Denver Broncos
(13-3)
The Broncos’ offense has been the
story of the season this year. They shattered all sorts of NFL records, led by
Peyton Manning who reached new heights of quarterback play. Surrounded by the
most dangerous supporting cast of his career, he set the NFL record for passing
yards and passing touchdowns in a season while only throwing ten interceptions.
More than that, he controlled an offense that allowed Knowshon Moreno to
finally develop into the player the Broncos envisioned when they drafted him in the first
round. This offense is loaded with weapons, and there is no possible way to
contain them all.
So how do you beat this team?
First of all, a defense has to find some way to exploit the one weakness of the
Broncos’ offense: their line. A strength coming into the season, injuries have
reduced their effectiveness in containing a pass rush. I went into greater
detail on this here, but the simplest summary
is that Denver
has adjusted by running a lot of short crossing routes, pick plays, and screens
to take the pressure off the line. The way to counter this is to play physical
with the wide receivers in order to disrupt their timing and force Manning to
hold the ball until the pass rush can close in. They will still score their
points, but they will be limited enough that a competent offense can keep up by
scoring against a vulnerable defense. Denver
has struggled all year against the pass, and the loss of Von Miller to a torn
ACL will only exacerbate their struggles. They were very strong against the run
for most of the year, but the absences of Derek Wolfe and Kevin Vickerson have
cost them that advantage. Either could return in the playoffs, but it’s just as
likely that Denver
will have to find a way to field a defense without them.
Favorable Matchup: Cincinnati
Bengals
As banged up as Cincinnati’s defense is, it is hard to
imagine them holding down the Broncos’ offense. Without Leon Hall they don’t
have the cornerbacks to challenge these physical receivers. Unless they are
willing to stack the box against the run (which they won’t be) they don’t have
a chance of containing Knowshon Moreno. Healthy this defense could present
matchup problems for Denver’s
offensive line, but as things are Manning will be able to call plays to attack
the weakness of the Bengals’ defense. They don’t have players capable of
consistently beating an opponent or swallowing a double team like they had with
a healthy Geno Atkins. Their offense has improved this season, but they lack
the firepower to exploit Denver’s
secondary. AJ Green is capable of producing a spectacular game, but it won’t be
enough to keep up with Denver’s
offense.
Unfavorable Matchup: New England
Patriots
Denver is absolutely the favorite to win the
AFC. Even though New England matches up against them as well as any team, even
though they beat the Broncos earlier this season, I would still expect Denver to win if this
matchup occurs. That said, New England has
done as good a job as anyone slowing down the Broncos’ offense. In Aqib Talib
they have one of the largest and most physical cornerbacks outside of Seattle, and in their
first game he managed to hold Demaryius Thomas in check without much help. That
performance will be difficult to repeat, but he has been effective against
almost every top receiver he has faced this season. The key matchup is the
Patriots’ run defense against Moreno,
who carried the ball 37 times for 224 yards in their first contest. New England
has struggled all year against the run, and Denver may be able to sustain offense without
needing to challenge their cornerbacks. On the other side of the ball, this
game could swing on the absence of Von Miller. In their first game Denver got up early
thanks to several fantastic plays from him, but with him out Tom Brady will be
able to attack their defense without needing to fear for his own well being.
They should be able to put up points to keep pace with Denver’s offense.
New England Patriots
(12-4)
I’ll be honest with you. I’m
still not sure how New England managed to win
twelve games this season. Yes, their schedule was manageable, and yes, they had
some good fortune late in games against New Orleans
and Denver, but
this team should not be the two seed in the AFC. Their roster was never that
talented, and injuries have robbed them of most of their top players. It’s a
credit to this team’s discipline and depth that they’ve managed to win games
despite their injuries. They win games not by creating positive plays but by
letting their opponents make negative plays, keeping hold of the ball and allowing
turnovers to come to them.
To beat the Patriots a team needs
first and foremost to eliminate turnovers. Even when New
England’s offense is struggling, they are lethal converting
opponents’ mistakes into points. They’ve been doing this for years, surrendering
massive yardage totals but stopping their opponents when their backs are
against the wall. It has seemed inevitable that this strategy would fail them,
but so far it has proven sustainable. To defeat New
England, a team has to play disciplined football and take
advantage of the opportunities presented to them. They can help create these
opportunities by attacking the weak heart of the Patriots’ defense with a
powerful running game. Since the losses of Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, and
Jerod Mayo the Patriots have been unable to hold their ground against a stout
running attack. Keep the ball on the ground and avoid turnovers, and this
Patriots team is not the least bit intimidating.
