The AFC North might be the most
fun division in the league. The superstar offensive talent across these rosters
(except in Baltimore) is unmatched elsewhere in the league, and there is an
extremely wide range of possibilities for almost every team in this division.
They could conceivably send three teams to the playoffs, or they could just
send one. In either case, these four teams will run and gun their way through
the regular season, giving us a hell of a show however it ends up working out.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Half
Full:
Pittsburgh’s offense could
be one of the best the league has ever seen. Even without Martavis Bryant, even
with Le’Veon Bell missing the first three weeks, this offense is going to put
up a lot of points. Ben Roethlisberger has somehow gotten even better over the
past three seasons, and Antonio Brown is the unquestioned best receiver in the
league. Last year Mike Munchak worked wonders with this offensive line, and
they’ll be bolstered by the return of perennial Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey.
There is a lot to like about this
offense, and not quite as much with the defense. But they are young, and they
have plenty of players with the potential to grow from last year. Stephon Tuitt
and Ryan Shazier look like developing studs, and Bud Dupree can bounce back
from a disappointing rookie year. Add some fresh faces in the secondary, and
this defense could very easily work their way up to average, which with this
offense would be enough to make the Steelers the favorites in a weak AFC.
Half
Empty:
The hopes of this team are
resting on two things: defensive development and offensive health. And based on
their track record, it’s hard to count on either. This is the same team that
busted with Jarvis Jones and had to cut Cortez Allen after signing him to a
five year deal. They’re stuck relying on 38 year old James Harrison for pass
rush, and their secondary is utter garbage unless their rookies can contribute
immediately.
On the offensive side of the
ball, the Steelers are facing the same problem they have every year: health. Le’Veon
Bell missed the majority of last season. Ben Roethlisberger has only played a
full 16 games three times in his career. And with Bryant lost to suspension,
they don’t have nearly the depth of weapons that they expected to. If they can
stay reasonably healthy, the Steelers can be historically great on offense. But
based on the past few years, that isn’t something we can count on.
Player
to Watch: Sammie Coates, WR
The loss of Bryant to a year long
suspension definitely hurts the Steelers offense, but it isn’t going to kill
it. Bryant was a dangerous and unique weapon a year ago, but his role makes
this loss slightly easier to bear. Bryant excelled on creating big plays, while
also occasionally killing the offense with terrible mistakes. He isn't the sort of
player that you can build an offense around, but he can elevate a very good
offense to a great one.
His absence will hurt the
Steelers, but they may just have a possible substitute already on their roster.
Like Bryant, Coates is an incredibly gifted natural athlete, blessed with good
size and fantastic speed. And also like Bryant, he understands essentially none
of the nuances of playing receiver and occasionally forgets how to catch a
football. He won’t be as dynamic as Bryant, because there may not be another
receiver in the league who is. But he can add a big play element to this
offense to complement the work Bell and Brown do underneath, salvaging some
piece of what this offense could have been.
Cincinnati Bengals
Half
Full:
The final results may not look
any different, but Cincinnati took a clear step forward in 2015 after four
straight years of consistent but stagnant mild success. They were a better team
in 2015 than in any of the previous years they lost in the first round, and
they probably should have beaten the Steelers in the playoffs.
Their hope for this year is that
things stay exactly as they were a year ago. Andy Dalton’s performance turns out to be
a sign of legitimate growth rather than just an outlier. Their front of Geno
Atkins and Carlos Dunlap continues to tear quarerbacks to pieces. And if they
get young players like Darqueze Dennard or Jeremy Hill to step up, even better.
The AFC is much more wide open than it was a year ago, and just some slightly
better luck could get the Bengals deep into the playoffs.
Half
Empty:
As good as they looked at times
last year, there are reasons to believe that 2015 was just an outlier. Much of
the credit for Dalton’s success went to Hugh Jackson, who is now the head coach
in Cleveland. With a new coordinator at his back, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dalton regress. He won’t be helped by the loss of Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones,
his number two and three wide receivers.
Similarly, their defense could
slip back some from its performance last year. Dunlap was fantastic in 2015,
but it’s always a worrying sign when a player who goes five years without
recording double a single double digit sack season explodes for 13.5. He’s still reasonably
young, so it could be a sign of legitimate growth. But if they can’t get after
the quarterback as effectively, the Bengals will have to put more pressure on
their cornerbacks, a unit that is a fairly balanced unit of unproven youngsters
and aging veterans. There
isn’t a great distance to slide, and the Bengals will likely make the playoffs
no matter what. But after progress a year ago, it would be disappointing to see
them return to their 2014 form.
Player
to Watch: Jake Fisher, OT
The Bengals have a reputation for prioritizing talent over need in the draft, but it was still a surprise when they used their first round pick in 2015 on tackle Cedric Ogbuehi. They already
appeared set at that position, with Andrew Whitworth on one side and Andre
Smith on the other. And it was an even bigger surprise when they followed that up
in the second round by selecting another tackle in Fisher.
Fisher didn’t play much as a
rookie, and Ogbuehi didn’t play at all, but they will need someone to step up
after Smith left in free agency. Injuries to both players have knocked the competition off course, and it remains an open question of which will be starting at tackle
on the right side. But both will see the field plenty this year. The Bengals
used an extra offensive lineman on 12 percent of plays last year, behind only
Washington and Tampa Bay. Both these players will be called on to prop up the
offensive line, and whether the strongest part of the offense can maintain its
success through turnover will go a long way to deciding whether they can repeat their 2015 level of play.
