Super Bowl Preview Part One

Since the season began the Broncos and the Seahawks have been the two best teams in the league. It was never a certainty that both would reach this point, but this is one of those rare years in which we get to see the top two teams face off to decide who will become the Super Bowl Champion. I can’t recall the last time I was this excited for a Super Bowl, or the last time I genuinely had no idea who the better team was. These two squads are evenly matched—which means this game will likely be a blowout for one side or the other—and I expect it to be a fantastic football game.

During the postseason I have been going back to the film from the regular season and breaking down prior matchups between the teams facing each other. I learned some new things about the teams, shared that information with my minute but loyal readership, and even got a couple of my predictions right along the way. Unfortunately, Denver and Seattle haven’t played this season (unless you are interested in hearing about what they did in the preseason, in which case you should read this article by Chase Stuart.) So instead I broke these teams down unit by unit, found a comparable unit elsewhere in the league, and examined how these teams did against these similar opponents. Today I have broken down what I expect to see from Seattle’s offense and Denver’s defense.

Seahawks Offense

Broncos Defensive Line

Despite being ravaged by injury, Denver’s defensive line has been the strongest part of their defense the past two weeks. Their two best players for most of the season were Kevin Vickerson and Derek Wolfe, but both have been placed on injured reserve. In their absence Shaun Phillips and Terrance Knighton have stepped up their games. Phillips is no longer the dangerous pass rusher he was in San Diego, but he has developed as a force against the run. He holds the edge well and forces the running backs to cut inside into the waiting arms of Knighton, who was an absolute nightmare against New England. This unit still lacks an elite pass rusher without Von Miller, but they do a good job containing a running game.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The defensive line of Tampa Bay is built around Gerald McCoy, one of the best defensive tackles in the league. He is as good a run defender as Denver’s Knighton and a much better pass rusher. They struggle to generate a pass rush from the edge, but Adrian Clayborn contains well against the run and doesn’t let the quarterback escape from the pocket. Neither Denver nor Tampa Bay blitzes frequency, but both run a number of stunts with their defensive lines. Seattle played Tampa Bay in Week 9 this year, eventually winning the game 27-24 in overtime.

Against Tampa Bay’s defensive line the Seahawks were content to leave their offensive tackles on islands against the pass rushers. They preferred to double team one of the defensive tackles and send their tight ends out on routes rather than bothering with protecting their quarterback from the mediocre edge pass rush. Against Denver we will likely see a similar strategy, leaving Phillips and Robert Ayers to their offensive tackles while their three interior linemen work together to contain the defensive tackles. While Tampa Bay’s defensive ends did not present much of a pass rush, the discipline they played with kept Seattle from running as many bootlegs as they would normally like. Denver’s coaches will stress that they can’t let Wilson outside, and Seattle will have to throw more passes from the pocket.

In the running game, Seattle used Robert Turbin more against Tampa Bay than in almost any other game this season. Because Tampa Bay is so strong against the interior ran, Seattle ran more tosses and sweeps to the outside, runs better suited for Turbin’s style. Because of the stakes of the game this Sunday the Seahawks may prefer to load up on their best back, but don’t be surprised to see Turbin take a couple tosses to the edge.

Broncos Linebackers

Without Von Miller the Broncos’ linebacker corps is nothing special. Their three starters—Nate Irving, Wesley Woodyard, and Danny Trevathan—are reliable but unspectacular players. They aren’t particularly athletic, and they rarely make game altering plays. The success they have comes because they play smart, disciplined football. They fill their lanes well, and they rarely get out of position. They are decent when asked to drop back into zone coverage, but they struggle when forced to play man to man against a tight end or a running back out of the backfield. They don’t come on blitzes very often and have only 4.5 sacks between them.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Tennessee Titans

The Titans put out a similarly uninspiring group of linebackers. They start journeyman veteran Moise Fokou at middle linebacker with young, undeveloped players Akeem Ayers and Zach Brown on either side of him. Brown has more potential than any of the linebackers on Denver, but he didn’t develop much in his second season after a stellar first year. Ayers was taken early in the second round three years ago, but he hasn’t become anything more than a reliable starter. These three manned the middle of an improved defense but were helped a great deal by the strength of the front four. The Seahawks played the Titans in Week 6 and won 20-13.

