Yesterday I posted my first mock draft, going over what
would happen if I was put in charge of every single pick. But after several
calls and one visit to the NFL offices, I have confirmed that this is not the
case. So we’ll have to settle for something that looks a little more like what
I’ve laid out below. I put this together based on a combination of rumors I’ve
heard, logical team needs, and meaningless guesswork. There are probably only
five or six picks in here that end up right, but it’s as good a way to kill
time as anything else I can think of.
1. Los Angeles Rams – Jared Goff,
QB, Cal
Initial expectations when the Rams moved up was that they
were doing so to go after Carson Wentz, but most people now seem to believe
that Goff will be the selection. I agree that he is the best quarterback in
the class, and he’s good enough that I can almost understand him going number
one. With Case Keenum and Nick Foles as the alternatives, he should be able to
start for the Rams from day one, though it would be nice if they had some other
picks to actually add some offensive talent around him.
2. Philadelphia Eagles – Carson
Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
There is an argument that can be made for Goff at number
one. I don’t think the same argument can be made for Wentz at number two,
besides the desperate need of NFL teams for quarterbacks. Philadelphia
traded up knowing this would be their only shot at Wentz, and if he pans out
it will be well worth the massive haul they surrendered. But that’s a big if
for a player with questionable mechanics who will be making a staggering jump
from North Dakota State to the NFL.
3. San Diego Chargers – Jalen
Ramsey, CB, Florida State
It would make a lot of sense for the Chargers to take Laremy
Tunsil. They desperately need help on the offensive line, and he is by far the
best lineman in this class. But I’ve seen reports that they don’t consider him
a good fit for their scheme, and they could certainly use help on defense as
well. Ramsey is considered by many to be the best player in the draft, and I
could see this pick changing hands if someone wanted to jump up a couple of
spots to grab him.
4. Dallas Cowboys – Ezekiel
Elliot, RB, Ohio State
This is where the draft will really start to swing. The
Cowboys could go any of several different directions, and the decision
they make will shape everything after. This is too high for Elliot to go,
but he is the perfect fit for the Cowboys, a chance to reclaim the rushing
dominance that won them the division two years ago. His skills as a pass
receiver and a pass blocker will also come in handy, hopefully helping keep
Tony Romo upright and on the field.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Myles
Jack, LB, UCLA
Jack is the hardest player to place in the draft, because he
could conceivably go anywhere between third overall and the second round. No
one really knows how badly injured his knee is, or how each team will weigh the
risks he brings. But it only takes one to think he’s fine and pull the trigger,
and his fit in Jacksonville makes enough sense that, with Ramsey off the board,
the Jaguars decide to go for the highest upside player.
6. Baltimore Ravens – Laremy
Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
Once the presumed number one overall pick, the question now
becomes just how far Tunsil will fall. Neither Dallas nor Jacksonville needs an
offensive tackle (though the Jaguars could decide it’s time to give up on Luke
Joeckel), and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up falling into Baltimore’s
lap. When just weeks ago it looked like the Ravens would have to reach for
Ronnie Stanley if they wanted a tackle, now it appears that they will be lucky
enough to get Tunsil to lock down the left side for years to come.
7. San Francisco 49ers – DeForest
Buckner, DE/DT, Oregon
During their brief run of dominance a couple years ago, the
49ers defense was anchored by a powerful, game controlling defensive end.
Justin Smith has since retired, and they desperately need someone to fill that
role in the defense. It will take Buckner a while to master the art of
defensive holding that made Smith so successful, but in the meantime he can be
a disruptive force on the inside, freeing Navarro Bowman to run behind him and
Aaron Lynch to crash down from the edge.
8. Cleveland Browns – Ronnie
Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
The Browns lost both Mitchell Schwartz and Alex Mack to free
agency, and they are desperately in need of help on the offensive line.
They’re desperately in need of help at a lot of places, but Stanley fills a
hole and fits this spot in the draft. I’m not as high on Stanley as most
people, but he can be a serviceable second tackle for now, developing until
they’re ready to move on from Joe Thomas and put the full weight of the line on
his shoulders.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Joey
Bosa, DE, Ohio State
Bosa is a top five talent in this draft, but he is probably
the player to watch for a draft night fall. He tested well in most parts of the
combine, but his forty yard dash time reinforced concerns about his
explosiveness as an edge rusher. The Buccaneers are likely going to take a
defensive end with this pick, so they will leap in joy at the opportunity to
grab the best one in the class, rather than having to reach for someone like
Shaq Lawson or Leonard Floyd.
10. New York Giants – Leonard
Floyd, DE/LB, Georgia
Floyd has been slowly crawling up draft boards for the past
few months, and now it looks like there’s a decent chance he’ll fight his way
into the top ten. He offers a good combination of speed around the edge and
versatility as an off the ball linebacker, and the Giants will be able to find
a role for him to contribute right away.
