Championship Rematches

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Week 2: Seattle beat San Francisco 29-3
Week 14: San Francisco beat Seattle 19-17

These two teams split the series this year, but in the eyes of most Seattle came out on top. Their win was much more convincing, and they also claimed the division. This game is in Seattle, a notoriously difficult place to play, and many expect the Seahawks to win handily as they've done the last two times these two met in Seattle. But San Francisco has been hot lately, winning their last eight. Based on what I saw in the tape, this should be a very competitive matchup.

The first game between these teams was closer than the final score (and most people’s memories) would indicate. San Francisco had an early opportunity to put points on the board, but they were held to nothing thanks to an interception on a tipped pass in the endzone. Their defense did their part, and Seattle was held off the board until a second quarter safety. Set up by a Kaepernick fumble, the Seahawks added a field goal to take a 5-0 halftime lead. Their offense came out hot in the second half, managing a touchdown on each of their first two drives while the 49ers were held to a field goal in between. Once the large lead was built, Kaepernick was forced to attack downfield into the strength of Seattle’s defense. This led to a pair of interceptions and to the final score of 29-3.

The second game started much in the same way, with the 49ers taking an early drive deep into Seahawks’ territory. This time they managed to come away with a field goal, followed by another after a short field set up by a blocked punt. At that point the Seahawks’ offense got going, scoring two touchdowns thanks to a few deep pass plays. The 49ers got another field goal in between, and just before the end of the half they managed to overcome their red zone woes and score a touchdown to take a 16-14 lead. The two teams traded defensive stands for most of the second half, until a big punt return set up Seattle in range for a field goal in the fourth quarter. The 49ers responded on the next drive with a 51 yard run by Frank Gore to get them in field goal range. They were able to run down the clock after that and kick the field goal to earn a 19-17 victory.

Why the Seahawks will win again:

A major factor in the first two games was San Francisco’s inability to convert red zone opportunities, something they have struggled with all season. The Seahawks allowed only one touchdown over two games and forced two Kaepernick interceptions inside the ten yardline. The 49ers have had similar troubles in several games this season, usually whenever put up against an elite defense. Last week against the Panthers they had to settle for a pair of field goals early on before managing two touchdowns later in the game. Seattle should be able to make at least one crucial stop in this game.

Seattle has one of the best past defenses of all time, and they match up particularly well against San Francisco’s wide receivers. The Seahawks field a secondary populated by large, physical players who prefer to challenge receivers at the line in order to disrupt the timing of the offense. The best way to beat such defenders is to run past them with quick, speedy wide receivers who can slip jams and beat the coverage over the top. The 49ers don’t have anybody like that. Their receivers get open through a mix of guile and power, overwhelming the smaller cornerbacks they usually face. Against a team that can match them physically as Seattle can, these receivers will likely struggle. In the first matchup between these teams the 49ers’ receiving corps combined for 6 catches for 52 yards, most of which came from receivers who will not play in this game. Anquan Boldin struggled in particular when matched up against Richard Sherman, catching only a single pass for six yards.

Seattle has struggled on the offensive side of the ball recently, but they should be able to get back on track against San Francisco. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t been particularly effective against them this season, but he has picked up his productivity in the red zone, scoring four touchdowns in their two games. He is more useful as a decoy in the play action game, where his presence has allowed Wilson to escape the pocket and find receivers open downfield. In their two games this season Wilson completed several big passes off play action, including a couple where he managed to reach the edge on a bootleg action. Against a vulnerable 49ers’ secondary, they should be able to find that same success this weekend.

Why the 49ers will win again:

The way to beat Seattle is to run the ball and stop the run, and those are the strengths of the 49ers’ team. They struggled some in these areas early in the year, leading to their first defeat at the hands of the Seahawks. But in recent weeks they have gotten much better , as evidenced by their success in the second matchup. In that game they held Lynch to 72 yards while Gore had 110 on only 17 carries. They let Wilson only scramble once for two yards while Kaepernick accounted for 31 with his legs. They should be able to attack with a diverse, powerful running game, overwhelming Seattle’s athleticism with brute force. This offense is best when they rely on their offensive line to push the defense around, as they did during their Week 14 matchup.

