Monday, April 4, 2016

2016 Interior Defensive Line Prospects

NFL defenses have become increasingly versatile over the past ten years, to the point that it has become difficult to define players by a single position in the front seven. Some players play at every position along the defensive line, while others switch from down in a stance to rushing as a linebacker. The traditional definitions of defensive end versus linebacker versus defensive tackle are no longer capable of defining the roles in NFL schemes.

Realistically you could divide front seven players into nearly a dozen categories, but I am going to be satisfied with just three: interior linemen, edge rushers, and linebackers. I'll get to the rest over the next three weeks, but today I’m starting with the interior defensive line. These players vary from space eating run stuffers to interior penetrators, but however they play, there are certain skills that translate across the position. They need to be able to hold up against double teams in the run, and they need to be able to fend off blockers with their hands. The ability to penetrate is also a plus, but it’s not as crucial as it is on the outside. More often than not, the key to playing on the defensive interior is consistency and reliability, with occasional splash plays viewed as a bonus.


DeForest Buckner, Oregon
Buckner’s best is by a decent margin the best of any player in this draft class, and he’s at his best often enough that you can make a strong case for him as the top player available. Physically he is as impressive as any player in the class, standing 6-7 and weighing 291 pounds. He can play just about any position on the defensive line, and he can fit into almost any scheme. If I was the Titans with the first overall pick, I would give serious consideration to using it on Buckner.

Buckner is a physical marvel, but what really sets him above other defensive linemen is the way he uses his hands. His most common move in college was simply to attack the opposing lineman with a devastating punch, bending them backwards with his strength and marching them into the backfield. From there he had a variety of techniques to get himself free, from rips to swims to clubs. He usually plays on the opposing side of the ball, and he is usually free to make a play if the ball comes his way.

The biggest issues I saw with Buckner come down to consistency. Part of this is effort based, and part of it is technique. At times he doesn’t use his hands to his advantage, and when this happens his towering frame can be a disadvantage, giving blockers access into his chest. He struggled to hold up against the run when placed between the guards, and if he plays there in the NFL it will probably be best in passing situations only.

There are definitely questions about Buckner going forward. He showed good burst in college, and he should be able to apply that to becoming more of a penetrator if the scheme asks, but that wasn’t a skill he commonly demonstrated. He may not make plays deep in the backfield like some of the best players in the NFL do. But even if he can’t take this leap, he is still worth a top five pick. At worst he’s a quality starter with occasional flashes of dominance. At best, he becomes one of the best defensive players in football, a monster who will devour offensive lines on a regular basis.

Andrew Billings, Baylor
Buckner is the best interior lineman in the class, but Billings is probably my favorite. A physical behemoth of a defensive tackle, his value is hurt somewhat by his lack of versatility. Billings is a classic nose tackle, and he does all the typical nose tackle stuff. He swallows up the middle of the offensive line, he stuffs running backs in short yardage, and he absorbs double teams like they’re nothing. But it’s what he does beyond this that makes him special.

A nose tackle isn’t worth much in the NFL these days. Most only play on first and second down, replaced by smaller, quicker rushers in passing situations. This may be the case for Billings as well, but I think he offers more versatility than the standard big man. He is remarkably quick on his feet for someone his size, and he shows excellent skill with his hands for someone who plays so much on the interior. Not only can he absorb blockers, he can beat them as well, and he can make plays in the backfield against both the run and the pass.

The fact that he makes these plays hurts him every now and then, as he gets too aggressive and exposes the defense to vulnerabilities a more traditional nose tackle wouldn’t leave. He sometimes tries to go around the offensive linemen, forcing himself into one gap and leaving a hole for a running back up the other. He does a good job riding the blocker laterally to cut off the running back, but he sometimes goes too far, leaving a running lane open behind him.

Billings looks like your traditional nose tackle, but closer examination reveals a much more dynamic player. At the same time, his size will pose some problems on the next level, and he still may not be an every down player. As much as I like him, it’s hard to justify spending a high pick on someone without the versatility to face all comers in the modern NFL. Billings is one of the few I would justify spending a first round pick on at all, and even then I’d be hesitant to take him in the top twenty.

Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss
The only thing more staggering than Nkemdiche’s talent is the uncertainty that surrounds him. A former top recruit, on paper Nkemdiche looks like one of the best football players in the world, and at times this even carries over onto the field. At other times, he looks like someone with no ability or interest in football, which combined with pressing off the field concerns has dropped him possibly into the second round.

