make a strong case this was the worst of them. They aren’t set on whether or not they will bring him back, but before his injury he was one of the best defensive tackles in the league. They may use the tag to see how he bounces back before trying a long term deal.

The more likely route is that they use the tag on Tillman, another player who suffered through injuries last season. Tillman is the best player in Chicago’s secondary when healthy, but he is starting to get up there in years. He’ll be 33 when the next season starts, and he only played eight games last year. They don't want to give him more than two or three years, so they will be forced to make do with the franchise tag.

Miami Dolphins: CB Brent Grimes

Tag Value: $11.3 million

Grimes was among the least heralded of Miami’s free agent signings last season, but he probably ended up being the best of them. Like Rodgers-Cromartie and Talib he was given a one year deal, and he had a similarly impressive season. Unlike those two, Grimes is in his thirties and has an extensive injury history. He played more games last season than he did in the previous two combined. Miami would probably prefer to give him a two or three year deal—especially considering the price of the franchise tag—but they may not be able to convince him to settle for something so short term.

Washington Redskins: OLB Brian Orakpo

Tag Value: $11.5 million

Washington was a mess last season, and Orakpo had as much to do with that as anyone (including RGIII and the Shanahans.) A former first round pick who made the Pro Bowl each of his first two seasons, Orakpo missed most of 2012 due to a torn ACL. He was supposed to return in 2013 as a playmaking force on their defense, joining with Ryan Kerrigan to form one of the top pass rushing duos in the league. Instead he was a disaster, at least at the start of the season. He showed some flashes as the season went on, and the Redskins may consider franchising him to see if he can be the dominant force they were hoping for. If not, they can let him go after next year.

Kansas City Chiefs: OT Branden Albert

Tag Value: $11.1 million

The plan in Kansas City was fairly straightforward. They used the franchise tag on Albert last year before drafting Eric Fisher with the first overall selection. They entertained notions of trading Albert, but when it became clear Fisher wasn’t ready to immediately step in and play left tackle they decided to keep him around for another year. The intention was to let him walk in free agency, and that is likely still what they will do. The problem is that Fisher showed very few signs of being ready to move over to the left side even after one season. Albert will likely escape the franchise tag, but Kansas City could consider retaining him to give Fisher another year without the pressure of protecting the blind side.

Baltimore Ravens: TE Dennis Pitta

Tag Value: $6.7 million

Pitta missed most of last season following a dislocated hip, and the Ravens’ offense clearly missed him. Torrey Smith is their only competent wide receiver, but he specializes in running deep routes down the sideline that are only productive a couple plays a game. With Ray Rice’s bizarre drop in productivity, they absolutely need a tight end as a release valve in the middle of the field. Pitta’s injury will scare them away from giving a long term contract, but they absolutely have to retain him going into next season if they want their offense to have any chance of success.

Negotiations Have Failed

Unlike in the previous two groups, the teams in this category are confident that they want these players around for years to come. The problems arise when the two sides aren’t able to come together to figure out a long term solution. They will use the franchise tag in order to steal another year for negotiations. Maybe they’ll be able to sign them next year, or maybe they will have to let them go.

Buffalo Bills: S Jairus Byrd

Tag Value: $8.3 million

Byrd is one of the best safeties in the league, but the Bills have struggled to find a way to reach a long term deal with him. The team doesn’t value safeties as high as the rest of the league does, and they are unwilling to pay him what he thinks he’s worth. They used the franchise tag on him last year, meaning it will only be more expensive to use it again this year. As essential as Byrd is to their secondary, Buffalo may choose to let him walk rather than paying the expensive tag value.

Cleveland Browns: S T.J. Ward, C Alex Mack

Tag Value: $8.0 million, $11.1 million

Like Chicago, the Browns have a couple of possibilities for their franchise tag. Ward is an athletic, hard hitting safety who has played a crucial role in the development of one of the league’s better defenses. They have tried to work out a long term deal with him, but it looks like they have a bit more work to do to figure the specifics out. The franchise tag would give them another year to work out a long term contract.

Mack is probably a better player than Ward, but it appears unlikely the team will use the tag on him. It would cost them an extra $3 million, and they haven’t shown that they are particularly interested in bringing him back. He played through this last season with only minimal contract negotiations, but that was under a different head coach and a different general manager. It is possible that the new team in charge may consider bringing him back for another year.

Oakland Raiders: DT Lamarr Houston

Tag Value: $9.1 million

The Raiders have one established quality player on their defense, and that is Houston. He plays a crucial role in their hybrid defense, bouncing between defensive tackle and defensive end and holding strong at whatever position he plays. Losing him would make their defense an even bigger joke than it already is. They have plenty of cap room to franchise him while still having enough to pursue other valuable free agents. As a player he may not be worth the full price of the tag, but to the Raiders he is crucial.

Carolina Panthers: DE Greg Hardy

Tag Value: $12.5 million

Hardy established himself last year as one of the best defensive ends in league. In addition to his fifteen sacks he was as stout as any edge rusher against the run. He has the versatility to play in any number of schemes, and if he makes it to free agency he will make a lot of money. Carolina wants to sign him to a long term deal, but their cap situation makes it unfeasible. Their other defensive end, Charles Johnson, is counting more than $16 million against their cap next year. DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert are all overpaid. And they have to find some way to fit an extension for Cam Newton in sometime in the next couple years. If they can franchise Hardy, they might be able to make room under the cap for him next year by cutting Johnson and Tolbert.

Jimmy Graham

New Orleans Saints: TE/WR Jimmy Graham

Tag Value: $6.7 million/$11.6 million

Jimmy Graham is the most fascinating case of all the players on this list, which is why he gets a separate category. He is among the best in the league at his position (whatever position that might be) and the Saints absolutely cannot afford to lose him. They understand it as well, which is why they have made no secret of the fact that they will franchise him. That’s where the complications begin.

Graham has been listed as a tight end ever since he came into the league, and the natural assumption is that he will be classified as a tight end for purposes of the label. But Graham and his agent disagree, claiming that he is actually a wide receiver and is thus entitled to the more valuable tag that accompanies that position. They have a strong case to be made, considering that Graham lines up either split out or in the slot on almost every play he’s in the game. New Orleans doesn’t bother asking him to block, and when they want to run they normally take him off the field. If it wasn’t for his designation as a tight end, anyone watching the Saints play would likely assume that he is just a massive and talented wide receiver.

This isn’t the first time such a debate has occurred. In 2008 the Ravens attempted to franchise Terrell Suggs as an outside linebacker, but he claimed that since he rushed the passer on most plays he should be considered a defensive end. The difference between those positions was only $800,000, but it was significant enough to get the league to create a new designation of defensive end-outside linebacker, giving him the average of the two tags.

Will such a compromise occur in this case? Probably not. I believe that Graham should be listed as a wide receiver, but he will likely only receive tight end money. This saves New Orleans some space, but it could cost them in the long run. Franchising Graham gets them only one more season of control, and a year from now they will have to go through this all over again. It is probably in their best interests to keep Graham as happy as possible in the hopes of signing him to a long term deal in the future.