2016 Edge Defense Prospects

Pass rusher is one of the preeminent positions in the NFL, and this year provides a class that combines top tier talent with quality depth. Many have called this the strongest position in the class, and while I’m lower on it than most, I still see a lot of talent from the beginning to the end of the first round.

When judging pass rushing prospects, athleticism is often the first thing teams look for. And while there is strong evidence that this is a reasonable approach, a talented athlete is all the more valuable if he comes with technique to go along with his natural skills. Pass rushers need to be able to explode up the field, but they also need to be able to use their hands to generate separation from the blockers. They need to be strong to bend against pressure to the middle of the field, and they need to have secondary burst to close on the quarterback. Lateral quickness and secondary moves are also major pluses, the sort of skills that can turn a player from a quality starter into a consistent producer of double digit sacks.

Joey Bosa, Ohio State

At various times over the past year Bosa was considered the top player available in the draft. His combination of talent and production is unmatched in the class, and he is among the safest options available at the top of the draft. But over the past several months his stock has begun to fall, and while he is still absolutely a top ten pick, there are now questions about whether or not he’ll be selected in the top five.

This isn’t a case of people overthinking themselves. There are very reasonable justifications for the drop in Bosa’s stock. After 13.5 sacks his sophomore year, he had only 5 in 2015, a drop in production that has brought back some uncomfortable memories of Jadeveon Clowney two years ago. There are no real similarities between the two players beyond this, but the drop in production has highlighted some reasonable concerns about Bosa.

Bosa brings a lot of things to the table as a defensive end, but explosiveness isn’t one of them. He isn’t the sort who is going to launch off the snap around the corner and beat the quarterback to the back of his drop. His first step upfield isn’t anything special, and he struggles with bending around the corner and making plays through contact. He needs to become a better finisher if he is going to be a superstar at the next level, and even then he may be limited by the absence of a speed rush.

Bosa is a rare case among college pass rushers. Many edge prospects come into the league bringing nothing but speed, raw talents that NFL coaches believe they can turn into complete players. Bosa doesn’t have the typical speed, but he is already far more advanced as a player than many established NFL stars. His hand usage is a step above everyone else in this draft class, giving him the ability to shed blockers and make plays after initial contact. Combine that with phenomenal lateral quickness, and he becomes almost unblockable at times. I watched three games of his and saw well over a hundred plays, and I can probably count with just my fingers the number of times he was truly handled by an opposing lineman.

Generating immediate pressure may never be a strength of Bosa’s game, but he can still collect double digit sacks a year with his secondary and tertiary moves. This skill makes him just as dangerous against the run, and in addition to being arguably the best pass rusher in this class, he is far and away the best run defender. While I may not be willing to spend the first overall selection on him, anything after that is well worth the pick, and if he does fall out of the top five someone will be getting an incredible steal.

Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State

I am pretty close to consensus opinion on Bosa, but after that I find myself disagreeing with popular opinion for most of the players in group. And there is no edge player that I disagree about more strongly than Calhoun. Most projections have him as a second round prospect at best, probably the seventh or eighth pass rusher off the board. After watching three games of him, this still doesn’t make sense to me, as I see the clearcut second best edge rusher and a reasonable top fifteen player in the draft.

Unlike Bosa, Calhoun’s game is all about speed. He bursts off the ball up the field, and if he can get the edge, he can close on a quarterback in an instant. He’s stronger than most speed rushers, and he plays with good bend, making it difficult for linemen to force him upfield and giving the quarterback very little room to step up. If that doesn’t work, he has excellent lateral agility, which allows him to come back inside when a tackle tries to play him up the field.

His skills as a pass rusher aren’t much more advanced than that, but they might not need to be. Watching Calhoun, I was intrigued by the possibility that the position he played in college might not be the one he’d be best at in the NFL. As explosive as he is as an edge rusher, his greatest asset is his quickness in tight areas. He flows through traffic incredibly well, and he makes excellent reads of the field in front of him.