Their passing offense struggled mightily during the first game, but it rebounded nicely the second time around. Much of this was due to the return of Michael Crabtree to their lineup. Not only is Crabtree more gifted physically than any of his replacements, he has a much better feel for how to elude coverage and get open. When Kaepernick breaks from the pocket and improvises, Crabtree knows exactly where to go to present himself as an available target. Given enough time, any secondary will break down, and Kaepernick will likely have a great deal of time in this game. Seattle wasn’t able to generate much pressure in either of the games against San Francisco, even though the 49ers played without Mike Iupati for an extended stretch in their second matchup. Last week Carolina—a team with a better pass rush than the Seahawks—did next to nothing when matched up against San Francisco’s offensive line. If Kaepernick has the patience, he can hold the ball long enough for his receivers to create separation.

Most importantly of all, San Francisco will not repeat the mistakes they made in the first two games. They turned the ball over six times in their two games against Seattle, compared to twelve in their other fourteen games. This is one of the most careful teams with the ball, and they will do a better job of holding onto it this weekend. They also need to take better advantage of the opportunities given to them. They can’t afford to turn the ball over in the red zone as they did in each game, and they can’t afford to get conservative like they did during the second game. Both these can be fixed by coaching, and Jim Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the league. He won’t allow his players to make the same mistakes they did before.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos 
Week 12: New England beat Denver 34-31

The first matchup between these two teams was strange, and it is difficult to say what will carry over to this game and what will not. There are dozens of players who either didn’t play in the first game and will play on Sunday or won’t play Sunday but played the first time around. There has been as much turnover on these teams since the middle of this season as most teams go through between seasons. In addition to this, the conditions of their first game were highly unusual. The wind was a major factor, strong enough that Bill Belichick elected to choose which end of the field to defend rather than taking the ball first in overtime. Both teams struggled to hold onto the football, fumbling eleven times total between them. All of these limit the effectiveness of trying to use the last game to predict what is to come, but I’ll do my best to identify the things that should happen again and the things that should be different this time around.

The game started as poorly as New England could have imagined. They fumbled the ball on each of their first three drives, leading to seventeen Broncos’ points. Denver added another touchdown to their lead thanks to a powerful rushing attack. But the game changed completely just before the half, as the Patriots were punting from deep in their own end of the field. Trindon Holliday muffed the punt, and the Patriots recovered with time for one final play. They were not able to score before the half, but two things did happen as a result. Holliday was pulled off punt returns and replaced with the supposedly sure handed Wes Welker, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was injured on the Patriots’ Hail Mary that followed their recovery. In the second half the Patriots came out attacking the new weakness in the Broncos’ secondary and scored a quick touchdown. Denver responded with a nice drive that ended when Montee Ball fumbled, setting up another Patriots’ touchdown. The Patriots scored early in the fourth quarter to take the lead and added a field goal on their next series. The Broncos then drove the length of the field for a tying touchdown to send the game to overtime. Ultimately, the Manning-Brady matchup was decided on a play in which neither player was on the field. The Patriots recovered a muffed punt deep Broncos’ territory thanks to a poor decision by Welker, setting them up for the winning field goal.

Why the Patriots will win:

New England should be able to score on Denver’s defense. In the first game between these teams they got off to a slow start due to several turnovers, mistakes they specialize in avoiding. They had three turnovers on their first three possessions and only seventeen on all other possessions during the regular season. Their offense failed to score in the first half of this game, but this wasn’t due to ineffectiveness. They had success on the ground, running for over 100 yards on the day, and they should have even more success this time around. The Broncos are without run stuffing defensive linemen Derek Wolfe and Kevin Vickerson, and the Patriots have discovered a powerful running game behind LeGarette Blount, who was benched in the first game after fumbling. And as a change of pace the Patriots have Shane Vereen, one of the best receiving backs in the league. The first game they played was only his second week back from an extended injury, but whenever he ran a route out of the backfield the Broncos’ linebackers were incapable of keeping up with him.

