We’ve almost made it. Just a
couple more days until the first round of the NFL Draft. Just as I’ve done for
the past two years, I’ll be making two mock drafts. Tomorrow I’ll have what I
think will actually happen, but for today I put together a draft based on how
it would play out in the unlikely event that I was put in charge of every
single pick for every single team.
1. Los Angeles Rams –
Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State
I’ll admit that these first two
picks are somewhat strange to do from the “if I was in charge” perspective.
Both the Rams and the Eagles are here because of trades, trades that never
would have happened if I was in charge. The only reason they made these trades
was to go after a quarterback, and the only way they justify what they give up
is if they can get a franchise starter. But the quarterbacks aren’t the top two
players in the draft, so I’ve decided to treat these picks as if the context
behind them doesn’t exist.
With the injuries to Myles Jack
and Jaylon Smith, the two best players in the draft are Jalen Ramsey and Laremy
Tunsil, and they will go number one and two in some order. The Rams spent a
first round pick on tackle Greg Robinson two years ago, and even though he’s
been a mess since then I think they owe him one more year to pull things
together. They are facing a more pressing need at cornerback, where they lost
one starter Janoris Jenkins and only have Trumaine Johnson under their control
for one more season.
2. Philadelphia
Eagles – Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
The Eagles are in the same boat
as the Rams, a team that traded up to get a quarterback at a position where
there really isn’t a quarterback worth taking. But Tunsil would be a great
option for them as well, an heir apparent to the aging Jason Peters to anchor
the left side of the line while developing star Lane Johnson holds down the
right. Of everything Kelly did in Philadelphia, his dismantling of the offensive
line was the most glaring error, and the Eagles need to take advantage of this
opportunity to rebuild it.
3. San Diego
Chargers – Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
The Chargers need help at
basically every position on their roster other than quarterback. Tunsil would
be the absolutely perfect fit, but with him off the board, I’ll go with the
next best player available. Bosa gets a slight edge over DeForest Buckner, who
fits the Chargers scheme better but carries significantly more risk. There are
reports out there now that teams are souring on Bosa, but I think his overall
abilities make him the sort of player who will provide consistency and
playmaking ability to a defense that desperately needs it.
4. Dallas Cowboys – DeForest
Buckner, DE/DT, Oregon
Buckner only drops one more spot,
to a team similarly bereft of talent on the defensive side. Schematically it
would make more sense to flip these players, but they are both talented enough
that a defensive coordinator should be able to plan around them. Buckner will
bounce around a lot of positions on the line, giving the Cowboys the
flexibility to shape their defense however they see fit behind him.
5. Jacksonville
Jaguars – Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida
This was the first really
difficult pick to make. The Jaguars have one of the most exciting young
offenses in the NFL, but they desperately need talent on defense.
Unfortunately, three of the five best defenders are off the board, and the
other two are facing serious knee injuries. I considered grabbing Myles Jack
here, but that sort of risk wouldn’t make sense for the Jaguars at number five.
The biggest concerns with Jack are about his long term future, the future the
Jaguars are building towards. It would make more sense for a team with a
shorter window to try to get him for immediate impact. So instead I went with
Hargreaves, a bit of a reach but still an impact contributor at a position the
Jaguars desperately need.
6. Baltimore Ravens –
Shilique Calhoun, DE/LB, Michigan State
Here’s a pick where I break
sharply from conventional wisdom. Most people have Calhoun as a second round
pick, worried about his slight frame and limited pass rushing arsenal. I see a
long and rangy athlete who excels in space and can contribute in a smart and
versatile defense. This is just the sort of player the Ravens need, someone to
bring pressure off the edge once Suggs and Dumervil move on.
7. San Francisco
49ers – Jared Goff, QB, California
This is a dream come true for 49ers
fans, and for fans of Chip Kelly. I can think of no better pairing of scheme
and talent than Goff in San Francisco. He is the fit for Kelly’s system that
everyone thinks Colin Kaepernick is, a quarterback who excels at reading the
field before the snap and getting the ball out of his hands from the shotgun.
