2016 NFC West Preview

Seattle Seahawks

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The Seahawks have been consistently one of the best teams in the league over the past five years, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that they’re among the favorites again this year. The core of their defense is still intact, from Michael Bennett along the front to Bobby Wagner in the middle to Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman on the back end. And the margins remained stocked with talent as well, quality players like KJ Wright and Kam Chancellor coached up by one of the best staffs in the league.

Russell Wilson only continues to get better on the offensive side, proving to be far more than the game manager with occasional flash plays he was early in his career. He has combined his athleticism with his intelligence and arm strength to become one of the most dynamic offensive weapons in the league. He makes plays that cover the holes elsewhere on their offense, and he could even take another step forward this year, possibly into MVP consideration.

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Wilson can do a lot, but it might be too much to ask for him to make this offense an elite unit. Years of negligence have chipped away a once solid core into a couple of above average players surrounded by replacement level talent, and now it might be time to feel some real concern for Seattle’s offense. Doug Baldwin is a quality wide receiver, but he is unlikely to repeat the 14 touchdowns he had last year (nearly half his career total). And without Marshawn Lynch, they will have to turn their running game over to Thomas Rawls, who admittedly looked extremely promising in extremely limited time last year.

The defense will still be solid, but they have so much riding on it that even a small slip to merely above average could seriously endanger this team’s expectations. They still don’t have an answer at cornerback opposite Sherman, and they still have to prove that they can cover tight ends. Players like Bruce Irvin and Brandon Mebane may have seemed expendable a couple years ago, but now we’ll get a look at what this defense will be when its depth disappears and it has only the stars to lean on.

Player to Watch: Frank Clark, DE

Seattle used their first round pick this year on offensive tackle Germain Ifedi. Other than him, the only first round selection of theirs on their roster is Earl Thomas. A combination of aggressive trades and poor drafting has left Seattle with very little elite young talent on their roster, and as players continue to trickle out due to retirement and free agency they are going to have to find a way to replace them.

Clark is probably their best hope of a young player developing into a legitimate star. A borderline first round talent, he fell to the end of the second round due to domestic violence allegations. He was reasonably effective in a situational role last year, and with Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril ahead of him he won’t be asked to do much more this year. But if he can throw in six or seven sacks this year, he could step up into a starting role within the next year or two.

Arizona Cardinals

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The NFC Championship game was disappointing, but there is no denying that Arizona was capable of winning a Super Bowl last year. Carson Palmer emerged from an injury shortened 2014 campaign to have the best season of his career. A perfect fit for Bruce Arians’s gunning offense, he combined with a rejuvenated Larry Fitzgerald to give some firepower to a team that had succeeded mostly due to defense before last year.

The performance of the defense was as incredible as ever last year, and they only need to replicate this to put themselves again in contention as one of the best teams in the league. As long as they can stay healthy, the core of Palmer, Tyrann Mathieu, and Patrick Peterson is as good as it gets, bringing a balance of offensive and defensive stars that even Seattle can’t match.

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The section above was extremely positive, but a few words jump out that have to worry any fans. Carson Palmer “emerged”, and Larry Fitzgerald was “rejuvenated”, and they have a top tier core if they can “stay healthy”. These factors all scream regression to the mean. Palmer and Fitzgerald are old, and Mathieu has started less than two thirds of his career games. Everything seemed to work out for them last year, and they can't possibly count on that string of luck again.

Every team is a couple key injuries away from a disaster, but no team approaches this with the kind of history Arizona does. Health is a skill, and very crucial pieces of the Cardinals roster lack this skill. Arians only exacerbates this issue, as he showed in five seasons as the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh during which Ben Roethlisberger started a full sixteen games only once. The Cardinals play a dangerous game. When it goes well, it’s beautiful, but if it fails, they could easily find themselves on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

Player to Watch: David Johnson, RB

Johnson is one of those players that everyone is expecting to break out, to the point that if he simply repeats his production from last year it will be considered a major disappointment. His rookie season saw his role in the offense grow as the year went along, and while his total numbers—581 yards and 8 touchdowns—won’t blow anyone away, his efficiency numbers—4.6 yards per carry and 12.7 yards per reception—have people drooling over the prospect of a bigger role in the offense.

Johnson’s emergence could add an extra dimension to an already lethal offense. Or it could set them up for disappointment. His numbers are skewed somewhat by a small sample of big plays, and if these dry up he could quickly find himself caught in a slog behind a merely average offensive line. The Cardinals have other options if things don’t work out. Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson are still on the team. But right now they’re pinning a lot of their hopes on Johnson, a player who still has to prove he can handle the full workload of an NFL running back.

