Week One Overreactions

The first week of the NFL season is in the books, and now we know everything we need to about the next sixteen weeks. We’ve seen what these teams are good at, and we’ve seen what these teams are bad at, and that isn’t going to change anytime soon.

Obviously I’m being facetious. Every Week One analysis begins by talking about how pointless it is to analyze one game. Over a single week just about anything can happen in the NFL, and every year we jump at something that looks like a broad trend but turns out to be a flash of randomness. This year will be no different, and we really should wait another few weeks before we start talking about these teams.

But where’s the fun in that? Football is back, and it’s a time for celebration, a time for irrationality. So let’s talk about what happened this past weekend. But let’s also be smart about it. We’ve been through Week One before, and the NFL is nothing if not repetitive. So let’s take a trip back to 2015, and see which patterns we can see repeating themselves before our eyes.

This rookie quarterback is a star already!

2016 Example: Carson Wentz

2015 Example: Marcus Mariota

Why it’s ridiculous:

Mariota lit the league on fire in Week One of last year. In his first NFL action he threw only 15 passes, but he didn’t need to throw any more, as he completed 13 of them for 209 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-14 rout over Tampa Bay. Wentz didn’t quite match this, but he had a hell of a debut in his own right, completing 22 of 37 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns. Back to back second overall picks have gotten off to torrid starts, but Wentz’s will prove to be just as unsustainable as Mariota’s. He won’t be going against the Browns every week, and there will be some ugly moments as he continues to transition to the NFL.

Why it might hold up:

Yes, Wentz will have some struggles, especially against better defenses. But there’s no way not to be encouraged by this debut. Mariota had more flash, but to be as effective as Wentz was with so many attempts gives much more reason to believe he’ll keep it up. And even if he doesn’t, it’s not like Mariota was bad down the stretch in 2015. There will be regression, but Wentz is already showing more promise than many expected from the rookie year of a player jumping straight from North Dakota State to starting in the NFL.

Adrian Peterson is done!

2016 Example: 31 yards against the Titans

2015 Example: 31 yards against the 49ers

Why it’s ridiculous:

You have to at least give Peterson credit for consistency. After cracking 100 yards in the season opener each of the first three years of his career, he has failed to reach that mark every time since, and he appears to be getting worse to begin the season with each passing preseason he sits out. But a bad first game hasn’t sunk him yet, and there’s no reason to believe it will do so now. 31 yards against San Francisco last year turned into a league leading 1485 by the end, and by now he’s earned enough benefit of the doubt to hold off calling his career over just yet.

Why it might hold up:

It’s eerie that Peterson ended up with the exact same total in the first game of each of the past two seasons. It’s concerning that he did it on 9 more carries this year than it took him last year. Peterson had arguably the worst game of his career on Sunday, struggling to create yards on the rare occasion his line gave him anything to work with. Tennessee swallowed him whole, and he wasn’t able to do anything to fight it, averaging a measly 0.9 yards after contact. At 31 years old and with a lot of mileage on him, a decline is inevitable, and without a reliable option at quarterback any dropoff could be the death of the Vikings.

This team in contention for the first pick is actually good!

2016 Example: San Francisco 49ers

2015 Example: Tennessee Titans

Why it’s ridiculous:

Over the past two years the greatest margins of victory in each opening weak have gone to teams no one expected to be any good. A year ago it was Tennessee, blitzing the Buccaneers to the tune of a 42-14 victory. This year it was San Francisco, knocking off the Rams by an identical 28 point margin. Of course, we all know what happened to Tennessee. Their opening day win was something they managed to repeat only twice more over the course of the season, and when the dust settled they found themselves sitting with the worst record in the league, just as everyone had expected. The same thing could very easily happen in San Francisco, where their margin of victory does not properly convey just how poorly they played for most of this game. Against better competition they will be exposed, and it wouldn’t be stunning to see them fighting for the top draft pick come the end of the season.

Why it might hold up:

If there is any hope in San Francisco, it exists in the failing faith in Chip Kelly as a football genius. Chris Brown of the Ringer had an excellent piece last week on this subject, taking a look at just how Kelly’s once revolutionary offense became stale and predictable. And even though it didn’t look good on Monday, it at least looked a little different, in a way that offers promise going forward. It’s hard to convince myself that a team of Blaine Gabbert throwing to Torrey Smith and Jeremy Kerley can ever be good, but they at least might not be as terrible as we expected.

This promising team is a disaster!