It’s almost a shame that we’re never going to see this, that Goff is going to
be stifled under Jeff Fisher’s bland scheme while Kelly is stuck running his
offense through a blind cannon of a quarterback.
8. Cleveland Browns –
Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Ohio State
There are rosters barren of
talent, and then there’s the Cleveland Browns. Any player they take makes sense
with their roster, so they might as well go for the best talent available.
Positional value excluded, you can make an argument that Elliot is the best
player in this class. His versatility will make him an immediate weapon for the
Browns on every single play, a piece they can attempt to rebuild their offense
around.
9. Tampa Bay
Buccaneers – William Jackson, CB, Houston
The defensive prospects are
really running off the board, and we’re beginning to have to reach for players
who probably don’t belong in the top ten. But Jackson could very well turn out
to be worth it, if he can harness his athleticism and ball skills to become a
top quality cornerback. Tampa Bay has a pair of superstars on their defense in
Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David, but so far they haven’t been able to put
together a consistent and effective unit. Jackson will give them a star on the
third level of the defense, the next step in filling out the talent on that
side of the ball.
10. New York Giants –
Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
Above I said that the best fit
for Jack would be a team with a narrow window. I’m not sure if the Giants
qualify, but if they have any chance of competing for another championship with
Eli Manning at the helm, they’re going to need immediate contributors. This
team has a lot of holes, but Jack is versatile enough to fit wherever they need
him. It seems like the Giants haven’t had a quality linebacker in twenty years,
but this draft could give them the opportunity to change this.
11. Chicago Bears – Noah
Spence, DE/LB, Eastern Kentucky
There is just a tremendous need
for defensive talent among the top teams in the draft, and the Bears are
another example who could use players at every single possible level of their
defense. Spence will give them the pass rushing threat they’ve been searching
for ever since Julius Peppers began to decline, a poor man’s Von Miller sliding
into the role in John Fox’s defense.
12. New Orleans
Saints – Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
I do have some worries about
Treadwell’s athleticism, especially after his miserable Pro Day performance. A
lack of speed does matter in the NFL. It will keep him from generating major
separation, will allow cornerbacks to recover if he beats them off his initial
break, and will overall limit his ability to make dynamic plays. If Treadwell
is going to succeed, he will need help from a quarterback. He needs someone who
can fit the ball into the tight windows he will generate, who will hit him just
as he’s coming out of his break before the defender can erase the separation.
Drew Brees is one such quarterback, and Treadwell has the skills to take over
in the role that Marques Colston found so much success in.
13. Miami Dolphins –
Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
Miami is a weird team in that
they have no glaring holes but also have no positions where you feel genuinely
comfortable. They can take any player in the draft, but there’s no guarantee
that player is better than what they already have. So they continue the run on
cornerbacks, grabbing the gifted yet raw Apple. He won’t have the immediate
impact of the other top cornerbacks in the draft, but he is still very young,
and he could develop into a star down the road.
14. Oakland Raiders –
Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
The Raiders landed a star in
receiver in Amari Cooper last year, and this year they add another weapon to
Derek Carr’s arsenal. Doctson doesn’t fill as pressing a need as several other
players on the board, but he is the best player available. His ability to
stretch the field and high point the ball will add an element of explosiveness
to this offense, freeing Cooper to shred defenses underneath and giving Carr
multiple options on each and every play.
15. Tennessee Titans
– Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor
In my prospect breakdown I said
that I wouldn’t take Billings in the top twenty of the draft, but the run on
defensive talent has made him intriguing, and in retrospect I might have been a
bit too harsh. He is absolutely dominant in the running game, and he shows
enough as a pass rusher that he might be able to develop into an every down
player going forward. Drop him next to Jurrell Casey, and the Titans have a
truly scary defensive line, with the ability to add even more talent with the
other picks they acquired from the Rams.