Favorable Matchup: San
Diego Chargers
Brady will tear the Chargers’ defense
apart. Though they have improved as the season has progressed, San Diego’s defense remains one of the worst
units in the league. They cannot pressure the quarterback, and they will
struggle to cover even New England’s mediocre
receivers. The They don't have any semblance of a pass rush, and they will give Brady as much time as he wants to find an open receiver. The only chance
the Chargers have is if they can sustain a running game against the Patriots’
defense and avoid turnovers. Philip Rivers has done an admirable job cutting
down on interceptions this season, but this is the same quarterback who threw
twenty picks just two years ago. He could very easily regress and give the
Patriots the breaks they live off of.
Unfavorable Matchup: Kansas
City Chiefs
Kansas City
is exactly the type of team that can capitalize on the chances presented to
them by New England. They play a highly
conservative offense that specializes in avoiding turnovers. Despite the
general mediocrity of their offense, they are one of the ten most efficient
teams at scoring touchdowns in the red zone. If New
England gives them a chance to score, they will take full
advantage of it. Their defense is also set up ideally to slow the
Patriots’ offense. Brady is probably the least mobile quarterback in the
league, and he struggles especially with pressure up the middle. Dontari Poe
has fallen off from his torrid pass rushing start to the season, but he is
still a disruptive force from the nose tackle position. He will be able to
overpower a banged up Patriots line and get into Tom Brady’s face, forcing the
sort of mistakes New England usually avoids.
Cincinnati Bengals
(11-5)
Like New
Orleans, Cincinnati
is another middle of the pack team that put together a strong season by being
unbeatable at home. During games in Cincinnati
their offense was almost unstoppable, and it has allowed people to overlook
their 3-5 record on the road this season. Their only road victories have come
by a combined thirteen points over Buffalo, San Diego, and Detroit.
At home, however, they scored at least 34 points in each of their past five
games. Wherever they play, this is not the same team that has been eliminated
in the first round the past two seasons. Andy Dalton has developed from a game
manager into an inconsistent quarterback with flashes of brilliance and
flashes of total incompetence. This may not sound like a big deal, but it is
the difference between a player who could never get over the hump like Matt
Schaub and a Super Bowl Champion like Joe Flacco. If they are going to sustain
a deep run in the playoffs, they will need several moments of brilliance from Dalton that he wouldn’t
have been able to provide during his first two seasons in the league.
Even with their offensive success,
the strength of this team is still the defense. But this is a unit that is
banged up, missing their two best players in the aforementioned Atkins and Hall.
It’s a testament to the greatness of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer (who
should absolutely get a head coaching job this year) that they have held
together so far this season, but cracks are beginning to show. Three weeks ago
the Steelers scored with ease on them early in the game, and last week they
allowed the Ravens to mount a big comeback that was only thwarted when Flacco
started throwing the ball to the wrong team. If their defense is no longer
performing at an elite level, the flaws in their offense will become more
evident. Receivers other than AJ Green have stepped up their production, but they
still lack a reliable secondary target. Their running game has been
inconsistent over the course of the season, and rookie Giovani Bernard seemed
to hit a wall a few weeks back. And again, it all comes down to Dalton. They are one bad
performance away from being eliminated from the playoffs, but they are also
four great performances away from being Super Bowl Champions.
Favorable Matchup: Indianapolis
Colts
The injuries to the Bengals’
defense have hindered them against balanced offensive attacks, but they are
still capable of shutting down one dimensional teams. Indianapolis cannot run the ball, and the
Bengals will not bother stacking the box against them. Instead they will drop
into coverage, trusting their four man pass rush to beat the Colts’ porous
offensive line. Andrew Luck is used to pressure, but the Bengals are a rare
team that can create pressure without having to bother with blitzes, allowing
them to play tight coverage across the field. Offensively, the Bengals showed
what they can do to the questionable Colts’ defense when they put up 42 points
against them a few weeks back. Even if they can’t recreate that production,
they can score enough to give their defense breathing room to attack
Indianapolis’s
offense.
