Wednesday, November 27, 2013

The Most Wonderful Day of the Year



Thanksgiving has arrived, the day when all Americans gather at home to celebrate the wonder of three football games on a random Thursday in November. Truly, this is the greatest holiday. This year we’ve been given an intriguing set of games, with a pair of division matchups with playoff significance sandwiched around the Raiders-Cowboys contest everyone has been dying to see. Okay, fine, that one isn’t so great. But I’m still going to watch it, and you should too.

Whichever games you choose to watch, expect to see stars all over the field. Even without Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay still features Clay Matthews and Jordy Nelson. The Lions have Ndamukong Suh and Calvin Johnson. The Cowboys have Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware and the Raiders have…no one of note, really. But the Steelers are still led by Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, facing off against a Ravens team with Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata. These are players that are well known across the league by fans of every team. Which is why I decided not to write about them. Watch them, enjoy them, but keep your eyes on these six players who are still sliding by under the radar.

Green Bay Packers: Eddie Lacy, RB
Alright, the first player I’ll mention is one every football fan has already heard a great deal about. I’m sorry. There are more anonymous players later on, I promise. Anyway, Lacy isn’t really my first choice of Packers players to write about. I would have loved a chance to highlight Randall Cobb and the wonderful ways the Packers involve him in their offense, but he’s still not back from his broken leg. Instead I’ll focus on Lacy, part of a 3.5 man race for Offensive Rookie of the Year (Keenan Allen, Zac Stacy, and the potential for a late season push by Tavon Austin.)

I didn’t like Lacy when he was at Alabama or coming into the draft. I thought he was the least talented running back to start for Alabama in the past five years. I thought he was a product of that absurdly talented offensive line, and I expected him to wash out of the NFL as thoroughly as Mark Ingram. I’m not yet willing to admit that I was wrong, but yeah, I was probably wrong. In ten games so far this year Lacy has rushed for 806 yards and 6 touchdowns. His yards per carry number of 4.1 isn’t phenomenal, but it is serviceable. It’s definitely better than anything the Packers have offered in their running game since Ryan Grant fell apart in 2010.

His numbers may not make much of an impression, but watching him play certainly will. Unlike the other Alabama running backs that entered the league before him, he isn’t afraid to demonstrate his physicality. The viciousness with which he fights for every yard is reminiscent of Marshawn Lynch or Adrian Peterson, though he lacks the breakaway speed to develop into a runner of that caliber. He probably won’t ever be a consistent Pro Bowl player, but he will be a useful weapon for the Packers offense once Aaron Rodgers is healthy again.

Others to watch: David Bakhtiari, Mike Neal, Sam Shields

Detroit Lions: Offensive Line
The Lions have built a roster with a lot of big names and familiar faces. No one in the league dominates their respective position like Calvin Johnson, and Ndamukong Suh is the devastating/dirty player that everyone expects him to be. Reggie Bush has perfectly filled the role they imagined for him, and Matthew Stafford is having a career year. But if I had to choose any players to watch this Thursday, I would choose the five standing between him and the defense.

Coming into the season the Lions’ line was expected to be the weakness of their offense. Jeff Backus wasn’t their starting left tackle for the first time since 2000, and Gosder Cherilus left the team to be overpaid by the Colts. Riley Reiff showed promise after being taken in the first round last year, but there were people skeptical if he could step in as a starter at left tackle. After a brief cycle at right tackle, they appear to have settled on undrafted rookie LaAdrian Waddle next to rookie third round pick Larry Warford. An offensive line replacing three starters, two of them with rookies, is surely a recipe for disaster.

Yet so far this year they have surrendered only 14 sacks, fewest in the NFL. Part of the credit belongs to Matthew Stafford for getting the ball out of his hand quicker than any other quarterback in the league. At the same time, the offensive line hasn’t limited their ability to attack down the field. It will be intriguing to see what they can do against a versatile Packers pass rush that ate the Vikings alive for six sacks last weekend.

Others to watch: DeAndre Levy, Nick Fairley, Joseph Fauria

Oakland Raiders: Sio Moore, OLB
Trying to find something to like about this team was an arduous endeavor, requiring me to dig deep into their roster and watch quite a bit of Raiders game film. I went into it expecting I would have to write about a better known player, such as Lamarr Houston, but I was pleasantly surprised to find a budding star by the name of Sio Moore on their defense.

Moore is a rookie third round pick out of UConn playing at the Outside Linebacker position. He isn’t an every down player yet, but his workload has increased as the season has worn on. He normally lines up tight on the end of the line in their 3-4 alighment, primarily on the left side though he’ll frequently move to the right. He will also sometimes drop back into a more traditional linebacker position in a 4-3 alignment. His versatility allows the Oakland defense a great deal of variety in the looks and schemes they present.

Moore’s numbers aren’t flashy, but there is a lot to like about his game. He is incredibly strong with above average quickness on the pass rush. He pursues runners down the line, and he holds contain very well against the run. He is dangerous both as a pass rusher and a run defender, though he looks uncomfortable whenever he drops into coverage. But what he really brings to the team is something Oakland desperately needs: young talent on defense. They’ve managed to patch together a capable unit with veterans like Charles Woodson, Nick Roach, and Kevin Burnett, but they need more talented young players like Sio Moore if they want to build a quality defense in the years ahead.

