2016 AFC West Preview

Last week I brought you my first two division previews, covering the teams in the NFC and AFC South. This week I move onto the West divisions, starting in the AFC. As before, I’ll take a run at a best case and a worst case scenario for each team, as well as highlighting a lesser known player to keep your eyes on.

I didn’t mention this before, but just in case it isn’t clear, I will be listing these teams in the order I expect them to finish, from best to worst. For the first two divisions this was pretty straightforward. For the AFC West, not so much. This is the most wide open division in the league, and I could conceivably imagine these teams finishing in any of the 24 possible combinations. I picked the one I think is most likely below, but of all the divisions this is the one I will attach the least confidence to.

San Diego Chargers

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In a division that is nearly impossible to project, I’ll lead with the team with the widest variance in possibilities. There are holes all over San Diego’s roster, but there are also a lot of fantastic pieces in place that could come together this year in ways they haven’t in the past. Keenan Allen is healthy, and at his best he is a top ten receiver in the league. Their secondary looks strong with the continued growth of Jason Verrett and the addition of Casey Hayward, and Joey Bosa (whenever his contract situation gets worked out) is the sort of player who can provide an immediate impact. Heck, there’s even a chance Melvin Gordon could step up after a disappointing rookie year.

But what really pushes this team to the top is the quarterback position. Philip Rivers is the best passer in the division, and it isn’t particularly close. He struggled last year behind a miserable offensive line and with no weapons to throw to, and those problems haven’t gone away. But he has the playmaking ability that Alex Smith lacks, the consistency that Derek Carr is still working towards, and the basic understanding of the game of football that Denver’s quarterbacks are still trying to find. It may not be pretty, but in the scrum of the AFC West it’s easy to see Rivers carrying his team a step farther than the others can go.

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The previous section was hardly a ringing endorsement, and I think it’s fair to say that things could go horribly, horribly wrong in San Diego again this year. As much as I like their best players, they are working with a very thin margin of error. Allen, Verrett, and Hayward all have troubling injury histories. Bosa and Gordon have proven nothing on an NFL level. And even Rivers has shown that he can’t carry this team when the pieces aren’t around him.

The Chargers wound up with the third overall selection in last year’s draft, so it’s difficult to say they could do worse. But they really could do worse. A couple injuries, an overall indifference from the players who stay healthy, and a head coach hanging on by a thread, all could lead San Diego to the worst record in the league. If I had to bet on a team to win this division it would be the Chargers. But if I had to bet on a team to finish last, it would probably also be the Chargers.

Player to Watch: Denzel Perryman, LB

San Diego needs someone to step up on their defense. There just isn’t much talent there, and what little is available has to come through for them. Perryman was a second round selection last year, and he saw some playing time as a rookie. He was unspectacular, but he has the talent to step up and become a contributor in his second year.

What San Diego really needs on their defense is an influx of speed. They have too many players who are either old (Flowers) or not particularly athletic (Manti Te’o). Perryman’s athleticism isn’t elite by any means, but he brings more than anyone else on this defense can offer. He likely won’t ever be a Pro Bowl caliber player, but right now San Diego just needs a few capable starters.

Kansas City Chiefs

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Kansas City is the most top to bottom complete team in the division. They have a top caliber running back in Jamaal Charles. They have a quality wide receiver in Jeremy Maclin. They have good pieces at every level of their defense in Dontari Poe, Derrick Johnson, and Eric Berry. And they have a capable if unspectacular quarterback in Alex Smith, which could be enough to win this division.

Depth is the greatest asset for the Chiefs, and that will become apparent as the year rolls along. They may get off to a rough start, but as injuries begin to deplete the other teams they will have the ability to pull out into a comfortable victory. They already have some injury concerns with Charles and star defensive player Justin Houston, but they also have young players like Marcus Peters and Dee Ford in position to become major contributors. The Chiefs are one of the most resilient teams in the league, and with the best head coach in the division they deserve to be called the favorites.

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In a division this wide open, good might not be enough. The Chiefs will probably end the year with 9 or 10 wins, which may be enough to win this division if the other three teams all play to their average level. But the other three teams all have the upside of 11 or 12 win squads, and the odds of all three of these teams failing to reach this potential has to scare some Chiefs fans.

The question we have to ask with Kansas City is: how can they be better than we expect? The answer certainly isn’t Smith, who is as known a quantity as there is in the league. The aging Charles probably can’t carry this team, and it now is starting to look like they won’t have Houston at all this year. They have a lot of good players, but outside of Eric Berry they probably don’t have anyone who is among the ten best in the league at their position, and just one of the other teams breaking through could spoil any hopes Kansas City has.

Player to Watch: Mitchell Schwartz, OT

Kansas City didn’t make a lot of changes to their roster this year, but the biggest addition was undoubtedly Schwartz. Quietly one of the best offensive linemen in the league over the past couple years in Cleveland, Schwartz will be asked to hold down the right side of the offensive line to strengthen a major weakness in Kansas City’s roster.

This is particularly valuable in this division, as the right tackle will spend four games a year facing off against Khalil Mack and Von Miller. Schwartz actually performed remarkably well in his matchup with Miller last year, locking him down as effectively as any tackle in the league. Smith can make some plays with pressure in his face, but like all quarterbacks he’s better when he’s on his feet and comfortable in the pocket.