2016 Example: Buffalo Bills

2015 Example: Minnesota Vikings

Why it’s ridiculous:

I mentioned Adrian Peterson’s 2015 debut above, and now I get to the rest of what the Vikings did. A favorite pick prior to the year to jump into playoff contention, they laid an absolute egg in their first game, managing only 3 points against a 49ers team they were expected to handle easily. Their offense was nonexistent, and many people wrote them off as a product of hype, not ready to make the actual leap. But they were a young team, and they got better as the season progressed, much as the Bills have to hope they can do after managing only 7 points in their loss to the Ravens.

Why it might hold up:

The problems in Buffalo coming into the year looked to be on the defensive side, but there were reasons to be worried about their offense as well. After building an impressive running game through depth at the running back position, they were forced to let go of promising youngster Karlos Williams this offseason. More of the burden in the running game is going to LeSean McCoy, and he struggled on Sunday, gaining only 58 yards on 16 carries. But even more troubling was the performance of Tyrod Taylor. After a stunning breakout year, many people came into 2016 wondering if he can keep it up. And while one game is far from convincing evidence, gaining only 111 yards on 22 passes is a clear dropoff from even his lowest point of last year. And with Sammy Watkins hampered by a lingering foot injury, this team may be forced to play the remainder of the season with their best player at only half strength, leaving even less to work with for a team already walking a razor thin line.

A big comeback gives a team momentum for the rest of the season!

2016 Example: Kansas City Chiefs

2015 Example: San Diego Chargers

Why it’s ridiculous:

Two straight years the Chargers have been on the field for a major come from behind win, first enjoying life as victors, now savoring the agony of defeat. The Chiefs are breathing a sigh of relief after pulling a tough one out over a division rival, and now they’re turning their sights ahead. They can only hope their big victory leads to better things than San Diego’s. After knocking off the Lions in the first week, the Chargers went on to win only three more games, the misery of the rest of the season bearing a lot more in common with the gruesome first half of their Week One performance than the inspiring charge of the second.

Why it might hold up:

Kansas City won a playoff game a year ago, so it might be reasonable to assume that the team that took the field in the second half was a better representation of them than the one at the beginning. If anything this big comeback gives them hope, showing an edge and explosiveness we have never before seen from this offense. This is a good defense, even without Justin Houston tearing quarterbacks apart from the edge, and they will fix whatever issues popped up in the first half. The defense can be counted on, and with signs of growth on the offensive side, this could be the year that Kansas City finally joins the elites of the AFC.

We made a terrible mistake at quarterback!

2016 Example: Case Keenum

2015 Example: Kirk Cousins

Why it’s ridiculous:

A year ago the Redskins made the controversial decision to go with Cousins over former second overall selection Robert Griffin III, and after the first week it looked like they had made a terrible mistake. In a loss to the Dolphins he threw a pair of interceptions and looked every bit like the quarterback he had been to that point in his career. People were calling for his head, just as they’re calling for Keenum’s now. But the Redskins stuck with him, and he paid it off, elevating his game over the second half of the season and carrying his team to a division title.

Why it might hold up:

I’m going to be honest. The paragraph above was hard to justify. Because even though Cousins was bad to open the season last year, he wasn’t anywhere near what Keenum was on Monday night. I suppose we could be charitable and congratulate the Rams for waiting to score their first points as a Los Angeles franchise in front of their own fans, but after what they did this past weekend I think it’s a tossup whether they’ll be able to cross midfield against Seattle. They nearly set the game of football back fifty years, and even if Keenum improves tenfold as a passer from Monday’s performance, he will still not be close to good enough to get this team to the playoffs.

Seattle is in trouble!

2016 Example: 12-10 victory over Miami

2015 Example: 34-31 loss to St Louis

Why it’s ridiculous:

There are a lot of people worried about the Seahawks after a narrow victory over the Dolphins in Week One, but there were even more people worried last year when they lost to the Rams. In a high scoring back and forth contest, the pressure of St Louis’s defensive front was enough to shred Seattle’s offensive line, while some special team trickery gave them what they needed to pull off the upset. The concerns only grew when they lost the following week to Green Bay, then again in their fifth and sixth game. But just as they were last year, the Seahawks are too talented and too well coached to fall to pieces, and at the end of the season we probably won’t even remember that this game was close.

Why it might hold up:

These two season openers were similar close contests against mediocre competition, but looking at the scores will tell you that these were very different games. A year ago Seattle’s issue was defense, the strength of their team and something they were well positioned to fix. It isn’t as clear that that they can repair the holes in their offense. Their line has somehow gotten worse from a year ago, and Russell Wilson barely made it through the game against the Dolphins. And without Marshawn Lynch to feed the ball to, defenses are going to be in all out attack mode, chasing after a quarterback who is suddenly very alone on this offense. Miami’s defense is above average, but they aren’t in the class of teams like Carolina or Arizona, and unless Seattle can find some new weapons on offense they could be in for a lot of low scoring brawls like this one.