Monday, March 28, 2016

2016 Cornerback Prospects



The NFL draft is now exactly one month away, so it’s time to start digging into the players available. Over the next four weeks I will bring you a breakdown of some of the top players in the draft, starting today with the cornerbacks.

For each position group I selected between six and eight players that are projected to go high in the draft. My goal is to cover every player who could go in the first round, though inevitably this will fail. There will be some players who go in the first round that I did not look at, and there will be players that I did look at who will not be drafted in the first three rounds.

But let’s not worry about that. Let’s instead focus on the six cornerbacks I selected to break down. As with every breakdown I do, they will be listed in the order I would take the them in the draft, with the best first and the worst last. I’ll also begin each writeup with a breakdown of exactly what I’m looking for when scouting the position group.

I’ll begin this one by admitting that, of all the groups, this is the one you should most take with a grain of salt. Cornerback is the position I understand the least about, and it is the most difficult to scout with the film I have available, which only shows the TV angles and cuts off the deeper routes by the wide receivers.

When watching defensive backs, I look for a mix of explosiveness and technique. Balance is crucial to being able to keep up with receivers, the ability to react to an initial move without becoming to vulnerable to a counter. Good defensive backs can play in a variety of schemes, either running deep with a receiver or pressing him at the line. But these technical matters are also things that can be accounted for by coaching at the next level, so I also have to look at pure ability. Recovery speed to track down receivers once they’re beaten, instincts and coordination to play the ball in the air, and explosiveness downhill are often signs that a cornerback can become more in the NFL than they were in college.

Jalen Ramsey, Florida State
Since this is the very first player I’m covering, I’ll start by giving a basic overview of how I do these evaluations. For every player I watch three games of tape (available through the wonderful DraftBreakdown.com). For the first two games I create a list of notes, which I then look back on prior to watching the third game and writing up my analysis. For the most part these notes take the form of a bulleted list of pros and cons, which I use to supplement a more general view of the player I get over three games of tape.

This whole process occurs over the span of about two months, but for the most part my memory is good enough that the notes erve as a supplement to the overall thoughts I gathered from the first two times watching the player. Very rarely am I surprised by anything I find going back through my notes. It just so happens that Ramsey is one of these exceptions.

When reading over the notes, I was surprised to find that I had almost nothing negative to say about Ramsey. I pointed out that he can occasionally struggle to stick with receivers in zone coverage, and that he lets receivers across his face to easily, but 90% of what I had to say about him was positive. I had always had him pegged as the top cornerback in the draft, but until the final time through I was a bit confused why so many scouts have him rated among the best players at any position.

The discovery I made reading my notes is a pretty good summary of Ramsey as a player. He doesn’t do anything spectacular that will stick with you after you watch him, but he is also a remarkably clean and efficient player. His technical skills in coverage are unmatched by any player in this draft, and his athleticism is so smooth and natural that it almost seems unimpressive.

Ramsey plays with excellent balance in every phase of coverage. He can press receivers at the line, but even if he’s beaten off the snap he has the ability to recover. He doesn’t bite on double moves, and he is difficult to beat over the top, made even more of a challenge by his length, speed, and ball skills. Perhaps his best asset is his ability to use the sideline to cut down throwing windows. He forces receivers to widen their routes as they run down the field, and he does so without getting overly physical in a way that will draw penalties, relying instead on subtle positioning of his body to force the receiver towards the sideline.

Ramsey’s stock is bolstered by many who believe he could play safety in the NFL as well as cornerback. In the games I watched I never saw him take a snap at safety, but the skills I saw him display could very easily transition to that position. He is incredibly physical and difficult to block, and he is a serious threat as a blitzer off the edge. I would probably still stick him at cornerback, but he offers the sort of versatility that could be even more valuable in the right scheme.

I’m still not as high on Ramsey as some others, but he is the class of the cornerbacks and definitely worthy of a top ten, or even a top five selection. He is the best cornerback prospect I’ve seen in the three years I’ve been doing this, and he will be able to contribute immediately in the NFL.

Vernon Hargreaves, Florida
Hargreaves lacks the physical profile of a player like Ramsey, but he has enough skill that he should still end up in the top half of the first round. Though his height limits his ability to win balls at the point of the catch and to close down windows over the top, his inherent athleticism gives him plenty of ability to make plays to erase his occasional shortcomings.

Hargreaves is another master technician. He played in a wide variety of coverages at Florida, ranging from press man at the line of scrimmage to a deep zone. Some of these schemes definitely worked to his strengths more than others, but he is comfortable with just about anything he’ll be asked to do at the NFL level. In man coverage he can mirror opposing receivers, and in zone he can use his instincts to make plays as the ball comes near him. He is also a spectacular tackler, and he will offer an immediate impact as a defender in the run game and the short passing attack.

When Hargreaves has a problem, it comes because he commits too early. Whether turning his hips too soon and letting a comeback beat him underneath, or biting on a double move and getting burned over the top, he can be exploited by crisply run routes. His recovery ability isn’t great, hindered by a lack of explosion towards the ball and his underwhelming physical stature.

Hargreaves has some shortcomings, but in the end he is just a playmaker. He finds a way to be around the ball, and he finds a way to make something out of it. Ramsey is the better cornerback, but Hargreaves will likely lead him in interceptions most seasons. And when he gets the ball in his hands, he is even more dangerous, offering an extra dimension as a punt returner. If given a choice, I’d always take the shut down cornerback over the big play star, but it’s not a choice I’d feel too bad about either way.

