The Patriots are the class of
this division, winning it 12 of the past 13 years. And once again they are the
clear favorites, though the suspension of Tom Brady leaves a crack of hope open
for the other teams. Each of the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills have the potential
to put together a very good season, and to press the Patriots for the first
time in eight years.
New England Patriots
Half
Full:
The best case scenario for the
Patriots is the same every season. With a historically great quarterback-coach
combination, they have the ability to win the Super Bowl every single year. And
even though they will be without Tom Brady for the first four weeks, he’ll be
back early enough to smooth out any bumps along the road, and he’ll be there
for a playoff run.
After a couple lean years, the
margins of this roster have been restocked with talent. On offense they have
Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman to provide weapons in the passing game. On
defense they have Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins roaming the middle of the
field. And on the sideline they have Bill Belichick, arguably the greatest
coach in the history of the NFL. The Patriots will be just fine, no matter who
gets suspended or who gets injured.
Half
Empty:
The margins in the NFL are
incredibly thin, and we shouldn’t just idly dismiss the absence of Brady. The
Patriots looked to be the favorites in the AFC for most of 2015, before a late
season slide cost them home field advantage. It’s impossible to say that they
would have beaten the Broncos if the game had been played in Foxborough, but
home field certainly matters in the NFL, and a couple early season losses could
leave them with a hill to climb come playoff time.
There are other concerns with
this roster, of the sort we can’t just idly dismiss by waving our hands and
saying “Belichick”. Their offensive line is already just as beaten up as it was
last year, and even though they won’t face many pass rushes like the Broncos,
they certainly showed their vulnerability against effective pressure. And on
defense they lost arguably their best player, trading Chandler Jones in a
somewhat questionable move that robs them of their best pass rusher. The
Patriots are very weak right in the heart of both their defense and their
offense, and it could be enough to cause them to slip up when the playoffs roll
around.
Player
to Watch: Jamie Collins, LB
People are beginning to catch on
to Collins, and by the end of the year he’ll be pretty much a household name.
With Chandler Jones gone he is clearly the best player on New England’s
defense, and he is only going to get better as he continues to develop. An
athletic marvel, he does everything you could ask for from a linebacker. He can
cover receivers in the slot, he can track down running backs from one sideline
to the other, and he can get after the quarterback when he’s sent on a blitz.
Bill Belichick is a genius as a
head coach, but before that he was a genius as a defensive coordinator. He is
one of the most innovative minds in the league today, and no one knows how to
use a player like Collins quite like Belichick can. His role will only expand
as he continues to adjust to the NFL game, and it will be incredible to watch
him utilized to his full potential. Very often unique athletes like Collins are
stifled by uncreative coaching. In New England we have something extremely
rare, a perfect match of talent and situation.
New York Jets
Half
Full:
The Jets have had a top quality
defense for nearly a decade now, and they may finally have the pieces to put
something dangerous together on offense. Last year they were held back by the
inconsistencies of their quarterback and the lack of the running game, and they
may have found a fix for the latter problem by signing Matt Forte. If he can
stay healthy, Forte can contribute in every facet of the game, and he will be a
major upgrade over the Chris Ivory/Bilal Powell combination last year.
When you think of the Jets you
don’t think of wide receivers, but in 2015 only the Steelers and the Broncos
got more receiving yards from their top two wideouts. Brandon Marshall had one
of the quietest 1500 yard seasons I have ever seen, and even at his age he has
the ability to put up numbers close to that again. This team will score points,
and they can count on their defense to be as competitive as ever to give them a
chance to make the playoffs and possibly even push the Patriots for the
division.
Half
Empty:
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a problem. We
can try to pretend this isn’t the case. We can look at his 2015 season, an
outlier as the best season of his career at age 33. We can celebrate that he
resigned with them, when no other team had any interest. We can focus on the
good plays he made last year, ignoring the three interceptions he threw in the
final week with a playoff berth on the line.
Fitzpatrick is a bad quarterback,
and we know that by now. His presence draws a very clearly defined ceiling for
the Jets, one that will keep them from truly competing no matter how well their
receivers or their defense plays. They won ten games last year and nearly made
the playoffs, but that likely represents a best case scenario for them once
again.
Player
to Watch: Eric Decker, WR
Decker has kind of a weird
reputation around the league. Following his breakout 2012 and 2013 seasons with
Peyton Manning, most people assumed he would be overpaid in free agency. That
assumption was so strong that, even when he received a very reasonable 5 year
$36 million deal, people still seemed to think of him as someone who wasn’t
worth what he was getting. And so he has this reputation as an underachiever,
despite putting up solid production in both seasons with the Jets and proving
to be what we know he’s been all along: a very high quality number two
receiver.
Decker did a great deal of his
damage last year out of the slot, and it’s a role he’ll likely be filling again
this year. With Brandon Marshall manning one wing and 2015 second round pick
Devin Smith hopefully able to get healthy on the other, the Jets will need a
player like Decker to control the middle of the field. A big bodied slot
receiver is becoming a trend across the league, and Decker’s 6-3 frame fits
that mold perfectly, someone who can win in tight spaces and keep an offense on
schedule.