11. Chicago Bears – Shaq Lawson,
DE/LB, Clemson
The run on pass rushers continues as the Bears add another
piece to their rebuilding defense. Lawson offers high upside as a pass rusher
with the versatility to occasionally drop back into space. He can be dynamic if
he can harness all his tools, and he’ll have a pair of good coaches to show him
the way in John Fox and Vic Fangio. This is a bit too high for him, but it’s a
good situation for him to develop his potential.
12. New Orleans Saints - Sheldon
Rankins, DT, Louisville
We mix it up now, going from three straight edge pass
rushers to an interior player who specializes in rushing the passer. Rankins
can do incredible things getting after the quarterback, bursting through the
line with a combination of speed and advanced pass rushing moves. At times he
can even extend this quickness to the running game, but not often enough to
make up for his tendency to get blown back off the ball. He’ll be a situational
player at first in the NFL, with the hope that a year or two of practice and
weight training can get him where he needs to be as an every down threat.
13. Miami Dolphins – Vernon
Hargreaves, CB, Florida
The Dolphins reportedly love Elliot, and if he’s available
they will jump at the opportunity to take him. But with him gone to the
Cowboys, they’ll happily take the falling Hargreaves instead. Questions about
Hargreaves’s height and off the field issues have probably been overplayed, but
a lack of team need will likely push him down out of the top ten. The Dolphins
were weak at cornerback last year even with Brent Grimes, and now that he’s
gone they will need to invest heavily in that position.
14. Oakland Raiders – William
Jackson, CB, Houston
Most people (including me) have Hargreaves ranked as the
second best cornerback in the draft, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see these
two players reversed on draft night. Jackson has been shooting up boards ever
since his dynamic combine performance, and unlike many such players his film
shows talent to back up his athleticism. Concerns around him mainly focus on
the competition he faced and his injury history, but he has the
upside to become a top flight cornerback if everything works out.
15. Tennessee Titans – Jack
Conklin, OT/OG, Michigan State
I won’t pretend to understand it, but there’s been a lot of
buzz around Conklin over the past few weeks. There is now talk that he could
find his way up into the top ten of the draft, potentially even as the second
lineman off the board ahead of Stanley. This is a stretch for
a strong but slow footed lineman who will struggle in space, but even if he
doesn’t work out at tackle, the Titans could use a player like him at guard.
16. Detroit Lions – Andrew
Billings, DT, Baylor
It’s slightly tempting to go for a receiver after losing
Calvin Johnson, but most people don’t view the receivers this highly, and
Detroit has another former superstar they’re still trying to replace. Billings
is a different type of player from Ndamukong Suh—more of a space eater and less
of a pure nightmare—but he brings a lot to the table as a run defender, with
some intriguing possibilities as a pass rusher thrown into the mix.
17. Atlanta Falcons – Darron Lee,
LB, Ohio State
Lee could end up going higher than this, especially if teams
really have soured on Jack’s knee. Atlanta will leap at the opportunity if he’s
available here, an athletic linebacker to slide into Dan Quinn’s scheme. After
adding a top caliber pass rusher last year, the Falcons finally have something
to build around on defense.
18. Indianapolis Colts – Ryan
Kelly, C, Alabama
The first of a couple players to go in this round that I
never got around to breaking down film of. If any such players are
drafted on Thursday night, I’ll watch a couple games and have breakdowns
available on Friday. (Yes, I took a day off work so I could blog about the NFL
Draft. No, I don’t see anything wrong with that.) Kelly has been shooting up
boards for a while, and he will partner with Andrew Luck much in the way Jeff
Saturday partnered with Peyton Manning, an anchor for an overall shaky
offensive line.
19. Buffalo Bills – Paxton Lynch,
QB, Memphis
To the dismay of Tyrod Taylor supporters everywhere, Buffalo
has been openly searching for a quarterback for several weeks now. The most
recent rumor has them considering Christian Hackenberg at this pick, and that might
be a possibility if someone reaches and grabs Lynch ahead of them. But if he’s
available, I think they pull the trigger, only three years after wasting a
similar selection on EJ Manuel.
20. New York Jets: Noah Spence,
DE/LB, Eastern Kentucky
The Jets demonstrated last year that they are willing to
take the best player available regardless of positional need. It just so happens that this year the best player fits a significant position of need. The
Jets have an elite defensive line, but it is built around a collection of
interior dominators, and it lacks a speed presence around the edge. Spence is
pure speed, an explosive athlete with enough natural skills to develop into a
top notch pass rusher down the road.
21. Washington Redskins – Taylor
Decker, OT, Ohio State
Trent Williams has the left tackle position locked down in
Washington for years to come, but with as many great pass rushers are in the
league right now it has become essential for teams to have two quality tackles.