16. Detroit Lions – Taylor
Decker, OT, Ohio State
Matthew Stafford’s pass
protection was a nightmare at times last year (the memories of what the Vikings
did to him may still make him flinch periodically as he walks down the street).
Decker needs some work, and I don’t think he’s ready to start immediately. But
down the line he could turn out to be a quality left tackle, another piece for
their current offense or a player to build around if they decide to tear things
down.
17. Atlanta Falcons –
Leonard Floyd, DE/LB, Georgia
A year ago Atlanta tried to
improve their pass rush by grabbing Vic Beasley with the eighth overall
selection. It hasn't worked out yet, and even though I think Beasley will give them
more this year, it won’t hurt to add another threat. Floyd is more versatile
than Beasley, and he can contribute as a stand up linebacker in addition to an
edge force, bringing the sort of length, athleticism, and flexibility that is
needed for linebackers in Dan Quinn’s system.
18. Indianapolis
Colts – Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
Indianapolis needs help
everywhere except for quarterback, but most of all they need to find a way to
protect their quarterback. Anthony Castanzo is solid at left tackle, but they
have holes at just about every other position on the line. Stanley will slide
in immediately at right tackle, where he’ll have a couple seasons to gain
experience before moving over to protect Luck’s blind side.
19. Buffalo Bills – Jack
Conklin, OG/OT, Michigan State
There are a lot of rumors that
the Bills are interested in a quarterback, but Tyrod Taylor did enough good
things in 2015 to earn another season. They have much more pressing needs
elsewhere on their roster, starting with their offensive line. I’m not
particularly high on Conklin as a tackle, but I think he has tremendous
potential as a guard. The Bills can try him out at right tackle if they think
he fits, or they can place him immediately at guard. Either way, it’s an
upgrade over what they have right now.
20. New York Jets – Carson
Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
At a certain point this whole
premise does become a bit of a joke. What good does it really do to break down
the fit of a player who absolutely is not going to be available for the Jets to
pick? But even though he’s going to go number two, I think twenty is a more
reasonable range for Wentz. He has good upside, but there are a lot of flaws
that need fixing as well. The Jets may not be the place for him to develop—in New York
he’d be forced into the starting lineup immediately—but they can’t pass up this
opportunity to fill the biggest hole on their roster.
21. Washington
Redskins – Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State
With the addition of Josh Norman
the Redskins have closed one major hole on their roster, freeing them to make
more of a luxury pick. They have a pair of talented receivers in DeSean Jackson
and Pierre Garcon, but both are on the downside of their career. If Kirk
Cousins is the long term answer at quarterback, he’s going to need a talented
target who can grow and develop with him. Thomas isn’t as good as the top two
receivers, but he is the best player available at number twenty-one.
22. Houston Texans –
Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Outside of DeAndre Hopkins the Texans
don’t have much on offense. They need a running back, they need a wide
receiver, and $72 million of Brock Osweiler aside, they probably need a
quarterback too. But none of these positions offers a player worth taking, so
they will try to improve their line instead. Duane Brown has held down the left
tackle position for nearly a decade, but he has slowed down over the past
couple years, and they need an investment if they are going to build a
successful offense going forward.
23. Minnesota
Vikings – Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia
I really want to give the Vikings
a receiver, but with the top three options off the board I’m going to address
their next biggest weakness. Neither Michael Griffin nor Andrew Sendejo is an
answer on the back end, and this one major hole held their defense back from
being a truly elite unit last year. Despite listing Darian Thompson higher in
my safety rankings, I went with Joseph here. Thompson can fly across the field
and make a lot of fantastic plays, but the Vikings already have a safety who
can do that in Harrison Smith. What they really need is a back end defender,
someone they can trust to lock things down while Smith wreaks havoc doing
different things on every single play.