Los Angeles Rams

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I guess I could give this a go. I mean, they are coached by Jeff Fisher, which mean’s they’re pretty much set for a 7-9 season. I know this, everyone knows this, even Fisher knows this. Best case scenario, they go 8-8. Worst case scenario, they go 6-10. I shouldn’t really have to rationalize beyond that at this point.

But I’ll give it a try. After years expecting to break out, this could finally be the year the Rams break out. Between Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley they have potentially the brightest young defensive and offensive players in the league, and now they’ll be throwing a quarterback selected first overall into the mix. Robert Quinn has had a couple down years, but he could easily return to the 19 sack monster he was in 2013. And while we’re going nuts, Tavon Austin showed signs of life last year, even if signs of life didn’t get him to 500 receiving yards. It could all come together this year, and the Rams could push for a wild card spot.

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So now that I’ve done that, let’s go the opposite direction. Los Angeles has been an average team for a long time, but this could be the year the bottom finally falls out from under them. For the first time they enter a season without any hint of what they’re doing at quarterback, with the miserable journeyman Case Keenum looking like he could hold off rookie Jared Goff for the starting spot. Goff will get in at some point, but there is no way to estimate the damage that Keenum will do until then, or if Goff is even ready to play at an NFL level yet.

They still have stars on the defensive side, but a lack of veteran depth could come back to bite them. This offseason they lost James Laurinaitis, Chris Long, and Janoris Jenkins, forcing them to insert less experienced players into crucial roles. Donald wrecks opposing offensive lines, but he can’t dominate on every play, and this defense could quickly transform into something resembling the underwhelming unit around JJ Watt in Houston.

Player to Watch: Mark Barron, LB

Barron is one of the most fascinating stories of the NFL over the past year. If you recognize that name, it’s probably because you remember him from the 2012 NFL Draft, when he was selected seventh overall by Tampa Bay. For the first couple years of his career he was, along with most of the other players selected in the top ten that year, considered a bust. When he was traded midway through the 2014 season for a fourth and a sixth round pick, most believed that was the slow start of his fade from the league.

But prior to last season, the Rams made the bold move to switch him from safety to linebacker. Traditionally this would have made no sense for a 214 pound player, but as I continue to bring up, the league is a different place now. In the style of division foe Deone Buchanon, Barron became an undersized but athletic linebacker, flying all over the field against the run and the pass. He’s not a star by any means, but he’s a useful player, which is far more than most people thought the Rams would ever get from him.

San Francisco 49ers

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San Francisco’s defense has faded some from the elite unit they were a couple years ago, but they are still well above average, and they could take a small step forward this year. Young players like Aaron Lynch and Eric Reid still have room to grow, and their pair of monster defensive ends Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner have the ability to turn into a nightmare for offensive lines.

Their defense will be somewhere between above average and good, but where the real potential for growth exists in San Francisco is on the offensive side. Last year was a disaster in Philadelphia, but Chip Kelly’s first two seasons shouldn’t be idly dismissed. He turned Nick Foles into a productive passer, and he has much more talent to work with in San Francisco, whether he goes with Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert as his starter. Behind an offensive line that should bounce back, and with a stable of receivers who could be explosive in Kelly’s offense, it’s not out of the question for the 49ers to shock everyone and compete for the playoffs.

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That was the rosiest possible look at San Francisco’s offense. The reality is quite a bit bleaker. They still don’t know what they’re doing at quarterback, and in all likelihood they will bounce back and forth a couple times early in the season before they get it figured out. Kaepernick has made no forward progress in his career, and he’s a bad fit for Kelly’s scheme. Gabbert is just a bad player, combining wretched accuracy with utter panic in the face of pressure.

San Francisco is going to struggle to throw the ball, and I haven’t seen enough from Carlos Hyde in his first two years in the league to convince me that he can carry an offense on his own. And there is very little margin for error in this division. A bad start to the season could quickly get out of hand, and while I doubt they’d make another coaching change, there are other parts of the organization that could come crashing down and force them to reset once again in 2017.

Player to Watch: Anthony Davis, OT

Davis is one of the most intriguing cases in recent NFL history. A year and a half ago he announced that he was done with football, joining teammates Justin Smith and Patrick Willis in retirement. But almost immediately he backtracked from this, leaving the door open for a possible return. And sure enough, after a year away from football he filed for reinstatement, and after some hesitance the 49ers decided to welcome him back.

The question remains open about how much value he will bring to this 49ers team. He hasn’t played football in more than a year, and even his final season was cut short by injury. The raw talent makes him a favorite to start at right tackle, but the new coaching staff will undoubtedly have questions about whether they can trust him, in addition to concerns about how much of his football skills remain.