Tennessee held up against the run well enough when they played Seattle, but most of that was due to their defensive front. As they will likely do against Denver, the Seahawks spent many of their plays double teaming the defensive linemen instead of sending blockers downfield to handle a linebacker. This allowed the Titans’ linebackers to flow and make plays in the hole, and they managed to contain Marshawn Lynch. The linebackers were much more vulnerable in the passing game. Seattle doesn’t have the tight ends capable of beating linebackers, but they did everything they could to get their running backs and wide receivers matched up against less athletic defenders. They motioned Turbin out of the backfield a couple times. They ran quick pick plays that forced Tennessee to switch on the coverage. They tried to hit slants and curls in beneath their zone drops. And for the most part, these strategies worked. These might be more difficult to pull off against Denver, as the Broncos’ linebackers are more disciplined in their coverage, but they still lack the athleticism to keep up with Seattle’s backs and wide receivers. If Wilson sees those matchups, he will exploit them.

Broncos Secondary

Denver’s secondary has been up and down this year. They have suffered a number of serious injuries (noticing a trend?) and their best players are inconsistent. They played most of the season without Champ Bailey, and since he’s returned they have moved him into a role as a nickel cornerback in the slot. They will be without starters Rahim Moore and Chris Harris, replaced by Mike Adams and Tony Carter. Both are good players, but they aren’t at the same level as the two they are replacing. The best player Denver can put out in their secondary is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, a free agent they signed from Philadelphia. He’s been up and down this year, but when he’s playing well he can shut down a receiver.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ secondary bears a lot of resemblance to the beaten up version of the Broncos’. Their safeties are capable of making occasional plays, but they are just as likely to be exposed in coverage. At cornerback they have an athletically gifted but inconsistent player in Vontae Davis who bears a great deal of resemblance to Rodgers-Cromartie. Besides that there is not much to like in either secondary. Neither team has great depth, and when they are forced to play their third or fourth cornerback they have a major problem. The Colts play more press coverage than Denver does, but both teams play primarily man coverage with a single deep safety. The Seahawks played the Colts in Week 5 and lost 34-28.

Against the Colts the Seahawks used all the typical strategies to beat man coverage. They lined up in bunch formations and ran crossing routes and double moves, finding mixed success. Indianapolis’s best cornerbacks were able to keep up with Seattle’s receivers on most of their routes. Where Seattle found their most offensive success was with Wilson as a scrambler. Because all their cornerbacks were in man coverage, Indianapolis was not able to contain Wilson when he got out of the pocket. Seattle exploited this by running bootlegs to give him the scrambling opportunity, but it may be difficult for them to get him out of the pocket against Denver’s disciplined defense.

Against the Colts the Seahawks spent a lot of time in four and five wide receiver sets, and they will likely do the same against Denver on Sunday. They did this to force the Colts to play nickel and dime defenses, exposing their lack of depth. If they do this against Denver they can get them to play Quentin Jammer, who has been a gaping hole in their coverage whenever he’s been on the field this year. These multi receiver sets also allowed them to spread the field and empty the box, opening even more lanes for Wilson to run through. From these spread formations they ran several plays with four verticals, giving Wilson his choice of single coverage deep down the field. As long as they can protect him, they should be able to hit at least one deep pass this Sunday.

Broncos Defense

Seahawks Quarterback

Russell Wilson has been tagged a ‘mobile quarterback’ but that isn’t entirely accurate. He isn’t a player like Colin Kaepernick or Robert Griffin III, both of whom rely on their running abilities as an essential option in their games. Wilson is more like Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, pocket passers with the ability to scramble if there is a lane available. He is smart in the way he runs, and he is a better passer than he is a ball carrier. His mobility is more often used behind the line to escape from pressure. In the pocket he is effective as well, but he is most dangerous when he is able to improvise.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Indianapolis Colts

I’ve already made the comparison between Wilson and Luck so I’ll stick with it. Both are highly mobile quarterbacks who excel within the pocket. They use their running abilities as a final option when the play breaks down, though Seattle calls several designed quarterback runs each game. But for both their real strength is their ability to throw the ball. They have the arm strength and the accuracy to make every throw on the field, and they have the intelligence to make the right decisions. Both threw more than twenty touchdowns and fewer than ten interceptions this season. Luck is physically larger than Wilson, but they are both built solidly enough to absorb hits and keep plays alive. They came into the league in the same year, and they will remain among the top of the league at the quarterback position for the next decade. The Broncos played the Colts in Week 7 and lost 39-33.

Denver found mixed success containing Luck’s mobility. Several times he was able to slip out of the pocket, and he ran a couple wide open bootlegs to the right. He also escaped on one notable third down scramble to pick up twelve yards and the first down. They will have even more troubles against Seattle due to Wilson’s ability to keep the ball on designed running plays. There were a few plays in which they managed to collapse the offensive line and trap him inside the pocket. They didn’t bring many blitzes, but they were able to get decent pressure thanks to Indianapolis’s dismal offensive line. They may not be able to count on the same sort of pass rush from their front four against Seattle.

