How The Chiefs Turned It Around. And What Teams Can Do So Next Year.

Ten weeks into the regular season, the Kansas City Chiefs are the lone remaining undefeated team. At this point last season they were 1-8 and on their way to the first overall draft pick. Clearly a great deal has changed over the past year, as evidenced by the massive turnover of their starting roster.

	2012 Starter	2013 Starter
Left Tackle	Brandon Albert	Brandon Albert
Left Guard	Jeff Allen	Jeff Allen
Center	Ryan Lilja	Rodney Hudson
Right Guard	Jon Asamoah	Jon Asamoah
Right Tackle	Eric Winston	Eric Fisher
Running Back	Jamaal Charles	Jamaal Charles
Wide Receiver	Dwayne Bowe	Dwayne Bowe
Wide Receiver	Jonathan Baldwin	Donnie Avery
Tight End	Tony Moeaki	Anthony Fasano
Fullback	Nate Eachus	Anthony Sherman
Quarterback	Matt Cassel	Alex Smith
Defensive End	Tyson Jackson	Tyson Jackson
Nose Tackle	Dontari Poe	Dontari Poe
Defensive End	Ropati Pitoitua	Mike Devito
Outside Linebacker	Tamba Hali	Tamba Hali
Inside Linebacker	Derrick Johnson	Derrick Johnson
Inside Linebacker	Jovan Belcher	Akeem Jordan
Outside Linebacker	Justin Houston	Justin Houston
Cornerback	Brandon Flowers	Brandon Flowers
Safety	Eric Berry	Eric Berry
Safety	Kendrick Lewis	Kendrick Lewis
Cornerback	Javier Arenas	Sean Smith
Punter	Dustin Colquitt	Dustin Colquitt
Kicker	Ryan Succop	Ryan Succop
Long Snapper	Thomas Gafford	Thomas Gafford

Okay, what the hell? They changed a total of nine starters during the offseason, mostly at positions that were in flux during last year anyway. The core of their team is the same, yet somehow they’ve gone from worst to first. How have they done that? It turns out there are three main keys to their turnaround, which I’ll cover briefly. Following that, I’ll look at the teams currently struggling and try to figure out if they have hope of a similar turnaround next year.

1) Upgrades at Head Coach and Quarterback

This is the most obvious, so I’ll start with it. When a team struggles the two most obvious faces of that struggle are the Head Coach and the Quarterback, and last year Kansas City really doubled down on incompetence at these positions. Romeo Crennel has a career record of 28-55, and last year Matt Cassel threw twice as many interceptions as touchdowns before being benched for the equally ineffective Brady Quinn.

As was justified, the Chiefs moved on in both positions during the offseason. They replaced Crennel with Andy Reid and sent a second round pick to San Francisco to make Alex Smith their starting quarterback. The former is as sexy a name as was available (I am not going to lower myself to making a fat joke here) and he has lived up to his reputation thus far. Most notably, he’s made certain Jamaal Charles, their best offensive player, is heavily involved. Last year he had nine games with fewer than 20 touches. This year he has only one so far.

Reid’s influence is even more obvious when looking at the coaches tape. Kansas City is often accused of running a vanilla offense, and while that is fair in many ways, it doesn’t account for just how mind numbing their offense was last year. Under Crennel’s staff they ran the ball out of an almost exclusively zone attack. This year under Reid they still run a great deal of zone, but they have augmented it with isos, traps, and even the occasional read option. In the passing game their routes are much better designed, using dummy receivers to open up the primary receiver.

Alex Smith has had almost as much effect in improving their offense. His primary influence has been security with the ball, throwing only four interceptions thus far on the season. But he’s also added to the offense with an underrated aspect of his game: his mobility. Behind a shaky offensive line, his ability to scramble has allowed them to stay on schedule and keep a rhythm going, helping keep Charles in the game. While questions remain about Smith—he has effectively neutralized Dwayne Bowe and he has shown no ability to take over a game if absolutely necessary—it is clear that he has been a principal reason for their improvement.

