2016 NFL Draft: First Round In Depth

Late last night I posted my pick by pick reactions to the first round of the draft. Well just in time for the second round, I have a deeper look at what happened last night. Below I talk about a couple of the biggest storylines of the draft, break down players I hadn't gotten around to watching film on yet, list off the best players remaining for the second and third rounds, and hand out some way too early awards for the players selected last night.

The Falls

 

Every year one of the major storylines of the draft is a player who falls from a predicted high slot, bouncing through selection after selection until someone leaps at the opportunity to grab a player they never expected to get. This year was no exception, as we saw two of the five most talented players in the draft slide down the board for reasons that are only tangentially related to football.

Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss

This one was rough. I don’t know what to say about this, since there is still so much we don’t know. If you aren’t aware of what I’m talking about, Tunsil was at one point projected as the first player to go in the draft, before the trade by the Titans started a spiral that ended with him being selected thirteenth by the Dolphins. It’s impossible to say for sure what the reasons were for each team passing on him, but it seems likely that some factor was played by the video posted only minutes before the draft on his twitter account showing him smoking marijuana out of a gas mask bong.

Again, no one knows for sure what happened, but all signs seem to indicate that his account was hacked by someone attempting to blackmail him. The video is reportedly two years old and was in the possession of someone attempting to sell it over the past few weeks. Earlier this week, Tunsil was sued for emotional damage by his step father, who had been involved in back and forth battery suits with Tunsil last year. It isn’t difficult to follow the dots and put together a reasonable hypothesis for what happened.

There were reports that some teams (specifically the Ravens) took him off their board entirely after the video surfaced. The timing of this release made it far worse than it actually is, robbing teams of the ability to fully consider what it is and what it means. This is a lesser version of what caused La’el Collins to go undrafted last year, a non-story that had the bad luck of happening at the exact wrong time. There may or may not be something here, but teams didn’t have a chance to figure out the truth before they had to make up their mind.

There are off the field concerns with Tunsil. This was true before the video came out, and it remains true after last night. People criticize NFL teams for passing over someone for reasons that seem trivial, but they criticize them even more when one of their players gets in trouble off the field. I don’t necessarily agree with the teams that passed on him, but I at least understand where they’re coming from. There is a lot at stake with picks in the first round, and teams shy away from any uncertainty.

Myles Jack

Uncertainty is the word to go along with Jack as well, who still hasn’t been drafted going into the second round. The talent here is undeniable, but the questions surrounding his injured knee led every team in the first round to pass on him. As I’ve said before, I don’t have the necessary knowledge of Jack’s circumstances or of basic human physiology to pass any judgment here, besides saying that it sucks. If Jack is fine, then whoever grabs him will have a superstar player at tremendous value. If he isn’t, they will have wasted a valuable pick on someone who physically can’t contribute.

The scary thing about Jack is that we might not know the answer for a couple years. Based on what I’ve read of his knee injury, his situation reminds me a lot of Brandon Roy of the Portland Trail Blazers. Roy came out of college as a clear star, but his injury caused him to fall in the draft. For a few years after that we all laughed at the teams that had allowed this superstar to fall, until the lack of cartilage in Roy’s knee caught up to him and his career ended when he was only 26 years old.

If you’re a team investing in the future of Myles Jack, it’s absolutely terrifying to imagine this could be the case. Every single game he plays, every single visit to the trainer’s office, you will end up wondering if this could be it for him. This isn’t something like Todd Gurley where we just have to wait until the middle of the season to see that he’s fine. This isn’t a case where he loses value because he may not provide immediate impact. Whatever is wrong with Jack, it isn’t going away, and the uncertain long term consequences are almost impossible to weigh against the undeniable immediate impact he will provide.

Best Players Remaining

Shilique Calhoun, DE/OLB, Michigan State

I seem to be the only one still beating the drum for Calhoun, but that just means I have to beat it harder. I think he is a better version of Leonard Floyd, who went off the board ninth overall last night. He’s explosive off the edge, he is excellent in space, and he can contribute in a wide variety of roles on a defense. I don’t know how far he’s going to fall, whether he’ll even end up picked tonight, but he deserves to go sometime in the first ten picks of the second round, and whoever selects him will be getting the steal of the draft.

Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor

Billings is one of my favorite players in the draft, but it is pretty clear why he is still available. Looking at the defensive tackles that went in the first round, there is a definite trend that has emerged. Teams are going for smaller, quicker tackles, players in the Geno Atkins or Aaron Donald mold. They may not hold up against the run like the traditional space eaters like Billings, but they are electric as penetrators, destroying quarterbacks and ball carriers deep in the backfield. This isn’t Billings’s game, but he’s a better pass rusher than he gets credit for. He could still fall a ways, especially with a deep class of defensive tackles available, and someone could get a great player late in the second round.

Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State

There was a brief run of receivers late in the first round, but Thomas didn’t hear his name called. This caught me a bit by surprise, as I consider Thomas among the twenty best players in the class. He has good size, good speed, and he runs quality routes. The only thing that held him back in college was the system he played in, which stifled his numbers and limited his impact. He should be the first receiver to go tonight, and down the road he has the potential to be a Pro Bowl player.

Noah Spence, DE/OLB, Eastern Kentucky

I’m just as surprised that Spence didn’t go in the first round. Perhaps some teams were genuinely scared by his past drug issues, but he has passed dozens of drug tests over the past two years, and every indication is that he has cleaned up his life. As a player he is electric coming off the edge, with the best first step in the class and the potential to add more devastating moves down the road. It will be interesting to see in what order the pass rushers go tonight, and Spence could end up sliding even further if teams prefer bigger bodied players like Kevin Dodd or Emmanuel Ogbah.

Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama

It’s less surprising that Ragland is still available, even though he deserved to be taken near the end of the first round. As a pure inside linebacker his use is limited in the NFL, but his physicality and intelligence will immediately improve the run defense of whichever team he goes to. From what I’ve heard there really isn’t reason to be concerned about an enlarged aorta that was discovered during medical tests, though that kind of buzz word could push him down the draft even farther.

Additional Breakdowns

 

Prior to the draft I watched film of and analyzed 53 of the highest ranked players in the class. When I started I had hoped that this would be enough to cover the entire first round, but I always figured I could do three or four more if necessary following the draft. Then last night seven players went that I hadn’t broken down, as part of a first round that just about nobody saw coming.

It was rough, but I followed through with my intentions. Here are the seven players I hadn’t yet watched who were selected last night, broken down by their skillsets and their fits with the teams that selected them.

17. Atlanta Falcons – Keanu Neal, LB/S, Florida

Neal is listed as a safety in most places you’ll see, but that’s not the position he’ll play in the NFL. At least I hope it isn’t, because it’s not a position he’s capable of playing in the NFL. There has been a push in recent years towards converting college safeties to rangy linebackers, starting with Deone Buchanon in Arizona and then resurrecting the career of Mark Barron with the Rams. Atlanta selected Neal with the same intentions, taking a big, physical safety and covering for his subpar speed by leaving him in the box on most plays.

This would be a fine strategy, if Neal was actually physical enough to do this. But on the rare occasion he found himself in this role in college, he was usually overwhelmed by what he faced. He doesn’t take on blockers well, and he isn’t a fantastic tackler. He has a reputation as a big hitter, but mostly this came cleaning up a play, throwing his body against a ball carrier who was already wrapped up. He doesn’t flow through traffic, and he doesn’t attack aggressively downhill. Even if he is a linebacker, it’s a huge mistake that he was the first linebacker off the board.

Where he would have gone in my combined linebacker/safety rankings: #8 behind Darron Lee

18. Indianapolis Colts - Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama

Kelly is a good player, but I wouldn’t call him dominant, and I wouldn’t say he is worth the pick that was used on him. He is a very skilled, very sound player who always makes the smart play. He keeps his head up well in pass protection, and he moves smoothly from one defender to the next as the situation demands. He flows extremely well to the second level, and he does an excellent job with positioning to get the defender sealed and open the hole behind him.

