Midseason Report Part 1

Every team in the NFL has played at least eight games, so now seems like a good time to check in on everyone. I've done a brief analysis of each team, their projections for the rest of the season, and their future in years to come. Today I've written up reviews for the bottom sixteen teams, breaking them into three categories. I'll post my assessment for the remaining teams either tomorrow or Saturday. If you don't see your team here, congratulations. If you do, I know your pain.

Down and Out

No hope. No prayer. Nothing to look forward to but the draft. While I can’t encourage fans to actually root against their team, you shouldn’t be heartbroken over a loss. These six teams have no chance of making the playoffs this season, and you’d best come to terms with that.

Minnesota Vikings (1-7)

The Vikings quarterback situation is the worst in the league. They’ve started Ponder for 5 games, Cassel for 2, and Freeman for 1. Not one of them has shown anything to indicate they are a solution going forward. Fortunately for the Vikings, the utter mess at this position has prevented many from noticing the abysmal problems that dot the rest of the roster. Their secondary was a disaster when healthy and is now down 3 starters. Their defensive line has been unable to get consistent pressure, and no one will be too heartbroken when Jared Allen leaves as a free agent at the end of the season. Their offensive line has been disappointing, as have their receivers. Of course, Adrian Peterson is leading the league in rushing yards per game. Because he’s great and the Vikings are wasting what is left of the prime of his career.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)

The team is much more talented than what their record indicates, so let's take a look at the coaching staff. Greg Schiano idolizes Bill Belichick, a great coach who is also a huge dick, but it seems as if he's tried to compensate for his own lack of coaching ability by being an even bigger asshole. The Buccaneers are facing two separate suits from the NFLPA, and I can't see Schiano lasting through the rest of the season. And yet, it’s hard to call this team a total disaster. The roster is loaded with talent, and last weekend they almost beat the Seahawks. It’s troubling that this is the same team that flat out gave up on Raheem Morris two years ago and appears about ready to do the same this year, but it’s hard not to be excited about the future of the franchise.

Oakland Raiders (3-5)

This season was supposed to be a lost year for the Raiders, so it’s a surprise to find them sitting here with 3 wins. Reggie McKenzie has done an admirable job tearing down their roster and filling the holes with a mixture of veterans on short term contracts and young players in search of playing time. But the real difference this year has been at the quarterback position with the stunning emergence of Terrelle Pryor. He has been better than anyone expected, easily the best player on their offense. Barring a second half collapse, he should go into next season as their starting QB. But with all these positives, this is still the most depleted roster outside of Jacksonville. They could win a couple more games this year, but they aren’t making a playoff run.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)

I have no clue what to say about the Steelers. Two weeks ago they allowed the Raiders to pick up only one first down in the second half. This past week they allowed the Patriots to score 55 points, the most the Steelers have ever given up in their history. Their offense is just as inconsistent, seeming to coordinate their good games with the defense’s bad games. This team is far better than their 2-6 record indicates, and yet they have earned every loss. Looking ahead, there is enough young talent to get excited about. What they really need is a top caliber talent of the sort that is difficult to find outside the top ten of the draft. The Steelers haven’t had a top ten pick since 2000, longer than any other team.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8)

The Jaguars are the most depressing team in the league. Unlike the other representatives in this category, there is no reason for them to have any hope in the near future. Their best player is an aging running back, their quarterback situation is a disaster, and their first round pick from this year is on IR. Their most promising young player, Justin Blackmon, has been suspended twice for substance abuse violations (though if you played for the Jaguars, you’d probably drink a lot too.) Even if they end up with the first pick and grab a top quality quarterback, the roster is filled with holes. All they can hope for is that whoever they draft this year isn’t permanently damaged by playing with a dreadful supporting cast over the next three years.

Long Shots

While technically still alive, these teams would need miraculous turnarounds to have any shot of making the playoffs. They aren’t bad teams, but through the first half of the season they have dug holes almost too deep to climb out of. Note the qualifier in there. I would have included the 2012 Redskins (3-6 through 9 games last year) in this category. All these teams need to do is go on a similar undefeated run to end the season.

