NFC Playoff Preview

It's the most wonderful time of the year. The stress of the holidays is behind us, and we can enjoy the one true celebration of winter: the NFL playoffs. We've seen all these teams for sixteen games, and we have a good idea of what to expect in the playoffs. I'll start today with the NFC, giving a brief summary of each team's strengths and weaknesses before identifying the team they most want to see and one they would probably rather avoid. Of course, because this is a single elimination tournament there is a great deal of randomness involved. This is what we should see, but don't be surprised if I am proven wrong by some of these teams.

Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Everyone knows what we’re getting with the Seahawks. Their pass defense is one of the best of all time. Their size and depth at cornerback allows them to play press man across the board. Earl Thomas, probably the best safety in the league, can cover an incredible amount of ground up top in the rare event that their corners are beaten. With the additions of Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril in free agency they have so much depth in their pass rush that they rarely bother to rush Bruce Irvin, who had eight sacks last season in his rookie year. If you are going to score points on this team, you are going to have to do so running the football, ideally straight at them. They have the athleticism to run down quicker backs trying to reach the edge.

Their offense is inconsistent, but when it’s on they are the best team in the league. It appears that Percy Harvin is finally going to return, and if he’s even close to full health he gives them a weapon like they haven’t had all season. Their offensive line is above average, and Marshawn Lynch is one of the ten best running backs in the league. He’s had his struggles lately, but he is still a beast to try to tackle. This offense can be contained, but when they're clicking they are nearly impossible to beat.

Favorable Matchup: New Orleans Saints

We all remember what happened in the Sunday Night matchup between these teams. The Seahawks dominated in every facet of the game on their way to a 34-7 victory. Much was made of the home field advantage for Seattle, but even on a neutral field these teams do not match up particularly well. Drew Brees thrives by getting the ball out of his hand quickly in the face of a pass rush, but Seattle’s tight coverage and versatile pass rush make identification and conversion of hot routes difficult. With players like Kam Chancellor the Seahawks are one of the few teams capable of handling the Saints’ massive wide receiver Jimmy Graham. They likely won’t be able to hold the Saints to single digits again, but they should slow the offense enough that their offense can put up more points if it comes to a shootout.

Unfavorable Matchup: Carolina Panthers

The NFC team most likely to knock off the Seahawks is the team most likely to face them in the NFC Championship game. The Panthers have the sort of downhill rushing game that can wear its way through Seattle’s defense, and they have a quarterback in Cam Newton who will minimize the damage done by the pass rush. But where Carolina really matches up well against the Seahawks is on the defensive side of the ball. Luke Kuechly has received well deserved praise this year, but the strength of the Panthers' defense is their front four. The rookie defensive tackle combination of Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei will stuff up Lynch in the middle and cut down on Wilson’s opportunities to escape the pocket by stepping up. Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy will rush hard off the edge and create pressure to disrupt Wilson. The weakness of the Panthers’ defense is in their secondary, but Seattle doesn’t have the wide receivers to exploit this advantage.

Carolina Panthers (12-4)

My how things change. I remember earlier this year, when the Panthers came to play the Vikings, this team was sitting at 1-3 and looking at another lost season. Ron Rivera was a dead man walking, and there were even calls to bench Cam Newton. Since then they have lost only a single game on their way to an NFC South title. Ron Rivera has developed his young players into one of the three best defenses in the NFL, and they’ve put together an effective offense behind a rejuvenated line. Their best player is the aforementioned Kuechly, a linebacker who flies all over the field and seems to get in on every tackle. But don’t ignore Thomas Davis either, one of the best pass defending linebackers in the league.

The success of their offense will hinge on the potential return of Steve Smith, their only quality wide receiver. Without him, it’s hard to see them having any semblance of a competent passing game. Their defense can be exploited through the passing game, provided the opposition can contain their defensive front. Their secondary has been surprisingly effective this season, but it has been greatly helped by the pass rush of their front four. If a team can protect their quarterback, this secondary can be beaten.