The role I see for Calhoun in the NFL is as an Anthony Barr type player. An off the ball linebacker who can make plays in space, then bump down to rush the passer in certain situations. Rather than battling in the trenches on a play in play out basis, he can blind blockers with occasional glimpses of his speed. He won’t need to win the long game as a technical pass rusher, because he won’t have to play the long game. If he can pull this off, he could become the cornerstone of a defense, a playmaker that will be the steal of the draft for whoever ends up getting him after the rest of these players have gone off the board.

Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky

You can’t discuss Noah Spence without discussing how he ended up at Eastern Kentucky. A former top recruit by Ohio State, he was forced to transfer after failing multiple drug tests and being kicked off the team. He proceeded to dominate at the lower level, but his background still raises concerns among some. But from all indications, he really has cleaned himself up, passing dozens of drug tests during his time at Eastern Kentucky and proving himself repeatedly off the field. There is always reason to fear a relapse, but every indication is that this will not significantly affect his draft stock.

On the field, Spence is an interesting prospect to try to figure out. His speed is jaw dropping, regularly winning from the very first step and bursting into the backfield. He explodes off the ball and races around the corner with good bend, usually giving the quarterback nowhere to go as he closes in on him. He mixes this up with occasional inside rushes, where his first step is enough to get him through a gap and into the backfield.

This is a great tool, and it will make him a dangerous weapon in the NFL. But it is also fairly one dimensional, and there are reasons to be concerned about whether he can do anything else. He does a good job using his hands to swat away a blocker once he’s won to the edge, but he doesn’t really use them in any other context. He has no ability to win if his initial move is shut down, and he isn’t going to be generating any sacks with relentless ability.

Against the run he can make some spectacular plays from the backside, but he is undersized and struggles to hold up at the point of attack. Working in an NFL training program will help him gain strength, but at least initially he will be confined to a role as a situational pass rusher. His speed is an asset worthy of a pick in the latter portion of the first round, but he is well below the more versatile options above him.

Leonard Floyd, Georgia

I seriously considered not including Floyd in this writeup and instead dropping him with the other linebackers in next week’s post. Though most projections have him listed as an edge rusher, he actually spent most of his time last year playing off the ball at Georgia. Part of this was by necessity, filling a more pressing hole on their defense, but part of it was an acknowledgement that he isn’t anything special as a rusher. Of the seven players on this list, he is the worst pass rusher, and if he makes it into the first round it will be due to the versatility he provides.

I don’t want this to sound like he doesn’t offer anything as a pass rusher. He absolutely does. He has good speed up the field, and he can beat blockers across their face through an interior gap. But his technique is raw, and he plays off balance, making it easy for good blockers to get into his chest and shove him aside. He finishes well through contact, but he struggles if the blocker stays in front of him, which is a problem for a player whose speed doesn’t measure up to Calhoun’s or Spence’s.

As a defender in space however, he offers enough intrigue to make him worth a late first round selection. His straight line speed isn’t fantastic, and he will struggle in coverage, but he makes good reads and flows to the ball well. He needs to be more aggressive at cutting through traffic rather than going around it, but in 2015 I saw a player succeeding at a mostly new position, a player who will only get better as he gains experience. Floyd is the sort of player any defensive coordinator could want, a jack of all trades who can slide into any number of roles. His ceiling is lower than most, and he won’t be collecting ten sacks a season, but he is absolutely the sort of player you would want to have filling a hole in your defense.

Kevin Dodd, Clemson

 

Speed is the most commonly praised feature of a pass rusher, and there is good reason for that. The essence of pass rushing is speed, beating a blocker to a point and gaining leverage to get to the quarterback. The most impressive plays are made with speed, when a rusher bursts untouched into the backfield and drags the quarterback down.

But as important as speed is as a tool, it often relies on power to be used properly. Fast rushers can be pushed aside if they aren’t strong, and strong rushers can make a big play out of a small gap. This is what Dodd brings to the table. He has decent burst off the line, and he can get around the corner, but he isn’t going to run circles around blockers. He doesn’t have the inside cutting ability of the four players I listed above, and he isn’t particularly technical in his rushing either. What he has is strength, enough to make something out of advantages that other players wouldn’t be able to use.