Atlanta Falcons (2-6)

Injuries. Injuries, injuries, injuries. Roddy White was hobbled at the beginning of the year and has missed the past three games. Julio Jones is out for the rest of the season. Sean Weatherspoon has been out since week 2. Steven Jackson has only 38 carries on the season. The Falcons have been devastated by injuries more than any other team in the league, but their struggles can’t be entirely blamed on bad luck. What these injuries have revealed is a disturbing lack of depth. Despite the absences of Jones and White, Harry Douglas is the only other WR on the roster with more than ten receptions. Jacquizz Rodgers is averaging 3.3 yards per carry. This team went all in on Julio Jones to try to win a championship, and now they are suffering the consequences. You have to feel bad for Tony Gonzalez, though. He’s still great.

St. Louis Rams (3-6)

The Rams are an average team that will likely remain average for the next few years. They have the best defensive line in the NFL, but beyond that there is nothing special on their roster. James Laurinaitis and Janoris Jenkins are good players, but they can’t be the bedrock of a back seven. They moved up in the draft to grab Tavon Austin, but they haven’t figured out how to use his skills. In a blowout win against the Texans he was on the field for a total of three offensive snaps. Zac Stacey has rescued a dismal running game, but he’s another good piece on a team that lacks anyone great outside of their defensive line. But right now their most immediate concern is the quarterback situation. Bradford is a free agent at the end of the season, and they need to decide what they are going to do regarding him.

Arizona Cardinals (4-4)

Let’s start with the positives on this one. The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the league. In Patrick Peterson, Daryl Washington, and Calais Campbell they have superstars at every level. Their problems arise whenever their offense is on the field. Carson Palmer is the same player he was in Oakland, capable of just enough great plays to keep the starting job despite leading the league in turnovers. Any hopes they had of improving their atrocious offensive line shattered with first round pick Jonathan Cooper’s leg. Larry Fitzgerald is Larry Fitzgerald, and Michael Floyd has improved from his disappointing rookie season. But the only real offensive positive going forward is Andre Ellington, a player who is averaging 8.2 yards per touch yet is still a backup to a player averaging 3.4 yards per touch.

Buffalo Bills (3-6)

The Bills have had their struggles, but there is a lot to like about this team going forward. Their offensive line looks very strong, and they have good pieces at wide receiver. CJ Spiller has been disappointing, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t bounce back. The injury to Manuel really hurts from a developmental and evaluative perspective. In the time he played it was difficult to make any judgment. He should be back this weekend, and hopefully going forward he can give a better impression of the quarterback he will become. Kiko Alonso is a good (if overhyped) linebacker. If he can learn to be more aggressive, he can become a Pro Bowl player. This team looks very promising, and they should be able to break the NFL’s longest playoff drought soon. Just not this year.

Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

The defending Superbowl Champions are in genuine danger of missing the playoffs. They have lost four out of five and still have two games against the Bengals, visits to Chicago and Detroit, and a game at home against the Patriots left on their schedule. They can’t afford to lose any more than two of those if they want to make the playoffs. While their defense has been mostly solid, their offense has come nowhere near the level of their playoff run. Joe Flacco has displayed typical Joe Flacco inconsistency, but the run game he’s always been able to rely on is nowhere to be found. Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce are each averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Unless this offense suddenly remembers how to play like they did in the playoffs, they’re looking at a top ten pick.

Houston Texans (2-6)

After starting 2-0 the Texans have lost six straight. They’ve been competitive in half of those games, but they have also suffered blowout losses to the Ravens, 49ers, and Rams. There’s been very little change in their roster from the past couple years, and they haven’t been particularly affected by injuries (besides Brian Cushing, who is always injured.) What’s really killed them has been turnover differential, where they have dropped from the top 5 of the league to the bottom 3. Matt Schaub definitely deserves some of the blame for this, and Case Keenum looks like he could be a solution. In two games he has yet to throw an interception, though he has fumbled twice. He definitely deserves a look as the season progresses, and if he continues at this level, there is an outside chance they could get back into the playoff picture.

