Analytics of Offensive Injuries

Very often when we think of injuries we only consider what the absence of that player means in terms of the absence of their talent. It makes sense that installing a lesser player into that position would hinder a team’s performances. But we often overlook the changes that need made in a team’s scheme with the loss of the player, as well as the changes by the opposition.

In this piece I’ll go through several teams that have lost key offensive pieces at different positions and analyze the tape to try to determine how they have tried to compensate for their losses and how defenses have responded. I’ll start with the Falcons, who have suffered multiple injuries at the wide receiver position. From there I’ll move on to the losses the Broncos have suffered on their offensive line. After that, I’ll discuss on the Buccaneers and the loss of Doug Martin at Running Back. I’ll conclude with the most critical position, the quarterback, and how the injury to Aaron Rodgers has changed the Packers’ offense.

Atlanta Falcons

Losses: Julio Jones, Roddy White

Schematically the Falcons have done very little to adjust to the losses at the wide receiver position. They’ve bumped Harry Douglas from his slot role to the outside, but he still runs essentially the same patterns. Their offense is slightly more reliant on crossing routes and curls as opposed to the deeper routes run along the sideline by Jones and White.

Of greater impact have been the changes in the scheme they have faced from the opposition. With both receivers healthy last year it was almost impossible to match up with the Falcons in a man scheme. Teams played primarily Cover-2 with the cornerbacks holding to underneath zones. With proper timing, Matt Ryan was able to pick these zones apart. Teams were hesitant to risk blitzes that would leave them exposed in man coverage, such as in the play in the image below. As we see, the Cowboys have sent six rushers at Matt Ryan. But at the bottom of the field, Julio Jones has already beaten the man coverage and is open for a big completion down the sideline.

The defensive schemes faced by the Falcons have changed greatly since the injuries. Teams now play primarily Cover-1, trusting their corners to match up man to man with Atlanta’s mediocre receivers. As shown below, this allows them to send additional rushers without fear of a big play over the top. In their week 8 matchup, the Cardinals sent six after Matt Ryan. They left a safety deep and a linebacker in a zone in the middle, but the other three in coverage matched up man to man with the receivers. Unlike before, Ryan had no receiver he trusted to beat man coverage. He was forced to throw into a congested area, leading to an interception by the safety.

Denver Broncos:

Losses: Ryan Clady, Dan Koppen, JD Walton, Chris Kuper

Statistically, it doesn’t appear that the Broncos have lost anything due to injuries. Only the Lions have surrendered fewer sacks this year, and their rushing attack is working at about the same level as last season. But these are merely the results of the adjustments they have made to counteract the losses they have suffered. In reality, their offensive line play has fallen off noticeably due to the injuries.

As one would expect with a Peyton Manning led team, a sort of chess match has evolved between their offense and the defenses they have faced. Because of the injuries to the Broncos’ line, teams have begun blitzing Manning with increased frequency. Last year the Broncos were able to handle almost any blitz thrown at them, but this year a well coordinated rush can disrupt Manning. With this increase in blitzes has come an increase in man coverage, and Denver has responded by integrating a number of pick plays and crossing routes into their offense. Defenses have responded by trying to be more physical at the line, and the teams that have succeeded have managed to beat the Broncos. A secondary only needs to hold up for a second or two before the blitz can disrupt Manning.

Denver’s deep passing game has been limited this year, but not due to Peyton Manning. His throws from sideline to sideline make it clear his arm is still capable of making every throw. The change has been to their scheme, the result of the injuries on their line. Last year they frequently ran route combinations with every receiver running deep down the field, but this year there is almost always at least one receiver running across the middle where Manning can easily find and dump it off to him. This evolution of their offense has been aided by changes in personnel. The addition of Wes Welker has given them a more dangerous option in the short passing game than Brandon Stokley, and the emergence of Julius Thomas has opened up the middle of the field more. Knowshon Moreno has become a better receiving option, and they are running many more screen plays than they did last year. The diversity lost by the down the field attack has been offset by the versatility of their short range game. At the same time, their offense would be even deadlier if they had a healthy line they could trust to protect Manning.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Losses: Doug Martin, Mike James

Doug Martin was off to a disappointing start to the season when he tore his labrum in week 8 and was placed on injured reserve. At that time he was averaging 3.6 yards per carry with only one touchdown. Even so, his loss was a devastating blow to a struggling offense. The fact that they have managed to win three straight after losing their first eight is remarkable, and it has occurred due as much to adjustments in scheme as improvement from the players.

