Well, that was interesting. The
first round of the NFL draft went in a lot of ways I did not expect, both the
stuff happening on the stage and the various dramas happening off of it. Below
I’ve laid out my initial thoughts on each and every selection, based on what I
know about these players and the teams that selected them. Of the 31 players
selected, 24 were included in my pre-draft write-ups. I’ll try to get the other
seven broken down to some extent by tomorrow evening, along with some more in
depth thoughts about how the first round shook out.
If you want deeper info on any of
the prospects, here are my position by position breakdowns from the past couple
months.
1. Los Angeles Rams (from Titans) – Jared Goff,
QB, California
We’ve known for weeks that this
was going to happen, so I won’t have much to say about it. Goff is the best
quarterback in the draft, and he could be the star that finally gets the Rams
over the hump. There are genuine questions about his upside, and he’ll need to
iron out his inconsistencies before he can truly excel. For these reasons I
wouldn’t have taken him this high, but the scarcity of NFL caliber quarterbacks
makes it necessary for teams to take risks like this.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (from Browns) –
Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
Everything I said about Goff goes
for Wentz as well, just to a greater degree. Wentz has higher upside and higher
risk, and he is even more of a reach at this position. The package Philadelphia
gave up to move to this spot was costlier than Los Angeles’s, and they were
working with less to begin with. Regardless of what happens with Wentz, I
wouldn’t say the future is particularly bright in Philadelphia, and this is
among the worst possible situations for Wentz to land in.
3. San Diego Chargers – Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio
State
This was the first pick with any
uncertainty, and it came as a bit of a surprise. In the final few days I heard
three or four different players linked to the Chargers, but the first mention I
heard of Bosa was only a couple minutes before the selection. Personally I love
the pick. Bosa is a remarkably polished player, with great athleticism to go
along with elite hand usage. He doesn’t necessarily fit San Diego’s scheme, but
he is good enough that they should be open to changing their scheme to fit him.
4. Dallas Cowboys – Ezekiel Elliott, RB,
Ohio State
I thought for sure this would be
Jalen Ramsey. I’m still not sure why it isn’t. I don’t have a problem with
Elliott going this high, but I do have a problem with him going ahead of Ramsey.
Even after selecting Byron Jones last year the Cowboys desperately need help in
their secondary. Elliott will certainly help their offense, both carrying the
ball and protecting the passer. But the offense wasn’t the problem in Dallas,
and they could easily have grabbed a running back like Paul Perkins or Alex
Collins in the third or fourth round to fill that role.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jalen Ramsey,
CB/S, Florida State
I think I may be falling in love
with the Jaguars. They have one of the most exciting young offenses in the NFL,
and with Dante Fowler coming back from a torn ACL they will be adding the best
defensive player from each of the past two draft classes. Ramsey can play
safety as well as cornerback, but I would keep him on the outside, lining him
up over the best opposing receiver and letting him track them in one on one.
The Jaguars now have exciting young talent on every level of their defense, and
if Blake Bortles can come along this is a team that can compete for the
playoffs in the next couple of years.
6. Baltimore Ravens – Ronnie Stanley, OT,
Notre Dame
I’m not sure whether or not to be
surprised that Stanley was the first lineman off the board. There had been some
rumors to this in recent days, and Stanley has been considered a top ten
prospect since the process began. I don’t know if the video posted on Tunsil’s
twitter only minutes before the draft had any effect, but it certainly had to
make the decision easier for the Ravens. I’m not a huge fan of Stanley, but the
Ravens are a good place to develop, and he has good upside down the road.
7. San Francisco 49ers – DeForest Buckner,
DE/DT, Oregon
Laugh all you want about Chip
Kelly grabbing another Oregon player, but this is a very good pick. Partnering
Buckner with his former college teammate Arik Armstead will give the 49ers a
pair of mammoth defensive ends to control the front. Buckner is even better
than the player the 49ers spent the fifteenth pick on last year, combining the
ability to eat up blockers with flashes of disruptive play in the backfield.
8. Tennessee Titans (from Dolphins via
Eagles and Browns) – Jack Conklin, OT/OG, Michigan State
This pick certainly moved around
a lot, and it ended with another team passing up Tunsil for an inferior
lineman. There is an argument that can be made for Stanley being worth a top
ten pick, but the same can’t be said about Conklin. Conklin cannot play tackle
at the NFL level, and he isn’t a sure enough prospect at guard to be worth this
selection. He’s a lesser version of Brandon Scherff, who the Redskins drafted
too high at number five last year.
9. Chicago Bears (from Buccaneers) – Leonard
Floyd, DE/OLB, Georgia
I’m not sure what spurred the
rise of Floyd throughout this process. He’s a decent athlete who plays well in
space, but he’s built like a wide receiver, and he has a lot of work to do
before he can become a truly elite pass rusher. There are much better options
out there, and it doesn’t seem worth moving up two spots when they could have
just settled for a comparable talent like Shaq Lawson or Noah Spence where they
were at.
10. New York Giants – Eli Apple, CB, Ohio
State
And for the third straight year,
I really do not like the pick the Giants made. Apples has tremendous upside,
and he could turn out to be a top caliber cornerback. But man, it’s hard to see
him going off the board with Vernon Hargreaves and William Jackson still out there.
