Tuesday, April 19, 2016

2016 Offensive Line Prospects



It is a cliché to say that offensive line is the most overlooked position in football, but that doesn’t mean it’s not still true. Linemen are consistently overlooked by casual fans, and even I find myself falling victim to this at times. Fortunately, the people running these teams have a better understanding of the importance of an offensive line, and in all likelihood we will see five or six first round selections spent on linemen in this year’s draft.

Everyone knows linemen are big, but it is just as important that they are athletic. Playing on the line is all about the hands and the feet, getting into position to seal off a defender and then using hands to control him. Proper blocking technique requires walking a delicate line. Good linemen need to be able to grab hold of the defender across from them, but they can’t do it in a way that would draw a penalty. They need to constantly move their feet to remain in good position while getting their hands involved to fend off a defender, skills that need to translate every play in both the running and the passing game.

Laremy Tunsil, Ole Miss
Until last Thursday Tunsil was considered the favorite to be the first player selected in the draft, and even after Los Angeles’s move to the top of the draft, he is still unlikely to drop out of the top five. He is very clearly the top offensive lineman in the draft, a view held even by those who are higher on the rest of the class than I am. Tunsil is a plug and play left tackle from day one, the sort of player who will lock down the position for the next ten years.

Tunsil’s defining attribute is his footwork. He is incredibly light on his feet, keeping them constantly chopping to give him almost unlimited mobility in all directions. As a pass blocker he starts every play with a relatively shallow pass set, which for most other players would leave them vulnerable to a speed rush around the edge. But Tunsil’s athleticism is a match for any pass rusher he will face, and if the defender comes upfield, he has more than enough ability to recover and cut him off. The flexibility to be able to take this shallow set makes it impossible to beat him inside, and his lateral quickness keeps even advanced secondary moves from working against him.

The footwork plays just as crucial a role in his run blocking. Tunsil isn’t overpowering with his strength, and he’s not going to drive a defender ten yards backwards. But with his powerful hands and his quick feet, he can get his man turned any way he wants him, sealing off the hole and giving his running back an avenue to run through. Tunsil is a rare athlete on the offensive line, and his ability to move and to make blocks in open space will give an offensive coordinator options that simply wouldn’t be available on most other teams.

If I have a concern with Tunsil, it would be with his punch. He isn’t super aggressive with his hands, and he will sometimes sit back on his heels and let a defender get into his chest. This didn’t translate to much trouble in college, but it could cause problems against more powerful NFL rushers. But again, Tunsil’s footwork will save him, allowing him to adjust his balance and anchor against whatever is thrown his way.

In many ways Tunsil is like the very first player I wrote up this year, Jalen Ramsey. Like Ramsey, I wasn’t all that impressed the first time I watched him. It was only after three games of consistent dominance that I realized how good he is. He makes it look so casual that you almost don’t notice him, which is possibly the highest praise you could give an NFL lineman. While I don’t think he’s the best player in the draft, it wouldn’t have been ridiculous if he’d gone first overall. As it is, I think he is comfortably positioned in the top five.

Taylor Decker, Ohio State
Decker is the sort of lanky, athletic linemen that NFL teams love to grab in the first round. At 6-7 and 310 pounds, he has a long, lean frame that gives him a wide range of movement and makes him tough to beat in pass protection. His arms aren’t overly long, but they are more than satisfactory coupled with his aggressive strides and broad shoulders. Just drawn on paper, he is one of the most impressive linemen in the class, and his ceiling could be up there with any other tackle.

Decker combines his physical gifts with very solid technique. His feet aren’t as light as Tunsil’s, but few people’s are, and Decker firmly belongs in the next group down. He does a good job shadowing the defender in front of him to cut down any lanes to the quarterback. A long stride helps hide any mistakes, giving him the ability to explode backwards or come back downfield to handle any inside moves. And for a player as tall as he is, Decker doesn’t seem vulnerable to bull rushes, anchoring and holding his ground even when pass rushers get into his chest.

