Offensive Draft Prospects

As a Vikings fan I have spent most of the past few weeks thinking and writing about the quarterbacks available in the draft. Recently I was made aware that there are in fact players at other positions available as well. In light of this new information, I decided to take some time to study the players likely to go in the first round (plus some of the running backs!) using the videos kindly made available by Draft Breakdown. This week I focused on the offensive side of the ball, breaking the available players into position groups then ranking them based on what I saw on film and their results from the combine. 
 

Offensive Linemen

Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

Matthews is the most complete offensive tackle available in this draft. He isn’t on Taylor Lewan’s level as a pass blocker or Greg Robinson’s as a run blocker, but he boasts a better combination of both aspects of the game. His technique as a pass blocker is solid, though his initial step is smaller than ideal and occasionally leaves him exposed to speed rushes from the edge. Once he is engaged, he keeps himself on balance and stays engaged with the pass rusher, only occasionally getting his hands outside his frame.

His slight inferiority to Lewan as a pass blocker is made up for by his abilities in the running game. He gets good push leading at the point of attack, but he truly excels when asked to play in space. He isn’t as athletic as Robinson or Lewan, but he knows how to handle himself against smaller, quicker defenders. He meets them head on and buries them, giving them no opportunity to slip past and get involved in the play. A smart offensive coordinator will know how to use this to his full advantage, calling for pulls and screens as often as possible to get Matthews matched up against linebackers and safeties.

Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

If you want an offensive tackle who will swallow pass rushers whole, Lewan is your guy. He is every bit athletic as the more heralded Robinson, and his technique is nearly flawless. He uses his hands better than any other tackle in the draft, and once he is engaged with a pass rusher the play is essentially over. Michigan’s struggles in pass protection this past year had nothing to do with him—it was a common sight to see him holding his ground while the rest of the line crumbled behind him.

Lewan’s strength is in pass protection, but he is a capable run blocker as well. He doesn’t produce the same movement as Robinson, but he keeps engaged and knows how to position himself between the defender and the play. He has fallen in the draft due to some character concerns, but these shouldn’t scare teams away. Lewan boasts the best combination of athleticism and technique of any tackle in this draft, and he will lock down the blind side of whatever team drafts him for years to come.

Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame

Every year there are several players who go in the first round by virtue of being solid, reliable selections. They don’t do anything spectacular and have little chance of developing into an elite player, but a team will settle for them once the truly elite prospects are off the board. Martin is the premier example of this in this year’s draft. Compared to the other three tackles he can’t match up—his athleticism and size fall short of all three, and his technique has too many flaws to make up for these shortcomings. But there are few real holes in his game, and even if he can’t play left tackle in the league he can find a spot playing on the right side or at guard.

Martin gets decent push in the run game, but he sometimes struggles to maintain his blocks. He rarely gets beaten by the initial surge in pass protection, but a rusher with a good secondary move can beat him. He has a habit of stopping his feet once he’s established position, and a good edge rusher can spin off the contact or run upfield around him. When he is beaten, Martin lacks the athleticism to recover his base as others in the draft class can. Instead he simply grabs hold and hopes to escape the referees’ notice. For these reasons, and because of his physical shortcomings, Martin will never be a consistent Pro Bowl player at tackle. But he should be able to lock down a long term position on the line of whichever team drafts him.

David Yankey, OG, Stanford

NFL teams are becoming increasingly aware of the value of guards. Last year two guards went in the top ten of the draft, and while there aren’t players with that sort of talent available this year, a team in the late first or early second round will see a long term starter fall into their lap. Yankey is the best run blocker among the top offensive linemen in this draft, better even than Robinson. He is physically overpowering when asked to block a man directly ahead of him, but he truly excels when given the opportunity to move and block in the open field. His athleticism isn’t spectacular, but he knows how to use proper angles to cut off linebackers on the second level. He moves well along the line of scrimmage when asked to pull, either kicking out on a trap block or leading up the hole like a fullback. He regularly buries defenders who get in front of him when he has a head of steam built up.

Yankey’s struggles come in pass protection, where he can be occasionally beaten by a defensive lineman with good lateral quickness. He also gives up more ground than you would like to see from a guard. This wasn’t a major problem at Stanford, where he blocked in front of a mobile quarterback and surrounded by some of the best offensive line talent in college football. It could pose difficulties in the NFL, if he isn’t surrounded by a supporting cast who can adapt to a shrinking pocket.