Against the Colts the Broncos displayed a much more varied coverage scheme than during their other games. Usually they are content to play man coverage with a single safety deep, and that was still their most frequent and best coverage against Indianapolis. But they also played a good deal of zone, often keeping two safeties deep. The two deep zone they played likely had as much to do with Indianapolis’s abysmal running game as it did with Luck, and they will probably only keep one safety back against Seattle. I still expect them to mix in quite a bit of zone. Against intelligent quarterbacks like Wilson and Luck it is essential to present varied looks. They are smart enough to know which receivers will become open against which looks, and if they see the same coverage every play they will eventually pick it to pieces. Denver tried to prevent this by mixing up their coverages and disguising their presnap looks, often rolling a safety up into the box when the ball was snapped or dropping their corners from the line all the way back to a deep zone. Necessary as these changes were, they weakened Denver’s defense. With the stakes of this game it wouldn’t be surprising if they decided to trust their players over their scheme and stick to man coverage for most of the game.

Seahawks Running Backs

The Seahawks are one of the few teams in the league that still uses a single feature back. Lynch is a big, physical runner who specializes in making one cut and getting up the field. He breaks arm tackles and runs over undersized defenders. Even with his size and strength he has the sort of speed to break away from defenders if he reaches the second level, though he has trouble changing direction when forced to run horizontally. They run him primarily behind a zone running scheme and occasionally in a read option set. They don’t use a fullback often, and Lynch isn’t much of a threat as a receiver out of the backfield.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Washington Redskins

The Redskins use a similar one back system with second year player Alfred Morris. Morris has a bit more speed than Lynch and isn’t used as often as a receiver, but he is the same physical type of runner. Washington uses a zone scheme much like Seattle’s, though they incorporate a blocking back more often. Both teams frequently run the read option, though Seattle did it more often and with better success. Denver played Washington in Week 8 and won 45-21.

Washington’s formidable running game did not scare Denver. They were content to stay in their base alignment for most of the game, rarely rolling down a safety to stop the run. Even when Washington went into a loaded backfield with a tailback and two fullbacks beside the quarterback, Denver still didn’t bring an extra man into the box. They didn’t need to either, considering how effectively they were beating the Redskins’ offensive line. Their linebackers sometimes struggled to get through the wash of the zone blocking scheme, but their defensive line was absolutely dominant. Their ends kept backside contain to close off cutback lanes, and their tackles were able to beat blockers in one on one matchups. Seattle’s offensive line is very similar to Washington’s, and even with Denver’s injuries they should be able to win in the trenches.

The Broncos have struggled all year covering backs in the passing game, and against Washington they didn’t even bother to try. Morris was open on several occasions, but Griffin rarely looked his way. Lynch isn’t a great receiver out of the backfield, but Wilson is excellent at getting through his reads and finding the open man. If Denver doesn’t cover Lynch better than they covered Morris, Seattle will be able to pick up big plays through checkdowns. Another concern comes against play action passes. Denver’s safeties weren’t too concerned with playing the run, and Washington wasn’t able to get anything over the top. But the Broncos’ linebackers were regularly trapped by play action, opening up holes in their coverage. Denver will likely be willing to leave these vulnerabilities in order to stop the run, but they might want to pay more attention to receivers on quick screens. Washington was able to trap the linebackers inside with play action and toss the ball out to a receiver on the edge, forcing Denver’s cornerbacks to beat blockers and make a play in space. If Seattle can get the ball into Percy Harvin’s hands in these situations, Denver will be in trouble.

Seahawks Offensive Line

Seattle’s offensive line is the weakness of their offense. They have two good players in Russell Okung and Max Unger, though both have struggled with injuries this season. They’re healthy now, but holes remain across the rest of their line. Their guards are vulnerable, and they’ve begun rotating several options at left guard during the playoffs in a desperate attempt to find someone competent. San Francisco dominated them up front during the Championship Round thanks to their ability to run through Seattle’s guards at will. All that said, the unit as a whole is stronger than the sum of its parts. They are capable of blocking serviceably in both the running and the passing game, and if they play well Seattle’s offense can be hard to slow down.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Kansas City Chiefs

Much like Seattle’s, Kansas City’s offensive line is better than it looks on paper. This year they had only one starter who could reasonably be considered above average, left tackle Brandon Albert. First overall pick Eric Fisher still shows promise, but he was disappointing as their starting right tackle. Their guards and center were nothing special, but altogether this unit supported one of the strongest running games in the league. Like Seattle they run primarily a zone blocking scheme mixed with occasional power and trap plays. Denver beat Kansas City in Week 11 by a score of 27-17 and in Week 13 by a score of 35-28.

