Super Bowl Preview Part Two

Here is the second part of my overly long Super Bowl preview. This time I feature the matchup everyone (including me) is most excited about: Denver’s record breaking offense against Seattle’s dominant defense. It’s in the same format as the first part. I’ve gone through these teams unit by unit, compared them to similar groups across the league, and examined the tape to get some idea of what we might be in store for on Sunday.

Broncos Offense

Seahawks Defensive Line

Versatility and depth are the defining characteristics of Seattle’s defensive line. While they lack any individual player who could be considered among the elite at his position in the league, the unit as a whole has enough playmakers to be truly formidable. Two of their three edge rushers—Cliff Avril and Chris Clemons—spend as much time playing in a standup linebacker role as they do in as a down lineman. The other—Michael Bennett, one of the best run defenders in the NFL—can bounce inside and play defensive tackle if necessary. Inside they have Red Bryant, a defensive tackle with the ability to hold the edge on defense end, and run stuffer Brandon Mebane. This unit can attack with multiple players from multiple angles, and they will not wear down as the game winds on.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs feature versatility in their pass rush similar to Seattle’s. For the sake of this I’ll include pass rushing linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali as part of their defensive line. While they didn’t have a third edge option as dangerous as Seattle’s, they had plenty of other players who can collapse the pocket around the quarterback. Dontari Poe cooled off after a torrid start to the season, but even when he wasn’t racking up sacks he was a menace in the quarterback’s face. Tyson Jackson put together a surprisingly competent season, adding four sacks of his own. Denver beat Kansas City in Week 11 by a score of 27-17 and in Week 13 by a score of 35-28.

Houston didn’t play in the second game between these teams, so I’ll focus my attention on the first. During this game Kansas City played almost every snap with a nickel package on the field (as most teams do against Denver) but rather than pulling out a linebacker they took a defensive lineman off the field. This meant that in essence they were playing a 4-2 with Hali and Houston lining up on the end of the line on every play. They never stacked the box, and Denver attacked the weakness of their run defense with a power running game. The Broncos normally run primarily zone schemes, but in this game they did a lot of pulling with their backside linemen, trusting those on the frontside to handle Kansas City’s undersized attack. It didn’t work particularly well, and I don’t expect to see much of that against Seattle. The Seahawks have enough versatility that they can go to nickel without weakening their run defense.

Denver did a phenomenal job in pass protection this game, preventing the Chiefs from laying a single hit on Manning. When Kansas City sent just the four men on the line, the pass rush was nonexistent. They found some success pressuring Manning by sending more complex blitzes, occasionally getting a free linebacker or a safety running unblocked. But these blitzes often left them unbalanced in coverage, vulnerabilities Manning was able to exploit. He threw a lot of quick screens to wide receivers, but don’t expect those to work against Seattle. The Seahawks specialize in shutting down such plays. Even if those won’t work, Manning has other ways of handling pressure. He isn’t known for his mobility, but he is a genius when it comes to sliding just far enough to neutralize a blitz. Seattle might be better off trusting that their front four can beat Denver’s offensive line.

Seahawks Linebackers

Seattle fields the most athletic group of linebackers in the NFL. In 2012 they spent their first two picks on a pair of athletic but undeveloped players in Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner. Both have since developed into starters, and Wagner has become one of the best inside linebackers in the league. He has the speed and instincts to close down any passing lanes that open up, and he covers the field from sideline to sideline against the run. Irvin has suffered some growing pains, but most of these can be attributed to his move from a pure pass rusher to a more balanced role. He had eight sacks last year but only two this year as the additions of Avril and Bennett allowed him to move to a more traditional linebacker position.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Dallas Cowboys

The linebackers that the Cowboys put out on the field are almost Seattle’s match in athleticism. Sean Lee is as good in pass coverage as any linebacker in the league thanks to his ability to cover great stretches of territory and his skill playing the ball when it is in the air. Bruce Carter is an athletic nightmare, but he is even less developed than the players Seattle is putting out there. During the game against Denver he split time evenly with Ernie Sims, a veteran who still has some of the athleticism that made him a top ten selection. The Broncos played the Cowboys in Week 5 and won 51-48.

