Much has been made this week
about the four teams remaining being the four favorites heading into the
season. For those of you who have missed it, here were the Super Bowl odds of
the top four teams coming into this regular season.
Denver Broncos +600
San Francisco 49ers +700
Seattle Seahawks +800
New England
Patriots +850
All odds were gathered from
sportsoddshistory.com. For those of you who don’t know, these odds indicate how
much they would pay off if you were to wager $100. For example, odds of +600
would pay off with $600 dollars in addition to getting your original wager
back.
Now I normally don’t care about
gambling, but in this case the preseason odds give us a good idea of how teams
were perceived prior to the season. And really, the results of this
season shouldn’t be surprising. The people who make these odds are
professionals who spend their lives studying football teams and trends. They
should be able to correctly identify the top teams prior to the season.
I looked back through the preseason
odds in recent years, checking how each team fared based on their projections.
As you will see, this year is a surprising outlier. More often than not, the
preseason projections only vaguely mirror the eventual results of the season.
2012
Green Bay Packers +600 Divisional Round
New England
Patriots +600 Championship
Round
Houston Texans +1000 Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles +1100 Missed Playoffs
8: Baltimore Ravens +1800
The Packers were coming off a
15-1 season, and the Patriots had been to the Super Bowl the year before.
Neither team was a surprise as co-favorite, and neither team really
disappointed. The Packers grabbed the 3 seed and made it to the Divisional
Round before being run over by Colin Kaepernick. The Patriots were the 2 seed in
the AFC, and they defeated fellow favorite Houston to make it to the Championship game,
where they fell to the eventual champions. The big miss here was Philadelphia, who
suffered a catastrophic collapse after a strong start and ended up with the
fourth selection in the draft.
Coming from the eighth spot, the
Ravens were hardly an underdog. They made the playoffs as they had each of the
previous five seasons, but they surprised by going on a winning streak thanks
to a tremendous run by Joe Flacco. Before the season no one thought he was
capable of such a performance, which is why their odds were not better.
2011
New England
Patriots +500 Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers +650 Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles +800 Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers +1000 Missed Playoffs
12: New York Giants +2200
The favored Patriots made
it to the Super Bowl, something that you will see is incredibly rare. They lost in
that game, but the projection was hardly inaccurate. The Packers only made it
to the Divisional Round, but they finished the regular season with the best
record in the NFL. The two misses were Philadelphia,
who finished a game outside of the playoffs despite a late season surge, and San Diego, who finished
tied for the division lead but lost due to tiebreakers to the utter insanity
that was Tim Tebow.
The Giants beat the Cowboys in
the last week of the season to earn the playoff spot, and everyone knows what
happened from there. Eli Manning pulled together another classic playoff
performance and led the team to another upset of the Patriots. At the time,
though, there was no reason to believe Eli’s first run was anything other than
a one time occurrence. This wasn’t a particularly strong team across the board,
and there was nothing ridiculous about giving them such long odds.
2010
Indianapolis Colts +800 Wild Card Round
New Orleans Saints +1000 Wild Card Round
San Diego Chargers +1000 Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys +1000 Missed Playoffs
5: Green Bay Packers +1100
If you look just at the top four this is the worst set of results in recent years, though credit has to be given for the fifth seeded Packers
eventually winning the Super Bowl. The Colts won their division but were not
able to win a first round bye. They lost to the Jets in the first round of the
playoffs thanks in part to a blunder by Jim Caldwell (have fun, Detroit.) The Saints
looked to be in good position after earning the Wild Card, but they lost in the
infamous Marshawn Lynch game against a 7-9 Seahawks team. The Chargers fell a
game short of the surprising (and still perplexing) Chiefs, and the Cowboys
finished at a miserable 6-10, earning a top ten selection.
But as I mentioned above, the
team with the fifth best odds managed to win the title. The Packers were coming
off of a strong 2009 performance in which Aaron Rodgers proved he was
everything they had hoped he would be when they cast Brett Favre aside. They
had a good mix of young and old talent on their defense. Questions about their
running game and the sustainability of Rodgers’ success were enough to push
them out of the top four, but I think the oddsmakers deserve praise for
recognizing how good this team was.