There is one glaring hole in Decker’s game, and it presents itself in both run and pass blocking. His upper body isn’t particularly strong, and he struggles to contain defenders after initial contact. His performance on the field got me to look up his combine numbers, and I wasn’t surprised to see that he only managed 20 reps on the benchpress, in the 13th percentile among offensive tackles. This definitely shows up on the field, where defenders regularly slide off him and push their way past. He gets beaten around the edge far more often than someone with his length and speed should, usually because pass rushers can absorb his weak punch and push their way through his arms to the quarterback.

These strength issues prevent him from being worth a top twenty pick, and they will cause a major problem if he has to play immediately. But a year or two down the road, after working with NFL trainers on an NFL workout schedule, it’s very possible that he could add the strength he needs. If he does, he will close the biggest hole in his game, and he has the ability to become a Pro Bowl offensive tackle. But that is still an uncertainty, and if it doesn’t pan out, the best he can be is a slightly below average starter.

Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame
On the actual night of the draft Stanley will almost assuredly be the second lineman off the board, possibly going in the top ten. And on paper, there seems to be reason for that. He has excellent size and decent athleticism, and he was highly productive in three years as a starter. If he’d come out last year, he probably would have been the first tackle taken, but he elected to return to Notre Dame for another year of quality work.

Stanley shares many of the strengths and weaknesses of Decker, and the two aren’t separated by much as prospects. Like Decker, Stanley is a lanky athlete with solid footwork and good movement skills. He doesn’t flow as well to the second level as Decker, but he does a better job moving in his pass set. Also like Decker, he struggles to control defenders after the point of engagement, though it isn’t as glaring or as damaging. He seems more aware of his shortcomings, and rather than leaning his entire body on the defender, he will sit back on his heels, choosing hand fighting over engagement and giving himself more time to react.

Stanley’s punch can be timid at times, and despite tremendously long arm, he is vulnerable to letting defenders into his chest. He does a decent job anchoring with his lower body, but he can still be overwhelmed by power, or at least turned to give up a lane. In the running game, he doesn’t control defenders, and he doesn’t even get his hips turned to seal them off. This part of the game will be a weakness of his right away, and it is something he will struggle with for much of his career.

Stanley’s natural athleticism and grace will make him a capable starter in the NFL, and he could probably slide in immediately in the right circumstances. For some teams this could make him more valuable than Decker, but I still wouldn’t select him in the top twenty.There are too many small things holding him back, and it will take a lot of work for him to clean these up.

Jack Conklin, Michigan State
In Conklin we have the other end of the spectrum from Decker and Stanley. Built like a boulder, his game is based on power rather than athleticism. At his best when he attacks downhill, he can absolutely maul defenders in the running game. His punch knocks people backwards, and his hands latch on like iron vices. Once he has you, it’s nearly impossible to break free, and his feet are quick enough to get him turned to seal off running lanes.

Conklin’s punch is powerful, but it is also inconsistent, often coming in with his hands too wide. This does three things: it causes him to miss the target, it leaves him vulnerable to holding penalties, and it lets defenders into his chest. Conklin anchors well, but he still gets bent backwards far too often, and pass rushers who can transition to a secondary move will have no trouble getting past him. He has a habit of stopping his feet as well, and advanced pass rushers will eat him alive on the edge.

These issues are fixable with coaching, but the same can’t be said of all of Conklin’s flaws. Simply put, he doesn’t have the ability to move side to side in the way the tackles above him can. He doesn’t get good depth on his drop, and he can’t recover to the inside to react to a counter move. Over and over again he is beaten in space, both as a pass blocker and in the running game.

Conklin’s value will depend on how a team decides to use him in the NFL. I think whoever drafts him will try to put him at tackle, and I think this will turn out poorly. Conklin is a below average tackle in the NFL, but he could be a high quality guard. Lateral quickness still matters on the inside, but it’s easier to hide there than on the edge. His strength will make him an asset in the running game wherever he plays, and at guard his flaws can be covered well enough to make him a very valuable piece on an offensive line.

Jason Spriggs, Indiana
There are a lot of little things that hold Spriggs back from being among the top tier of this class, but on the whole he is a very solid player capable of contributing immediately as an NFL tackle. Physical in the running game and athletic as a pass blocker, he provides a nice balance and shows plenty of room for growth. He could probably use to add some weight, but other than that he is physically what you want from a tackle, and he is worth a first round pick for a team that feels they can correct his issues.