Dodd is at his best when he attacks into the shoulder of the lineman in front of him. When he tries to beat him upfield, he ends up bending too wide, leaving a lane for quarterbacks and running backs to escape underneath. When he tries to shoot a gap, he ends up pinned between two linemen. But when he attacks the player in front of him from an angle, he can bend blockers out of their path and give himself a small opening. From there, his strength can force him through that opening, leaving the blocker clutching helplessly at his jersey as he falls on the quarterback.

Dodd will never make the spectacular, untouched play in the backfield. He has a decent first step, but he is hurt by occasional slowness in reacting to the snap of the ball. What he can do, however, is finish through pressure, the sort of messy play that will be needed for any pass rusher to succeed in the NFL. His ceiling is a bit limited, and he probably won’t be able to contribute until he spends some time transitioning from college to NFL strength, but he is good enough at what he does to go in the latter portion of the first round.

Shaq Lawson, Clemson

After Bosa and Calhoun, the gaps between these rushers become harder to measure, and a team’s decision will ultimately come down to stylistic preference rather than actual talent. Do they want the explosive speed rusher in Spence, the versatile playmaker in Floyd, or the overpowering brute in Dodd? Or do they want Lawson, the high ceiling option who can do it all and yet struggles to do very much.

At first glimpse you could say that Lawson’s problems come down to consistency. A couple times during every game he will make a play that jumps off the screen, showing the potential that has some considering him a top ten selection. He has decent speed off the ball, and like his teammate Dodd he can power through contact into the backfield. He uses his hands to swat away a blocker’s arms as he rounds the corner, and he can keep himself clean as he makes a play on the quarterback.

But there are flaws in his game, and these flaws show up more often than the dominant moments. At times he can use his arms to keep himself clean, but far too often he rushes with his chest exposed, letting blockers get into him and control him. He can get into good position in the running game, but he struggles to disengage and make plays. Even when he does gain the advantage, he doesn’t have the burst to accelerate through it, and he will struggle to finish plays at the next level.

I’m about as low on Lawson as anyone is. I say the end of the first round is a good place for him, but in all likelihood he will go in the first twenty, and possibly in the top ten. And he could end up being worth it, if he can harness some consistency out of his flashes of brilliance. But when I watch him, I see a player who doesn’t have the overwhelming strength or quickness to consistently dominate in the NFL, and a few flashes here and there won’t be enough to turn him into a truly elite pass rusher.

Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma State

Draft favorability is a zero sum game. What this means is, if I’m higher than most on players like Calhoun and Floyd, I must also be lower than most on a couple players to make up for it. There are only 31 first round slots available, and there are only so many teams that will go after a pass rusher. So some players must be downgraded, players like Lawson and Ogbah who are considered top fifteen prospects by other analysts ranked down near the second round by me.

On paper I see it with Ogbah. On the field, not so much. He has all the talent in the world, arguably the most physically gifted pass rusher in this draft class, but it only occasionally translates onto the field. His first step is explosive, and he has the power to fight through weak contact, and most of his success in college came through some combination of these skills, racing around the edge before the tackle could get into his pass set. This is a valuable ability, and it will translate to some extent at the next level.

But as gifted as he is, Ogbah should have been able to dominate much more consistently in college. He has all the tools, but they never seemed to come together on one play. He’ll fire out of his stance, but he’ll come out too high, letting the blocker into his chest. His long arms and leg drive can bend an opposing lineman backwards, but he doesn’t disengage or do anything with his leverage. He works well through traffic, but he never applies his lateral quickness to an inside move.

If Ogbah can put it all together, he can become a Pro Bowl caliber defensive end. And in other years that might be enough to make him worth a mid first round pick. But with the strength and depth of this year’s edge rushing class, it’s hard to justify the risk he presents. I wouldn’t take him until the other six above are off the board, which likely won’t occur until the second round.