Martin’s struggles at the beginning of the season can be partially blamed on the scheme he was put into. The Buccaneers run a heavy power game with guards pulling around on nearly every rushing play. While Martin is capable of running with power, he is more suited to a one cut style zone rushing attack. Often the team would try to compromise by giving it to him on an outside run and trying to pull a lineman all the way to the edge, usually slowing the play and allowing the defense to disrupt it. With the powerful backs that came into replace Martin they had to make no such compromise. Most of their runs now take place between the tackles, leaving short, efficient pulls for their guards. They have also integrated a fullback into their offense. After using one for less than a quarter of their plays earlier this year, there is now a fullback on the field on more than half of their offensive snaps. This has only aided them in their efforts to jam the ball down the middle of the field. Defenses have made few adjustments to this new style. They have actually backed off some from the line, giving the Buccaneers looks at six man fronts they never saw with Martin in the backfield. This has also contributed to the uptick in their running game.

One notable way in which Tampa Bay has been hurt by the injury is their play action game. Early in the season they faced quite a few looks like the one displayed below, wide open receivers running through the gap left by the linebackers who were slow to drop. Better quarterback play would discourage this, but even the combo of Josh Freeman and Mike Glennon could take advantage of these aggressive responses.

The Buccaneers’ run game has improved since the injury, but does that mean that Martin isn’t as good as their other running backs? In one simple, clear word: No. Doug Martin is an incredibly gifted running back, and their running game will be at its best if they can mold their system around him. Good coaches know how to get the best out of the players they are given. We also cannot ignore the improvements made by their offensive line over the past few weeks. They deserve as much credit for the turnaround as anyone.

Green Bay Packers

Losses: Aaron Rodgers, Seneca Wallace

The quarterback is the most irreplaceable player in the game, so it’s not surprising that a loss at that position results in the most drastic change in scheme. We have witnessed a particularly strong example of the importance of the quarterback this year, with Green Bay losing one of the best passers in the game. With Aaron Rodgers they are among the best teams in the league, but without him they are among the worst. Beyond the loss of his remarkable skillset, what has changed to send them into an 0-4-1 tailspin in games without him?

Without Aaron Rodgers the Packers have transitioned to a run heavy team. While the addition of Eddie Lacy makes this a more tenable option than in past years, the run game is still clearly not the strength of their attack. The success they had early on was largely a result of the schemes set in place against them. With Rodgers at quarterback they faced defensive fronts with six, and occasionally even five, defenders in the box, even in short yardage and red zone situations. Rodgers was smart enough to recognize these situations and to check to a running play when it was advantageous. If they had a running play called and the defense was lined up to stop it, he would flip the ball out on a quick screen to a wide receiver. They rarely ran the ball into a defense set up to stop them. The same cannot be said of their new offense. Lacy now runs into boxes containing seven or eight men, and they haven't given their new quarterbacks the same freedom to throw quick screens. Since Rodgers went out, Lacy’s yards per carry have fallen by nearly a full yard.

As you would imagine, the changes are even more drastic in the passing game. The Packers’ pass offense is built on a series of precise timing routes. Without Rodgers under center, those have disappeared from their gameplan. They no longer even attempt back shoulder throws, and they rarely send receivers out solely to block for the swing route behind them. They have also greatly simplified the reads they ask their quarterback to make. Rodgers usually had five receivers to choose from, but with Tolzien and Flynn under center they usually keep two extra men in the backfield to block in order to prevent them from having to handle five separate options.

The notable difference in defensive schemes comes as a result of the loss of Rodgers’s mobility. Because of his ability to exploit a defense by moving out of the pocket or taking off downfield, defenses were forced to play much more zone than they would have liked. Even while blitzing, defenses remained stuck in sparse zone coverages. Now that Rodgers is out, teams are able to man up against the Packers receivers without worrying that the quarterback will take off while their backs are turned. With good corner play and a strong pass rush, teams can now shut down the Packers passing attack. When Rodgers was at quarterback, there was often nothing a defense could do.