Apple has good size and great speed, but he needs to get better at actually
covering wide receivers. He can push people around, and he is smooth with his
hips, but there is a lot of risk involved with this selection.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Bears) –
Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida
This makes a little more sense.
Hargreaves is the best cornerback left on the board, and Tampa Bay is
desperately in need of talent on the back end. Hargreaves’s size probably cost
him several spots in this draft, but as a pure cornerback he is as good as
anyone in this draft. He can play in multiple schemes and can slide into the
slot if necessary. The only worry comes against bigger receivers, but he is
good enough playing the ball that that it shouldn’t be a devastating flaw.
12. New Orleans Saints – Sheldon Rankins,
DT, Louisville
This was a pick that just about
everyone saw coming. Rankins will add a dynamic pass rushing weapon to New
Orleans’s front, taking some of the pressure off their porous back end. Rankins
will struggle against the run until he can put on some more weight, but he can
make up for it with penetration. This is a bit too high for him, and it won’t
be enough to make the Saints competitive in Drew Brees’s final years, but I can’t
ever find fault with them adding defensive talent.
13. Miami Dolphins (from Eagles) – Laremy Tunsil,
OT, Ole Miss
The slide finally ends for
Tunsil, and the Dolphins get one of the best players in the class. Whatever is
going on with Tunsil off the field, there is no denying his skill on it. The
Dolphins don’t have an immediate need at tackle, but the long run benefits of
this selection are worth sacrificing initial need. Branden Albert will move on
in a couple years, and by then Tunsil will be ready to slide in as a lock down
left tackle.
14. Oakland Raiders – Karl Joseph, S, West
Virginia
I did not expect Joseph to go
this high. He’s been climbing in the draft as he has recovered from his torn
ACL, but I never saw him going in the top twenty. Even healthy I’m not sure he’s
worth this pick. He hits hard, and he plays in coverage well, but his upside
doesn’t blow me away. He’ll be a good safety, but I’m not sure if he’s the sort
of difference maker on the back end that Oakland’s defense needs.
15. Cleveland Browns (from Rams via Titans)
– Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
The position of this selection
didn’t surprise me, but the player certainly did. There is a lot to like about
Coleman, and a lot to be worried about also. He is incredibly fast, but he is
also undersized. He’s lethal with the ball in his hands, but he is as
unpolished as a wide receiver can get. He struggles with drops, he only knows
how to run two or three routes, and it will be a major adjustment to make it
into an NFL offense. This could be the pick that turns the Browns around, or it
could be another bust added to the list, and there really isn’t much middle
ground.
16. Detroit Lions – Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio
State
This pick makes a lot of sense.
The Lions added a guard in the first round last year, but they need more help
than that on their line. Decker needs to add some strength before he’s NFL
ready, but a year or two down the road he can slide into Riley Reiff’s position
at left tackle. He has the length and quickness that NFL teams look for in a
tackle, and his upside is as high as any of the linemen selected ahead of him.
17. Atlanta Falcons – Keanu Neal, S,
Florida
I didn’t break Neal down among my
prospects, but I did watch one game from him, and what I saw cannot justify
this selection. Neal is big, and he hits hard, but he isn’t fast enough to play
safety in the NFL, and I’m not convinced he’s good enough to be an every down
linebacker. I’ll watch some more film and have more to say about him tomorrow,
but right now I can’t say I love this pick, especially when better players and
athletes like Darron Lee and Su’a Cravens were available at the same position.
18. Indianapolis Colts – Ryan Kelly, C,
Alabama
Another player I’ll have to get
back to you on. Everyone has fallen in love with Kelly over the past few weeks,
and he certainly fits a need for the Colts. He gives them the flexibility to
play either guard or center, and he’ll help stabilize their offense in both the
run and the passing game.
19. Buffalo Bills – Shaq Lawson, DE/LB, Clemson
The Bills found a replacement for
Mario Williams, grabbing a high upside player with good value. I’m not as high
on Lawson as many people are, but I don’t fault them for falling in love with
his combination of power and speed. He’s the sort of versatile player who could
thrive in Rex Ryan’s defense, and Bills fans should just be happy that they
didn’t make a mistake and leap for a quarterback like many expected.
20. New York Jets – Darron Lee, LB, Ohio
State
Are the Jets aware that they have
an offense? I know that drafting Mark Sanchez can cause some trauma, but they
haven’t spent a single first round selection on an offensive player since. And
while they need a linebacker, I’m not a huge fan of Lee at this spot. He is
extremely athletic, but he isn’t very physical, and his speed doesn’t translate
to skill in pass coverage. Todd Bowles is a very good coach, and he could be
the best thing to happen to Lee. But there is a lot of downside here that
worries me for a team with glaring holes elsewhere on their roster.
21. Houston Texans (from Redskins) – Will Fuller,
WR, Notre Dame
Why did the Texans trade up for
this pick? Was there really that much competition for Fuller? Fuller is
certainly fast, and he’s also…I’m not sure. I’ll watch more film on him for
tomorrow, but it’s hard to justify a one trick pony with drop issues when the
three best receivers are still available.