Greg Robinson, OL, Auburn

I’ve watched more film of Robinson than any of these other players, and I still don’t get it. I realize that he is a physical specimen, but I can’t understand why some people believe he could go second overall. I would hesitate to select him in the top half of the first round, much less in the top five. He is an athletic marvel who dominates in the running game, and many coaches believe they can teach any amount of technique as long as they are given a competent athlete. And while it is true that any offensive lineman will require development at the NFL level (as evidenced by the struggles of Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, and Lane Johnson last season) it is impossible to ignore the fact that Robinson has no idea how to pass block.

Auburn’s offense was designed around an option running attack, and on the rare occasion they dropped back to pass they preferred to have their backs and tight ends deal with the edge rushers while Robinson blocked the inside gap. He only dropped back into a traditional pass set on a handful of occasions, and these usually had disastrous results. In one play I saw on the film, he failed to make any contact whatsoever with the oncoming defensive end. While his inability to pass protect is his greatest flaw, there are several other red flags that would steer me away from Robinson. As dominant he is as a point of attack blocker, he is utterly lost when asked to block in open space. He is also consistently the last player to react to the snap of the ball, which will only further aggravate his technical shortcomings as a pass blocker. It is difficult to ignore the raw athletic potential of Robinson, but when I watch him play I see a player who likely will not be able to play tackle in the NFL.

Xavier Su’a-Filo, OG, UCLA

Su’a-Filo will likely go before Yankey in the draft, and again this comes down to athleticism. He is significantly faster and stronger than Yankey, and it shows in pass protection. He holds his ground better when facing a bull rush and does a slightly better job of moving his feet to stay between a rusher and the quarterback. The one area he needs to improve is general awareness. He was consistently victimized by stunting defensive linemen, not moving off the defensive tackle until the looping defensive end was already past him and in the quarterback’s face. This is something that can be easily fixed with study and practice.

More concerning are his shortcomings in the running game. He rarely blows defenders backwards, and he has a bad habit of trying too hard and playing out of control. Sometimes he will fire off the ball with his head down and let a defensive lineman run past into the backfield. When he gets into open space he looks lost and confused, and he is often just as likely to get in the way of his ballcarrier as he is to block a defender. I don’t think he is worth a first round pick, and if he does end up going that high his team will have to be patient to let him develop through his weaknesses.

Receivers

Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

Watkins is the best wide receiver in the draft, and he should not fall outside of the top five. He has a rare combination of athleticism and physicality that puts him a level above the other offensive skill position players in the draft. He has the speed to stretch the field vertically and to create separation with defenders, making up for routes that can occasionally get a little sloppy. While he doesn’t possess truly special lateral quickness, his physicality makes him an above average runner with the ball in his hands. If he can’t run around a defender, he is capable of running through him. This physicality will also help him fight off press coverage at the next level, though he faced very little of this during his college years.

The one area in which he is truly fun to watch is catching the ball. He snatches it out of the air as soon as it is within reach, never letting it get into his chest or his stomach. He is capable of making catches outside the frame of his body, and the only drops I have seen him make are a result of turning his head upfield too quickly. The one thing he does have to work on is improvisation. His quarterback at Clemson extended a lot of plays with his legs, but Watkins rarely was able to find holes in the defense past his initial route. He usually just settled in place, hovering in front of a defender rather than trying to get open. This is a minor concern, easily correctable with coaching. Watkins is a rare talent in that he is both the surest prospect and the player with the highest upside at his position. He will be a top receiver in the NFL within the next few seasons.

Marqise Lee, WR, USC

Lee was the best receiver in college football in 2012, but after a 2013 season plagued by injuries many have dropped him into the second tier of receivers. He wasn’t helped by a disappointing time in the 40, running nearly a full tenth of a second slower than Watkins. Most current projections place him below Watkins and Evans, and potentially even behind Cooks, Beckham, and Benjamin. That is all ridiculous. Lee is the most polished receiver in the draft, and he is much closer to Watkins than anyone realizes.