Others to watch: Lamarr Houston, Denarius Moore, Charles Woodson (enjoy him while he’s still around)

Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo, QB

I know, Tony Romo isn't exactly under the radar, but hear me out. The Cowboys are the most overexposed and overhyped team in the league, and it’s a challenge to find anyone good the public isn’t already aware of. A healthy Sean Lee might have made the cut, and I was strongly tempted to go with Jason Hatcher, who has been phenomenal at defensive tackle this year. But in the end, I’m going to go with the player better known than anyone else on their roster.

Romo has experienced a wild career, going from one of the most underrated players in the NFL to one of the most overrated and now back to one of the most underrated. The truth, as always, is somewhere in between. He’s currently the butt of almost every quarterback joke in the league, right alongside the truly awful Mark Sanchez. But this is the classic case where a couple of plays have overshadowed the truth revealed by the data. Here are Romo’s stats from the past three years alongside a few other notable quarterbacks.

Tony Romo: 279 YPG, 65.5%, 7.6 YPA, 82 TD, 36 INT
Eli Manning: 271 YPG, 59.5%, 7.7 YPA, 69 TD, 48 INT
Joe Flacco: 236 YPG, 58.7%, 6.9 YPA, 56 TD, 36 INT
Matt Ryan: 280 YPG, 65.6%, 7.4 YPA, 79 TD, 38 INT
Ben Roethlisberger: 268 YPG, 63.6%, 7.6 YPA, 56 TD, 32 INT

It is fun to mock Tony Romo, but it’s clear that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now. He’s not elite on the level of Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees, but he is perfectly capable of leading a team on a deep playoff run. Watch Romo this Thursday with an open mind and a clear eye. You’ll see the throws he is capable of making. You’ll see how efficiently he runs their offense. You’ll see a quarterback capable of winning a Super Bowl.

Others to watch: Terrence Williams, Jason Hatcher, Brandon Carr

Pittsburgh Steelers: Cameron Heyward, DE
The Steelers are another team with a lot of known commodities, even if most of their best known players have been disappointments this season. Ike Taylor and Ryan Clark have been exposed repeatedly this year. Troy Polamalu is nowhere near the player he used to be. LaMarr Woodley has been miserable on the rare occasion he is actually healthy. What has kept their defense together has been stellar play by the always underrated Lawrence Timmons and the surprising development of Cameron Heyward.

Heyward was a late first round pick out of Ohio State in 2011, and over the first two years of his career he was seen as a disappointment. The defensive end position in the Steelers’ scheme is among the least glamorous in the league, but 26 tackles and 2.5 sacks over two seasons is failure by any standards. There were even calls for him to be cut during training camp, and he responded by living up to every expectation they had when they drafted him. By week four he had displaced starter Ziggy Hood, and it doesn’t appear likely that he will lose that role anytime soon.

Watch Heyward play and you’ll see everything you associate with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He is a big, nasty, physical defensive lineman who prefers to knock blockers over rather than trying to shoot around them. He is a smart player as well, his 5 pass deflections ranking third in the league among defensive linemen. At some point during Thursday night’s game he will make a play that jumps off the screen, but to truly appreciate his ability you need to watch him as often as possible. Whenever a run is stuffed behind the line, he is likely taking up blockers in the vicinity. Whenever an edge rusher grabs a sack, Heyward has likely pushed the offensive guard back to prevent the quarterback from stepping forward. This team’s turnaround would not have happened without his stellar play.

Others to watch: Lawrence Timmons, Antonio Brown, David DeCastro,

Baltimore Ravens: Daryl Smith, ILB
There isn’t a whole lot to be impressed with on this Ravens roster. Their offense has been terrible, with Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce competing to see who gain the fewest yards on each carry (Pierce currently leads 2.7 to Rice’s 2.9.) Flacco has been awful, and apart from Marshall Yanda their offensive line has been atrocious. On the defensive side Suggs and Ngata have been Suggs and Ngata while Jimmy Smith has stepped up in their secondary. But the real player to watch on this defense is the one who slid into Ray Lewis’s spot.

Daryl Smith has been a fantastic player in Jacksonville for years but has been ignored by the public mostly due to the fact that he played in Jacksonville. He was brought in by Baltimore as a free agent to take the spot vacated by the retirement of Ray Lewis, and unlike their attempt to replace Ed Reed with Michael Huff, his signing wasn’t a total disaster. He has been a solid, veteran presence for the Ravens on the interior of their defense. While no one will ever put Lewis and Smith in the same category in terms of career accomplishment, he has probably given more to their defense this year than Lewis did last year.

Smith’s play has fallen off against the run, but he is still a reliable tackler when meeting a runner in the open field. More than that, he is a valuable commodity in the NFL right now: a linebacker who isn’t a liability against the pass. He rarely rushes the passer or matches up man on man against a receiver, primarily dropping into a middle zone when he reads pass. His understanding of the passing game allows him to make incredibly precise drops into lanes that would be left open by most linebackers in the game. Expect Heath Miller to have a quiet game as Smith drops beneath nearly every seam route he runs.

Others to watch: Jimmy Smith, Marshall Yanda, Torrey Smith

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