Rematch Weekend

This weekend in the Divisional Round, three of the four matchups we’ll see are rematches of games played earlier in the season. Rematches are a great deal of fun for nerds like me, people who love to see how each team’s strategies have evolved between the games. What does the losing team change to try to reverse the outcome, and how does the winning team try to preempt these new strategies? The chess game of football takes on a whole new dimension between teams that have seen each other before.

I went back and watched the games that took place earlier this season. Below I’ve broken them down, why one team won and the other didn’t. Based on the last game, I have tried to forecast what might happen this weekend. I’ve listed all the reasons the winning team should feel confident they can repeat their performance, as well as the reasons why the losing team can hope to turn it around.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

Week 13: Seattle beat New Orleans 34-7

The first contest between these two teams was a blowout on Monday Night Football, and it served as the best example of two of the most overblown narratives of the year: New Orleans’s struggles on the road and Seattle’s dominance at home. Since then we’ve seen Seattle lose to the Cardinals at home and New Orleans win a playoff game in Philadelphia. The narratives have lost their strength, but expect to hear plenty about them during this game.

What happened in this game went far beyond a home team beating a road team. The Saints’ offense was shut down by Seattle’s impressive pass defense, held under 200 yards of total offense. Seattle jumped to an early lead thanks to a couple long drives and a defensive touchdown. The score was 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and 27-7 at halftime. Seattle’s offense slowed down in the second half, but the Saints were not able to mount any sort of comeback.

Why it will end the same:

The first game was hyped as a matchup between the league’s best pass defense and one of the league’s best pass offenses, and Seattle showed that their pass defense was capable of shutting down New Orleans’s offense. It started up front with consistent pressure on Drew Brees in the pocket. This is one area where playing at home definitely helped. Because CenturyLink Field is designed to reflect crowd noise towards the playing field, it creates an incredibly loud environment that makes it challenging for the offense to operate. Opposing teams are forced to use a silent count, and that results in a slower start to the play than under normal circumstances. Both offense and defense have to wait until they see the ball snapped, giving pass rushers an extra second to get after the quarterback. The game against Seattle was the first time the Saints’ deficiencies along the offensive line became apparent, and they haven’t been able to fix them yet. Both St. Louis and Carolina tore their offensive line apart late in the season, and it would not be surprising if Seattle managed to do the same in this game.

Seattle’s offense managed to put up 34 points thanks to the brilliance of Russell Wilson. With both his legs and his arm Wilson carved apart the Saints’ defense, throwing for 310 yards and rushing for another 47. A number of his runs came on scrambles, but early in the game the Seahawks found success running the read option. The Saints’ outside linebackers crashed down hard after the running back, leaving one of their inside linebackers responsible for switching out and following the quarterback. This is a common approach to stopping the read option, and there was nothing wrong with their scheme that they could conceivably fix. The problem was that the Saints’ linebackers do not have the athleticism to chase down Wilson on the perimeter. When he kept the ball, he was able to outrun the linebackers to the edge and gain big yardage. Once Seattle had established a lead they stopped running this play to protect their quarterback, but in a tight game they will be able to exploit this weakness in New Orleans’s defense.

Why it will end differently:

The key to the first game was big plays. Seattle made them, and New Orleans didn’t. There was more than a little luck involved in this. A pass rusher forced a fumble by Brees, and the ball bounced right into the arms of Michael Bennett who returned it for a touchdown. The Seahawks scored later on a pass that deflected off one receiver into the hands of another. But beyond luck, there were several major opportunities New Orleans left on the field. Jimmy Graham dropped a couple catchable balls, and Corey White couldn’t hold on to an interception on a drive that eventually resulted in the Seahawks’ first offensive touchdown. If they make some of these early plays, they could have prevented Seattle from getting out to a big early lead. Had they been able to keep the game close, they could have done a better job building a run game to attack the weakness of the Seahawks’ defense. Instead they were forced to throw the ball to try to catch up, exactly what Seattle wanted them to do.

The key to slowing down the Seahawks’ offense is discipline, something the Saints were lacking the first time they played. Most of the damage done by Wilson happened when he escaped the pocket to his right, opportunities given to him by a pass rush that did not properly contain. When they held him in the pocket or forced him to run left, they were able to get enough pressure to disrupt his throws. This week I expect to see much more discipline from the edge rushers coming after Wilson. If they can limit him in the passing game, they can stop the Seahawks’ offense. Marshawn Lynch was ineffective in the first game behind an offensive line that showed no ability to get push on the Saints’ defensive front. That should not change this time around.