Despite a slow 40 time Lee shows plenty of speed on the field, even if he isn’t able to burn past defenders in the same manner Watkins does. He creates his separation by running precise routes with sharp cuts, often crossing defenders’ faces unchallenged and getting open in the middle of the field with vast stretches of running space ahead of him. He is better than Watkins or Evans at running with the ball in his hands, though he lacks the ability to break tackles. He excels with body control, making catches along the sideline that others simply cannot make. He is a complete and dangerous receiver, and I only drop him below Watkins because of his shortcomings in athleticism and occasionally questionable hands. I don’t think it would be a mistake for a team to draft him in the top ten, and I think whoever grabs him later one will be getting an absolute steal.

Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina

Ebron is technically a tight end, but I’ll throw him in with the receivers. He certainly has all the tools necessary to play wide receiver in the NFL, in addition to being big enough and physical enough to line up as a traditional end. He isn’t a great blocker, but he has the potential to develop into one. He can be beaten by an aggressive defender, but he can also look as overpowering as any offensive lineman in the draft. At North Carolina he spent as much time lined up in a three point stance as he did split out in the slot. He should be able to do the same in the NFL, and he will not be a liability as a blocker.

But the reason he is a top prospect is his receiving ability, up there with any tight end that has entered the league over the past five seasons. While he doesn’t have the height of Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, he is a more polished route runner than either of them was coming into the league. Like Watkins he catches almost everything with his hands, holding on no matter how much traffic is around him. He doesn’t have the lateral athleticism to make moves after catching the ball, but if given open space he can outrun most linebackers and safeties. I see him as a very similar player to Mike Evans, and I have him ranked higher largely due to the extra dimension he can add as a blocker.

Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

So much has been made of Evans’s ability to win the jump ball that it has started to seem as if that is the only thing he can do. And while he is still not nearly as polished as most of the other top receivers in the draft, he is more versatile than most people realize. He showed his surprising speed when he ran a 4.53 in the 40 yard dash, roughly the same time as Lee who he outweighs by forty pounds. He isn’t a great route runner, but the separation he creates with his speed combined with his incredible catch radius gives his quarterback a large enough window to fit the ball into. Press coverage is utterly ineffective against him, and unless a team keeps a safety over the top he will produce two or three explosive plays a game.

The smaller plays are his problem, the plays to pick up five or ten yards to keep the chains moving. Because he is so tall defenders can get underneath him, disrupting throws that come in below his shoulders. He needs to learn how to box these defenders out better, which will be easier if he develops better route running skills. He also needs to find the correct balance between physicality and legal play. When engaging with a defender he often uses his size and strength to throw that defender around, which led to a number of offensive pass interference penalties during his time in college. Evans will develop eventually, but he might not have the same immediate impact as Watkins or Lee.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

Cooks is the smallest receiver at the top of the draft, but he is also the fastest. He won the Biletnikoff Award for the best wide receiver in college football, and he shouldn’t have trouble transitioning to the next level. In a lot of ways he is a similar player to Marqise Lee. He runs good routes and has excellent hands. He is probably even better than Lee as a runner after the catch. He doesn’t break many tackles, but he has good lateral acceleration and knows how to find creases between defenders.

Cooks ranks below Lee because he showed less versatility in college, running primarily routes to the outside of the field and rarely heading into the heavy traffic areas across the middle. Someone of his size in the modern NFL will likely spend a great deal of time playing in the slot, where he will have to be able to exploit the middle of a defense. He found some success on the rare occasion he was asked to do this at Oregon State, but he didn’t show enough to indicate that he will consistently be able to create separation on slants and crossing routes in the NFL. For this and other reasons (specifically his utter inability to block) he will likely be better suited spending as little time in the slot as possible. This limits his value, as teams usually prefer to have larger, more physical receivers to play on the outside.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State

I find it somewhat puzzling that Benjamin isn’t getting more appreciation in this draft. He is a very similar receiver to Mike Evans, tall and athletic with tremendous ability to pluck balls out of the air. But where Evans is (somewhat undeservedly) projected as a top ten pick, there is a chance Benjamin could fall out of the first round altogether. Both players have similar downsides—sloppy routes, limited versatility, minimal run after the catch ability—but these problems seem to be held against Benjamin more so than Evans. This isn’t to say that I think he is on the same level as Evans. He ran slower in the 40, and this difference in speed shows on the field. Where Evans can occasionally create separation by running past a defender, most cornerbacks can keep pace with Benjamin. He also isn’t nearly as physical, and he can sometimes be handled by press coverage if a cornerback can get beneath him and get into his chest.

