Contenders
The top of the class.
These are teams that have a genuine chance of winning the Superbowl at the end
of the season. I won’t guarantee that the champion will be one of these six
teams, but I’d stake the chances at greater than 90 percent. These teams aren’t
perfect, but whatever holes they have are easily covered by the strengths of
their roster.
San Francisco 49ers (6-2)
The 49ers are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL. It’s
as if the general public forgot about them after a 1-2 start in which they got
blown out by both the Seahawks and the Colts (two teams that join them in the
contenders category.) But over their last five games they are 5-0 with an
average margin of victory of 22.6 points. They’re winning all the games they
should be winning and making sure these games are as boring as possible. After
some early season struggles Kaepernick has evened out his production, and the
return of Mario Manningham will only make things easier. It will be interesting
to see what they can get from Aldon Smith, but they will be in the thick of
things at the end of the year.
Seattle Seahawks (8-1)
The Seahawks are one of the most complete teams in the NFL.
That’s been true the entire season, and it’s not changing anytime soon.
However, they have struggled against subpar competition the last two weeks,
going down to the wire against the Rams and the Buccaneers. Their offensive
line is a mess right now, but it looks as if Russell Okung will return as the
starting left tackle within a few weeks. Their secondary is still terrifying,
and their front seven is above average. I don't see their recent troubles as reason for long term concern. They’ll either lock up a first round
bye or a playoff game against the winner of the NFC East, essentially the same
thing.
New Orleans Saints (6-2)
The last contender among the NFC teams is one that surprised
a lot of people, none more than me. The return of Sean Payton has helped iron
out the issues in their offense, but that wasn’t the trouble last year. Their
problem was their defense, which gave up more yardage than any other in
history. They made a few additions to their secondary and changed defensive
schemes, but no one expected to field a top ten defense. And yet that’s where
they are, with only Seattle, San
Francisco, and Carolina
giving up fewer yards in the NFC. They’ve done this by returning to the
aggressive, attacking style Gregg Williams gave them during their Superbowl
run. Last year they had the worst defense in NFL history and still competed for
a playoff spot. An average defense makes them Superbowl contenders.
Denver Broncos (7-1)
The Broncos currently have the NFL leader in Passing TDs,
Rushing TDs, Special Teams TDs, and two of the top 4 in Receiving TDs. In their
last game they scored 31 points in the fourth quarter alone. This is one of the
most dynamic offenses the NFL has ever seen, and even if they regress towards
the mean they will still be incredibly dangerous. The injury issues on their
offensive line haven’t slowed them down at all, thanks to Peyton Manning. For
similar reasons I don’t think the loss of John Fox will significantly affect
them, and it helps to have a quality replacement in Jack Del Rio. However,
questions remain about their defense. They have been stout against the run, but
against the pass they have routinely surrendered huge plays. Their pass rush
has been disappointing, but it should pick up as Von Miller is reintegrated
with their defense. This is not a bottom of the league unit, and they will not
continue to play in this way. Right now, if I had to pick one team as the
likely Superbowl Champions, I would choose Denver.
Indianapolis Colts (6-2)
Yet another team I was terribly wrong about. I’m still not
certain how the Colts continue to win, beyond the brilliance that is Andrew
Luck. Their defense has performed better than I expected, buoyed by a startling
performance from Robert Mathis, who leads the league with 11.5 sacks. On
offense they are carried by Andrew Luck, despite the absence of his best WR and
best TE. Trent Richardson has done very little for them, and it’s time to
become concerned with a player who has had only 2 carries of 20+ yards in his
career. Yet they continue to rely on a balanced attack rather than letting
their best player lead the team. Remember, this is a team that has already
beaten Denver, Seattle,
and San Francisco.
If they figure out how good Andrew Luck is, they can put up a real fight in the
playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
I saved the Chiefs for last in this category because they
were the team I was most reluctant to include. If they had lost even once, I
probably would have dropped them into the next category for one reason: Alex
Smith. Smith has been a huge piece of their resurgence this year (a topic I’ll
likely cover in more detail in the next couple weeks) but he remains the
limited QB he was in San Francisco,
the one Jim Harbaugh had no qualms about replacing midseason. He has been
everything they have asked him to be this year, but sooner or later they will
need to ask more of him. Can he exploit the weaknesses in Denver’s pass defense? Can he lead a
touchdown drive when they have no other options? He is a good quarterback, but
I don’t believe he is capable of playing at the elite level required of a
modern Superbowl winner. At the same time, it is impossible to leave the Chiefs
out of the contender category. Their defense is the best in the league and will
only continue to improve as young players like Dontari Poe and Justin Houston
develop.