The linebackers didn’t play a big role in the game between Denver and Dallas, and they are unlikely to play a major role in the Super Bowl. They will be responsible for handling the various crossing routes that Denver runs. They will either have to react quickly to cut down the open lanes between their zones or be ready to move up and make a sure tackle of any pass completed in front of them. Both these are areas where Seattle’s linebackers excel, and they shouldn’t have any trouble with crossing routes in this game. Denver will instead try to exploit them through the running game. Since the linebackers will be expecting the pass on most plays, Denver can attack them by giving an initial pass look before handing the ball off. Several times in the game against the Cowboys, Manning was able to get the linebackers to start their drops with a quick pump fake before handing the ball on a draw underneath to Moreno. Because Denver spreads the field with their wide receivers, Seattle’s linebackers will have very little help from the secondary if a ball carrier manages to get past the first wave of defenders. Denver can use their aggression and inexperience against them to create lanes for their running backs.

Seahawks Secondary

The Seahawks have the best secondary in the league by a comfortable margin. They have the best safety and the best cornerback playing side by side. They are long, athletic, and extremely skilled. They play as physically as any defensive backfield in the league, often pushing the limits of the referees’ tolerance for contact. Though they are known for their press man coverage, they play just as much zone. Earl Thomas patrols the middle while their cornerbacks drop into deep thirds. Richard Sherman almost always stays on the left, and they trust their other cornerbacks against any wide receiver in the league. Brandon Browner won’t play because of his illegal substance suspension, but both Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond have proven to be excellent replacements.

2013 Opponent Comparison: New England Patriots

Comparing any team’s secondary to Seattle’s is a laughable endeavor, but I’ll give it a shot. The Patriots’ Aqib Talib is one of the few cornerbacks in the league who can compare both in stature and skill to those playing in Seattle. Devin McCourty is an athletic safety with excellent coverage skills, a lesser version of Thomas. The rest of their secondary doesn’t compare particularly well, but Alfonso Dennard and Logan Ryan are both talented young players at the cornerback position. The Patriots don’t play nearly as much Cover-3 as Seattle (nobody does) but they do occasionally drop into Cover-2 with zone underneath. Denver lost to New England 34-31 in Week 12 and beat them 26-16 in the Championship Round.

One notable similarity between Seattle and New England is where they line their cornerbacks up prior to the snap. Against wide receivers split out towards the sideline these teams almost always have their cornerbacks playing within a yard of the line of scrimmage, even if they are responsible for a deep zone. This allows them to vary their looks, giving the appearance of press coverage even when they aren’t trying to get physical with the receivers. It also gets the cornerbacks more involved in the running game, and we saw the effects of that when Denver played New England. Most of the run plays they called came out of the spread formation, and nearly all of them were designed to go between the tackles. Because the cornerbacks play so close to the line they are able to set the edge or string out the runs towards the sideline. Denver was not able to cluster everyone inside to try to get the edge with their running backs, so they chose to spread the defense out and try to power it up the gut. This would be ideal if they had a big, physical runner like Marshawn Lynch, but their backs are best in open space or on the edge.

But all that is secondary to the biggest question of this game: can the Broncos throw the ball on the Seahawks? No one has been able to yet this season, but if there is any team capable it is the one they are facing. To beat the Seahawks’ secondary a team needs to have receivers who can win matchups when they play man and a quarterback with the intelligence and accuracy to fit the ball through the windows they present when playing zone. Denver has both, and they showed it against New England. Because they have so many offensive weapons they are able to design plays that attack both zone and man coverages. On one side of the field they will have receivers running patterns that let them create separation against defenders playing man on man. On the other they have combinations designed to overload or confuse defenders in zone. Their favorite such combination against New England involved a pair of split receivers coming together as they ran verticals downfield with one breaking off on an out route while the other continued deep. The cornerback responsible for the deep zone has to stick with the receiver on the fade, and it is left to the man covering the flat to recognize and drop beneath the out pattern. Seattle has the players capable of making such plays—Kam Chancellor intercepted a pass in the NFC Championship Game under these circumstances—but Denver has the one quarterback in the league I would most want making these decisions.

Seahawks Defense

Broncos Quarterback

Everything that can be said about Peyton Manning has already been said. Manning has been the best player in the league all season. He gets the ball out quick when the pass rush is coming, and he takes shots deep when he has receivers in single coverage. He almost always makes the correct read and the correct throw. The only defenses that have managed to slow him down are those that were able to press his receivers and generate pressure. If the defense doesn’t play tight against his receivers, he’ll throw it to the open man before the pass rush can get to him. If the pass rush isn’t coming hard, he’ll hold the ball until one of his men gets separation. During the postseason he has managed a slow, time consuming offense that has only punted once in the two games. During the regular season he showed he was capable of leading a fast, high octane unit that would run the defense ragged. Stopping him will be the toughest challenge the Seahawks have faced all year.