2009
New England
Patriots +450 Wild Card
Round
Pittsburgh Steelers +1000 Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers +1000 Divisional Round
New York Giants +1200 Missed Playoffs
10: New Orleans Saints +2000
This season wasn’t much better.
The best result came from the Chargers, who earned a first round bye but lost
in their first playoff game to the Jets. The Patriots fell to Baltimore in the Wild Card Round, and the
other two failed to make the playoffs. The Steelers were defending Super Bowl
Champions but missed out due to a tiebreaker. The Giants were probably
overrated, especially when you consider their 1-4 finish to the 2008 season,
and they could only manage an 8-8 record.
The Saints were a surprise to
everyone, and the oddsmakers have to be given credit for having them ranked as
high as they did. New Orleans
had finished 2008 in last place in their division despite having the fourth
best point differential in the NFC. They rebounded remarkably in 2009, winning
their first thirteen and clinching the top seed in the NFC. From there it only
took a blowout of the Cardinals, and gift from Brett Favre (sob), and a
brilliant piece of coaching from Sean Payton to win the Super Bowl and fulfill
all the unrealized promise their roster had.
2008
New England
Patriots +350 Missed
Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys +600 Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers +700 Divisional Round
Indianapolis Colts +750 Wild Card Round
8: Pittsburgh Steelers +1800
There was every reason for the
Patriots to be overwhelming favorites. They had won their first 18 games the
previous season, only to fall short in the Super Bowl. They were bringing back
pretty much everyone, and they looked poised for another run until Tom Brady
tore his ACL in the first game of the season. Even without him they went 11-5,
but that wasn’t good enough to earn them a playoff spot. The Cowboys also
finished above .500, but they missed out on the playoffs thanks to a
humiliating loss in Week 17 that started a trend that has continued to this
day. The Colts and the Chargers faced off in the first round of the playoffs,
and the Chargers won thanks to the brilliance of their punter Mike Scifres
(only partially joking. He was incredible.) They were unable to knock off the
Steelers in the Divisional Round.
The Steelers were coming off a
playoff season that had ended with a disappointing loss in the Wild Card Round
to the Jaguars. But the core of this team was still very similar to the one
that had been crowned champions three seasons earlier. Their preseason ranking
didn’t account for the emergence of James Harrison as a dominant force, jumping
from a solid starter to NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Had the oddsmakers
realized they had such a dangerous pass rusher, this might have been enough to
bump them up a couple spots.
2007
New England
Patriots +250 Super Bowl
San Diego Chargers +600 Championship Round
Indianapolis Colts +800 Divisional Round
Chicago Bears +1400 Missed Playoffs
16: New York Giants +3000
The Patriots were dominant during
the 2007 season in every facet of the game, but their +250 odds before the season still seem
insane. Though I do understand where the oddsmakers were coming from. At this time
Brady had just established himself as an elite quarterback, and during the
offseason they added Randy Moss and Wes Welker to his receiving corps. The
other teams were similarly impressive. The Colts were coming off a Super Bowl
run, and the Chargers were in the midst of their run with a core of Rivers,
Tomlinson, and Gates. Both advanced deep into the playoffs, but this was the
Patriots’ year in the AFC. The Bears were the defending NFC Champions playing
in a weak division, but they fell apart due to issues at the quarterback
position and the regrettable decision to part ways with Thomas Jones in favor
of Cedric Benson.
The Giants came out of nowhere,
both at the beginning of the season and in the playoffs. The rode a hot finish
to the season through the playoffs. Coming into this season there was no reason
to believe Eli Manning was anything other than a mediocre quarterback, and his
performance through most of the regular season matched what he had done through
his career to that point. But he made his name with a league leading six game
winning drives, a reputation that has clung to him to this day.
