2016 Wide Receiver Prospects

On Monday I posted my breakdown of the cornerback position group. Today I’m coming with their offensive counterparts, the wide receivers. This year has a deep class of receivers that lacks the elite options available the past couple seasons. There is talent to be found here, but it won’t be as easy to sort out as in 2014 or 2015.

There are a lot of different ways to succeed at wide receiver in the NFL. Route running is a valuable skill, but separation can also be achieved through speed and explosion. Bigger, more physical receivers can outmuscle defenders for the ball, and smaller ones can run circles around tacklers. I look for all of these skills when I scout receivers, and the lack of one can be compensated for by the presence of others. In the end, it comes down to the ability to create separation, reliability in catching the ball, and the skill to make a play where other receivers wouldn’t be able to, however they go about doing so.

Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss

Treadwell is the most complete receiver in the draft, even though there isn’t any one thing he does that jumps out over everyone else. His game is built around his strength at the point of the catch, but he complements that with quality route running and running ability with the ball in his hands. He is an excellent blocker, and from the way he throws himself around he looks like he actually enjoys it as well. He isn’t overly tall and doesn’t jump through the roof, but he can win balls over the top well enough to be a dangerous red zone threat.

Treadwell’s biggest questionmark is his speed. He raised some eyebrows when he elected not to run the forty at the Combine, and he only gave the doubters more fuel by running a 4.65 at his Pro Day. The issue of speed does present itself on the field, where he isn’t particularly dangerous over the top. He can get some good separation as his route develops, but he isn’t going to blow a defender away at the snap of the ball, and down the field he’s going to have to rely on his size rather than his speed to generate big plays.

But as nice as big plays are, they often get overrated. Treadwell is fantastic at the smaller plays, at creating separation underneath and producing across the middle of the field. He needs to get better at using his body to shield defenders from the catch point, but he has all the physical tools to become one of the best in the league at physicality.

Treadwell is quicker than any receiver as thick as he is has any right to be. A common way to deal with a receiver with his lack of top end speed is to play them tight to the line, not fearing being beaten over the top. But Treadwell is so quick with his initial moves that he simply cannot be pressed, and even if he can’t beat a team with one massive stab, he can kill them with a dozen smaller cuts. This quickness translates to after the catch as well, where he is almost as difficult to catch as he is to tackle.

Treadwell’s ceiling may be lower than some of the other top receivers in the league, but he can do enough things that I would consider him just outside the top ten in this draft. There is some risk involved, but overall I’d say he’s probably the safest receiver in this class. He’ll be a starter from day one in the league, with the potential to become a regular Pro Bowl player.

Josh Doctson, TCU

From the moment he enters the league, Doctson will be one of the five best jump ball receivers in the NFL. He possesses a rare blend of size, explosion, timing, and hand strength that sets him apart from even the best at going up and getting the ball. He tracks the ball remarkably well in the air, and he is an expert at timing his jumps and his reaches. If he can get behind a defender, the play is essentially over, as he waits until the very last second to extend his hands to prevent the defensive back from knocking the ball away.

Doctson’s leaping ability is a class above the rest of the receiver group, but it isn’t his only tool. He’s an effective if unspectacular route runner who was limited by an unimaginative offense at TCU. Most of his damage in college was done as a deep threat, where his speed and leaping ability produced a couple big plays each game. But he is capable than much more of that, able to generate separation underneath with sharp turns and deceptive moves.

Doctson does have some limitations to his game. As a deep threat he could do a better job to avoid getting pressed against the sideline, giving the quarterback a bigger window for the football and himself more room to jump. He is strong enough to shed an occasional tackler, but he doesn’t do much after the catch. There is definitely some risk that Doctson proves to be one dimensional at the next level, that he cannot develop the ability to exploit defenses underneath.