2013 Opponent Comparison: New Orleans Saints

Manning was the best quarterback in the league this year by a significant margin, and Drew Brees had a comfortable claim to second. He is very similar stylistically to Manning as well, a pocket passer who runs many of his plays from a shotgun spread formation. Both quarterbacks have tremendous control over their offenses, and both excel at getting the ball out of their hands quickly to avoid incoming pressure. Manning is physically larger than Brees, but both have comparable levels of athleticism. They move well within the pocket but struggle when forced out of it. Controlling these quarterbacks requires across the board discipline in the secondary and a pass rush that can force them to get rid of the ball. The Seahawks beat the Saints 34-7 in Week 13 and won 23-15 in the Divisional Round.

The Seahawks held Brees in check both times they played. He ended up with 309 yards passing in the Divisional Round, but most of those came after Seattle had built a sizeable lead. In the first half the Saints were unable to get anything through the air, and they really didn’t try. They came out in sets with multiple blocking tight ends and tried to run the ball directly at Seattle, finding some success. The Seahawks were playing the pass on every play, stacking the line with multiple pass rushers rather than letting their linebackers flow to the run. With everyone on the line it was easy for New Orleans to open holes and get their running backs to the next level. Seattle backed off into more standard alignments in the second half, allowing more passing opportunities for Brees but shutting down the running game. It is unlikely we’ll see anything like this against the Broncos. Denver won’t be bringing in heavy offensive personnel groups, and if Seattle stacks the line they won’t try to run through it. Instead they’ll try to pick it apart by throwing quick slants before Seattle’s linebackers can drop back into their zones. Seattle will be content to let them try this, trusting their linebackers to be athletic enough to cut off these throws.

In their secondary the Seahawks played much more zone coverage than normal when facing Brees, particularly when New Orleans lined up with multiple receivers spread across the field. When there is only a single receiver out wide, the duty of covering the flat falls to the outside linebacker usually lined up on the end of the line. That is a lot of ground to cover, and even Seattle’s fast linebackers often can’t get out quickly enough to undercut a quick curl by a wide receiver. When two or more receivers are split out on the same side, the responsibility for covering the flat falls to the defender lined up in front of the slot receiver. He has much less distance to cover to get out the flat, and the window to fit the ball into the widest receiver is much narrower. New Orleans managed to attack this zone by overloading the flat defender or the linebacker working in the curl zone. Both players have to cover a lot of space and a number of different routes, and well designed packages can leave one defender responsible for two wide receivers. But even if a team is able to run these plays properly, it is still a monumental task to complete these routes. The quarterback needs to see the receivers coming open at the right time, put the ball perfectly on the spot, and hope that Seattle’s defenders aren’t athletic enough to close down the window before the ball can get there. Brees had mixed success on these plays, but if there is any quarterback who can find and exploit these holes, it is Peyton Manning.

Broncos Running Backs

Knowshon Moreno is a clear secondary option in Denver’s scheme, and he has excelled in that role. He has become one of the best pass protecting running backs in the league, and when he doesn’t stay in to block he is a dangerous option as a receiver. As a runner he is smart enough to know that he doesn’t need to do a lot, that picking up even three or four yards is a great help to an intelligent quarterback like Manning. He usually finds the hole, makes one cut, and picks up what he can. It helps that he only ever carries in situations where it is advantageous to run the football. If Manning sees a defense playing against the pass, he’ll audible to a handoff. If a running play is called and he sees a stacked box, he’ll throw it out to one of his receivers. Denver’s backup, Montee Ball, is a similar player to Moreno, just with a bit more power.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Atlanta Falcons

Like Denver, Atlanta prefers throwing the ball to running it. No team in the league this year threw the ball on a higher percentage of their plays than the Falcons. Stylistically their running game is not particularly similar, though comparisons can be made between Jacquizz Rodgers and Moreno. Their main back is Steven Jackson, a much bigger and more physical runner than anyone Denver has. But Atlanta’s backs are comparable to Denver’s in their ability to pick up a pass rush and leak out as receivers. Seattle played Atlanta in Week 10 and won 33-10.