Denver Broncos

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Yeah, I’m just going to talk about the defense for this one. Sure, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are still one of the best receiver combinations in the league, but who’s going to throw them the ball? Mark Sanchez is a league average passer on his best day, and I think I’ve made my thoughts on Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch well known. The offense is not going to be doing the Broncos any favors, and if they win it will be with their defense.

But man, can they win with their defense. They lost a couple pieces during the offseason, but they still have Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and the deepest secondary in the league. Wade Phillips is a genius of a coordinator, and they will tear opposing quarterbacks apart just as effectively this year as they did last year. They won a Super Bowl with the ghost of Peyton Manning leading their offense, so we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility that they could win the division even if they don’t bother to put a quarterback on the field.

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On the other hand, Denver’s offense could be really, really bad. Their running back situation and offensive line have been atrocious for two years, and they’re not going to get any better now that defenses are keying against them. The Broncos won’t be able to hide behind their running game, which will make things even more difficult for whoever they start at quarterback. I have no idea who it’s going to be, and I don’t think it really matters. My only prediction is that all three start at least one game, and that they go into 2017 just as worried about the position as they are this year.

The one redeeming part of their offense is their receiving corps, and even that has to be viewed with some skepticism. After all, Thomas really didn’t break out until Manning arrived in Denver, and Sanders didn’t have a single 100 yard receiving game in four years playing with Ben Roethlisberger. With the current quarterback situation, it wouldn’t be shocking to see both receivers struggle to reach 1000 yards, giving us an idea of just how valuable Manning was to this offense even last year.

Player to Watch: Virgil Green, TE

The Broncos are going to need some unexpected contributors to step up on their offense, and Green might be their best bet. One of the most athletic tight ends in the league, Green has so far struggled to develop his skills as a receiver. Over hisfirst five years he has amassed only 35 receptions for 379 yards, and he’s far enough along in his career that there are genuine reasons to question whether he’ll ever be more than a blocker.

If he can take the next step, it has to happen this year. Julius Thomas and Owen Daniels are gone, and Green is the presumptive starter at tight end. A big, physical athlete is the perfect weapon for a team with questions at quarterback and on the offensive line. If Green can step up, he will open up passing lanes across the middle of the field and give a relief option to their quarterback, putting new pressures on the defense and potentially giving their receivers more room to work with down the field.

Oakland Raiders

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Along with the Jaguars, the Raiders are the trendy pick of the young teams in the NFL, with many people predicting them to emerge from this weak division as the champion. And looking at this roster, it isn’t difficult to see why. They are loaded with talent, from emerging stars like Khalil Mack to developing youngsters like Amari Cooper to proven veterans like Kelechi Osemele. They have completely revamped their roster over the past two seasons, and they are in a position to take the sort of step we haven’t seen from the franchise in nearly fifteen years.

And to top it off, they may have their franchise quarterback. Derek Carr is one of the most dynamic young quarterbacks in the league, with the arm to make any throw you could ask of him and an impressive sophomore campaign to back it up. He will only get better behind an improved offensive line, and he has the tools to take the leap into the conversation as one of the elite quarterbacks in the league.

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That’s all very positive, so why do I have the Raiders ranked at the bottom of the division? Well first, because margins in this division are razor thin, and the difference between first and last place could be as small as one or two games. And second, because even though the Raiders have a lot of nice pieces, I’m not convinced everything is going to work out as people expect.

Some things are undeniable. Mack is great, and if Cooper can iron out the issues he had with dropping the ball last year, he can be too. But their defense still scares me in a lot of positions, relying on major contributions from players like Bruce Irvin and David Amerson. They can take the next step, but they can also regress sharply, becoming a major weakness for this team.

But my biggest concerns lie where many people feel the Raiders are set for the next decade, and that’s at quarterback. Carr put up stellar numbers last year, but these season totals mask some concerns that arose as the year went along. After throwing 19 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions over the first half of the season, he went 13 and 9 the remainder of the way. This could just be a small bump for a developing player, or it could be genuine regression to the mean. The true answer is probably somewhere in the middle, but even that would be a step back for Carr, who is sneakily old at 25 years of age and may already be nearing the peak of his development curve.

Player to Watch: David Amerson, CB

Amerson is one of the strangest cases in the NFL. I first remember hearing about him his sophomore year at NC State, when he tied an ACC record with 13 interceptions in a single season. Standing 6’3” with incredible ball skills, Amerson looked like a potential top prospect heading into his junior year. But as is often the case with cornerbacks, the interceptions overstated his coverage skills, and a miserable year dropped him to the second round in 2013. Two years later, the Redskins parted ways with him, leaving him as a free agent off the street to be picked up by the Raiders.

And somehow, he was actually pretty damn good last year. Good enough to sign a 4 year $38 million deal, forming the heart of Oakland’s rebuilding secondary. They are putting a lot of faith into a repeat performance, and it will be interesting to see how Amerson stacks up. Is he the big, aggressive cornerback who excelled in college and in his one year in Oakland, or is he the awkward and immobile athlete who washed out of Washington? The back end is the biggest point of concern in Oakland’s defense, and Amerson’s continued growth could really turn the unit into something special.