Never Too Early To Think About The Draft

Over the past few weeks I have spent a lot of time writing about the playoff race in both conferences. And while those races are still interesting, I am going to take this chance to discuss a race much nearer and dearer to my heart as a Vikings fan: the race for draft position. The playoff teams have plenty of games left to fight for the right to play in the Super Bowl. The teams at the bottom have only four games remaining to decide who gets the right to draft Teddy Bridgewater.

Currently there are nine teams with four or fewer wins. Draft position will be determined in reverse order of final record with ties broken by strength of schedule. Teams with easier schedules will get to draft before teams with more difficult schedules. In the event that teams end up with identical records and identical strengths of schedule the tie is broken by a coin flip at the NFL Combine. I’ve ordered these teams based on the positions in which I think they’ll finish based on the strength of their team and their remaining schedule. Note: I will probably not be right in any way. These are all terrible teams who may or may not win games based entirely on random variance.

I will also briefly touch on which of the available talents would fit best with these rosters. Based on my own observations and the mock drafts I’ve seen, here are the players to watch at the top of the draft. Teddy Bridgewater will probably go first overall. Other quarterbacks to watch at the top will be Brett Hundley, Johnny Manziel, and Derek Carr. Pass rushers Jadeveon Clowney and Anthony Barr will be top five selections, as will offensive tackle Jake Matthews. No wide receivers will go in the top five, but you could see Sammy Watkins, Marquise Lee, or Mike Evans end up in the six to ten range. Others that could end up in the top ten are pass rusher Khalil Mack, offensive tackles Taylor Lewan and Cyrus Kouandjio, and any number of players I haven’t named who will find their way up there by the time the draft rolls around. Again, this is all wild speculation.

Buffalo Bills (4-8)

Remaining Schedule: @Tampa Bay, @Jacksonville, Miami, @New England

Strength of Schedule: 99-93

The Bills are a decent team with a reasonable schedule ahead of them. They have three games against beatable opponents followed by a trip to New England in which the Patriots may not have anything to play for. Two more wins is very possible, especially for a team as talented as this one. Their defense has quietly become very good, though their offense has been disappointing all around this season. Their main goal over the final four games should be to keep EJ Manuel healthy and try to establish some chemistry between him and the weapons they have on offense.

They won’t have a chance to draft any of the top talents available, but that won’t be too big an issue. They are committed to Manuel for at least next year, and the pass rush combination of Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes has been effective so far this season. They could try to add to their offensive talent with a wide receiver like Watkins or Evans. One of the second tier offensive tackles would be an excellent option as well.

Oakland Raiders (4-8)

Remaining Schedule: @Jets, Kansas City, @San Diego, Denver

Strength of Schedule: 98-94

This team is difficult to figure out. In terms of overall talent, they may be the worst roster in the league. It’s a miracle that they’ve managed to pull together four wins. At the beginning of the year it looked like Terrelle Pryor was all they had on offense, but since he’s been injured Matt McGloin has been just as effective leading the offense. At the same time, they very well could target a quarterback in the draft. Their schedule is tough, but I think they’ll pull off at least one more win to end up in the six to ten range of the draft. In that position, with their depleted roster, they should take whoever they believe is the best player available. They probably don’t need a pass rusher with the success of Lamarr Houston and the emergence of Sio Moore, but other than that they could use talent at any position on the field.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)

Remaining Schedule: Houston, Buffalo, Tennessee, @Indianapolis

Strength of Schedule: 97-95

Don’t look now, but the Jaguars have won three of their last four. Last week they even went outside their division and won a game, something they hadn’t done since 2011. This is a team that’s beginning to come together, and their upcoming schedule is very friendly. They could conceivably win three more games, and I’d be stunned if they don’t pick up at least one more victory. This isn’t a good team, but neither are Houston, Buffalo, or Tennessee.

As for what they do in the draft, there are two potential roads they could pursue. They could take the Indianapolis Colts approach and decide a quarterback is all they need to turn their franchise around. Unfortunately there isn’t a player of Andrew Luck’s abilities available, and they won’t be in position to draft the top quarterback anyway. Even if they do grab someone like Hundley or Carr, they won’t be a playoff team next year. They need a couple more years to build talent on this roster before they could reasonably compete for the playoffs. A better option would be to grab someone like Clowney or Barr, struggle through the next year or two, and hope they can get their quarterback of the future once they have a decent roster to insert him into.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9)

Remaining Schedule: Buffalo, San Francisco, @St Louis, @New Orleans

Strength of Schedule: 111-81

The Buccaneers are a good football team. Their record (particularly their 0-8 start) may not reflect that, but their three wins in their last four games certainly do. They are loaded with talent on defense, and their offense looks like they’ve started to put the pieces together. Mike Glennon has been the best rookie quarterback in the league this year, which is fifty percent Mike Glennon and fifty percent the rest of the 2013 quarterback class. With their upcoming schedule it’s not unreasonable to think the Buccaneers could pull out two more wins.

What they do with their pick is the most interesting question. Their biggest need is at the defensive end position, and drafting Clowney would take this defense from dangerous to elite. But if he’s not available, they could conceivably grab anyone else among the top players. They could use Matthews at tackle, Watkins at wide receiver, or even possibly one of the quarterbacks. Their recent success probably hasn’t been enough to save Greg Schiano’s job, and the new coach might be willing to cast Glennon aside despite his strong play. If Mark Dominik stays on as GM this would be unlikely, but quarterback remains an outside possibility.