There is one more factor to consider with Doctson, and that’s his age. Due to four years of eligibility and a year sat out as a transfer, he is already 24 years old, older than established NFL stars like Allen Robinson and Amari Cooper. This isn’t a major problem, but it does pose questions about his development curve going forward. Is his ceiling lower than that for younger players? How much of his physical dominance in college was simply the product of being a year or two older than the players he was facing?

This isn’t a major factor, and it shouldn’t play a deciding role in the drafting process. But as a tiebreaker, I think it’s fair to take into consideration. On a strictly talent level, I’d have trouble choosing either of Doctson or Treadwell over the other. But with this as an extra factor (Treadwell will be 21 when the 2016 season starts), I slide Doctson a notch lower on my receiver rankings.

Michael Thomas, Ohio State

When studying a position like wide receiver, it often becomes difficult to know how to factor production into the analysis. There is so much data out there that it would be irresponsible to ignore (though some very good scouts still swear by this method), but there are also a lot of factors that can influence numbers that we need to consider as well. From a pure production standpoint, Thomas doesn’t measure up with the other top receivers in this class. So when looking at him we have to ask, why weren’t his numbers better? How much of it was the situation he was put in, and how much of it was Thomas himself?

From a physical tools perspective there may not be any more impressive receiver in the class. At 6-3 and 212 pounds, he boasts the size to outmatch any cornerback and the speed to explode over the top. His route running is also among the best in the class, and he can generate incredible separation with a simple, deceptive stutter that allows him to break in any direction without tipping anything to the defender.

From a physical perspective Thomas combines the strengths of Doctson and Treadwell without any of the weaknesses. He nearly matches Doctson’s height while also having the good bulk on his frame, and he has close to Treadwell’s strength without sacrificing top end speed. Were their situations reversed, it’s very likely that Thomas could have put up the same sort of numbers the other two did. But in a run first system at Ohio State, his ability to produce was limited.

There are a few other factors that have caused me to drop Thomas below the other two. He doesn’t have either player’s ability to win catches through traffic, and he catches with his chest too much. This didn’t translate to drops in college, but it could at the next level. He doesn’t show much interest in blocking, and he doesn’t go outside his frame to make a lot of catches.

Thomas’s lack of productivity raises some concern, and his other limitations drop him just outside the top twenty in my mind. But the talent is undeniable, and five years from now if you tell me that a receiver from this class is the best in the league, my money would probably be on Thomas (or one other receiver a little further down this list). His ceiling is less defined than the two above him, but his floor is a bigger concern.

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh

Sometime down the road there is a decent chance we’ll look back on the 2016 draft and wonder how the hell some team or other managed to steal Boyd in the second or third round. Every year it seems like we see a player like Boyd, someone whose physical abilities fail to measure up to his overall skill as a football player drops because he doesn’t fit the mold of what an NFL wide receiver looks like. Boyd disappointed at the Combine, and he has some off the field concerns that will keep him from rising as high as his talent says he should go, but he is still one of the top five receivers in this class.

Boyd does all the little things you can want from a wide receiver. He’s the best route runner of the receivers I studied, making sharp breaks and selling fakes with his entire body to create separation. He’s a good blocker, and he can make plays after the catch. He has good size, and his hands are as strong as any in the class, allowing him to consistently win contested catches.

What worries me is how frequently he had to rely on these contested catches in college. Someone with his quickness and route running ability should have been wide open far more frequently that he was, and this is where we really see the physical shortcomings come into play. He can create separation with his routes, but he can’t widen it with his speed, and cornerbacks with NFL skill can close the gaps he creates. He may struggle to get open against the more impressive athletes at the next level, and there isn’t much he can do to improve himself on this front.

If Boyd succeeds, he will become another example for the people who love to ridicule the draft process’s overemphasis on physical traits, joining a list that includes players like Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson. But if he fails, he will hardly be the first example of a receiver who couldn’t cut it physically in the league. I don’t think he will fail, but I think there’s a decent chance he will top out as a high caliber slot receiver. There is some value in this, but only enough to get him into the end of the first round.

