The first game of the NFL season
is only a month away, and it’s time to get started on my previews for the
season. The format is the same as in previous years, going division by division
to break down each and every team. Starting today with the NFC South, I will
work my way through the NFL giving both a best case scenario and a worst case
scenario for every team in the league. In addition to that, I will highlight
one slightly lesser known player on each roster. Sometimes it will be a player
I expect to break out, sometimes a player whose productivity will swing the
fortune of the team, and sometimes just a player I want a chance to talk about.
As I said above, I’ll be starting
today with the NFC South. Later this week I’ll come through with the AFC South,
and I will aim for two divisions a week through the rest of August. I hope you’re
as excited to have me back as I am to be back.
Let’s get the 2016 NFL season
started!
Carolina Panthers
Half
Full:
This team was one game away from
winning a Super Bowl last year, so it’s not hard to define their ceiling. They
can absolutely win a championship, and there are many reasons to consider them
favorites. They lost only one significant piece from their NFC Championship
roster, and they bring back Kelvin Benjamin after a full season lost to a torn
ACL. He isn’t as good as some believe, but he’s a capable NFL receiver, which
is more than any of their options from last year could claim. The defending MVP
finally has someone to throw the ball to, and that has to be terrifying.
Half
Empty:
I don’t want to do this. Last
year I was extremely low on the Panthers coming into the season, and I spent
most of the year harping on their flaws and waiting for the inevitable shoe to
the drop. It wasn’t until the final month of the season that I accepted that
they were actually a good team, and I’m going to be hesitant to walk that back
right now. But there are still warning signs out there, the flaws they managed
to overcome last year present and still potentially dangerous.
Michael Oher was a pleasant
surprise at left tackle last year, but we have six years of evidence before
that proving that he isn’t a very good NFL player. Their secondary survived
almost entirely due to pressure from the front seven, and then they lost their
best player on the back end in Josh Norman. And as impressive as Cam Newton was
last year, we saw in the Super Bowl that there are still major holes in his
game. When things break down, he isn’t a great improviser, and it’s very likely
that things will break down more this year than they did last.
I will try to temper some of this
pessimism. There are areas I expect Carolina to regress in, but there are other
parts of their team that surprised me last year that I think will hold up. They
have questions at the tackles, but the interior of their offensive line is
among the best in the league. And the same goes on the defensive side, where
Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short will continue to destroy opposing lines. This
is a quality football team, and even if they aren’t fighting for home field
advantage again, they’ll be in the playoff hunt as the season winds down.
Player
to Watch: Kony Ealy, DE
The one area where Carolina could
take a significant step forward this year is in the edge pass rush. Their front
seven was effective enough getting after the passer last year, finishing 11th
in the league in adjusted sack rate. But only 17.5 of their 44 team sacks came
from their defensive ends, with the vast majority of their pressure the product
of either their defensive tackles or blitzers from the edge.
This position has been an issue
for years. Charles Johnson has been disappointing ever since he signed the
contract they meant to give to Julius Peppers (seriously, it will never stop
being funny that Carolina refused to give Peppers 6 years and $84 million, then
the very next year handed Johnson 6 years and $72 million). But they may have
finally found something at this position with Ealy. He had only five sacks his
rookie year, but he was the best player on the field for the Panthers in the
Super Bowl. It isn’t hard to imagine him making a serious leap forward, and
potentially giving the Panthers an even more dangerous front than they had last
year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Half
Full:
Every year it seems like we
expect the Buccaneers to take a step forward, but this could really be the
season. Jameis Winston had a bumpy but overall positive rookie season, and with
an impressive stock of weapons around him, he’s ready to take another step. The young offensive line
will only continue to improve after making significant strides in 2015, and by
the end of the year we could be talking about this as one of the elite offenses
in the NFL.
There are more questionmarks on
the defensive side of the ball, but there are pieces to like there, in addition
to established stars like Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David. And with the
potential of this offense, they only need to be average for this to be a
playoff team. Pushing for the division is an outside possibility, but more
likely than not they’ll compete for a wild card spot down the stretch,
improving as the season goes along and potentially making some noise in the
playoffs.
Half
Empty:
Winston was strong over the
second half of last season, and I thought he deserved to win Offensive Rookie
of the Year. But there are still major holes in his game, particularly with his
decision making and mechanics. He will cost the Buccaneers in several
excruciating moments over the course of the season, and it remains to be seen
whether he can make enough plays to counter these errors. Last year he was
aided by a career resurgence from Doug Martin, but it’s hard to know what
exactly we’ll see from him now that he’s signed a new contract, whether the
running game will continue to take pressure off the passer or if it will
disappear again.
Tampa Bay’s team is based on a
lot of shaky propositions. Their starting cornerbacks will be Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves, a washed up free
agent and a talented but unproven rookie. They have no one who has shown the
ability to get around the edge at an NFL level, and their receiving corps looks
much better in measurements than they ever do on the field. As easy as it is to
imagine this team putting it all together, it’s even easier to imagine them
disappointing again, falling to pieces as they have in the past and finishing
at the bottom of the division.
Player
to Watch: Kwon Alexander, LB
I promise, I’m not going to make
this a breakout second year player for every team. It just so happens that the
first two I come to are best represented by a player coming off a strong rookie
year who stands to make a major improvement in their second season. For several
years now it has seemed inexplicable that Tampa Bay’s defense has been as bad
as it is. They have one of the best defensive linemen in the league in McCoy,
and one of the best linebackers in David. The problem is, they haven’t had
anything else. Their attempts to add free agent veterans and young talents have
been an almost admirable streak of swings and misses, potentially broken by
last year’s fourth round selection.
