I’ve run through the other seven
divisions, and now I make it to the NFC North. In a way I’m glad I saved this
division for last, because no contest has changed more drastically since I
started writing these up. The injury to Teddy Bridgewater fundamentally
reshapes the course of this division, and it turns one of the most entertaining
races of the year into a formality. The Green Bay Packers are going to win the
NFC North again, and the other three teams are going to struggle through
miserable seasons. Because life sucks, and pain is the only world we know.
Green Bay Packers
Half
Full:
Green Bay struggled mightily on
both sides of the ball last year, yet when the end of the season rolled around
they still very easily could have worked their way to a championship. They were
one spectacular Larry Fitzgerald play away from knocking off the Cardinals to
make it to the NFC Championship, and from there who can say what would have
happened? The Packers were miserable last year by their standards, and they
still were a championship caliber team, which bodes well for the inevitable
positive regression this year.
Everything could come together
for Green Bay in 2016. Jordy Nelson is back, and other than that they’ve seen
no significant changes to their offense. Younger players like Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
and Damarious Randall are ready to take the next step, and their defense will
improve further if they can finally get Clay Matthews back to a full time pass
rushing role. With the Vikings mortally wounded, this division should once
again be theirs for the taking, setting them up to challenge the other top
teams in the NFC.
Half
Empty:
Even in the worst case situation
(not including an injury to Aaron Rodgers), I struggle to see the Packers failing
to win the division. The worst I can say about this team is that they aren’t
overwhelmingly talented across the board, but they have a lot of nice pieces
that prevent their roster from having real holes. With a strong offensive line,
a quality receiving corps, a capable defense, and a superstar quarterback, they
should have no trouble running away with the NFC North.
But winning the division is one
thing, and the Packers have much higher expectations. And based on their
roster, I can’t see them competing with the other top teams in the NFC. Their
defense will continue to be a problem, no matter where they play Matthews and
no matter how promising their young talent in the secondary is. This team is
lopsided in a way their competition in Carolina, Arizona, and Seattle simply is
not, and when push comes to shove they won’t be able to fight through these top
teams.
Player
to Watch: Mike Daniels, DT
Daniels is the best player on
Green Bay’s defense. Better than the aging Julius Peppers. Better than the
emerging Clinton-Dix. Better than Clay Matthews, who was a slightly overrated
outside linebacker before changing positions and becoming an extremely
overrated inside linebacker. Daniels is the heart of this defense, and many
people still don’t have the faintest idea who he is.
Daniels is a disrupter along the
inside. He doesn’t blow past offensive lines like Aaron Donald, and he doesn’t
swallow people whole like Ndamukong Suh. But he is on the next tier of interior
defenders, the group that dominates through consistent battling and technique.
He moves all along the line in Green Bay’s dynamic 3-4 scheme, and he brings it
in both aspects of the game, providing a reliable four or five sacks a year in
addition to stuffing things up against the run. The Packers still lack star
talent on their defense, but they have more going for them than most people
realize.
Minnesota Vikings
Half
Full:
I’ll keep my thoughts on this
brief, since I may have more to say later. The Sam Bradford trade forced me to
rewrite this entire thing, even though I’m not sure it changes that much. Minnesota
was screwed with Shaun Hill at quarterback, and they’re screwed with Bradford
at quarterback. The only difference is now they don’t have a first round pick
to look forward to next year.
At his best, Bradford can play at
the same level that Bridgewater reached last year. That was enough to get the
Vikings to the playoffs, and they could be even better this year with young
players like Anthony Barr, Stefon Diggs, and Xavier Rhodes take the next step. But
any Super Bowl hopes the Vikings had relied on Bridgewater elevating his game
to a new level, a level Bradford simply can’t reach. With Bradford, the Vikings
are probably a playoff team. But they no longer have any hope of winning a
championship.
Half
Empty:
The best case scenario is that
the Vikings establish themselves as a defensive minded, running game oriented,
old fashioned football team. The worst is that the injury to Bridgewater causes
the bottom to drop out beneath them entirely. Even the addition of Bradford
doesn’t gain them that much, as it will take him several weeks to truly get
comfortable in the offense. And that’s not even taking into account that they’re
putting a notoriously injury prone quarterback behind one of the worst
offensive lines in the league.
We’ve seen over the course of
Adrian Peterson’s career just how much a running back can do to carry his team.
One brief stretch of unparalleled brilliance in 2012 was enough to carry them
to the playoffs, but this is not 2012. Peterson is not that sort of
transcendent superstar anymore. Their offensive line, and probably even their
quarterback, are not as good as they were in 2012. This season could turn ugly
in a hurry, and then it could keep getting uglier, as the team and players
realize how utterly helpless they are and let a once promising season turn into
a disaster.
Player
to Watch: Danielle Hunter, DE
The way this team turns mid round
picks into dangerous pass rushers is simply unfair. Over the past seven years
former fourth round picks Ray Edwards, Brian Robison, and Everson Griffen have
combined to give this team 99 sacks. A third round pick in 2015, Hunter looks
like the heir to this tradition, and he will get his chance to truly break out
in 2016 after a promising rookie year.
Hunter was the sort of player
that many people who follow the draft scoff at coming out. He is a freakish
athlete who never really produced at the college level, generating only 4.5
sacks in three years at LSU. Projected as a project, he surprised everyone by
surpassing his entire college total with 6 sacks in his rookie season with the
Vikings, trailing only Preston Smith among all rookies. He is still just a
situational passer for this team, but Mike Zimmer knows how to use situational
passers, and Hunter will continue to have an impact for this defense, possibly
earning himself a starting spot by the end of the season.