Not Quite There
The next four teams
will all probably make the playoffs. They have talented rosters, and the road
ahead is not too challenging. But for one reason or another, they don’t appear
to be championship capable teams right now. That doesn’t mean they won’t be
hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season. But if they want any
hope, they need to make some changes.
Green Bay Packers (5-3)
Had I written this a week ago, the Packers would have been
in the category above. They have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL
with Pro Bowl caliber players at WR, QB, TE, OL, LB, and CB. Unfortunately,
they are also one of the most banged up teams in the league, struggling through
injuries at WR, QB, TE, OL, LB, and CB. Most notable among them is Aaron
Rodgers, who is likely out the next month with a fractured collarbone. But they
are also missing Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, Bryan Bulaga, Jermichael Finley,
and several other critical pieces. Many of these players will return before the
season ends, but it is impossible to say in what capacity they will be able to
contribute. This uncertainty bumps them down into the Not Quite There category,
but in this category they have the best chances of pulling things together.
Dallas Cowboys (5-4)
The Cowboys are one of the most interesting teams in the
NFL, bearing a roster loaded with talent that somehow disappoints every single
year without ever being truly terrible. For this reason they have a reputation
as being overrated, but there is no denying the talent present on the team.
Demarcus Ware and Jason Witten are future Hall of Famers beginning the decline
of their career, but Sean Lee and Dez Bryant are two of the best young players
in the NFL. Over the last five years Tony Romo has gone from the most overrated
QB in the league to the most underrated. There are definite holes in this
roster, notably on the OL and in the secondary, but they will likely win the
NFC East without trouble, barring a major run by Philadelphia
or Washington
(not out of the question. See both teams in the “I Have No Clue” section yesterday.)
Cincinnati Bengals (6-3)
The Bengals are looking at following the trail blazed by the
Houston Texans over the last five years. The talent across their roster is
enough to keep them in contention every year, and due to the pitiful
performances by the Steelers and the Ravens this year they look like locks to
win the AFC North. The loss of Geno Atkins is a huge deal—any team would have
trouble replacing one of the five best defensive players in the league—but what
will ultimately hold them back is the quarterback position. Andy Dalton is a
very similar player to what Matt Schaub has been for the Texans. He can put up
solid numbers in the regular season (aided by a transcendent talent at the receiver
position) but he is not capable of taking it to the next level. Game managers
used to be able to carry teams to the Superbowl, but times have changed. You
either need an elite QB or one capable of playing at an elite level, such as
Joe Flacco last year. Andy Dalton is not that player, and the Bengals will
likely never take the next step with him under center.
New England Patriots (7-2)
The Patriots are a difficult team to figure out. They’ve
lost twice this season, but until last week they never looked like a team worthy
of their record. The issues with integrating new wide receivers have been well
documented, but Tom Brady deserves an equal portion of the blame. He was not
the player we have grown accustomed to seeing. Their two best players on
defense have both gone down for the season, and the early season emergence of
Aqib Talib has been stymied by injuries. This looked like a team ready to fall
flat, perhaps only making the playoffs because of the weakness of their
division. And yet, no one was surprised when they exploded for 55 points
against the Steelers last week. No one will be surprised if they continue to
perform at this level through the rest of the season. A couple more weeks and
they could join the contenders.
Feeding Frenzy
I have listed ten
teams already that will make the playoffs. That means there are two slots left,
one in each conference. For these two slots there are a total of six teams with
a strong chance, though none of these teams is capable of winning a Superbowl
this season.
San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Welcome back to the NFL, Philip Rivers. After a couple years
of disappointment, most people assumed he would never reach an elite level of
production again. This season he has certainly proved everyone wrong. Thus far
he has been one of the four best QBs in the leaguer, right there with Rodgers
and Brees on the level just below Peyton Manning. He’s done this despite a
mediocre, but improving, offensive line and injuries to his top two receivers.