Nkemdiche will make his money with his first step, which is far and away the best of the draft class. He gets off the ball and up the field with mind boggling speed, and he is capable of taking a runner down five yards deep in the backfield. When he can shoot through a gap clean, he is a disruptive force like no other. But when things don’t go perfectly right, there isn’t much he can do. He doesn’t fight past the initial surge, and he doesn’t finish well through contact, meaning that even on plays where he gets the initial advantage he can be pushed away before he can do any damage.

The part that makes Nkemdiche both frustrating and intriguing is that he shows flashes of being able to do more. When he uses his hands, he can create tremendous separation, which allows him to use devastating swim and spin moves to get into the backfield. He has the ability, but he doesn’t use it often enough to make a real difference.

The questions with Nkemdiche are nearly endless. Does he have the ability to make plays consistently in the NFL? Does he have the drive to become the best he can be? Can he keep himself clean off the field? Too many questions for me to spend a first round pick on, even with the talent he displays. Someone could very easily end up getting a steal in the early second, but I’d hate to end up with what Nkemdiche could turn out to be with a first round pick.

Sheldon Rankins, Louisville
Rankins is far and away the best pass rusher I saw among interior defensive lineman, and he is also far and away the worst run defender. He gets overpowered far more often than any 300 pound person should, and it happens both against double teams and single blocks. He will never be able to play a traditional nose tackle position, and he will struggle some if he has to weather play after play between the tackles.

As a pass rusher, it is a completely different story. His game begins with his initial step, which is often enough to beat an opposing linemen out of their stance and get him into the backfield. He can get skinny to slide through a gap, but even if he can’t find one, he isn’t defeated. He almost always attacks with his hands, and he boasts the most versatile set of moves in the class, attacking from multiple directions and angles to get himself towards the quarterback.

This ability with his hands gives him some hope as a run defender, even if it’s something he will have to improve on significantly at the next level. He shows flashes of being able to get into the backfield against the run, and he is a strong tackler when he gets near a ball carrier. His strength will always be an issue, but he has the ability to grow into a better player than he is right now. This potential might tempt me into using a first round pick on him, but I am still hesitant about grabbing an interior player who is this vulnerable against the run. A good coordinator will find a way to hide this, but it will require some work to take advantage of his full abilities.

Jarran Reed, Alabama
Reed is a very similar style of player to Billings, just without the dynamic ability that makes Billings worthy of a first round pick. He can stuff up the middle and hold his ground against multiple blockers, but he very rarely does more than that. In the past this would have been enough to make him a valuable player, but in the pass heavy modern NFL, this simply doesn’t cut it for an every down player.

Despite his shortcomings, Reed still does a lot of good things to make him worth a second round pick. He engages well with his hands off the snap of the ball, giving him separation that will allow him to continue to find success even against stronger opposition in the NFL. From that point on his hands don’t do much, and he struggles to break away from contact. But he can still stick an arm out when the ball carrier comes by, and with his strength that can be enough to bring a running back down.

The lack of pass rushing ability is his biggest problem, and it will likely remain that way his entire career. He isn’t explosive off the snap, he isn’t quick in tight spaces, and he can’t do much to shed blockers. He doesn’t even get push to collapse the pocket into the quarterback’s face. This is a major flaw in his game, and he doesn’t have the skills to correct it, making him a player with a definitely low ceiling. But he will still be a reliable option in the NFL for several years going forward, worth a pick even if that option disappears on third down.

A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama
Robinson is freakishly gifted physically, and it shows itself on the field just often enough to hide a mediocre football player. Early in the process I saw him projected in some cases as a top fifteen pick, but as things have gone on he’s fallen into a more appropriate slot in the second round. Flashes of ability make him at least somewhat intriguing, but I saw very little in his college tape to suggest he’ll be a consistent impact player.

Robinson isn’t explosive, and he isn’t particularly skilled either. He’s slow off the ball, and his hand usage is inconsistent. In college it wasn’t a problem when blockers got leverage on his chest, but NFL offensive linemen will be able to push him around if he can’t protect himself. He stuffed things up in college, but he could easily find himself moving backwards on a regular basis at the next level.

He doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher, and he doesn’t cover a lot of ground side to side. His athleticism is certainly enough for him to do so, and a lot of times it appears to come down to motor. This is what makes him interesting, because he has all the ability he needs to leap forward in the NFL. With good coaching and the right circumstances, he could turn into a player worthy of a first round selection. But right now, he spends most of his time as someone content to absorb blockers and stand in the middle while the defense makes plays around him.

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