22. Washington Redskins (from Texans) – Josh
Doctson, WR, TCU
Finally a team made a smart move
going after a receiver. I had Doctson second on my receiver rankings, but it
was very close with Laquon Treadwell. Doctson is an incredible leaper with great
hands and pretty good route running skills. He won’t have to be an immediate
contributor with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on this team, and he can play
as a red zone threat for the first year or two as he becomes comfortable in an
NFL offense.
23. Minnesota Vikings – Laquon Treadwell,
WR, Ole Miss
As this pick was being announced,
I wasn’t sure who I was pulling for. Treadwell was my top receiver, and I’m
salivating imagining what his big target can be for Teddy Bridgewater. At the
same time, I do kind of regret passing on Myles Jack. If it wasn’t for the
injury concerns Jack would be the top player in the draft, and the thought of
partnering him with his former teammates Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks was
extremely tempting. If you had told me before the draft that the Vikings would
get Treadwell, I would have been thrilled. But that was before I thought Jack
would be available, so this is at best a bittersweet victory.
24. Cincinnati Bengals – William Jackson,
CB, Houston
The Bengals have to be feeling
sick seeing two big receivers go off the board right ahead of them, but they
made a good pickup grabbing the best cornerback available. Jackson has
excellent size and excellent speed, but his ball skills are even more
impressive. He tracks the ball phenomenally in the air, and he is going to
produce a lot of interceptions in the NFL. He needs to get more disciplined,
and he isn’t the best fit for Cincinnati, but with their top targets off the board,
they did a good job getting the best player available.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers – Artie Burns, CB,
Miami
I don’t know anything about
Burns. He’s a cornerback who has been rising recently, but I haven’t watched a
single snap from him. I’ll have more tomorrow.
26. Denver Broncos (from Seahawks) – Paxton
Lynch, QB, Memphis
There were a lot of teams looking
to trade up for a quarterback, and I understand the Broncos going ahead of them
if they thought Lynch was their guy. But man, why in the world would they think
Lynch is their guy? He’s big, he moves well, and he has a strong arm, but he
also has questionable mechanics, poor accuracy, and shaky decision making. I
knew he was going to go in the first round, and I knew I was going to hate it,
but this is a case where I think Mark Sanchez is clearly a better option, both
in the immediate future and in the long term.
27. Green Bay Packers – Kenny Clark, DT,
UCLA
I haven’t watched Clark yet, so I
can’t say too much about him. But it seems strange that Green Bay would go this
way when so many of the top defensive tackles are available. If you want a big
space eater, go for Andrew Billings. If you want a lightning penetrator, go for
Robert Nkemdiche. If you want a freak athlete with versatile upside, go for A’Shawn
Robinson. Clark was a player no one was discussing in the first round, and even
though Green Bay found success with a reach for Damarius Randall last year, I
don’t see any reason to justify this move.
28. San Francisco 49ers (from Chiefs) –
Joshua Garnett, OG, Stanford
When San Francisco moved up I
thought they were going for a quarterback, and I was pleasantly surprised when
they grabbed Garnett instead. Chip Kelly’s biggest error in Philadelphia was
gutting the interior of their line, and there was reason to be worried he was
doing the same in San Francisco after letting Alex Boone walk in free agency.
With Boone gone and Anthony Davis looking unlikely to return, San Francisco
desperately needs to rebuild their offensive line, which was a strength only a
couple years ago and now looks almost completely devoid of talent.
29. Arizona Cardinals – Robert Nkemdiche,
DE/DT, Ole Miss
This is the same pick I made for
the Cardinals in my “what I would do” mock draft, and it makes a lot of sense
for the reasons I laid out there. Nkemdiche is phenomenally talented, but he is
unreliable both on and off the field. Arizona is set up perfectly to guide him
through both levels of his issues, with Tyrann Mathieu to counsel him off the
field and Calais Campbell to show him the way on it. I’m still not sold on
Nkemdiche, but if he’s going to make the most of himself, it will happen in Arizona.
30. Carolina Panthers – Vernon Butler, DT,
Louisiana Tech
Carolina really doesn’t give a
shit what their team needs. Last year they took Shaq Thompson despite already
having Luke Keuchly and Thomas Davis as versatile cover linebackers. This year
they took Butler, a defensive tackle who will immediately be buried behind
Kawaan Short and Star Lotulelei. Butler could be a good player (again, I’ll
have more on him tomorrow), but it’s hard to justify spending a first round
selection on someone to back up a pair of talented young players.
31. Seattle Seahawks (from Broncos) –
Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
Seattle used a first round pick
for the first time since 2012, but it might have been better if they’d just
traded it back again. They desperately need help on the offensive line, but
Ifedi isn’t the place to get it. He’s big, and he has a good first step, but
his footwork is a nightmare after that. He looks slow and out of shape with
every move he makes on the field, and NFL pass rushers will have no trouble
dancing around him in space. Even moving to guard could be difficult for him,
but with the thinness across Seattle’s front, he’s going to be thrown into the
fire right from the start.
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