Offensively it all comes down to whether they can protect Brees. Seattle’s defense is known for their physical man coverage, but in the first game New Orleans was able to design formations and plays to force them into a great deal of zone. With the suspensions in their secondary, expect to see Seattle play even more zone coverage this time around. Their athleticism and length means that the windows between their zones are still very tight, but Brees has the accuracy to hit these windows if he is given time. In the first game he was never able to be comfortable enough in the pocket to exploit these zones, but if given the opportunity he can throw the ball successfully against this defense.

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers

Week 10: Carolina beat San Francisco 10-9

These two teams have a great deal in common. They are both led by young, mobile quarterbacks who can throw the ball well enough to sustain a moderately successful passing game. San Francisco has better wide receivers, but Carolina has a better quarterback. Their true strengths are in the running game, both on offense and on defense. These are probably the two best front sevens in the league (maybe throw Kansas City into the discussion) and they generate enough of a pass rush to cover up weaknesses in the secondary. As similar as these teams are, it is no surprise that their first matchup was so close.

San Francisco was clearly the better team in the first half, but they were unable to capitalize on their opportunities. Twice they drove into Carolina territory, but both times they had to settle for long field goals. An interception set them up with a short field, but they made the mistake of kicking a field goal on fourth and one from the two yardline. Carolina scored on the ensuing drive to make it a 9-7 game at halftime, and in the second half their defense went to work. Colin Kaepernick was atrocious, throwing for under 100 yards on the day. Cam Newton wasn’t much better, but they managed to add a fourth quarter field goal after a punt return set them up with good field position.

Why it will end the same:

Carolina’s defensive line won the game the first time, and they are capable of doing it again. Kaepernick struggled because of the pressure they put on him, and their pass rush has only gotten better as the season has progressed. Even if they can’t replicate the same performance from their first game, they will be able to slow down the 49ers’ passing offense. The defensive line had a similar role in limiting Kaepernick’s effectiveness as a runner. He broke free once for a sixteen yard scramble up the middle, and that accounted for all of his rushing yards on the day.

Carolina won the first game thanks to several crucial stops on their own end of the field that kept the score manageable until their offense got going. The Panthers ranked third in the league this year in opponent red zone scoring percentage, an area the 49ers have struggled in lately. If they can continue to force Phil Dawson onto the field, they can make things a lot easier for their offense. At the end of the game the Panthers were beginning to establish some rhythm offensively, their receivers creating separation between them and the defenders that wasn’t there earlier in the game. It is difficult to know if this will carry over, but they definitely figured out something that was working against San Francisco’s defense.

Even though they won, the Panthers have to be looking back on this game and thinking about all the opportunities they left on the field. Their kicker missed a makeable field goal and their wide receivers dropped several crucial passes. With their backs against the goal line, they forced what appeared to be a Vernon Davis fumble only for the referees to rule it an incomplete pass. They caught plenty of good breaks as well, but if they make the plays they should the game doesn’t end as close as it did.

Why it will end differently:

Colin Kaepernick cannot possibly play this poorly again. His performance wasn’t as bad as his final statistics, but it was still pretty miserable. He spent most of the day checking down to running backs out of the backfield, even when he had receivers open down the field. Late in the game he became frustrated and started forcing the ball to covered receivers down the field, missing several open in the intermediate range. This was an unfortunate result of a heavy pass rush and the absences of his top receivers. Michael Crabtree had not yet returned from his Achilles injury, and Vernon Davis left with a concussion in the second quarter. With these weapons back, he should be able to spread the ball more evenly across the field. His line needs to do a better job keeping the pass rush off of him, and they have been playing better of late.

It will be interesting to see how Carolina adjusts to the returns of Crabtree and Davis. In the first game they stacked their defense against the run, keeping seven or eight defenders in the box on nearly every play. Even when the 49ers tried to spread the field with their formation the Panthers kept their players between the tackles, often leaving the slot receiver completely uncovered. If they don’t adjust, San Francisco will exploit these vulnerabilities. If they are forced to pull players out of the box, the 49ers will run the ball right at them. Even with the stacked defenses San Francisco was fairly effective running the football, Frank Gore averaging over five yards a carry.

Even though they lost the game, San Francisco’s defense turned in a spectacular performance the first time around. They didn’t stack the box against the run like the Panthers did, but they were just as effective slowing down their opponent’s rushing attack. Their run defense has been playing even better of late, and it would be a surprise if Carolina can manage more than 100 yards on the ground. Against the pass they played excellent coverage through the first half, but their best success came when they were able to pressure Newton. When he was able to establish a rhythm he would find and hit open receivers, but he could do nothing when they got someone in his face. Their pass rush should be even better now that Aldon Smith has moved back into a major role. He played only sparingly in their earlier game against Carolina, his first after returning from rehab. Carolina’s offensive line is very good, but San Francisco should be able to apply enough pressure to disrupt their offense. They held the Panthers to ten points in their first contest, and they are very capable of doing it again.