2006
Indianapolis Colts +600 Super Bowl Champions
New England
Patriots +800 Championship
Round
Seattle Seahawks +1000 Divisional Round
Denver Broncos +1200 Missed Playoffs
Finally!!! The oddsmakers
actually got this one right! Not only did they list the ultimate champion among
their top four, they had them sitting in the number one spot. The Colts were in
the midst of their run of dominant regular seasons, but they had consistently
fallen short in the playoffs. The oddsmakers correctly recognized that playoff
success can be fickle, and they did not penalize Indianapolis for the results of a handful of
games.
The rest of this list doesn’t
look too bad either. The Patriots made it to the Championship Round only to
lose to the Colts thanks to a stunning comeback. It may not have seemed a bold
projection to give the defending NFC Champion Seahawks the third best odds, but
this came at the end of a stretch in which the past five Super Bowl runners up
had failed to make the playoffs the following season. The oddsmakers ignored
this statistical quirk, and they were paid off with a Divisional Round run by Seattle. But even in this
successful year, they missed on their projection of the Broncos. After losing
in the AFC Championship game the previous season, Denver missed out on the playoffs due to
losses in five of their last seven games.
In the past seven seasons the
oddsmakers identified three Super Bowl participants and only one winner among
their top four. At least one of the top four missed the playoffs each year, and on two occasions the four teams combined to win zero playoff games. But this isn’t intended as a criticism of the oddsmakers. It is
just the nature of a single elimination tournament following a sixteen game
season to produce somewhat random results.
So why is this year different?
Were these four teams just that much better than everyone else in the league?
If you look at the results from this season, it’s hard to disagree with that
assessment. These teams produced four of the best five records in the league (Carolina tied San Francisco
and New England at 12-4) and three of them
managed a first round bye. That certainly made the road to the Championship
Round easier for them. Even San
Francisco was favored in both of their playoff games.
This brings me to my next point:
a surprising lack of upsets. Last weekend was the first time since 2004 that a
Divisional Round passed without an upset. Upsets are usually the result of
unfortunate matchups or random circumstance. This year all four teams were
faced with favorable opponents, and the randomness did not rear its ugly head. As
good as these teams are, they are all beatable in the right circumstances. They
have just been fortunate to avoid those circumstances to this point.
Another problem that derailed
favored teams was injuries. The 2007 Bears, 2008 Patriots, and 2011 Eagles are
all examples of this. And while none of these teams lost a player as valuable
as a quarterback, it is hard to say they have stayed perfectly healthy. The
49ers missed Michael Crabtree and Aldon Smith (for a non-injury concern) for
long portions of the season. The Seahawks had to play without Russell Okung and
Brandon Browner. The Broncos are now without Von Miller, Derek Wolfe, and Chris
Harris, maybe their three best defensive players. And the Patriots currently
have more than $20 million of their salary cap on injured reserve. No team has suffered more
devastating injuries than the Patriots.
But despite these injuries, these
teams are still the final four left alive. And that comes down to the most
underrated parts of these teams: coaching. In past years, teams have faltered
behind Norv Turner and Jim Caldwell, Wade Philips and Jason Garrett. A good
coach helps a talented team overcome obstacles put in its way, and these teams
all have very good coaches. Bill Belichick is already a legend, and it can be
argued he has done his best job this season with a roster put together of unwanted
castoffs. Jim Harbaugh is right there with Belichick as one of the three best
coaches in the league. John Fox has taken a team quarterbacked by Jake Delhomme
to the Super Bowl and another quarterbacked by Tim Tebow to the playoffs. He
has his problems, getting far too conservative at times, but he is smart enough
to stay out of Peyton Manning’s way. And Pete Carroll deserves all the credit
in the world for the success of the Seahawks. This team is successful because
of what he has done recognizing and developing mid round talent into elite
players.
These four teams were considered
the best at the beginning of the year, and they are they have been the best
throughout the regular season. Part of their success is due to luck, but most
of it is thanks to the fantastic talent on these rosters. For those of you who
are interested, here are their odds heading into the Championship Round.
Seattle Seahawks +170
Denver Broncos +200
San Francisco 49ers +350
New England Patriots +500
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