Most of his problems are technical rather than physical. He overall displays good technique, but he’s hurt by moments of sloppiness. He has good footwork that gets him to his landmarks quickly and gives him the ability to mirror defenders in front of him, but his feet will occasionally come to a stop at the point of contact. He can recover well due to good lateral agility, but he sometimes will get his hips turned too far, surrendering the edge and letting strong pass rushers push their way to the quarterback.

The most interesting part of Spriggs’s game is his punch. I’m not sure if this is how his coaches taught him or just the way he plays, but after his punch—which is more than effective in stopping an oncoming rusher—he doesn’t really latch on. He prefers to sit back on his heels and handfight with the defender. This gives him room to react, but it also gives the rusher room to work moves, and against elite defenders of the sort he will face regularly in the NFL, he struggled to contain secondary attacks. On the rare occasion he was aggressive, he had a habit of leaning too far forward, compromising his balance and exposing him to embarrassing defeats.

Spriggs can become a high caliber NFL tackle, and his potential could be up there with either Decker or Stanley. But there is a lot in need of fixing here, and it will take some time to make the necessary changes. It’s entirely likely that he settles in as just a middle tier starter, the sort of player who can hold his own but will be exposed just often enough to prevent him from being considered a top flight tackle.

Cody Whitehair, Kansas State
 
Whitehair is another college tackle who will be forced to move inside at the next level, though for different reasons than Conklin. A short stature and short arms hold him back, as does a general lack of physical ability. He doesn’t move well, and he doesn’t overpower defenders in front of him. When he succeeds, it is due to technical skill and positioning, not enough to make him effective protecting the edge.

Whitehair can be a bit too passive at times as a pass protector. He doesn’t get to his landmarks quickly enough, and he has a habit of catching pass rushers rather than attacking them. It’s very easy to run around him, and he can’t force defenders further outside once they do so. But if he can cut them off, he has solid footwork and short area quickness, allowing him to stay in front of the defender and mirror any attempted counter moves.

As a run blocker Whitehair is effective but unspectacular. He doesn’t push people out of the way, but he gets where he needs to go, and he gets his hips turned to seal the play off. His hands aren’t particularly strong, and he needs to keep his feet constantly moving in order to keep the defender from disrupting the play. At times he can get moved backwards, causing problems in the backfield before the runner can get past him.

Whitehair will be a solid guard in the NFL, but he won’t be anything special. A reliable starter, he’s probably better off going somewhere in the second round. He can be trusted to hold his own, but he likely won’t develop into more than he already is.

Germain Ifedi, Texas A&M
For potentially the fourth straight year Texas A&M could have a tackle selected in the first round, and for the second straight year I do not understand the hype. Last year the Bengals used a first round pick on Cedric Ogbuehi, an athletic tackle with excellent feet and useless arms. This year the player everyone is talking about it Ifedi, a prospect with the exact opposite strengths and weaknesses.

For the first second of a play, things go pretty well for Ifedi. He gets a quick start off the ball and gets deep into his pass set, cutting off the corner for the pass rusher. He couples this with a powerful punch and strong hands, latching onto the rusher while his weight anchors beneath him. At 324 pounds he is the heaviest of the linemen I looked at, and he uses that weight to keep himself from being pushed backwards.

Ifedi’s problems show up after the initial rush. His initial burst is fantastic, but after that he is sluggish and awkward, incapable of mirroring the defender in front of him. He can be beaten badly by inside moves, and even when he latches on he struggles to stay ahead, letting defenders tug his arms outside his frame and exposing himself to holding penalties. The problems with his feet are apparent in the running game as well, where he doesn’t seal defenders off from the hole and is absolutely useless trying to block in space on the second level.

Ifedi’s problems appear to be more physical than technical, which makes them a bigger problem going forward. He looks like he might be carrying a few extra pounds on his frame, and losing some weight could give him a little more quickness to work with. But even then there are problems that need to be corrected. Down the road he could turn into something, but for now Ifedi is a player who will surrender a lot of hits and draw a lot of penalties. I wouldn’t dream of taking him in the first round, and I’d let quite a bit of the second round tick away before I would consider pulling the trigger.

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