Atlanta Falcons (3-9)

Remaining Schedule: @Green Bay, Washington, @San Francisco, Carolina

Strength of Schedule: 105-86-1

If Atlanta is going to get another win, it will happen in the next two weeks. They can beat the Packers if Rodgers isn’t able to return, and they’ll probably top Washington at home in two weeks. Unlike the rest of these teams, they have no great incentive to fight for the top pick. Atlanta is the one team at the top of the draft that truly has no need for a quarterback. Matt Ryan is their guy, and some minor struggles this year aside, he’s a pretty damn good guy. That leaves them with lots of options if they end up with a top selection. Clowney fills their most pressing need and fits well into their current scheme, but they could use a player like Matthews also. Alternatively, they could trade down and collect more middle round picks in order to handle the startling lack of depth revealed by the injuries they suffered this year. Their fans should be happy with where they’re sitting now, and they shouldn’t be too upset if they pull out another couple wins.

Cleveland Browns (4-8)

Remaining Schedule: @New England, Chicago, @Jets, @Pittsburgh

Strength of Schedule: 96-96

With its upcoming opponents the Browns will be lucky to win even a single game more, and their strength of schedule is the weakest of any team on this list. They look to have good potential to earn a top five pick. A few weeks back this looked like a playoff contender, and the past couple defeats have been painful for anyone who hoped they could make the next step. The most obvious need on the team is at the quarterback position, and that’s something they will likely address in this draft. If they can end up with somewhere around the fifth or sixth pick, they’ll have several options. They could wait and hope that no one ahead of them snags one of the secondary prospects, or they could use the extra pick they got from the Colts (likely in the mid 20s) to move up a couple spots. Unlike teams like Jacksonville and Oakland, they have enough talent already that they can field a competitive squad simply by adding at the quarterback position.

Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1)

Remaining Schedule: @Baltimore, Philadelphia, @Cincinnati, Detroit

Strength of Schedule: 102-90

Fortunately for the Vikings, their upcoming schedule is the most brutal of any team on this list. Cincinnati and Detroit are both bound for the playoffs, and Philadelphia and Baltimore are both in good position to make it as well. They’ll face four teams at their best and hungry for a victory. Unfortunately for the Vikings, they’re playing their best football right about now. In their last four games they are 2-1-1, and replacing the injured Christian Ponder with Matt Cassel only increases their chances of pulling off a surprise victory. While the rest of their team looks like they have given up, Adrian Peterson is still fighting for every damn yard. During their game against the Bears he appeared to be the only player on the field actually interested in winning the game. Their chances at the first overall pick are probably already gone, and if they aren’t careful they could miss out on the chance to draft whoever they think is the second best quarterback available. At least if they can’t find anyone at that position, there are other holes on their roster to fill. Either Clowney or Barr would fill a great need on what has been an abysmal defense this season.

Washington Redskins-Pick Goes to St Louis (3-9)

Remaining Schedule: Kansas City, @Atlanta, Dallas, @Giants

Strength of Schedule: 99-93

This is an interesting case because there is no incentive whatsoever for the team in question not to at least try to win their games. No matter how poorly the Redskins finish, they won’t gain anything due to the trade that brought them Robert Griffin III two years ago. While I still think the trade was the proper decision, I don’t think either them or St Louis counted on this being a top five selection. But that’s where it’s headed. The Redskins have been trying to win all year, and it hasn’t worked out for them yet. There’s no reason to think they can pull off any further victories against a challenging upcoming schedule.

This pick leaves St Louis in an interesting situation. Among the players projected to go at the top of the draft we have a pair of pass rushers Barr and Clowney, an offensive tackle in Matthews, and the quarterbacks. They have maybe the best pair of defensive ends in the NFL, and they’ve locked in Jake Long for the next couple years. Most likely they’ll end up reaching for a wide receiver or trading down with a team in desperate need of a quarterback. But there is a chance that they’ll look at their position, find a quarterback prospect they truly love, and decide to move on from Sam Bradford. If they cut him before next season they will save $10 million in cap space, enough for them to draft a franchise quarterback and sign an upper echelon free agent at one of their other positions of need.

Houston Texans (2-10)

Remaining Schedule: @Jacksonville, @Indianapolis, Denver, @Tennessee

Strength of Schedule: 106-86

With this roster, the Texans could (and should) win at least two more games. But if there is one team in the league that has absolutely given up on the season, it is Houston. Even with their issues at quarterback, there is no reason a team with JJ Watt, Duane Brown, and Andre Johnson should lose ten games in a row. Due to his health issues, firing Gary Kubiak could end up as a PR nightmare. I think they do it anyway. There is no excuse for how terribly this team has collapsed this season.

The difficulty of their schedule could present a problem if they end up tied, but I don’t think that will be an issue. The Texans will likely end up with the top pick, and they will use that pick to grab Bridgewater (unless they fall in love with another quarterback.) Add competent quarterback play to this roster, and you have a team that will be dangerous over the next couple years. Matt Schaub won the division with this team two years in a row. If they can get an elite quarterback in the draft, they will spend the next few years competing for a Super Bowl.