Denver was not aggressive in attacking Kansas City’s offensive line. They rarely blitzed, and they only occasionally ran stunts with their front four. They were much more concerned with standing up against the run than they were getting after the passer. They used the normal techniques for slowing down a zone running game. Their ends didn’t come too far up field or crash too hard, slow playing it from the backside to eliminate cutback lanes. Their tackles didn’t try to penetrate upfield, instead engaging with the offensive lineman in front of them and holding their ground. These were all smart decisions and worked in slowing down Kansas City’s zone attack, but they left the Broncos weak in other areas. When Kansas City ran more traditional blocking schemes they were able to knock Denver’s defenders off the line of scrimmage, and when they dropped back to pass Denver was not able to create much of a pass rush.

Despite these problems, expect to see the Broncos play with a similar philosophy against the Seahawks. They need to stop Lynch at the line of scrimmage, and they can’t afford to give him the sort of lanes to the second level that can result from aggressive penetration. As weak as their pass rush was against Kansas City, they did a good job containing Alex Smith inside the pocket. Wilson is more athletic than Smith, but if they remained disciplined they should be able to keep him corralled. They will still want to generate occasional pressure, and they will end up blitzing Seattle more than they did Kansas City. Their defense has gotten more aggressive since Miller was lost to injury, and they will likely continue that philosophy through the Super Bowl.

Seahawks Wide Receivers

Doug Baldwin complained last week about his unit being termed ‘pedestrian’ but there is no better word to describe Seattle’s receiving corps. Their two best players—Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin—missed most of the season due to injuries, leaving a collection of mediocre options in their places. Golden Tate has some nice athleticism and decent skills with the ball in his hands, but he doesn’t have the straightline speed or the technique to create consistent separation. Baldwin knows how to find holes in a defense when his quarterback escapes the pocket, but he rarely gets open in the immediate flow of play. The wild card in this game will be Harvin, who has been cleared to play after his concussion in the Divisional Round. It is difficult to know what speed he’ll be playing at and how he’ll be integrated with the offense after missing so much time, but he is the sort of difference maker at receiver that they otherwise lack.

2013 Opponent Comparison: New England Patriots

The comparisons between Seattle’s wide receivers and New England’s are easy to make. Like Seattle their best two healthy wide receivers lack elite size or athleticism. Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman both excel as tertiary options in the slot but were forced to take on a brunt of the offensive load due to injuries this season. Rob Gronkowski played the first time Denver faced New England but was out injured during the rematch. He is a difference maker in the same vein as Harvin, and his absence completely changed New England’s scheme. Without these tight ends the Patriots’ only other receiving options were a pair of raw but athletic receivers in Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins, similar players to Seattle’s Jermaine Kearse. Denver lost to New England 34-31 in Week 12 and beat them 26-16 in the Championship Round.

It was clear that New England’s receivers didn’t intimidate Denver, and Seattle’s likely won’t either. They trusted all their corners in man coverage and kept only a single safety deep behind them. They didn’t worry about being beaten deep, not even when they brought their cornerbacks up to press at the line. The safeties played very aggressive against the run, sometimes getting out of position on play action passes. In a couple of instances New England was able to get receivers open deep, but Tom Brady wasn’t able to hit these opportunities when he had them. The Broncos will want to be more careful about giving these opportunities to Wilson, especially if he is able to extend the play with his legs. Denver’s linebackers stayed in a zone look for most of the game, hanging out in the middle of the field to take away hooks and crossing routes to ease the burden on the cornerbacks playing man on the outside. Seattle can minimize their ability to do this by spreading the field and clearing out the players in the box.

Conclusions

Seattle’s offense and Denver’s defense are the two worst units that will play in this game, but they are just as important to the outcome. Injuries have left Denver’s defense lacking in depth, and Seattle will try to exploit this by spreading the field with three or four wide receivers. Ideally this should give them matchups that even their subpar receivers can win and open up running lanes in the middle for Lynch and Wilson. Denver’s only real counter is the strength of their defensive line, and they are going to need another monster performance from Knighton if they hope to contain the Seahawks.

The two key players to watch are Percy Harvin and Shaun Phillips. Harvin has a grand total of four receptions on the season, but if he is healthy he is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the league. I can think of only one player in the league who is more dangerous in open space (LeSean McCoy) and a spread attack will provide him with plenty of open space to work in. For the Broncos, Phillips needs to play a strong, disciplined game. Since Miller went out they have put the burden of their pass rush and their rush defense squarely on him, and thus far he has held up well. He needs to come after Wilson hard on pass plays without giving him lanes to escape from the pocket. He needs to keep backside discipline on running plays while still keeping an eye out for the bootleg. If Wilson can get around the edge on this defense, he will tear them apart with his arm and with his legs. This is a tremendous burden to place on Phillips, but he might be up to it.