Cleveland Browns
Half
Full:
The Browns could be a lot of fun
this year on offense. The turnover from a year ago will be simply staggering,
with an almost completely new receiving corps and major changes on the
offensive line. They’ve loaded up on exciting weapons this year, filling their
offense with high upside threats that could prove to be as good as any
receiving group in the league. Corey Coleman still has some work to do, but he
has the talent to flash over the course of the season. And Josh Gordon led the
league in receiving only three years ago, and once he returns from his four
game suspension he will be ready to torch secondaries once again.
There are definitely reasons for
concern around Robert Griffin III, but a change of scenery could reignite the
spark of talent that is undoubtedly still present. Hugh Jackson elevated Andy
Dalton’s performance last season, and he could do the same for an even younger
and more talented passer. The best version of the Browns will by a high flying,
aerial assault that will compete in a lot of shootouts and can possibly put
together seven or eight victories to give them momentum heading into 2017.
Half
Empty:
This is still the Browns we’re
talking about, so it’s not too hard to identify a worst case scenario. Certain
organizations are just toxic from the top to the bottom, and no amount of
roster or coaching turnover can change that. And as exciting as some of
Cleveland’s talent is, the margins of this team are still very concerning. They
have next to nothing on the defensive side of the ball, and their offensive
line—the strength of their team for the past ten years—took a serious hit this
offseason with the departures of Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwartz.
This team could get better as the
season goes along, but they could also hit a wall with some early struggles. If
Griffin doesn’t show signs of improvement, if Coleman can’t crack the starting
lineup, if they can’t keep the pocket clean long enough to launch the ball down
the field, this team will be left with next to nothing going for it. The Browns
are set up well with 13 selections already heading into next year’s draft, but
this year they need to show some sign of progress, otherwise this downward
spiral could just continue to sink lower.
Player
to Watch: Terrelle Pryor, WR
Pryor is the answer you should
give to anyone who ever talks about an elite NBA player possibly joining the
NFL (I'm talking to you Jimmy Butler). Football is a really, really complicated game, and pure athleticism is
very rarely enough. Pryor is as good an athlete as any non-LeBron NBA player,
and he has an understanding of the game that came with three years as the
quarterback of a major college program. And still, it’s taken him nearly three
years training to become a wide receiver before even having a chance of contributing
in the NFL.
But if he is ready to contribute,
it could be one hell of a show. Pryor is 6-4 and weighs 230 pounds, and he runs
a 4.4 forty yard dash. He likely still has a lot of work to do as a route
runner, but he is effective enough that the Browns will give him a chance to
begin the season as a starter. His opportunities will wane slightly as Gordon returns to the team and Coleman expands his role in the offense,
but for the first few weeks Pryor has a chance to establish a place for himself
in this offense, and to give the Browns another dynamic weapon to work with.
Baltimore Ravens
Half
Full:
Baltimore has seen a lot of
turnover over the past two years, but they could finally have things stabilized
after a rough 2015. Their running game and their offensive line are still a
work in progress (though first round pick Ronnie Stanley is getting rave
reviews in the preseason), but they look like they might have something good
going at wide receiver. Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman are back from their
injuries, and though Mike Wallace has struggled since leaving Pittsburgh, Joe
Flacco is a better fit for his skills than either Ryan Tannehill or Teddy
Bridgewater.
The Ravens have the potential to
be explosive on offense, and even if their defense is merely average it will be
a step up from last season. This is a well run organization, and they are
better suited to weather bumps along the road than most others in the league.
And while they don’t have the talent to compete for a championship, they might
be able to push for a wild card spot in the playoffs.
Half
Empty:
There are some rosters in this
league that are just fun to read over and picture on the field. This isn’t one
of them. Of their 22 starters there are maybe five or six I’d consider above
average players at their respective positions, and the rest of their team is
filled out with middle of the pack, ordinary players. This team will be
expecting contributions from Lardarius Webb, Ricky Wagner, and Crockett Gilmore.
This roster is a miserable combination of past their prime stars and low upside
starters, and it is very unlikely that they can exceed expectations.
The Baltimore Ravens are old.
Terrell Suggs is 33. Elvis Dumervil is 32. Eric Weddle is 31. Steve Smith is
37. This would have been a fantastic roster five years ago, but every single
one of those players is trending down, and there is very little reason to expect
this team to be better in 2016 than it was in 2015. There is even less reason
to be hopeful for 2017, as this is a team that hasn’t had much success adding
young talent and will continue to age burdened by the onerous contract they
were forced to hand to Flacco.
Player
to Watch: Brandon Williams, DT
There isn’t much to like on
Baltimore’s defense, but what little they have going for them is up the middle.
CJ Mosely and Timmy Jernigan were a nice 1-2 grab in the 2014 draft, but the
real star of this unit is Williams. Standing 6-1 and weighing 335 pounds,
Williams is your traditional space eating run stuffer. He absolutely controls
the middle of the field on first and second down, and at only 27 years old he’s
one of the few pieces with the chance to take another step forward.
Williams is a victim to the same
problems that hold back all nose tackles. He offers next to nothing against the
pass (3.5 sacks in three seasons), and he only played about two thirds of the
defensive snaps last year. But these players can still be valuable on first and
second down, disrupting the flow of the offense and leaving them in difficult
to manage circumstances once third down rolls around.
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