Favorable Matchup: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has one of the worst run defenses in football, and they are missing one of their best run defenders in Clay Matthews. Carolina can exploit them by running the ball straight ahead or can confuse them by running the same read option schemes the 49ers used so effectively in last year’s playoffs. If the Packers sell out against the run they might be able to contain the Panthers’ offense, but their questionable safety play leaves them vulnerable to one of the strongest armed quarterbacks in the league. On the other side of the ball, the athleticism the in the Panthers’ linebacker corps will neutralize Green Bay’s passing game, forcing Aaron Rodgers to hold the ball. Green Bay’s offensive line has improved from past seasons, but they still won’t be able to handle Carolina’s intimidating pass rush.

Unfavorable Matchup: San Francisco 49ers

Earlier this season the 49ers and Panthers played one of the most fun and physical games of the year. The Panthers ended up winning 10-9 thanks to the worst game of Colin Kaepernick’s career. He played that game without Michael Crabtree and lost Vernon Davis to a concussion early on. With those weapons back he’ll be in better position to attack the Panthers’ pass defense, and the offense will be able to put up more than nine points. Carolina won’t manage similar improvement. The 49ers aren’t afraid of their passing game, and they will stack the box to stop the Panthers from running. With Aldon Smith back in their lineup they will be able to pressure Cam Newton, and because of their athleticism at linebacker they don’t have to be concerned with him as a running threat. The game will still be low scoring, but the 49ers will win by virtue of a more balanced offense.

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

The Eagles came on during the second half of the season due to a sudden improvement in their defense and a slight shift in scheme to accommodate their change at quarterback. With Michael Vick at the helm they ran a system of read options that has become familiar to most football fans, with the quarterback deciding whether to hand the ball off or keep it himself. Foles is nowhere near as mobile as Vick, and they were forced to remove the quarterback keep option from most of their plays. Instead they now run a different sort of option, giving Foles the choice to hand it off, throw a quick slant, or toss it outside to a wide receiver running a bubble screen. This has the same effect, confusing the defense’s reads and forcing them to cover the entirety of the field. It helps to have dynamic and versatile players like DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy to plug into this offense.

These changes have gotten most of the attention, but their late season push would not have happened had their defense not stepped up. This is a unit that still isn’t particularly good, but they have managed to play above the talent on their roster. They have faltered a times, notably letting a Vikings’ offense led by Matt Cassel and missing Adrian Peterson to score 48 points. There are reasons to be concerned about their offense as well. The success under Foles has come due to an unsustainably low rate of turnovers. With 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions, Foles set a record for the highest touchdown to interception ratio in NFL history. If he regresses towards a more reasonable number, it is easy to imagining their offense being slowed down. All that said, they just need their luck to hold together for four more games. This is absolutely a team that could win the Super Bowl.

Favorable Matchup: Green Bay Packers

Like Carolina, Philadelphia can exploit the Packers through a versatile running game. Green Bay was absolutely flummoxed by the read option last season, and it’s doubtful they will fare any better against Philadelphia’s new version. Their defense isn’t athletic enough to cover the field from sideline to sideline, and without Matthews they won’t be able to get pressure on Foles. Without pressure, it is unlikely they will be able to produce the turnovers needed to stop the Eagles’ offense. Their only hope would be for Aaron Rodgers to keep up in a shootout, a prospect that seems unlikely given their continuing rash of injuries on the offensive side of the ball.

Unfavorable Matchup: Seattle Seahawks

If there is a defense that can give this offense fits, it is in Seattle. The physicality of their corners allows them to play press coverage on every down, keeping more defenders near the line to cut down on the effectiveness of screen plays. Philadelphia's scheme works thanks to receivers who can block in space against cornerbacks, but their receivers are not used to blocking defenders significantly larger than them. With their screens neutralized, the Eagles will be forced to run the ball between the hashes. McCoy is the best running back in the league in open space, but players like Bruce Irvin and Earl Thomas have the athleticism to keep him in check. If Philadelphia gets bogged down with a bunch of quick punts, Seattle’s offense will be able to establish the rhythm they need to turn this into a blowout.

Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

The presence of Green Bay in these playoffs is more a testament to the wretchedness of the other teams in the NFC North than to the quality of their season. This year they proved what I have said for a long time: outside of Aaron Rodgers this is a bad football team. During the eight games he missed (including the game against the Bears when he went out in the first quarter) they were 2-5-1 with their two victories coming by a combined two points. They were thrashed by the Lions, easily handled by the Giants, and needed an incredible collapse from the Cowboys to squeak out a win. Even when Rodgers returned last week against the Bears they needed one of the worst coverage breakdowns I have ever seen to win the game.

All that said, there are still reasons to believe this is a team going on a deep playoff run. Aaron Rodgers is one of the three best quarterbacks in the league, and he alone is enough to take this team from one of the bottom ten in the league to one of the top ten. Eddie Lacy is banged up right now, but he still has the strength and aggressiveness to pick up three yards on every carry. Their defense has plenty of problems, especially if Clay Matthews misses any more games, but they have at least shown flashes of competence over the course of the season. The odds aren’t good of them putting together a run, but anything can happen in the playoffs.

Favorable Matchup: New Orleans Saints

Unfortunately for Green Bay, the team they match up best against is the team they are least likely to see. For them to face the Saints, both teams would have to make it to the NFC Championship game. That would involve New Orleans winning in Philadelphia and Seattle and Green Bay beating the 49ers at home and winning in Carolina. But if somehow this does happen, the Packers will be thrilled. The Saints’ defensive strength is their pass defense, but Rodgers can throw the ball against anybody, especially if his line gives him time. New Orleans is near the bottom of the league in sacks, and their front shouldn’t bother Rodgers at all. They are also a below average run defense, and the combination of Lacy and James Starks should be effective against them. On the defensive side of the ball, the Saints lack the running game to exploit Green Bay’s miserable run defense. Drew Brees can put up points by himself, but he won’t be able to match the balanced attack the Packers will be able to sustain.

Unfavorable Matchup: San Francisco 49ers

On the other hand, the team the Packers least want to see is the one the face in the first round. San Francisco has beaten Green Bay three times in the past two seasons, including the thrashing in last year’s Divisional Round. In their first game this season the Packers loaded up against the run and actually had success limiting the 49ers on the ground. The only problem was that Kaepernick threw for over 400 yards, more than 200 of them to Anquan Boldin. Now that he has a (somewhat limited) Crabtree back, he will only be more effective in attacking the Packers’ secondary. I expect Green Bay to drop back into a more preventative coverage scheme, and I expect San Francisco to attack them on the ground like they did in last year’s playoffs. Jim Harbaugh has shown that his offense can do whatever it wants against Green Bay. The only hope for the Packers is to win in a shootout. San Francisco’s defense has fallen off some from the past two seasons, and they might not be able to contain the Packers’ offense.

San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

The 49ers are running under the radar for a team that has been to the NFC Championship the past two seasons, the Super Bowl last year, and won twelve games this year. They have wins over playoff teams Seattle and Green Bay, two victories over the 10-6 Cardinals, and every loss they have is to a team in the playoffs. They routed every mediocre opponent they faced. Most of their struggles have come as a result of injuries, but they are finally starting to get healthy along their offensive line and in their receiving corps. Kaepernick’s mediocre numbers don’t reflect how well he has played, and their passing game will only improve as Crabtree gets back to normal speed.

The only negative thing you can say about this 49ers team is that they don’t do anything “great.” They have been a well rounded team ever since Jim Harbaugh arrived, but the past two seasons they have really excelled at running the ball and stopping the run. They are still above average in both those categories, but they are no longer dominating in the way they used to. Their offensive line has been hindered by injuries, and Frank Gore had the lowest yards per carry average of his career this season. At times early in the season their running game vanished altogether, leaving Kaepernick to struggle with too much of the offensive burden thrust upon him. If a team can contain their running game, their offense will struggle.

Favorable Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles

This game will be won by the strength and athleticism of the 49ers’ linebacker corps. Between Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis they have two of the top five interior linebackers in the game, both with the athleticism to cover the field from sideline to sideline. If their corners can play physical with the receivers and force their quick screens back inside, their linebackers will be able to rally to the ball and make the tackle. The pass rushing trio of Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks, and Aldon Smith will collapse the pocket around Foles and disrupt him enough to create the interceptions he has avoided thus far on the season. Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio struggled to hold down Chip Kelly’s offense when he was at Oregon, but they should have enough contacts left on Stanford’s staff to figure out how the Cardinal managed to contain the Ducks’ offense the past two seasons.