Detroit Lions
Half
Full:
Detroit got off to a miserable
start in 2015, but they picked it up as the year went along. After starting out
1-6, they finished the season with six wins in their final nine games. This
turnaround coincided with a change in offensive coordinator, which led to an
explosive performance from Matthew Stafford. Under Jim Bob Cooter’s offense
Stafford completed 69% of his passed for 20 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. They’ll
be returning the same scheme this season, and Stafford will have a chance to
carry this momentum into the 2015 season.
On the defensive side they also
stand to take a step forward this year. The core of their defense is young.
Darius Slay is only 25, and Ziggy Ansah is 27. They will be getting DeAndre
Levy back after missing nearly all of 2015, giving them high quality starters
at every level of their defense. It won’t be an elite unit by any means, but if
they can pull it together, this team can continue its late season momentum and
compete for a playoff spot.
Half
Empty:
Over the course of NFL history,
it has become very clear that late season momentum doesn’t really mean anything
for the next year. More often than not it is evidence of overregression, a team
that is closer to the average of their previous year than their finish to it.
Detroit could very easily be an example of this as well. Stafford looked great
over the second half of the season, but do we have any reason to believe that’s
a better representation of the quarterback he’ll be this year than over the
first six and a half years of his career?
Detroit has seen a massive amount
of talent walk through the door over the past two years. Losing Ndamukong Suh
fundamentally changed the way they have to play defense, and the retirement of
Calvin Johnson will do the same to their offense. Golden Tate is an excellent
number two receiver, but I’m skeptical of how much he can do when defenses are
focused on him. They are going to need some young talent to step up to fill
these holes, and I’m just not sure if I can see where it’s coming from.
Player
to Watch: Ameer Abdullah, RB
One possible source of talent
could come at running back. There was a lot of hype around Abdullah at the
start of last season, but it kind of quieted down after he disappointed with
only 597 yards over the course of his rookie year. While his efficiency numbers
were decent, he didn’t make the sort of dynamic plays everyone was expecting
after he lit up the league in preseason.
Abdullah is uniquely gifted when
playing in space, and now he needs to take a step forward to become a complete
back. Detroit’s running game has been the Achilles heel of its offense for
nearly a decade now, and they no longer have the luxury of letting it fall to
the wayside. They are going to have to run the ball, and they are going to need
someone to carry the load. The best hope on their roster is Abdullah, but he
needs to prove he has what it takes to bear the workload of a feature running
back.
Chicago Bears
Half
Full:
The best the Bears have looked
over the past five years came in 2013. That was the year that saw Alshon
Jeffery break out, in addition to the usual dominance of Brandon Marshall. The
twin towers on offense were a potent force for defenses to deal with, whether
it was Jay Cutler or Josh McCown under center. Marshall is gone, but Jeffery is
back to full strength after an injury plagued 2015, and they will be unveiling
last year’s first round pick Kevin White, a similarly massive and gifted
receiver. With an improved line, Cutler could be in position to have the best
season of his career.
There are still factors that
could hold this Bears team back, which is why even in a best case scenario I
see them struggling to reach the playoffs. They still aren’t particularly deep
at receiver, and they have no clear solution in the running game or on defense.
But they have pieces to like in places all over their roster, and with some
good coaching they can definitely make a run as the season goes along. If they
can get contributions from Cody Whitehair, Eddie Goldman, and other young
players on their roster, they might have something. But I still think their
ceiling is limited to a .500 record.
Half
Empty:
That got pretty negative at the
end, and it’s not going to get better from here. If things break wrong in
Chicago, this is absolutely a team we could be discussing for the first overall
pick in the draft. The best case scenario for them is built on dominance by a
pair of receivers who played a combined nine games last year, and a quarterback
who is notoriously inconsistent.
They no longer have Matt Forte to
relieve the pressure on their offense, and the steps they took to improve their
defense will have a marginal impact at best. Jerrell Freeman and Danny
Trevathan are good players, but they aren’t the sort who will have a massive
impact on a defense desperately short of talent. This team will struggle to
pressure the passer, and they will struggle to protect the passer. They won’t
be able to run the ball, and they’ll have difficulty stopping the run as well.
A favorable schedule could keep things from getting too ugly, but they have no
realistic shot of competing in this division.
Player
to Watch: Ka’Deem Carey
The one constant in Chicago for
the past eight years has been Matt Forte, and now that he’s gone the Bears are
in desperate need of a replacement. The apparent solution is Jeremy Langford,
last year’s fourth round pick out of Michigan State. He appeared some in relief
of Forte last year, picking up 537 yards on 148 carries along with six
touchdowns. While not staggering numbers, they’re decent for a rookie running
back, and the Bears expect him to shoulder a larger load this year.
I’m not convinced. Langford never
impressed me in college, and he didn’t do anything to change my opinion in
limited time last year. And just behind him is another young running back, 2014
fourth rounder Carey. He doesn’t have Langford’s natural size or speed, but
over his first two years he’s been a more productive back, average 4.0 yards
per carry. Langford will get the chance to lock down the role, but there will
be a short leash around his neck, and if things go poorly Carey could take over
the role as the season goes along.
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