Corey Coleman, Baylor

When discussing Michael Thomas I mentioned that there was one receiver farther down the list who I could see becoming the best player in the class. Well, that receiver is Coleman, without question the biggest boom or bust threat among this year’s receivers. At only 5-11 and 194 pounds, he doesn’t have the physical stature of the other receivers on this list, but his speed and quickness is on another level, enough to make up for other questionable parts of his game.

Before we go any further, I have to stress how difficult it is to scout Coleman. At Baylor he almost always did one of four things: run a go route, run a hitch, run a slant, or absolutely nothing. And by absolutely nothing, I mean absolutely nothing. There were plays where, as soon as the ball was snapped, he turned and looked to the sideline to get the next call. This reflects less on him as a player than on the scheme he was put in, a high tempo system that saves players’ energy by letting them take plays off. But it makes it even more difficult to project Coleman to the next level.

There is no more erratic receiver in the draft than Coleman. He can absolutely burn teams over the top, but he can also be knocked off his route by a simple shove. He is easily brought down when a defender can get a hand on him, but he can also be insanely elusive, with the sort of quick stop-start ability that almost looks impossible. He’s good for a drop or two a game, but he is also good for one or two spectacular plays.

I honestly don’t know what to make of Coleman. Both extremes of his potential scare the hell out of me. And it could ultimately come down to the situation he ends up in, whether the offense can use him properly and the coaches can develop his talent. I’d be hesitant to use a first round pick on him, but I would also feel as if I’m getting a tremendous steal anywhere in the second round.

Braxton Miller, Ohio State

We all know the story with Miller. A former superstar quarterback who transitioned to wide receiver after injuries, his production is limited by the same run first scheme that I discussed with Thomas above. But after being the most impressive player on the field at the Senior Bowl, most scouts seem convinced that Miller is capable of playing receiver at the NFL level, even if he’ll need a bit more work than other top prospects.

As a quarterback Miller was one of the most elusive and dynamic players in college football with the ball in his hands, and that is just as true at receiver. A smart offense will be able to use him right away in packages that get him out in space and let his athleticism take over. But as a receiver, he still has a lot of work to do. He is still learning how to harness his quickness as a route runner, and he has a pretty glaring false step off the line that makes it easy for defenders to get into his face and stuff him before he can get off. These little things can be worked on, but they limit his immediate impact and add an extra risk factor going forward.

At the same time, there are parts of his game that are tremendously advanced for someone just learning the position. He tracks the ball extremely well in the air, and he does an excellent job going outside his body to make the catch. His hands are not a concern, and his athleticism gives him tremendous upside. Miller is one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sneak into the end of the first round, even though I think it’s safer to take him somewhere in the early part of the second.

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers

Strong hands seem to be a consistent trend among this year’s receiver class, and Carroo fits that mold as well as any of the others. He is a big receiver who specializes in making catches in traffic, and whose lack of breakaway ability means he spends a lot of time in traffic. He can work into some decent speed if he has time to build to it, but he isn’t going to blow by defenders off the line, meaning that down the field he often has to rely on his ability to outfight defenders for the ball in order to make catches.

As a route runner he is nothing spectacular, but he is a smart player who can get open by adjusting his routes to the openings in the defense. Defenders can close on him quickly, but he is good at shielding them away with his body and at giving the quarterback a wide range to throw to. His instincts extend to what he does with the ball in his hands, where he can work himself through traffic and always seems to finish forwards.

Carroo’s upside is fairly limited, but he can make a good number two or three receiver in the league. He’ll win balls over the middle and occasionally make a spectacular play over the top, the sort of weapon any offense would happily take. Mid to late second round would be a good place for him, assuming some off the field issues have been cleaned up as I’ve heard. He’s nothing special, but if a team doesn’t get one of the players above, Carroo is a solid consolation.