The running game is not the only area where New England will benefit from Denver’s injuries. They will also be helped greatly in the passing game. Much of their success the first time around came when Quentin Jammer was forced onto the field in relief of Rodgers-Cromartie. Rodgers-Cromartie is back healthy, but the Broncos have lost their other starting cornerback Chris Harris, forcing Jammer into the lineup. He was brutally terrible against the Chargers last weekend, and the Patriots should be able to exploit him. New England is also excited not to have to see Von Miller, who was an absolute nightmare for them the first time they played. He managed two sacks, several more quarterback hits, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery he returned for a touchdown. Without him the Broncos will struggle to get pressure on Brady, giving New England’s wide receivers opportunities to get open.

On the defensive side of the ball, it’s harder to find things for the Patriots to be excited about. Though they held the Broncos to only a touchdown after halftime, it wasn’t as if they were throttling them defensively. Denver just wasn't able to finish off the drives they had. But there were several things the Patriots did well that could carry over into this game. Aqib Talib played excellent across from Demaryius Thomal all day, matching his physicality at the line and holding him to less than fifty yards receiving. Talib has struggled with injuries during the second half of the season, but against the Broncos he looked like the player he was at the beginning of the year. New England was also able to apply consistent pressure on Manning throughout the day. Defensive end is the one position on defense that has stayed fairly healthy for them, and they should be able to generate that sort of pressure again.

Why the Broncos will win:

Denver has been ravaged by injuries on defense, but the Patriots have suffered almost as badly on offense. The loss of Rob Gronkowski fundamentally alters the way the schemes they have to play. Gronkowski was a nightmare in the middle of the field during the first game between these teams, something the Broncos will not have to worry about in this game. Injuries to Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson have hurt New England’s ability to attack the edge of the secondary, the weakness of the Broncos’ defense. Quentin Jammer is terrible, but he may be able to handle the mediocrity the Patriots will put across from him. To attack through the passing game, the Patriots will need production from their slot receivers, who will spend much of the game covered by Champ Bailey. Bailey missed much of the season, including the game against the Patriots, and they have transitioned him to a role in the slot. He has held up well in that position so far, and he should be able to hold Julius Edelman and Danny Amendola in check.

Even if they can only somewhat slow New England’s offense, it will likely be enough. I have to believe that Denver is going to tremendous success on offense. Their running game was dominant the first time around, gaining four of five yards with ease even when their offense was struggling to score points. The Patriots were utterly unwilling to drop an extra safety into the box, and the interior of the Broncos’ offensive line absolutely manhandled the six man fronts being shown to them. The Broncos ended up with 280 rushing yards on the day, their top three backs all averaging more than five yards per carry. And now that the Patriots are without Brandon Spikes, one of their top run defenders, they should have even fewer problems running against this New England front.

The obvious way for the Patriots to counteract this is to drop a safety into the box, but that creates a whole set of new problems in the passing game. Denver has one of the best pass offenses in NFL history, but they were limited somewhat the first time these two teams played. The wind was a major factor, and neither offense was able to find success with anything other than arrows, crossing routes, and passes up the seam. This wasn’t an issue for New England, as their offense is built primarily around these routes. Denver has a much more dangerous deep passing attack, a part of their offense that was neutralized the first time around. If New England brings a safety down to stop the run, Denver will hit a couple passes over the top on them. They will be helped even more by the return of Julius Thomas, who missed the first game between these teams. Either on the ground or through the air, Denver is going to put up a lot of points in this game.