Unfavorable Matchup: Seattle Seahawks

It isn’t a coincidence that the 49ers have been thrashed each of the last two times they traveled to Seattle. Their offense does not match up well against the Seahawks’ defense. They lack burners on the outside who can run past Seattle’s large corners. Instead they put out a receiving corps of slower, more physical receivers like Boldin and Crabtree, players who aren’t used to facing defensive backs who can match them physically. In their first matchup of the year Richard Sherman pushed Boldin around the field, limiting him to one catch for seven yards. In their victory over Seattle late in the season, San Francisco was helped by a referee crew that called a number of (justified) penalties on Seattle’s secondary. If they get a similarly tight crew, they might be able to force Seattle to back off enough to open up the passing game. Up front, Seattle has the athleticism to run down San Francisco’s read option schemes. If they want to run the ball, the 49ers will have to line up with heavy backfields and try to push them around. Harbaugh is definitely willing to do this, though this is an area where they are hurt by the loss of their fullback Bruce Miller.

New Orleans Saints (11-5)

The Saints are in the playoffs, but they still have to be regretting how the season turned out. After holding Cam Newton and the Panthers’ offense in check for the first 58 minutes of their Week 16 matchup, they allowed him to drive 65 yards for a game winning touchdown in the final two minutes. Because of this the Panthers won the division and earned the two seed. Had New Orleans held on, they would be sitting only an upset of the Seahawks away from a path to the Super Bowl that didn’t require them to leave the Superdome. By this point everyone knows about how much better this team is when they play at home. In the Superdome this year they were 8-0 with only two victories by less than a seven points. On the road they were 4-4, including blowout losses to the Rams and Seahawks. Sitting in the sixth seed, they would need three straight road victories to reach the Super Bowl. That isn’t going to happen.

This offense has changed very little over the past couple seasons. They still spread the field and sling the ball around to a variety of targets, and they are still near the bottom of the league in rushing offense. One notable difference is in their pass protection, which is nowhere near as good as it has been in recent years. They let left tackle Jermon Bushrod go to the Bears in free agency, and they have missed him this season, especially in recent weeks. Robert Quinn and Greg Hardy combined for five sacks in their back to back losses against the Rams and the Panthers. On the defensive side of the ball they are much better than they have been in recent years, thanks to new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. The switch to a 3-4 has allowed Cameron Jordan to blossom into one of the better defenders in the league. But it is still the weakness of their team, and they can still be exposed by powerful or athletic teams.

Favorable Matchup: Carolina Panthers

These teams played twice this season, and despite how the last game turned out New Orleans still got the better of the two matchups. Carolina needed a last minute touchdown to beat New Orleans at home, and they were thoroughly outmatched during their game in the Superdome. In their second game the Panthers were able to get pressure on Brees, but when he had time to throw he tore apart their secondary. If they can find some way to shore up their protection, perhaps returning to Charles Brown at left tackle, they can score points on the Panthers’ defense. Carolina cannot say the same. In both matchups this year the Saints managed to utterly shut down the Panthers’ offense, at least until the last drive that won Carolina the division. Because they have no reason to fear Carolina’s wide receivers, they are able to stack the box against the run and trust their corners on islands against the mediocre receivers. Unless those receivers suddenly develop an ability to create separation, it will be another long day for Cam Newton attempting to throw the football.

Unfavorable Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles

The Saints’ defense does not have the athleticism to match the Eagles’ offense. There’s just no way around that. Philadelphia will spread the ball from sideline to sideline, forcing the Saints’ linebackers to play in space. They are not talented enough to corral McCoy or Jackson, and they don’t have corners physical enough to disrupt the Eagles’ timing. Philadelphia will score a lot of points, and it will be up to Brees and the offense to match them. They might be able to keep up for most of the game, but eventually their inability to run the ball will lead to them stalling on offense. This is another Wild Card Round matchup, and it is probably going to end badly for New Orleans.