Unfavorable Matchup: New England
Patriots
These two teams played earlier in
the year, and Cincinnati
came out on top. They did so by holding New England
without a touchdown, a performance they will be unable to repeat without
Atkins. As I mentioned above, Brady struggles when facing interior pressure,
and no one in the league generates interior pressure like Atkins. The Bengals’
defensive line is still capable of producing tremendous pressure, but they lack
the disruptive force to get Brady off his game. If this matchup happens again,
the Bengals will be fortunate to better the thirteen points they scored on New England earlier in the season. Talib shut down AJ
Green in that game, and he will probably be able to contain him to some extent
if asked to do so again. Cincinnati might be
able to sustain some offense by running the ball, but eventually the Patriots’ tight coverage will force Dalton into a mistake.
Indianapolis Colts
(11-5)
The Colts play to the level of
their competition. They have beaten the Chiefs, Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers
this season. They have lost to the Chargers, Rams, and Dolphins and have been
embarrassed by the Cardinals and the Bengals. A few weeks back they looked
done, over a five week stretch alternating double digit losses to the Rams,
Cardinals, and Bengals with a pair of narrow victories over the Titans. But
since then they have won three straight games by comfortable margins, and they
appear to have figured things out in time for the playoffs.
Andrew Luck has been spectacular
this season, even if his statistics don’t reflect it. He has cut down on his
mistakes, going from the league leaders in interceptions to one of the safest
passers in the league. His numbers have been hurt by the catastrophe of an offensive
line in front of him and the struggles of the wide receiver corps since Reggie
Wayne was lost to a torn ACL. They appear to have finally figured out that
Donald Brown is a better running back than Trent Richardson, which can only
help their offense. The struggles they will have will come on the defensive
side of the ball. Robert Mathis had a fantastic season, but he accounted
for almost as many sacks as the rest of the team combined. Vontae Davis has
alternated between dominance and incompetence at cornerback, and there aren’t
many other players on this unit capable of playing at an elite level. To win
the Super Bowl, this team is going to need plenty of good fortune and several
spectacular performances from Luck.
Favorable Matchup: San
Diego Chargers
The Chargers won this game
earlier in the year thanks to an unusually strong performance from their
defense and some questionable play calling from Indianapolis’s coaches. Since then San Diego has shown that
their defense is not as good as it performed in that game, and the Colts have
realized that they cannot rely on a consistent running game. This time around,
they won’t waste series running the ball three times up the middle. They will
put it on the arm of Luck, and he will tear apart San Diego’s defense. Even against the Colts’
mediocre receiving corps the Chargers’ secondary will not be able to keep up. San Diego might be able
to turn it into a shootout, but the Colts will win by virtue of making fewer
mistakes than their opposition. No team had fewer turnovers this year than Indianapolis.
Unfavorable Matchup: Denver
Broncos
Unlike the aforementioned game
against the Chargers, Indianapolis actually beat
Denver when
they played earlier this year. They did so by pressuring the Broncos’ receivers
and disrupting the timing enough to get to the quarterback. They will not be
able to repeat this performance. Even as they played Denver was making adjustments to their
offensive scheme, running pick plays and crossing routes to free their
receivers from tight coverage. It was too little too late at that point, but
since then Denverhas mastered an offense to counter physical cornerbacks. Had that game gone
another quarter, they would likely have come back and emerged victorious.
Kansas
City Chiefs (11-5)
Kansas City put together an incredible start
to the season, but they fell off once they were forced to face quality
competitions. During their 9-0 start to the season the best teams they beat
were Dallas and Philadelphia before they moved Nick
Foles into the starting lineup. Since that point the Chiefs have gone 2-5 with
their only victories over the awful Redskins and Raiders. That stretch included
a home loss to the team they are facing on the road in the first round, the
Indianapolis Colts.
This team has been inconsistent across the board throughout the year. Early on their defense was dominant, led by explosive
starts from Dontari Poe and Justin Houston. Poe has slowed down as the season
has gone on, and Houston
has missed several games with injury. Their entire defense has suffered as a
result. They surrendered more than forty points in a loss to the Chargers and
more than thirty in a victory over the Raiders. Fortunately for them, their
offense has kicked it up after an uninspiring start to the season. They still
aren’t a particularly dangerous unit—Alex Smith has a habit of neutralizing any
sort of outside passing game—but Jamaal Charles is one of the most dangerous
playmakers in the playoffs. More importantly, they have sustained success in
two critical areas: turnovers and special teams. As long as they are taking
care of the ball and winning the field position battle, they have a chance to
beat nearly any opponent.