William Jackson, Houston
Jackson was one of the big winners at the Combine, and he’s ridden that burst into the first round conversation. While his performance still hasn’t answered the concerns about the level of competition he faced, his sensational 4.37 forty showed that he can keep up with any receiver put across from him. This comes through on the tape as well, where he was consistently a problem for the whatever receiver he faced.

Jackson has some work to do to become more consistent, but at the peak of his game he is a true shutdown cornerback. With good length and great speed, he has the ability to challenge receivers at the line and to keep up with them over the top. He isn’t great as a tackler, but he is willing to stick his nose in, and that’s half the battle for a cornerback. But where he’ll really earn his money is in coverage, where his ball skills and closing speed make him a truly dangerous player on the outside.

There are definitely some holes in his game, and he’ll need some development in the NFL before he reaches his peak. He spends a bit too much time reading the receiver, sitting on his heels with inside leverage and letting the route develop. This gives him the ability to break quickly to close out underneath and outbreaking routes, but it leaves him vulnerable to deep passes and double moves to the inside. His usual method of dealing with this was just to hit the receiver at the top of the route, an option that will no longer be available in the NFL.

The technique can be a bit unrefined, but in pure skill he may be matched only by Ramsey. He breaks sharply on the ball, and he always gets his head around, even when he’s been beaten. He has good hands and excellent strength fighting for the ball, and he’ll make plays to go along with tracking receivers in coverage. Often times we make the mistake of putting too much emphasis on a player’s performance at the Combine, but in Jackson’s case the numbers only brought attention to what we should have seen all along, that he is one of the best cornerbacks in the draft and that he should be selected somewhere in the first half of the first round.

Eli Apple, Ohio State
Apple is the most physical cornerback available in the draft. At 6-1 and 199 pounds, he has the size to match up against nearly any receiver in the NFL. And he uses that size to his full advantage, playing tight at the line of scrimmage and hitting the opposing receiver before they can get into their route. He ruins the timing of plays, and at his best he can lock on and prevent a receiver from even making it downfield.

Obviously, this will lead to some problems with the transition to the NFL, where the rules regarding pass coverage are a lot stricter than in college. He was called for too many penalties at Ohio State, and he’ll get even more if he doesn’t change his style. Physicality will always be the biggest asset he has, but going forward he won’t be able to rely on it nearly as much as he has to this point.

So the question we have to ask when scouting him is whether or not he can make this adjustment. And for the most part, I think the answer is yes. He has excellent speed to go along with his size, running a 4.40 forty at the Combine and regularly displaying that straight line speed on the field. Receivers don’t run away from him over the top, and with his length it is very difficult to beat him going deep.

His ability to stack receivers up at the line limited how often he had to show it, but his ability to keep up with receivers on their routes is remarkably smooth. His hips transition quickly, and his feet stay underneath him most of the time. There is definitely some risk to him going forward, but all the skills are there, and at only 20 years old he has plenty of time to grow and develop into one of the better cornerbacks in the league.

Mackensie Alexander, Clemson
Popular perception of Alexander has been all over the place since the beginning of this process. At times I’ve seen him ranked among the top ten players of the draft, but after watching him on film I find myself siding with the people who still have him at the bottom end of the first round. The hype around him seems strange, particularly for a player who doesn’t display that much to impress me in either physical ability or technical skill.

Alexender is on the smaller end of the spectrum like Hargreaves, but unlike Hargreaves he actually plays as small as he is. He doesn’t have the ability to move receivers on their routes, and he offers next to nothing in the running game. Receivers beat him easily across his face, and he struggles to make plays on the ball, partially due to difficulties locating it and partially due to his below average physical stature.

There is one aspect of Alexander’s game that stands out, and that’s his ability to close downhill. He has fantastic burst when the ball is in the air, and if he can stay close enough to the receiver, he can get himself in position to make plays. He still has work to do when it comes to making these plays, as evidenced by his failure to generate a single interception in his college career, but if he can clean up his technique in coverage, he can become a dangerous cornerback.

In the end though, the technique is my biggest concern. He wasn’t challenged a lot in college, asked to play a lot of bail coverage that surrendered a number of easy completions underneath. And when he was put into a man on man situation, he struggled with guesses and was vulnerable to double moves. With only two years of college experience, he still has room to grow. But it will take some time before he’s ready to start in the NFL.

Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech
Fuller was one of the biggest names coming into the 2015 season, but a disappointing year has likely dropped him out of the first round. He missed time with injuries, and when he was on the field he struggled to keep up with opposing receivers. In the long run the problems he has may be fixable, but they also pose serious questions about how well he will transition to the NFL.

Fuller has some impressive physical tools, with solid size to go along with good speed. He plays with aggression, and he will make a number of big plays, which is what got him all the attention prior to this past season. But his aggression can also come back to bite him, leading to mistakes in coverage that leave wide receivers wide open.

Fuller has a lot of small problems that you might dismiss as fixable with coaching, but together they add up into a seriously flawed player. He bites too hard on double moves, and he gives receivers too easy access to the middle of the field. He doesn’t get his head around to play the ball, and he will draw a lot of pass interference penalties unless he cleans things up. Perhaps even more troubling are his physical shortcomings, a lack of burst that prevents him from recovering from his mistakes and limits his ability to come downhill and make plays on the ball.

It’s easy to dismiss a lot of this as the product of injuries, so I went back and watched tape from one of his games in 2014. And I saw a lot of the same flaws, even if they weren’t quite as highlighted as they were in 2015. Fuller could still turn into a quality starter, but his ceiling is limited, and he carries more risk than I would want from a first round pick.

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