But as a pure lineman, Kelly falls short in several areas. He doesn’t physically dominate people in the way you want first round interior talents to do, and at times he can even get pushed back himself. His hands aren’t strong, and if he doesn’t get his hips turned the defender can slide right off of him. And while he was very good in double team situations, the offense relied on this too often for my taste. On the rare occasion he was truly matched up one on one, he struggled to cut off and control the man in front of him. Going eighteenth overall was a stretch, and I probably would have balked at taking him anywhere in the first round.

Where he would have gone in my offensive linemen rankings: #5 between Jack Conklin and Cody Whitehair

21. Houston Texans - Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame

Fuller was more impressive than I expected, but that still doesn’t make him worth this pick. The history of fast but undersized receivers who go in the first round despite drop issues is not the prettiest in the world—Troy Williamson, Ted Ginn, and Darrius Heyward-Bey are among the biggest draft mistakes of the past fifteen years—and there is reason to worry that Fuller will join them. He has excellent speed, but he doesn’t offer much more than that, and the Texans passed up several better receivers to select him.

That said, it’s not as bad as I initially thought. Fuller is a better route runner than other analysts have given him credit for, showing a bit of deceptiveness in selling the route deep before breaking it off underneath. He will drop quite a few balls, but this is more due to pure hands than anything else, as he shows good skills tracking the ball into a catchable position. No, he’s not very good after the catch, and no, he doesn’t have the consistency to be the top guy. But in Houston he doesn’t have to be the top guy, and opposite DeAndre Hopkins he can contribute as a pure speed threat capable of making one or two big plays a game.

Where he would have gone in my receiver rankings: #6 between Corey Coleman and Braxton Miller

25. Pittsburgh Steelers - Artie Burns, CB, Miami

Burns has more work to do to become a top quality player than any of the other cornerbacks taken in the first round. His athleticism covers a lot of flaws in coverage, but against quicker and smarter NFL receivers he is going to have problems. He plays a bit off balance and bites against fakes, and he needs to improve both his technique work and his understanding of the game before he can be a reliable starter. Pittsburgh probably wasn’t the best place for him to go, a cornerback needy team that will likely force him onto the field before he’s ready.

But the potential is undeniable, and he’s closer to being ready than some analysts think. He has the physicality to stack receivers at the line, and he is fluid enough with his movement that he can turn and run with anyone down the field. His ball skills are undeniable, and even though he’ll make some errors, he has the ability to make game changing plays this year. This was a reach by the Steelers, but I understand why they did it. The desperately need a cornerback, and with the top four options off the board, Burns was among the best options they had.

Where he would have gone in my cornerback rankings: #6 between Mackensie Alexander and Kendall Fuller

27. Green Bay Packers - Kenny Clark, DE/DT, UCLA

I really didn’t want to like Clark. When the Packers grabbed a player that most had ranked in the second round, I really wanted to be able to laugh at them with the rest of the world. I wanted Clark to be a mediocre player, below several others still on the board. But then I watched him play. And while I can definitely see why some rank him lower than he went—his range isn’t great, and he isn’t particularly versatile—I have to admit that I kind of like what Clark brings to the table.

Clark really only does one thing, but he does it well. He shoots out and engages with his hands, controlling the man in front of him and reading the play as it develops. His upper body is incredibly strong, and he is always in control, preventing the opposing lineman from turning him to seal off any gap. And if the play comes near him, he is a master at shedding the blocker, tossing him aside like a loose piece of cardboard. No, Clark isn’t explosive, and no, he isn’t going to be living in the offensive backfield. But he is a very functional, very reliable option at defensive tackle, a good fit for Green Bay’s scheme that offers reasonable value for where he was selected.

Where he would have gone in my defensive tackle rankings: #3 between Andrew Billings and Robert Nkemdiche

28. San Francisco 49ers - Joshua Garnett, OG, Stanford

Garnett is the sort of physical mauler you want from a first round guard. He blows people backwards off the ball, and he drives them into the ground, going up to and through the whistle in his desire to dominate his opponent. Sometimes this leads to overaggression, leading him to attack off balance and make mistakes. He’ll lunge forward in the running game or stay engaged too long as a pass protector, opening holes for the man he was supposed to block to run free into the backfield.