Favorable Matchup: Cincinnati
Bengals
The Chiefs’ defense will bring
the worst of Dalton
to the forefront. As good as Cincinnati’s
offensive line is, they will not be able to hold back the Chiefs’ suddenly
healthy pass rush. Andre Smith is one of the better right tackles in the
league, but he has rarely had to face a player with the speed and pass rush
skills of Houston.
Pressure will come at Dalton from all sides, and
this will lead to turnovers as it did in their final game against Baltimore. The Bengals
have survived through terrible games from their quarterback this season—notably
in their wins over the Browns and the Ravens—but they have only done so thanks
to a defense that has created mistakes in their opposition to match their own
offense’s. Kansas City
doesn’t make those mistakes, and they know how to capitalize when their
opponent does.
Unfavorable Matchup: Denver
Broncos
It isn’t just bad fortune that
cost the Chiefs both their games against Denver
this season. Kansas City does not match up well against their division rival. To
beat the Broncos a team needs to attack their secondary with an explosive
passing game, and with Alex Smith at quarterback the Chiefs simply do not have
that in their offense. With Denver’s
injuries up front they might be able to run the ball better than in their
earlier matchups, but they still don’t have any way to attack their opponent’s
greatest weakness. More troubling is on the defensive side of the ball, where
they struggled to get any semblance of a pass rush against Manning in either of
their games. They have the size and depth at cornerback to challenge Denver’s receivers, but
unless their pass rush steps up they won’t be able to stick with the receivers
long enough to stop the lethal Broncos’ offense.
San
Diego Chargers (9-7)
With six weeks left in the season
I attempted to project the AFC Playoff race. I had San Diego as the second least likely of the
contenders to make the playoffs, behind the Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Jets,
Browns, Titans, and Raiders. I’m sorry. But to my credit, the Chargers have
pulled off an incredible streak to make it here. They won games in Kansas City and Denver,
handled the Giants and the Raiders, and held on against the Chiefs’ B-Team in
Week 17. They deserve credit for proving me wrong and for winning the games
they needed to in order to make the playoffs. All that said, they are the worst
team left alive.
Mike McCoy deserves Coach of the Year consideration
for what he’s done to turn around Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ offense.
Coming into the season this unit appeared ready for another catastrophe, and
when they lost their top two wide receivers for the season things only looked
to get worse. But led by what has probably been the best season of
Rivers’s career, they put together a surprisingly effective offense. Their
patchwork line has held together remarkably well, and they have gotten
unexpected contributions from free agent Danny Woodhead and rookie Keenan
Allen. Ryan Mathews has had a quietly good season, and Antonio Gates managed to
play all 16 games for the first time in four years. But problems remain in
their defense, an inconsistent unit that has actually put together a couple
solid outings in victories over Denver and Indianapolis. The rest of
the year they have been a disaster, and there is no reason to have faith that
they can sustain defensive success for a four game Super Bowl run.
Favorable Matchup: Cincinnati
Bengals
The Chargers face an uphill
battle having to play in Cincinnati
this weekend, but they have a roster capable of knocking off the Bengals. Their
roster has the balance required to attack the banged up Cincinnati defense. When healthy, this
defense is capable of creating matchup problems with elite players like Atkins
and Hall. With them out, they have to rely more on scheme than on talent. They
can no longer drop into coverage and stop the run. They have to choose one or
the other, and against a versatile team like San Diego this will cause problems. Mathews
will have a big day on the ground, and the efficiency of Rivers will prevent
this defense from creating easy scores for their offense.
Unfavorable Matchup: Kansas
City Chiefs
This is a strange choice,
considering the Chargers beat Kansas
City both times they played this season. But one of
those victories was over a Chiefs team that played only a single regular
starter, a victory that required a couple questionable calls, a missed 41 yard
field goal, and a fake punt in overtime. In their first game San Diego won in a shootout, the only team
this year to score more than forty points against the Chiefs’ defense. The same
problem appeared in both games: the Chargers cannot slow down Kansas City’s offense. Alex Smith or Chase
Daniel, Jamaal Charles or Knile Davis, Brandon Albert or Donald Stephenson. If San Diego cannot contain
this offense, I can’t believe they will be able to repeat their performance
against this defense. Their offensive line will struggle with the pass rush,
and their wide receivers won’t be able to beat Kansas City’s physical cornerbacks. If they
allow this game to become a shootout again, they will not be able to keep up.
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