24. Cincinnati
Bengals – Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh
The Bengals didn’t have a
particularly deep receiving corps to begin with, and that was before they lost
Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency. They can’t build an offense just
around passes to AJ Green and Tyler Eiffert, and they need someone who can
attack teams over the middle of the field. Boyd isn’t the most athletic
receiver, but he brings a good combination of skill, size, and quickness that
will make him an immediate contributor and a reliable target for Andy Dalton.
25. Pittsburgh
Steelers – Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
There is no more obvious need in
the NFL than Pittsburgh’s at cornerback. The situation is bad enough that most of their
fans breathed a sigh of relief after they resigned William Gay this offseason.
They will be helped some by the return of Senquez Golson, their second round
pick from 2015 who missed his entire rookie season due to a shoulder injury.
But adding Alexander will give them an even better chance of fixing the one
part of their team holding them back from Super Bowl contention.
26. Seattle Seahawks
– Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson
Seattle desperately needs help on
the offensive line, but with no more linemen worth taking in the first round,
they’ll settle for grabbing the best player available. Dodd will have a chance
to develop as part of a rotation with Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, and Frank
Clark for the next couple years, eventually taking over as an every down player
down the road. He isn’t the fastest rusher, but he provides a lot of power, the
sort of player who can slide in and abuse guards on third downs much as Bennett
has done ever since arriving in Seattle.
27. Green Bay
Packers – Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
The Clemson defensive ends go off
the board one after the other. I was tempted to give the Packers Reggie Ragland
with the idea that he would free Clay Matthews to move back to the outside full
time, but that’s a move they should make regardless of who this pick
is. It’s no reason to pass up on a better player at a position of need. Lawson
will give them a consistent edge threat opposite Matthews, with the potential
to grow into a star down the road with good coaching and a little bit of luck.
28. Kansas City
Chiefs – Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
Derrick Johnson’s return from a
torn Achilles last year was remarkable (if overshadowed by Eric Berry), but he
is still a 33 year old linebacker with at most a couple good years left.
Ragland doesn’t provide the complete impact you want to see from a modern day
NFL linebacker, but he excels at his limited skills, stuffing the run and
controlling the box. This defense is old, and an infusion of young talent in
the middle is just what they need to go along with other young talent like Marcus
Peters and Dee Ford.
29. Arizona Cardinals
– Robert Nkemdiche, DE/DT, Ole Miss
There are a lot of reasons for
concern around Nkemdiche, but I can’t think of a better place for him to go
than Arizona. Here he will have the support of Calais Campbell, a similarly
talented player who took some time to develop, and Tyrann Mathieu, another
college star who struggled with then overcame off the field trouble. On pure
talent alone he is one of the best players in the draft, and if he can control
himself off the field and harness his skills on it, he can be a game changing
player on the defensive side of the ball.
30. Carolina
Panthers – Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
Coleman is absolutely electric.
Streaking down the field or running with the ball in his hands, he can do
things that other players are simply not physically capable of. His game needs
a lot of work before he can be a reliable every down player, but in the right
hands he can be a dynamic weapon right away. With Kelvin Benjamin coming back
Carolina’s need at receiver is slightly lessened, but they still can’t just
count on what they had last year. Coleman will bring another element to their
offense, pushing an already dangerous unit into elite territory.
31. Denver Broncos –
Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
What to get a team that just won
a Super Bowl and is now looking at Mark Sanchez starting at quarterback? They
need a quarterback, but there’s none worth taking. They need an offensive
lineman, but it isn’t quite worth reaching for Cody Whitehair. Their defense is
loaded, but that is still the best way to go. After losing Malik Jackson to
free agency, they need some fresh beef in the middle. Rankins isn’t going to
stuff up the run, but he will make this pass rush even more lethal than it
already is. Denver may not be within reach of another Super Bowl run, but if
their defense can keep things up, they can push for the playoffs again.
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