All that said, Benjamin’s strengths can’t be ignored. He is every bit Evans’s equal at winning contested balls, perhaps even his superior. He regularly makes fantastic catches outside the frame of his body, pulling balls away from defenders and spinning to tap his toes on the sideline as he grabs jump balls. There is a place for such a player in the NFL, and the only reason I can see him falling out of the first round is if teams are scared off by questions about his character.

Odell Beckham, WR, LSU

I have seen some projections with Beckham going off the board as the third wide receiver, ahead of Cooks, Benjamin, and even Lee. This is ridiculous. He has decent size and speed, but in every other facet he is merely average. He doesn’t run particularly great routes, and in college he was rarely asked to run anything other than deep patterns and outs. When a ball hits him perfectly he will catch it, but it is rare to see him go outside his frame to make a reception or to fight off a defender on a challenged catch. He doesn’t have the lateral quickness to be a threat with the ball in his hands, though he at least has the sense to realize this and usually attacks straight upfield rather than trying to dance around defenders.

None of this is to say that he isn’t a good player, or that it would be a mistake to draft him in the first round. He does have the potential to be a good player, though I think it is likely that he will max out as a number two or number three receiving option. He is probably a safer bet than either Benjamin or Cooks, but he doesn’t have the upside of any of the other top receivers in the draft.

Running Backs

I need to make this clear before I continue: it is highly likely that none of these players will be taken in the first round. The value of the running back position has disappeared in recent years, and it could be a long time before we see another running back make his way into the top ten of the draft. But the position still needs to be addressed, especially since running backs usually have the greatest immediate impact in the league. These players could go in the second round and turn into another Eddy Lacy or Le'Veon Bell, strong contributors while others in the draft are still developing.

Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State / Jeremy Hill, RB, LSU

The top two running backs available are in a class of their own, and there is very little to separate them. They are both around the same size, and they both ran 4.66 in the 40 at the combine. They are large, physical backs who can work up decent speed if they have space to build their pace up. Neither will make defenders miss in the open field, but they run through arm tackles without trouble due to their strength and balance. As similar as they are, it is hard to say that one is definitively better than the other. Hill shows better ability to get to the edge, but he lacks Hyde’s ability to maneuver between the tackles. Hyde is superior in the passing game, both as a receiver and a blocker. Hill had the benefit of playing in a pro style system during his time in college, and he will have a quicker transition to the NFL. If a team selected him before Hyde, I wouldn’t say they were making a mistake.

I placed Hyde ahead of Hill because of the one area in which he truly separates himself from the other running backs in this draft: vision. Hyde has the ability to find and slip through holes that other running backs don’t see, and he demonstrates the patience to let these holes open. This is what allows him to be so effective on interior runs, and it is why he was so dangerous for Ohio State late in games. He can consistently make it to the second level up the middle, pounding linebackers and safeties over the course of the game until they can no longer take him on. More so than Hill, Hyde is the sort of running back that can carry a team through a game.

Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington / Tre Mason, RB, Auburn

I had similar issues ranking the second tier of running backs as I had with the first. These two are less similar stylistically, but they do have some overlap in their strengths and shortcomings. They are both faster than the two backs ranked ahead of them, though neither poses much threat of breaking tackles. Mason benefited greatly from a strong offensive line at Auburn. He usually faced wide open holes up the middle or sealed perimeters he could cut out to, and he took advantage of these opportunities. His straight line speed is very good, and he almost always finishes falling forward. His biggest problem is a lack of lateral ability, which combined with his inability to break tackles prevents him from creating yards of his own. He is smart enough to realize this and always gets whatever he can from a run, but he doesn’t have the ability to turn a good play into a great one.

The potential for explosive plays is why I have Sankey ranked above Mason. Sankey isn’t nearly as consistent, and he often gets caught flat footed and driven back rather than falling forwards. But his lateral quickness is on another level from the other three running backs. He can make defenders miss in the open field, and once he’s past them they will not catch him. He probably won’t be able to handle the load of a starting running back in the NFL, but he will fit well as a change of pace, third down specialist in the mold of Darren Sproles.