Chaos in the AFC

We’re at the point in the season where the playoff picture starts to take shape, when the good teams distance themselves from those that have just been lucky so far. In the NFC the Seahawks and the Saints are asserting their dominance while the Vikings, Redskins, Rams, Falcons, and Buccaneers are essentially eliminated. In the AFC you have five teams with at least 7 wins in Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and New England. These five all look to be in excellent position to make the playoffs.

And then you have the sixth seed. In an earlier post I listed five teams I believed were in contention for this spot, and those teams have gone a combined 1-7 in the two weeks since then, with the only victory coming in a game where two of the teams were facing each other. If the season ended today, the New York Jets would be the final playoff team with a current record of 5-5. But the season doesn’t end today, and there are currently eight other teams within a game and a half of the Jets. Yes, nine of the sixteen teams in the AFC are jammed into a 1.5 game window fighting for the opportunity to stretch their season into January. Right now, none of these teams deserves to make the playoffs, but they have six more weeks to prove themselves. It’s possible one could make it was a final record of 8-8, but more likely we will see one team get hot and make it to 9-7. I’ve looked over the upcoming schedules, and I’ve organized teams from least likely to most likely in terms of playoff possibility.

Buffalo Bills (4-7)

Remaining Schedule: Bye, Atlanta, @Tampa Bay, @Jacksonville, Miami, @New England

Wow, that’s a lovely schedule. Atlanta may be playing as bad as any team in the league right now, and Tampa Bay and Jacksonville have been the jokes of the league the entire season. Miami is very beatable, and there’s a chance New England could have nothing to play for the last week of the year. At the same time, Buffalo is at the disadvantage of being the only team on this list to already have seven losses. This isn’t a very good team, and I don’t think they’ll win 5 straight.

San Diego Chargers (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: @Kansas City, Cincinnati, New York, @Denver, Oakland, Kansas City

Look upon that schedule and despair. To make it to nine wins the Chargers would have to win five games, meaning they could afford only one loss in their three remaining games against Kansas City and Denver. On the plus side, the Chargers fans won’t have to worry about watching their season die. Four of the remaining games are at home, meaning they’ll likely be blacked out in the San Diego area.

Tennessee Titans (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: @Oakland, @Indianapolis, @Denver, Arizona, @Jacksonville, Houston

After a promising start to the season, the Titans have lost five of their last six. And based on the schedule ahead, their losing ways will probably continue. Back to back road games against the Colts and the Broncos will destroy them, and following that with surprise NFC contender Arizona will probably vanquish any slim hopes that survived. Even the game against Jacksonville is not a clear victory, considering the Titans have lost two of the last three times the teams have faced each other.

Oakland Raiders (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: Tennessee, @Dallas, @Jets, Kansas City, @San Diego, Denver

The fact that this team with this roster remains relevant this late in the season has to earn Dennis Allen some Coach of the Year consideration. Coming into this season everyone saw this team on par with the abysmal Jaguars, and they have somehow managed to win four games. But don’t count on them continuing their mildly successful ways. This is still an untalented team with games against the two top dogs of the conference remaining on their schedule. Oakland won’t make the playoffs, but they’ve earned some consideration.

Cleveland Browns (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, @New England, Chicago, @Jets, @Pittsburgh

Following a close loss to the Chiefs and a victory over the Ravens, the Browns were a trendy pick to beat the Bengals last week and get back into the division race. They met those expectations with a performance in which they somehow allowed 31 points in the second quarter alone. Because they are the Browns, because they play in Cleveland, they will find a way to lose games. The schedule isn’t intimidating, but I don’t think this roster is capable of winning five of these games.

New York Jets (5-5)

Remaining Schedule: @Baltimore, Miami, Oakland, @Carolina, Cleveland, @Miami

The Jets have to be happy with where they’re sitting now. As one of two teams with five wins, they’re mathematically in the best shape of the contenders. The schedule ahead isn’t unpleasant, and five games against other AFC Wild Card contenders could help them thin the competition. At the same time, it’s difficult to have faith in a team that’s been blown out by the Bills and the Titans while surrendering 49 points to Andy Dalton and the Bengals. They’re bound to lay a couple more eggs over the rest of the season, and that will likely cost them a playoff spot.

Baltimore Ravens (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: Jets, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, @Detroit, New England, @Cincinnati

Last year the Ravens got hot during the playoffs and rode that to a Superbowl victory. There is no reason they can’t ride a similar streak into the postseason. Every remaining game is winnable, though their last three are a bit grim. Ray Rice played like a competent running back for the first time last week against the Bears, but it’s difficult to know if he will be able to repeat that success against a team with an actual run defense. If he is, their offense can start clicking again and they can pull out victories in two of the final three games. That may be all they need.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: @Cleveland, @Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati, @Green Bay, Cleveland

Here we have a team that is already hot, winning four of their last six, with a quarterback playing at a high level and a reasonable schedule ahead. Going to Lambeau isn’t appealing, but the rest of their games are definitely winnable. If they can manage a split against the Bengals and the Packers, they can win the rest of their games and slip into the playoffs as a surprise contender after everyone (including me) wrote them off. If both them and the Ravens can come out on top next week, it sets up an exciting elimination game scenario on Thanksgiving night.

Miami Dolphins (5-5)

Remaining Schedule: Carolina, @Jets, @Pittsburgh, New England, @Buffalo, Jets

Like the Jets, the Dolphins have the dual advantage of five wins already and a schedule of games against their competition. This is also a more talented team, as evidenced by wins over quality opponents in the Colts and the Bengals. They have two likely losses in the Panthers and the Patriots, but they can take care of business in the other four and make it to nine wins. They were my pick to make the playoffs two weeks ago, and I’ll stick with them.