Alexander fits the mold of other
midround linebackers who have found success in recent years. He’s undersized
but phenomenally athletic, and he makes up for inexperience by being everywhere
on the field at once. He gives them another weapon beside McCoy and David (and
hopefully draft picks Vernon Hargreaves and Noah Spence). The offense looks to
be coming along for Tampa Bay, but by now we have to realize that the pair of superstars on their defense isn't enough to carry that unit.
Atlanta Falcons
Half
Full:
A couple years ago the Falcons
were consistently among the top teams in the NFC, and it isn’t any secret why
they’ve fallen off. After repeatedly giving up multiple assets for players like
Julio Jones (good move) and Sam Baker (not so much), they were left with
possibly the thinnest roster in the NFL. A few bad breaks, a series of
unfortunate injuries, and everything fell apart around them.
But there were some signs
of life early last season, before the problems with depth rose again and the
team fell apart to the tune of seven losses over their final nine games. But
another offseason of smart decision making has given them a flicker of life. In
addition to stars like Julio Jones and Desmond Trufant, they now have solid
options up and down their roster, with veteran free agents like Alex Mack and
Mohamad Sanu joining young talent like Vic Beasley and Devonta Freeman. It’s
still a decent hill to climb, but if things come together for the Falcons they
could be one of the surprise teams of the season.
Half
Empty:
Of course, if things fail to
come together, it could get pretty ugly in a hurry in Atlanta. Mack is past his
prime, Sanu was overrated as a third receiver in Cincinnati, and Beasley showed
very little in a rookie season that carried high expectations (he was my pick for
Defensive Rookie of the Year and managed a grand total of four sacks). In fact, both of their past two first round picks have been disappointing thus
far, with Matthews failing in 2015 to expand on a promising but injury stifled
rookie season.
There are problems all over
Atlanta’s roster, from their age to their depth, but the biggest concern of all
has to be at the quarterback position. A couple years ago Matt Ryan was the
toast of the NFL, a young quarterback who looked ready to take the next step. And
it never quite happened. The past two years he has stagnated, or even
regressed, looking timid behind a beleaguered offensive line in an offense with
no real option outside of Jones. With the pieces they added this offseason Ryan
has a good chance to get back on track, but it’s hard to imagine him ever
achieving the heights we thought he was capable of a couple years ago.
Player
to Watch: Ra’Shede Hageman, DE/DT
See, I’m mixing it up this time,
going with a third year player who may or may not be ready to break out.
Hageman came into the league with a reputation for three things: an abrasive
attitude, prolonged stretches of lazines, and moments of awe inspiring athletic dominance. And so far in his career, we’ve really only
seen the first two. He has been a disappointment as a second round pick, and
now he has one more chance to prove that he’s worth the investment.
Talent has never been the issue
with Hageman, and the blame doesn’t fall entirely on him. So far he hasn’t been
put in a position to use his overwhelming gifts, and it appears the Falcons
coaching staff sees this as well. After spending the first two years fighting
through traffic as a defensive tackle, he will now get more time to work on the
edge, where his length and his quickness will allow him to make more dynamic
plays. I’m not completely convinced this change will do any good, but if it has
the chance to unlock Hageman’s potential, it’s a move they absolutely have to
try.
New Orleans Saints
Half
Full:
There isn’t much to like on New
Orleans’s roster, but what little there is certainly stands out. Drew Brees is
obviously the first player we think of when discussing this team, and despite
some claims to the contrary he is still a top five quarterback in the league. Lost
in miserable and anonymous seasons, people seem to be unaware that his past two
years have been really freaking good, surpassing 4800 yards, 30 touchdowns, and
68% completion in each of them. They’ve restocked his stable of weapons, and he
could very easily throw for over 5000 yards again this year.
And for the first time in a
couple years, Brees isn’t completely on his own. Terron Armstead is a budding
star at left tackle, a dominant athlete who is only going to get better as he
continues to learn how to play the position. Brandin Cooks rebounded from a
disappointing rookie season to quietly put up over 1100 receiving yards. And
Cameron Jordan continues to just wreck things on the defensive side of the
ball, now supported by talented young players like Sheldon Rankins and Stephone
Anthony. There’s enough talent here that with some support from the margins the
Saints can make a run at the playoffs, and perhaps build momentum into 2017.
Half
Empty:
I did everything I could in the
section above, but it’s hard to get too optimistic about an aging, top heavy
team with salary cap woes that will continue to drag on it for years down the
road. The Saints are in a bad place, both for the short term and the long term.
Suffocated by their spending spree two years ago, they were able to make very
few improvements to their team, and the ones they did—Coby Fleener comes to
mind—do very little to make me confident.
There are just too many holes on
this team. Armstead is great, but the rest of that offensive line leaves a lot to be desired. Jordan has been playing fantastic for years, and it
hasn’t done anything to improve this historically wretched defense. Cooks forms
an interesting pair with second round pick Michael Thomas, but this team has
nowhere near the depth of offensive weapons that made them so dangerous five
years ago. In a division filled with young talent, they are going sharply
backwards, in a slide that may not conclude until after Brees has decided to call it
a career.
Player
to Watch: Delvin Breaux, CB
Breaux was one of the most
fascinating stories in the NFL last year. A former major recruit, it appeared
his football career was over when he fractured his vertebrae in a high school
game. He never played in college, and when he did come back to football it was
with something called the Gridiron Developmental League. He also spent time in
the Arena Football League and the Canadian Football League, before somehow
ending up as the starting cornerback for the New Orleans Saints.
And he was actually not that bad.
He had some rough moments early on, but he picked it up as the season
progressed, and he now enters training camp with a starting role all but locked
down. It’s a remarkable story, though it remains to be seen just how happy an
ending it will have. Half a season of competent play doesn’t make him the star
that some have tried to make him out to be, but it’s something to be optimistic
about, which is more than you can say about most other parts of this Saints
defense.
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