New York Giants (2-6)

The Aaron Rodgers injury has really shaken up the NFL landscape. Before the injury I would have eliminated any hope of the Giants making the playoffs. Now, I’m not so sure. Their schedule going ahead is still not pleasant, but if they can manage wins over Oakland and Green Bay the next two weeks, they’ll be riding a 4 game winning streak heading into Dallas. From there they still need a good number of breaks, and the best they can hope to finish is 8-8. But that may be enough for them to win the division and sneak into the playoffs. The chances are slim, but this is the best I think the Giants could hope for. Looking ahead, it’s hard to be optimistic about this team. Their offensive line is getting steadily worse, and there are very few pieces to like on their defense. About the only positive thing I can say is that they remind me of where the Chargers were last year.

I Have No Clue

The name says it all. I have no idea how to project where these teams will go from here due to their wild inconsistency thus far through the season. They could make a playoff run and knock off one of the teams above, or they could plummet and join the dregs fighting for a top pick.

Washington Redskins (3-5)

The Redskins offense is really good and their defense is really bad. Before the season their hopes rested on the return of Brian Orakpo, but he has been underwhelming thus far this season. London Fletcher is (finally) showing signs of age. Their secondary is a disaster. None of that will change, though they may regress towards the mean somewhat. On the offensive side their problems have been dissected by everyone in the world over the course of the season, and it has led to some absurd statements. The idea that they should bench RGIII for Cousins was laughable even when Griffin was still hobbled by the knee injury. It was ridiculous to expect him to return at full strength immediately. Even if he was at full strength, he likely would have faced the sort of troubles many second year players encounter in the NFL. His performance will even out. The greater question remains with their defense. If they can get anything resembling competence, they have the potential for a playoff run like last year’s.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)

The Eagles offense is really good and their defense is really bad. Sound familiar? In many ways their season has mirrored their division rival’s, which is why they both find themselves in this category. Their issues at quarterback have been the result of a cycle of injuries rather than an individual’s ineffectiveness. Matt Barkley has been terrible, and until he became the GREATEST QUARTERBACK IN NFL HISTORY last week I didn’t see any reason to be high on Nick Foles either. Now they have a genuine QB controversy, but it really doesn’t matter. Their offense runs on quick passes and LeSean McCoy. But again, like the Redskins, their team will succeed or fail based on their defense. Unlike the Redskins, they have shown hints of competence over the past few weeks, giving up 21 points or fewer in each of their last five games. Their offense isn’t going to improve in the same way as Washington’s, but their defense is probably better.

New York Jets (5-4)

The Jets offense is a depressing thing. Stephen Hill hasn’t developed at all, yet he’s probably their best healthy receiving option. The RB duo of Powell and Ivory is solid but unspectacular, not enough to carry an offense. Unless Geno Smith takes a huge step forward, this is a bottom five offense in the league. But on the other side of the ball, they are terrifying. Their strength begins in the middle with a pair of talented and versatile DL in Wilkerson and the rookie Richardson. There is a definite hole opposite Cromartie in the secondary (Dee Milliner has been dreadful) but their pass rush can make up for it. But as good as their defense can look, they've been torched by Cincinnati and Tennessee this season. If the defense can sustain consistent dominance, they might be able to drag the offense to a playoff berth.

Cleveland Browns (4-5)

The Browns are the most perplexing team in the NFL. Yes, they have several great players in Joe Thomas, Josh Gordon, Joe Haden, and Jordan Cameron. (Note to Browns, draft someone this year whose name starts with “Jo”. Johnny Football, maybe?) But that shouldn’t be enough to overcome the general mediocrity that dots the rest of their roster. Dealing away the disappointing Richardson was a good move, but it’s not like Willis McGahee has torn it up as his replacement. Their quarterback situation has been a mess of injuries and ineffectiveness, yet they keep finding a way to win games and stay alive. Do I think it’s sustainable? No, but I didn’t expect them to be sitting at second in the AFC North at this point in the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if they only won two games the rest of the season, but I think there’s just as good a chance they end up fighting for the last Wild Card spot.