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Week 10: Denver beat San Diego 28-20

Week 15: San Diego beat Denver 27-20

Unlike in the other games, these two teams have faced each other twice this season. They split their two games, with each team winning during their visit to the other team’s stadium. On paper this would seem to be a bad matchup for San Diego. They have the worst defense of the remaining eight teams, and they are going up against one of the best offenses in NFL history. But in their two games earlier this season they held Denver under 30 points each time, something that only happened to the Broncos in one other game on the season.

Denver won their first contest thanks to some missed opportunities by the Chargers. They moved the ball into Broncos’ territory four times in the first half but only came away with six points. On the last drive of the half, down 14-6 at the time, they were in the red zone and had the opportunity to close it to a one score game. Instead they were held out of the endzone and forced to attempt a field goal, which they missed. Denver drove down and scored a touchdown before the half. When they scored again on the first possession of the second half, they stretched their lead to 28-6. San Diego held them scoreless the rest of the game, but the Broncos were able to sustain drives well enough to keep the Chargers from catching up.

The Broncos’ offense got off to another hot start in the second game, but this time San Diego managed to keep pace. During the second and the third quarter Denver did absolutely nothing on offense, mostly thanks to several time consuming drives by the Chargers. They opened up a fourteen point lead before Denver’s offense could start clicking again, and they hung on thanks to another couple time sustaining drives and a late field goal set up by an interception on a deflected Peyton Manning pass.

Why San Diego will win again:

Their defense stepped up as well, but most of San Diego’s success in the second game was due to improvement by their offense. A team like the Broncos is going to score points, and the best way to keep them contained is to keep their offense off the field. The Chargers are ideally set up to do this, as they led the NFL in time of possession this season. The key to this strategy is the ability to sustain drives by running the ball. In both games against the Broncos, the Chargers were able to find success running at one of the better rush defenses in the league this season. The second time around they were aided by the absences of Derek Wolfe and Kevin Vickerson, Vickerson is on injured reserve, and even if Wolfe is able to return this weekend San Diego has shown that they can run on Denver’s defense at full strength.

Another crucial injury to Denver will help San Diego in this game. In the previous two matchups Denver was not able to generate much of a pass rush, with most of their sacks coming due to their tight coverage. That will be even more challenging now that they are without Von Miller. His absence will make it much easier for San Diego to attack through the air, which they had much more success with during the second game than the first. Part of that was due to different route designs—they beat the Broncos’ man coverage with several crossing routes—but it was also due to an increase in Philip Rivers’s trust of his wide receivers. When they were not open in the first game he would swallow the ball and take a sack, but in the second he was much more willing to challenge tight coverage and let his receivers make a play. Keenan Allen and Virgil Green are both able to win contested balls, and even Vincent Brown made some nice plays during the Chargers’ victory.

On defense, they just have to continue to weather the storm. It is unlikely they will be able to hold Denver under 30 points again, but they still have to prevent them from establishing any sort of rhythm. Denver had little success running the football in their first two matchups, but they won’t give up trying because of that. San Diego will still have to keep the box loaded and attack downhill whenever Knowshon Moreno is in the game. Their defensive front has played better of late, generating pressure last week against a Bengals offensive line that is significantly better than what they will see in Denver.

Why Denver will win again:

The key to this game is pass protection. San Diego held Denver’s offense in check this season because of the pressure they were able to generate on Manning, which is a strange thing to say about the 32^nd ranked defense in adjusted sack rate going against the top rated offense in that category. There is no reason San Diego should be able to get pressure on Manning, and it is very likely they will be unable to repeat the performances from earlier this year. In those games they sent a variety of exotic blitzes mixed amongst straight four man rushes, generating enough pressure to force Manning to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible. They mixed up the coverage behind it, but they primarily lined up with their cornerbacks tight to the line. This strengthened their run defense and allowed them to close down the quick passing opportunities. But if the Broncos’ line can give Manning time to hold the ball, he will be able to find his receivers running open through the large and numerous holes in the back half of the Chargers’ secondary.

As important as it is for San Diego to keep their offense on the field, you can imagine how crucial it is for Denver’s defense to get off it. In the second half of the second game they were able to stack the line against the run, minimizing the damage done by San Diego’s rushing attack. The Chargers’ wide receivers have shown no ability to create separation against Denver’s cornerbacks in a man scheme, but the Broncos might want to throw in some more zone looks to discourage crossing routes. More importantly, their defensive backs need to make plays on the ball when it is in the air. If they can win some of these battles and create a turnover or two, they will bring their offense back out onto the field and turn this game into a rout.