I agree with the 49ers trying to improve their offensive line, but I don’t think trading up into the first round was worth it. Garnett could very easily have been available if they had waited until it was their turn in the second round, and there would probably be a competent lineman there even if he wasn’t. San Francisco has a lot of holes to fill, and they shouldn’t be giving assets away unless they are getting an absolute stud.

Where he would have gone in my offensive line rankings: #7 between Cody Whitehair and Germain Ifedi

30 – Carolina Panthers - Vernon Butler, DE/DT, Louisiana Tech

The decision to draft Butler has everything to do with what he might become and nothing to do with what he already is. Watching him on the field you can see why someone would grab him in the first round. 323 pound men simply should not be able to move the way he does, constantly light on his feet and dancing from side to side like a running back. He is phenomenally gifted, and if he can ever translate it to the game he could be an elite player.

But so far he has not come close to translating these skills. He dances around linemen like they are cemented into the field, but he never seems to gain any ground. He’s huge, but he plays smaller than he is, never overpowering the man in front of him and never breaking away once he’s locked on. He’s a poor tackler, and he spends a lot of his time off balance, on the verge of falling with every cut he makes. A couple years down the road he could be a great player, which is why it makes a little more sense than I initially thought for Carolina to take him. Assuming they won’t be able to retain both Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short, Butler is the sort of long term investment that could keep this position from being a problem down the road.

Where he would have gone in my defensive tackle rankings: #6 between Jarran Reed and A’Shawn Robinson

Superlatives

Worst Pick – Keanu Neal, LB/S, Atlanta Falcons

I covered Neal briefly above, and I really didn’t want to go over it again, but there really isn’t another pick that matches up. Baltimore taking Ronnie Stanley was an error, and I can’t say I like Paxton Lynch at all as a prospect, but the selection of Neal blew the rest of that away. He is a third round talent who went seventeenth overall. This wouldn’t have been so terrible, except that there was an obviously better alternative available for the Falcons. Check out the combine numbers posted by two players selected in last night’s first round.

	Player A	Player B
Height	6’0”	6’1”
Weight	211 lbs	232 lbs
Bench Press	17 reps	17 reps
40 Yard Dash	4.62	4.47
Vertical Jump	38”	35.5”
Broad Jump	132”	133”
3 Cone Drill	7.09	7.12
20 Yard Shuttle	4.38	4.20

Player A is Neal. Player B is Darron Lee, who went three picks later to the Jets. They are remarkably similar, except that Lee is 20 pounds heavier and .15 seconds faster in the 40. And I’m not a fan of Lee. I thought he was a second round prospect who was taken too high by the Jets. But he is a much better option than Neal. He’s bigger, he has experience playing linebacker, and even though he’s not very good in coverage, he is at least Neal’s equal in that area. Lee would have been a bad pick, but he was far preferable than Neal, who stands above a field of mediocrity as the worst selection of last night.

Best Picks – The State of Florida

I couldn’t make up my mind between these three selections, so I decided just to reward all of them. The state of Florida absolutely killed it last night. It started with the Jaguars at number five, who admittedly had a pretty easy decision to make. Once both the Chargers and the Cowboys passed on Jalen Ramsey, the Jaguars added arguably the best player in the class at a position of dire need, the absolute best case scenario for them on draft night.

The decision was a bit more complicated for Miami. I addressed the Tunsil situation above, and while I believe this was certainly blown out of proportion, I do have to admit that it took some guts to pull the trigger. A first round pick is the most valuable asset in the NFL, and it’s not hard to blame teams for being risk averse. With all the publicity around off the field issues in recent years, any sort of red flag has to be taken into consideration. The Dolphins had an even better excuse for passing on him than some teams above, with both tackle spots locked down by Branden Albert and Ja’Wuan James. But they did the right thing and took the best player available to them, trusting their coaches to figure things out down the road.