2) Development of Young Talent

With the success of rookies in recent years it has become easy to dismiss players after an unsuccessful first few seasons. So many have entered the league as stars that we sometimes forget they are still improving players adjusting to the NFL. Sometimes all a team needs in order to improve is a cast of young players ready to step up their game.

Three major improvements stand out on Kansas City’s defense, and I’ll start with the least significant of them. In 2008 and 2009 Kansas City used back to back top five selections on defensive linemen. One, Glenn Dorsey, was a bust and is no longer with the team. The other was Tyson Jackson, and even though he’s been a consistent starter he has been justifiably termed a disappointment. And while it’s true that he will likely never live up to his draft position, he has become a competent starter this season. He holds his ground better against blocks, which is really all that is asked of a 3-4 defensive end. He’s been a solid part of the best defensive front seven in the NFL.

A more notable improvement comes from Justin Houston. A third round pick in 2011, he showed the potential to become an elite pass rusher, making the Pro Bowl as an alternate last year. This season he has fully lived up to that potential, currently sitting second in the league with 11 sacks. While he’s cooled off some from his torrid start (7.5 sacks in his first three games) he remains a terrifying edge rusher opposite Tamba Hali. He’s a major part of the reason they have jumped from bottom three in the league in sacks and interceptions to top five in both.

The most improved player on the team (and possibly in the league) is Dontari Poe, last year’s first round pick. While he started every game last season at nose tackle, he was little more than a large, athletic space eater. This year he has evolved into arguably the most dominant nose tackle in the league. His sack numbers have dropped off as the season has gone along, with only 1 in his past six games after 3.5 in his first three. But he has been a dominant, destructive force in every game he has played. Over the course of the offseason he developed a stunning ability to shed blockers, allowing him to break away and make plays against the run and in the pass rush. He already has more tackles than he did his entire rookie season. At no point can an offensive lineman be confident he is in control of Poe. At any moment he can use his strength and athleticism to toss a lineman aside and chase down a ball carrier. If I had to select one player responsible for the defense’s turnaround, it would be Poe. Of course, he has had plenty of help, as I’ll cover in the next section.

3) Have Good Players

Many people laughed when the worst team in the league last year had six players selected to the Pro Bowl, yet no one could identify a player that wasn’t worthy of the honor. The clearest part of Kansas City’s turnaround is that they were not truly a 2-14 team. Their roster has been loaded with talent over the past few years, with easily identifiable names like Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers, and Derrick Johnson. That the team finished so poorly last year is a testament to poor coaching and lack of effort.

Again I have to give credit to Andy Reid. I’ve already covered his increased and varied usage of Jamaal Charles, but his contribution to the defense needs to be mentioned as well. Specifically, his lack of contribution. In his time with Philadelphia, Reid’s team ran a 4-3 with defensive ends lined up in a “Wide 9” on the distant ends of the line, relying on the linebackers to cover the gaps left in the running game. Many coaches (cough, cough, Mike Shanahan) would insist on carrying their old defense to their new team even if it didn’t fit the personnel. Reid recognized that his team was built to run a 3-4, and he let them keep things the same in order to maximize the bountiful talent available on the roster.

Now that we understand how the Chiefs have done it, what teams have hope for the coming year? While there will probably not be any turnarounds as drastic, there is plenty of potential among the lower teams. For simplicity’s sake, I’ll stick to those with three wins or fewer.

Oakland Raiders (3-6)

The Raiders are among the least likely to turn it around. They will likely carry over their coach and quarterback to next season, which isn’t necessarily a bad decision. It’s possible that Pryor could continue his development and improve the team. But the rest of the roster is as stripped bare as it could be. Their best players are veterans like Charles Woodson, players whose abilities will only continue to decline. They have little in the way of young talent and will need to restock through the draft.