Seattle effectively shut down Atlanta’s running game when they played, and it required no great effort on their part. They kept seven men in the box on most plays, though they didn’t restrict themselves to a standard alignment. They brought their linebackers up towards the line as additional pass rushers and occasionally even pulled in a safety or a cornerback to blitz off the edge. This limited their defenders’ abilities to scrape over top of the play, and Atlanta managed a couple decent runs off quick hitting handoffs to Rodgers up the middle, the sort of runs Denver favors. Seattle will have to be more cautious in how they play against the run during the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks’ strategy for covering the backs out of the backfield varied depending on whether their secondary was in man or zone. Against man coverage they matched either a linebacker or a safety up against the running back if he went out on a route. If he stayed in to block, the defender responsible for covering him had free reign to rush the passer. These delayed blitzes caused serious problems with Atlanta’s protection schemes and Matt Ryan’s comfort in the pocket. When dropping into a zone the Seahawks were content to let their linebackers take the running back if he leaked out into their zone. This may provide a couple of opportunities for Denver. They could try swinging the running back into the flat where the zone is weak, but Seattle’s defensive ends have shown the intelligence to recognize those plays and get in the way of the passes. A better option would be to try to throw screens, but Seattle’s linebackers can usually demolish a screen play before it can get set up. If Denver is going to move the ball in this game, they will have to find some way to do it without throwing the ball to their running backs.

Broncos Offensive Line

Denver has managed to put together a strong offensive line despite losing their best player in the unit to a preseason injury. Without Ryan Clady they have struggled some on the edges, but in the interior they are among the best units in the league. Zane Beadles and Louis Vasquez may be the best guard tandem in the NFL. Manny Ramirez has gotten better as the year has gone on after being their third option at center. When their tackles are playing well this is one of the best units in the league, but there have been games in which Chris Clark and Orlando Franklin have struggled against edge rushers. If the Seahawks are going to get pressure, it will have to come from the outside.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay had a number of problems with their line this season, but by the time they played Seattle they were getting things rounded into shape. Their two best players were their guards, and though both disappointed this season they were still the strength of their line. Donald Penn is inconsistent at left tackle, but he is a better player than either of Denver’s tackles. When they are playing well they can be a dominant unit, anchored by the strength in the middle. But they were prone to fits of incompetence during the season, especially in the early parts. Seattle played the Buccaneers in Week 9 this year and won 27-24 in overtime.

Seattle recognized where the strength of Tampa Bay’s offensive line was and chose to attack it. They lined up during the game in more 3-4 looks than normal, bringing in an extra defensive tackle and stacking their three tackles over Tampa Bay’s guards and center. This left them stout against the interior run and allowed their linebackers to flow to the ball without having to worry about the Buccaneers’ best offensive linemen getting in their way. They had trouble stopping the run when they went to four down linemen, but that was a necessary adjustment they made as the game wore on due to Tampa Bay’s success throwing the ball. For this reason, they will avoid bringing an extra tackle onto the field against Denver. If they could stack three tackles over the interior linemen like they did against Tampa Bay, they would completely shut down Moreno and the Broncos’ running game. But their primary concern will be with stopping Manning from throwing the ball, something they can’t do with three big, immobile linemen on the field.

That said, they may still try to make a 3-4 defense work. A 4-3 alignment usually limits a team to rushing the four men with their hands on the ground, but with a 3-4 the final rusher can come from any of the linebacker spots. Seattle has the athleticism at linebacker necessary to make this work. But they will still face the problem of having to find three players to play in the middle, and that’s where having a player like Michael Bennett is invaluable. He is just as strong against the run as he is as a pass rusher, and they could reasonably line him up over one of Denver’s guards. This is a similar strategy to the one the Giants used to knock off the Patriots in 2007. A 3-4 alignment with Bennett at one of the defensive end spots will allow Seattle to mix up their pressure packages while remaining stout against the running game.