Tampa Bay didn’t get a player of the same caliber as Miami or Jacksonville, but they did the finest job of managing the draft of any team last night. With the Bears desperate to grab Leonard Floyd ahead of the Giants, the Buccaneers happily moved down two spots and received a fourth round pick in return. They then grabbed the second best cornerback in the draft, the player they likely would have selected if they remained at number nine. Vernon Hargreaves will be a very good cornerback from day one, an electric playmaker who will make up for his lack of size with explosive downhill burst and fantastic ball skills.

Awards

 

I’m going to give my early predictions for the rookie of the year awards based on how the first round shook out. Obviously this award could be won by players who haven’t been drafted yet, and I reserve the right to change these picks down the road.

Offense – Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

When looking at Offensive Rookie of the Year we should go position by position. No lineman is going to win the award, so that eliminates almost half of the offensive players selected last night. A quarterback will always have the edge, but I don’t like the prospects of any of the three drafted in the first round. Goff will be stifled by Jeff Fisher, Wentz has nothing to work with in Philadelphia, and Lynch is just a bad football player. If I was going to pick a wide receiver, I’d say Laquon Treadwell has the best combination of role and quarterback to pull off a strong rookie year.

But the only possible answer is Elliott. He’s the best skill position player in the class, he plays a position where the transition is relatively easy, and he landed in the perfect situation. He will be the feature back from day one in Dallas, behind the best offensive line in the league and supported by an elite quarterback-receiver combo. Barring injury a thousand rushing yards seems almost a given, and with his skills he can tack on four or five hundred receiving as well.

Defense – Karl Joseph, S, Oakland Raiders

I’ve warmed up to this selection some since last night. I still think fourteen was too high for Joseph, but it’s hard to argue the fit in Oakland. There are still some skeptical people, and it’s hard not to be after what the Raiders have been for fifteen years. But this is a team on the rise, and they just added a potential star at their weakest position. Their improved front seven will terrorize quarterbacks, freeing Joseph to flow behind and make the sort of splash plays that will earn him the recognition he needs to win this award. He can absolutely light people up, and his ball skills are enough to get him four or five interceptions. He can be a difference maker on Oakland’s defense, and in a division as wide open as the AFC West this could be a playoff team next year.

The Odell Beckham Award for Player I Am Most Likely to Be Terribly Wrong About

Leonard Floyd, DE/OLB, Chicago Bears

One last award, this one of my own making. I have owned up to the fact that I made a huge mistake when I tore the Giants to shreds for drafting Beckham two years ago (though I will point out that the other two picks I hated from that draft, Greg Robinson and Justin Gilbert, look pretty damn terrible right now), and so now I’ll have some fun with it. There were quite a few picks from last night that I really dislike, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to be disasters. There could very easily be superstars that come out of any number of places I criticized.

The most intriguing of these options is Floyd. I thought he was ranked too high when many had him going to Atlanta at seventeen, but then he just kept climbing, forcing the Bears to trade up to select him at number nine. This seems way too high for a player who doesn’t have a clearly defined position and isn’t a supernatural freak of an athlete. Floyd has good length and good athleticism, but he is too lanky to hold up consistently as either a defensive end or a linebacker. He doesn’t excel at any one thing on the field, and right now he is more potential than player.

But that potential is certainly enticing. The model for Floyd should be the player who was selected ninth overall two years ago, division rival Anthony Barr. Like Floyd, Barr was considered as mostly a pass rusher coming out, but he has since transitioned to an off the ball the linebacker role. His pass rushing ability certainly comes in handy, but he only gets the opportunity ten to twenty times a game, using his explosive burst here or there while not proving vulnerable to showing his lack of moves and losing the long game against opposing blockers.

Floyd isn’t as athletic or as instinctive as Barr, but in the right circumstances he can have that kind of impact. The Bears need to use him creatively, letting him flow across the field making plays from sideline to sideline. We haven’t really seen him in this role, so there is definitely a major downside risk. But if everything works right he does have the potential to prove that I had no idea what I was talking about when I criticized the pick last night.