Decker has experience playing on the right side, and he brings good value at
twenty-one, with many people believing he has the potential to be selected in
the top fifteen.
22. Houston Texans – Will Fuller,
WR, Houston
I didn’t write about Fuller in my prospect breakdown because
this class is so deep at wide receiver, and because based on everything I’ve
read I didn’t imagine him actually making it into the first round. But
apparently the Texans have fallen in love with this speedy prospect, looking
past his horrifying drop issues in the hope that he can add a downfield threat
to complement DeAndre Hopkins’s physicality.
23. Minnesota Vikings – Josh
Doctson, WR, TCU
I would be surprised if the Vikings didn’t go with a wide
receiver, especially if they end up with their choice of Doctson and Laquon
Treadwell. They are looking for a big, physical threat on the outside, someone
Teddy Bridgewater can trust to fight for the ball and win in the red zone. Both
Treadwell and Docston fit this criteria, but Doctson’s athleticism is a step
above, and he is reportedly the top receiver for the Vikings.
24. Cincinnati Bengals – Laquon
Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
The Bengals also prefer Doctson, but if things work out this
way they’ll gladly take Treadwell as a consolation. They need to replace
receiver talent after losing Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency, and
Treadwell will give them another big target to line up across from AJ Green.
The concerns about his athleticism are worth noting, and it wouldn’t be a shock
to see the Bengals pass him up for someone like Michael Thomas or Corey
Coleman, but I think Treadwell’s talent is enough to keep him from falling too
far.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers – Karl
Joseph, S, West Virginia
Pittsburgh needs a cornerback, and it’s hard to pass up
Mackensie Alexander here. But they also need a safety, and Joseph is exactly
the kind of player they like. He flies all over the field and delivers
punishment to anyone he can find, and his ball skills will generate the turnovers
that have been so elusive for this defense. The Steelers will take
advantage of the opportunity to add cornerbacks later in this draft, trying to
build their secondary through quantity rather than quality.
26. Seattle Seahawks – Robert
Nkemdiche, DE/DT, Ole Miss
Somebody is going to take a chance and grab Nkemdiche in the
first round. It would make sense for it to be a team like Seattle, a franchise
with stability to handle any issues that arise with him over the next couple
years. They took an even bigger risk going after Frank Clark in the second
round last year, and it paid off with a solid and uncontroversial rookie
season. Nkemdiche has tremendous upside, and in a couple years it’s very
possible that we look back on this draft wondering how one of the best defenses
in the league managed to add another superstar at the bottom of the first
round.
27. Green Bay Packers – Reggie
Ragland, LB, Alabama
The Packers traditionally don’t place too much value on
interior linebackers, but after wasting Clay Matthews’s talents on the inside
last year, they realize a change needs to be made. They’ve already said that
Matthews is going back to the outside, and now they’ll find a way to fill his
shoes on the interior. Ragland will have to come off the field on third downs,
but Green Bay has enough working for them in their front seven to make this
minor sacrifice.
28. Kansas City Chiefs – Corey
Coleman, WR, Baylor
Coleman is the other player I think is destined to sneak
into the first round. He has too much talent to slide farther than this, and
someone is going to fall in love with the thought of what he can do with the
ball in his hands. In Philadelphia Andy Reid spent a first round pick
on Jeremy Maclin, who now happens to be with the Chiefs, and Coleman is a very similar
type player. Explosive running down the field, and absolutely lethal after the
catch. He can bring the spark that this offense has been missing and
ease the burden on Alex Smith.
29. Arizona Cardinals – A’Shawn
Robinson, DT, Alabama
I’m not really sure where Robinson is going to end up. He
has tremendous athletic potential, and he showed flashes of productivity in
college. Someone could easily fall in love and take him higher, or he could get
lost in a deep defensive tackle class and drop deep into the second round.
Arizona needs an infusion of young talent along their defensive front, and
Robinson is a good fit of both need and scheme.
30. Carolina Panthers – Michael
Thomas, WR, Ohio State
Carolina showed last year that they don’t care about need
whatsoever when they selected Shaq Thompson, an athletic linebacker to play
behind the most athletic linebacker combo in the league. Jason Spriggs would
make more sense for the immediate holes on their roster, but they could
definitely use a receiver as well, and Thomas is a borderline top twenty player
who falls because of a couple teams reaching for smaller, faster receivers.
31. Denver Broncos – Jason
Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Spriggs still ends up in the first round, going to Denver to
take over for the traded Ryan Clady. The Broncos offensive line has been brutal
for the past two seasons, and adding Spriggs will be a good first step towards
fixing it. It won’t be enough to make their offense a competitive unit again, but
it might be enough to keep Mark Sanchez healthy and save us from the horror of
watching Trevor Siemian play in an NFL game.
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