They’ve built an offense around Danny Woodhead’s imitation of Darren Sproles
and the surprise emergence of Keenan Allen as the favorite for OROY. Unfortunately,
the team has let several winnable games slip away, and their schedule is brutal
going ahead. They have two games left against each the Broncos and the Chiefs
as well as games against the Dolphins and the Raiders. Their playoff chances
are slim, but this is definitely a team on the upswing.
Tennessee Titans (4-4)
The Titans are a glowing example of the value a defensive
coordinator can provide. They gave up more points than any other team last
year, and in the offseason they spent all their money and draft picks on the
offensive side of the ball. When they brought in Gregg Williams, it was only
news because of his ties to the Saints bounty scandal. Because of him they are
currently ninth in the league in points allowed per game and eleventh in yards.
On the offensive side of the ball, they’re a team built around a solid if
unspectacular offensive line. Chris Johnson gave them nothing until last week,
though Kendall Wright has developed well in his second year. Jake Locker is
still not a very good quarterback, but he’s serviceable for now. They probably
aren’t as good as San Diego, but with two games
left against Jacksonville
they have a better shot at making a playoff run.
Miami Dolphins (4-4)
This team has been in the news recently for all the wrong
reasons, but let’s focus on what they have on the field. Right now they are
likely the sixth best team in the AFC with a reasonable schedule going forward.
Their pass rush is intimidating, aiding a solid secondary. The questions are to
be found on the offensive side of the ball, specifically the offensive line.
Putrid at the beginning of the year, they were beginning to pull together
within recent weeks, as evidenced by Lamar Miller’s increase in productivity.
But suddenly they’re down two starters, likely for the rest of the season.
Jonathan Martin can be replaced easily by Tyson Clabo, but Incognito presents
more of a problem. If they can keep things together, this should be their
playoff spot to lose. If not, it blows things open for the Titans and the
Chargers, and possibly the Browns and the Jets.
Carolina Panthers (5-3)
After some early season struggles, Cam Newton and the
Panthers have pushed into the playoff picture. Newton has played at a Pro Bowl level the
last four weeks, and he’ll be solid even when he regresses to a more average
performance. They still lack talent at the skill positions, but their offensive
line is spectacular. They should be a consistently above average offense the
rest of the way. On the defensive side of the ball the weaknesses in their
secondary are easily covered by the strengths of their front seven, a unit
matched only by Kansas City’s.
Luke Kuechly is a dominant player at middle linebacker, and they have a solid
pair of defensive ends in Johnson and Hardy. But what has really taken their
defense to the next level is their pair of rookie defensive tackles. Kawann
Short has been fantastic, and Star Lotulelei is likely the DROY thus far.
They’ll challenge for the Wild Card and may even push the Saints for the
division title.
Chicago Bears (5-3)
There’s a lot to like about this team and a lot not to like.
When Cutler returns they’ll get back to clicking on offense, with a solid line
protecting him for the first time since he arrived in Chicago. They found the two pieces they’ve
been in search of for the past three years, a second WR and a functional TE.
Between Jeffery, Marshall, and Martellus Bennett they have plenty of weapons in
the passing game. The bigger questions are all about their defense. Their line
is almost nonexistent anymore, providing very little pressure and no resistance
against the run. Injuries have taken their toll at every level. This is not the
Bears team we are used to seeing. If they’re going to win, it will be because
of their offense. McCown is a reliable backup option, but keeping Jay Cutler
healthy is their top priority if they want to make the playoffs.
Detroit Lions (5-3)
The best of the NFC Wild Card contenders, Detroit looks like a good bet to make it back
to the playoffs after last year’s disappointment. Everyone knows about Calvin
Johnson, and they have finally found the missing piece of their offense by
bringing in Reggie Bush. Their line has been strong, if they can get Nate Burleson
back they will field one of the five best offenses in the league. On the
defensive side their strength is again up the middle, with Suh and Fairley
swallowing blockers and hiding how mediocre their linebackers are. Their pass
rush leaves a great deal to be desired, but Ziggy Ansah is still developing. He
won’t add much to their playoff run this year, but he’s shown enough to give
them hope for a dominant line in the years to come. Building around that, they
can be Superbowl contenders down the road. For now they’ll be happy to make the
playoffs.
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