Miami Dolphins
Half
Full:
Is it still possible to have
faith in Ryan Tannehill? Last season was ugly, and it seems like everyone wrote
him off, even after he made noticeable strides during the 2014 season. His
numbers in 2015 weren’t actually all that different from the year before, with
a higher touchdown percentage and lower interception percentage than his career
averages. The only category in which he notably fell off was completion
percentage, and that was a product of targeting receivers further down the
field, as his yards per attempt actually went up.
Take a look at the roster around
him, and you’ll see the most talented team he’s had since coming to Miami. The
running back depth chart is uninspiring (though I do like Jay Ajayi as a
possible breakout if/when Arian Foster goes down), but they finally have a true
number one at receiver in DeVante Parker. Parker struggled through much of his
rookie season with injuries, but over his final six games he had 22 receptions
for 446 yards and three touchdowns. He will bring a new element to this
offense, opening things up for Jarvis Landry underneath and giving Tannehill a
true shot at succes
Half
Empty:
Live by the quarterback, die by
the quarterback. While there are plenty of new things to like on Miami’s
roster—the additions of Laremy Tunsil, Byron Maxwell, and Kiko Alonso are all
high upside moves—their only real chance of improving over last year’s
performance is a significant step forward from Tannehill. And at this point, we
may just have to accept that he’s not capable of making that step.
If Tannehill fails, the whole
thing will go down in flames. Teams don’t have to worry about their running
game, so they will blitz the hell out of a struggling quarterback. Miami’s
defensive ends are a combined 65 years old, and their secondary will be torn to
pieces if they can’t get to the opposing passer. Miami’s upside is a fringe
playoff contender, and their downside is a top five pick, probably to get a
quarterback after they cast Tannehill aside.
Player
to Watch: Reshad Jones, S
Jones is a throwback. In a league
that is moving more and more towards the pass, defenses are adjusting just as
quickly as the offenses. The safety position has undergone a sharp transition
over the past ten years, as the traditional roles of strong and free safety
have merged into something more ambiguous. No longer do teams look for a player
who can be dominant against the run or dominant against the pass. Modern
safeties need to be able to excel in both aspects of the game, and to be
interchangeable in increasingly complicated schemes.
It is nice though to see a player
like Jones, who succeeds despite lacking this balance. He isn’t necessarily bad
against the pass—though his five interceptions last year greatly oversell his
abilities—but his real contribution is in the running game. He plays downhill,
and he comes with violence on every play. Tackles are a mostly useless
statistic, but it still says something that he finished in the top five in the
league last year, when only two other safeties were in the top twenty. Jones is
a fun piece for this defense, and even though he isn’t as valuable as some
would believe, he’s someone it’s always worth keeping your eye on.
Buffalo Bills
Half
Full:
Buffalo surprised no one more
than me by actually being a competent football team last season, and they did
it in the most unexpected way possible. Coming into the season they looked like
a team with a miserable offense and a defense that was bound to regress, and
half of that came to pass. The defense was certainly not up to their normal
standards in 2015, but their offense took a massive step forward, powered by
the emergence of Tyrod Taylor to carry the team within two games of the
playoffs.
Their hope for this year has to
be that the regression of the defense was a fluke, while the sudden outburst of
the offense was a true reflection of the talent. And they certainly do have
talent on that side of the ball, with elite skill players like Sammy Watkins
and LeSean McCoy to go along with solid linemen like Cordy Glenn and Richie
Incognito. If Watkins can stay healthy, they can potentially even become better
on offense, while the defense rebounds to a more respectable level to push them
into the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Half
Empty:
I’m still not sold on Tyrod
Taylor. He certainly had a hell of a season last year, carving defenses up with
both his legs and his arm to the tune of more than 3500 total yards in 14
games. Taylor wasn’t just everything the Bills could have hoped for. He was
far, far more.
And even with all that said, it
was still not enough to get them to the playoffs. If Taylor continues to grow
(a possibility, as he is only 27 years old), they could take another step
forward on offense, but even slight regression could lead to catastrophe. A few
more interceptions, perhaps a nagging injury from his aggressive style, and the
fortunes of the Bills could turn into something really ugly. Their defense is
falling to pieces, and a few bright sparks on offense won’t be enough to carry
this team to more than four or five victories.
Player
to Watch: Sammy Watkins, WR
I usually try to focus on a
player that most casual fans probably aren’t familiar with. But in this case,
I’m going to say screw it. I want to write about Watkins, so I’m going to write
about Watkins.
The Bills gave up an incredible
haul to slide up to number four to grab Watkins in 2014, and right now most
people would probably agree that was a mistake. I’m not going to disagree with
that—two first round picks is a lot to give up for anyone—but I think some of
the criticism has been overblown. Injuries have meant that over his first two
years Watkins has been outproduced by draftmates Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, and
arguably even Allen Robinson (Watkins has 80 more yards, Robinson has one extra
touchdown). But if Watkins can stay healthy, I still believe he will emerge as
the best receiver from that class.
Watkins has everything you could
want from an NFL receiver. He has the speed to burn defenders down the field,
and the quickness to separate underneath. Watching him catch a football is
something special, the way he snatches the ball out of the air as soon as it’s
within reach. When he finally got healthy in 2015 he finished the year with 49
catches for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns over his final nine games. He will be even
better this year, and by the end of the season we could be talking about him as
a top five receiver in the league.
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