Broncos Wide Receivers

Denver has the best wide receiving corps in the NFL by a comfortable margin. They had a strong case to make last year, and during the offseason they signed Wes Welker and developed Julius Thomas as a receiving tight end. Toss in Moreno as a receiving option out of the backfield, and it’s hardly surprising that Manning shattered passing records this season. Demaryius Thomas is a big wide receiver who can beat a defense over the top or with the ball in his hands. Decker is at his best as a deep threat stretching the defense, while Welker and Julius Thomas give Manning release options over the middle. They are athletic and crafty, big and shifty. This is a perfectly constructed unit of talent, and it will be the biggest test Seattle’s secondary has had to face.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Arizona Cardinals

Okay, this is probably the biggest stretch I have. But it’s hard to find any receiving corps that can match up to the talent and depth that is in Denver. Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Chicago are the closest, but Seattle didn’t play any of them. As good as Seattle’s pass defense is, they haven’t had to face a truly elite group of wide receivers this year. So I am going to have to compromise and go with Arizona. The Cardinals have one truly elite wide receiver in Larry Fitzgerald and a developing young player in Michael Floyd. Andre Roberts is mildly dangerous out of the slot, but they get next to nothing from their tight end position. Despite seeing limited playing time this year, Andre Ellington has already become one of the NFL’s most dangerous receiving options out of the backfield. Seattle beat Arizona 34-22 in Week 7 and lost 17-10 in Week 16.

As good as Seattle’s secondary is, they were still a little skittish when they faced Arizona’s receivers. When they play man coverage they trust that Thomas will be able to recognize and double team any deep routes, but when they drop into their three deep zone he is responsible solely for the middle of the field. This means that their cornerbacks are often matched up alone on receivers running deep down the sideline. Against most of the teams they played they trusted their cornerbacks to win in these one on one situations, but both Arizona and Denver have receivers capable of blowing past a defensive back or winning a jump ball. Against Arizona they tried to combat this by not rolling a safety into the box. When they played man coverage they kept a two deep zone over the top, and when they played zone they had one of their safeties run to the sideline to undercut an out pattern. This allowed their cornerbacks to play more cautious over the top without worrying that the receiver will turn around underneath their soft coverage.

The downside of this strategy is that it left them weak against the run. Arizona isn’t a great running team, and Seattle was able to slow them down with their defensive front alone. But as the game wore on it became clear that they were concerned with the success the Cardinals were finding. Their safeties began to respond more aggressively on running plays, and they stopped leaving an extra defender over the top except in obvious passing situations. It helped that the Cardinals were stuck with Carson Palmer at quarterback. He threw four interceptions the second time these teams played, and Seattle could risk encouraging the offense to throw. They likely won’t make these same adjustments against Manning and Denver unless they are being absolutely gashed through the running game.

Conclusion

In this game we will see the best offense in the NFL go against the best defense in the NFL. Both units have been overwhelmingly successful throughout the season, and both are confident that they can dictate the game. Neither will change their normal strategy much for the Super Bowl. Seattle may play slightly more zone than normal, and Denver will likely spread the field even more often than during the regular season. But it will ultimately come down to which team’s best is better. Can Manning fit the ball through the holes in Seattle’s zone? Can the Seahawks win the one on one battles on the outside? In a matchup like this, there isn’t a great deal of scheming necessary.

The two players to watch are Chris Clark and Kam Chancellor. Clark has been the weak spot on Denver’s offensive line all season, but when he is able to hold up in pass protection Manning is almost untouchable. He’ll have his hands full with Seattle’s versatile pass rush, and the Broncos will need him to hold up on the edge when he is put one on one against Avril, Bennett, or Clemons. Chancellor is a bit of a wild card on Seattle’s defense. Seattle plays a fairly basic  coverage across the board, and when they drop into their three deep zone it is easy to predict where their players will go to in coverage. The exception to this is Chancellor. Sometimes he hangs out in the middle of the field ready to blast a receiver running a crossing route. Sometimes he comes up hard at the line to add an extra man against the run. Sometimes he sprints towards the sideline to try to cut underneath a receiver on a corner. Two weeks ago he intercepted Kaepernick on such a play, and he should have plenty of opportunities to make similar game altering plays during the Super Bowl.

Prediction

Normally I don’t bother with predictions. Football is a fairly random game, and the best I can truly give is around sixty percent confidence. In a game as closely contested as this, any prediction is essentially a toss up. But if I have to pick one, even with only fifty-one percent confidence, I’ll go with Seattle.

I expect that Denver will be able to throw the ball against Seattle, but they will struggle in the red zone. They will move and control the ball fairly well, but eventually the Seahawks will come up with a crucial takeaway. The Broncos will score their points, but Seattle’s offense is capable of matching them. They will exploit Denver’s banged up defense make a couple of big plays through the running and the passing game, giving them the points they need to win a high scoring game.

Seattle 31 – Denver 27