Houston Texans (2-7)

The Texans have decent chances of rebounding. Their quarterback situation is definitely in flux, and Gary Kubiak’s job is not secure. Their team is loaded with talent, both young and experienced. If DeAndre Hopkins and Whitney Mercilus can development to complement existing stars such as Andre Johnson, Duane Brown, and JJ Watt, they can get back to the level they were at over the past few years.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)

Let me start by congratulating the Jaguars on their first win and wishing them many more over the rest of the season (Teddy Bridgewater will be a Viking.) Also, I would like to express my sympathy for how empty their hopes of improvement are. Gus Bradley will be back next year, but their quarterback position will definitely be upgraded. It’s hard to see how that will matter though, with how depressing the rest of their roster is. If Luke Joeckel can get healthy and Justin Blackmon can sober up, they might have some hope of building a strong foundation. But 6-10 is about the best they can hope for next year, even if they land Bridgewater.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

The Steelers will not be making changes at quarterback or head coach. Despite reports, they have no interest in trading Roethlisberger. And the team hasn’t fired a head coach since 1969. But that doesn’t mean they won’t be able to improve going into next season. Their offense is one of the youngest in the league, and there are several talented players on their defense waiting to develop. Some of the bigger name players won’t be back (Ryan Clark is gone and Brett Kiesel might follow) but they still have stars in Lawrence Timmons and Antonio Brown. If they can get a quality offensive tackle in the draft, they can put together a solid team next year.

Buffalo Bills (3-7)

The Bills improvement at quarterback next year will come through the development of EJ Manuel. Because of time he’s missed due to injury, it’s difficult to get an idea of how good he actually is. He’s had flashes of competence mixed with a few ugly performances. That’s the biggest question on a roster that otherwise looks promising. Robert Woods, Stephon Gilmore, and Kiko Alonso will only get better. Kyle Williams, Mario Williams, and CJ Spiller are already great. This team has the ability to turn it around, if Manuel can step up his game.

New York Giants (3-6)

The Giants don’t have great chances of improving next year, but there is still hope. That hope is Eli Manning, who has been through plenty of ups and downs over the course of his career. If he can return to the level he was at in 2011, they can push for the playoffs next year. At the same time, the rest of their roster is concerning. Their defense is a disaster, save possibly for Jason Pierre-Paul. Their offensive line has been getting steadily worse over the past five years, though there is some hope that Justin Pugh can take the next step and justify his draft position. But there is a genuine lack of talent on this team, something even a competent Eli can’t make up for.

Washington Redskins (3-6)

The Redskins offense will be fine. RGIII will be fine. That said, there is very little to like about this defense. Brian Orakpo has been disappointing coming off his injury and London Fletcher is going to retire one of these days, leaving Ryan Kerrigan as the only competent player on their defense. They had no first round pick last year and don’t have one next year. This team will suffer from a lack of talent for the next three or four years before they can build something reliable around RGIII.

Minnesota Vikings (2-7)

Call me a homer, but I think the Vikings can turn it around. Remember, this was a playoff team just last year. Leslie Frazier is probably gone after this season, and I don’t think next year’s starting quarterback is on their roster. They may lose Kevin Williams and Jared Allen, but they still have established stars in Adrian Peterson, John Sullivan, and Chad Greenway. In addition to that, they have had five first round picks over the past two years. That is a great deal of young talent ready to step in and become the foundation of a strong roster.

Atlanta Falcons (2-7)

Atlanta has been a disappointing team this year, but I don’t see a great deal that will change going into next season. Mike Smith is not in danger of losing his job, and Matt Ryan will be the starting quarterback for years to come. If they get Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Sean Weatherspoon healthy, they can return to a playoff level. At the same time, there isn’t a great deal of young talent to be excited about. They went all in when they gave up five picks for Julio Jones. Now it looks like their window is starting to close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

If there is a team that most resembles Kansas City from last year, it is the Buccaneers. This roster is loaded with talent, particularly on the defense. Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, and Darrelle Revis are already superstars. Young talent like Mark Barron and Doug Martin will continue to get better. Greg Schiano is gone after this year (probably should have been gone a month ago) but Mike Glennon has shown surprising promise since taking over as the starter. Whatever coach they bring in will likely want to move on from him, but he deserves a look as next year’s starter. With competent coaching and quarterback play, this can be a playoff contender.