Anatomy of a Hail Mary

So that happened. It’s been a week, and I think we’ve all recovered enough to look at it with a rational eye. In the immediate aftermath I heard irrational voices blaming the coaches, the players, or even the fans. How hard can it be, after all? Just swat the ball down, and everything works out fine. I have seen a lot of Hail Mary plays in my life of watching football, and that isn’t always the case. Below I break down a few that come to mind before giving an analysis of the Nebraska – Northwestern disaster.

Michigan State - Wisonsin

Wisconsin rushes three and drops the rest back to the endzone. As the ball comes down they appear to have their defenders manned up on the potential receivers. The only player who plays the ball is Wisconsin 4 who mistimes his jump and only gets a finger on it. The finger is enough to distract the receivers behind him, and the ball bounces off the hands back towards the field of play. At the right place at the right time is Michigan State 7, who is lost by his man while the ball is bouncing around.

Nebraska – South Carolina

Nebraska rushes four, and the pressure is almost enough to force the QB to slip. The ball doesn’t reach the endzone, and everyone goes to play the ball. Two players jump for each team, but South Carolina 1 creates separation by pushing off. He catches the ball, turns, and falls into the endzone. For those who aren’t familiar, South Carolina 1 is Alshon Jeffery, who is currently committing OPI and catching ridiculous touchdowns for the Chicago Bears. This is also the only instance on this list of a player just jumping and catching it without deflection.

Jacksonville – Houston

The ball reaches the endzone before any of the receivers. The only one who has any chance to catch it is Jacksonville 11, and he is being mugged by a defender. Still, Houston 29 leaps into the air and bats the ball down, as every coach instructs. Unfortunately, down is right into the arms of Jacksonville 80.

Chicago – Kansas City

Tyler Palko throws the ball—did you know Tyler Palko started an NFL game? Did you know Tyler Palko has actually won an NFL game?—deep into the endzone. Nobody from Kansas City jumps, but two Bears players do. Chicago 54 bats the ball down right into the arms of Kansas City 22.

Colorado – Michigan

Jump to :30 for the play. Let’s start with what’s important. Kordell Stewart threw the ball from the 25 and it reached the front of the endzone. That’s insane. 75 yards.

Okay. Onto the catch. Jump to 1:40 for the best view. Again, two players jump for each team. They’re all a bit off balance so no one gets a good jump. Michigan 22 is in the best position to get the ball, and he goes to swat it down. Michigan 25 also tries to bat it down. It hits something in the scrum and pops up into the air, hitting Colorado 81 in stride as he falls into the endzone.

Boston College – Miami

Maybe the most famous Hail Mary in NCAA history. For some reason everyone gathers just outside of the endzone, as if they don’t believe Doug Flutie can throw it 65 yards. Actually, that seems pretty reasonable. In any case, they are wrong. Two Miami defenders and one BC receiver jump for the ball and miss. The ball comes down right in the arms of the only player who ran all the way to the endzone.

LSU – Kentucky

This it he most similar play to the one that beat Northwestern. It’s also the most painful on this list. LSU starts with the ball on their own 25. Nobody believed the QB had a prayer of reaching the endzone from there, and they were right. The ball comes down at the Kentucky 20 with no WR in position to catch it. Two defenders hang behind the ball just in case something goes wrong, as it does. Kentucky 26 leaps for the ball and tips it up into the air, right into the arms of LSU number 9 as he splits the two back defenders. They can’t respond in time and he scampers for the winning touchdown.

Now we get to the main point of this article. Here’s the Nebraska – Northwestern play again, in case it’s not still playing in your nightmares.

Northwestern rushes three, as do most teams in this situation. When the ball comes down the other eight are all around the play, and six converge on the ball. The other two had trailed behind to stop Nebraska from attempting to complete something short and run after the catch. As the ball comes down, there are four Nebraska players within range of the play. Two jump, one remains in back, and one remains short. Northwestern 16 is in the best position to play the ball, and he jumps with the intent to bat it down. He swats with both hands but doesn’t get great contact. It’s difficult to tell whether he mistimed his jump or was bumped from behind, but something about the play was just a bit off. The ball bounces right to Nebraska 1, who has been camping out away from the play.

So what conclusions can we draw? What could Northwestern have done differently? We can start up front, where they could have attempted to rush an additional defender in order to get more pressure. But in several of the above cases, teams did rush four and didn’t get any additional pressure. On the back end, the typical philosophy is that you should “bat the ball down”. We can debate the merits of this strategy, but it’s clear that it’s not perfect. Like Miami, Kentucky, and Michigan, Northwestern simply failed in their attempt to knock the ball out of the air. Even if they had knocked it down, there was a receiver just outside of the endzone who was in position to catch and dive across the plane, like the catches by Kansas City, Michigan State, and Jacksonville above.

In the end, there was nothing we could have done differently. There was no problem with the coaches or the players. The term Hail Mary was coined by Roger Staubach who said after a game winning touchdown pass against the Vikings in 1975, “I closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary.” It is a play all about luck, and last Saturday the luck was against us.