Tanking in the NFL

Tanking is a major problem in professional sports. In order to keep as level a playing field as possible, all major North American professional sporting leagues have instituted a draft of entering players with an order determined by inverting the finish from the previous regular season. This is designed to allow the worst teams to get the best players so they can rebuild rather than continuing a downward spiral that leaves us with only a few elite teams lording over the mediocrity of the rest of the league. For the most part the system works, allowing teams to go from laughingstocks to legitimate title contenders in the span of a few years.

Tanking is a flaw in this design. For teams that believe they don’t have a chance of competing for a championship, this system gives them incentive to lose games in order to better their draft position. This strategy is most prevalent in the NBA, and it has reached new heights this year with the potential upside of the 2014 draft class. Because of the minor league system, tanking is less of an issue in the NHL and the MLB. It still happens, but there are fewer immediate gains from having a terrible season. All but the best NHL prospects start in the minor leagues or go to college, and it is an extraordinarily rare MLB prospect that doesn’t spend at least a full season in the minor leagues. This means that players at the top of the draft are less sure prospects and promise smaller returns in the immediate future.

But what about the NFL? In the past few years the roles of rookie players have expanded greatly. Gone are the days where a player can be put aside for two or three years to develop before taking over a starting role. There isn’t even a lottery system as there is in the NBA, strengthening the incentive to roll over for a top selection. Why don’t we hear as much about tanking in the NFL?

There are several reasons why tanking is not prevalent in the NFL. First and foremost, there is less incentive to tank because one player is not as significant to the fortunes of a team. In the NBA we only have to look over the past few seasons to see how much an elite player can mean to a franchise. In 2010 the Cleveland Cavaliers finished with a record of 61-21, the best of any team in the NBA. During the next summer they lost LeBron James, and the following season they finished with a mark of 19-63, the second worst record in the league. Teams believe that if they can find the next LeBron James they can go from bottom of the league to a championship contender simply on the strength of that individual.

This is one area where the NFL may be changing in a way that encourages tanking. The quarterback has always been the most valuable position in the league, but with the way rules and schemes have changed in the past decade that value has become inflated almost beyond measure. In 2011 the Indianapolis Colts finished with a record of 2-14 and earned the first pick in the draft. In 2012, without significant changes to their roster beyond the addition of Andrew Luck, they went 10-6 and made the playoffs. Just to show that this was not a one season thing, they are currently 9-5 and on their way to another playoff berth. Adding Luck has made all the difference in their team, as it has with teams in the NBA.

So will we see NFL teams tanking more desperately in the future in order to get a top quarterback? It’s possible, and that’s likely what we’ve seen with the Houston Texans this season. As soon as it became clear that neither Matt Schaub nor Case Keenum would be their quarterback of the future, the team stopped putting forth the effort necessary to win games. They have lost twelve straight, and I would be stunned if they won either of their remaining two. They will have the top selection in the draft and will likely take whoever they believe is the best quarterback available.

This strategy is less meaningful for teams without need of a quarterback. The Atlanta Falcons are set at that position with Matt Ryan, and they have been given no incentive to continue their losing ways because of the depth of talent available in the draft. Because of the size of NFL rosters, it is very possible to find Pro Bowl caliber players at any point in the first round. Every draft since 1995 has produced at least one Pro Bowl player in the 25-32 range of the draft (assuming Muhammad Wilkerson makes it this year. If he doesn’t, it is a crime.) The same depth of talent does not exist in the NBA. If you are selecting outside of the top five, the best you can hope to do is draft a reliable role player. Many have suggested the Falcons should tank in order to get Jadeveon Clowney, but even if they slip outside the top five they could still end up with someone like Anthony Barr or Khalil Mack, a drop off that is not that significant.

The structure of the NFL schedule is also unique compared to other sporting leagues. Both the NHL and the NBA play 82 game schedules, and the MLB plays 162. This many games create a sample size large enough that a team’s record is a strong indicator of how good they actually are. A sixteen game NFL season does not have the same effect. Teams can get lucky, pull out a better record than they are reasonably capable of, and sneak into the playoffs. Once in the playoffs everything is single elimination, increasing the chances of a team going on a run and winning the Super Bowl. In the NBA, where the best team usually wins, no one has any interest in gaining one of the lower seeds. This is why a team like the Philadelphia 76ers has gone out of their way to bottom out this season after spending the last two as either the seventh or the eighth seed. Compare that to the NFL, where the Baltimore Ravens made the playoffs five straight seasons but only earned a first round bye once. They were content with earning a Wild Card spot because they knew that they just needed a stretch like last year to get hot, win four games, and be crowned champions.

While teams in the NBA don’t actively go out and attempt to throw games, they aren’t always trying their hardest to win them. Players on teams that aren’t going anywhere will often play lax defense and spend their time on offense just trying to build their own stats. They are able to do this because in the NBA their contracts are guaranteed. Even if their team cuts them before the next season, they still earn the money on the deal they signed. Contracts in the NFL aren’t guaranteed, and players on bad teams understand that they are playing for their jobs. With the exception of elite, big money stars, most players on NFL teams are easily replaceable. If they don’t give their full effort one season, it is very likely they won’t be around next season.

All these things considered, it is still surprising we don’t see more tanking in the NFL. This season the only team we can point at as a clear example of tanking is the Houston Texans. Others like the Raiders and the Browns have started to give up, but they were still competing for a playoff spot only a couple weeks ago. A perplexing case is Washington, a team that appears to be doing everything in its power to lose games. They’ve benched their quarterback as a “health precaution” and the players on their defense are giving laughable effort on a weekly basis. They would be a perfect example of tanking, except that they do not actually own their first round pick. Right now it appears that they are going out of their way to make certain the Rams draft as high in the first round as possible. Here is a team with no incentive to tank, yet they appear to be doing so anyway.

These examples aside, the teams that looked to be in the best position to tank are the teams that have pulled together reasonably competent seasons. At the midway point of the season the bottom three teams in the league were the Jaguars, the Buccaneers, and the Vikings. Through week nine they were a combined 1-23. All three of them were in need of a quarterback and a pass rusher, the players most likely to go at the top of the draft. It would have taken a miracle for any of them to make the playoffs, and in any other sport you would have seen the teams get progressively worse as the season wore on. But since that point they are a combined 11-6-1, and all three are playing their best football right now.

Many people point to pride as the issue, but NBA players have just as much pride as those in the NFL. The bigger difference, I believe, is in the overarching culture of the sports. Tanking in the NBA has a long tradition, and while no one is really proud of it, it isn’t viewed with as much distaste as it is in the NFL. In the NFL, where an individual game can make a huge difference, the tradition is of bad teams playing spoiler as the season wears on. The schedule is designed so every game in week seventeen is a division matchup, often with playoff implications. Do you think the Bills wouldn’t like a chance to potentially knock the Patriots out of a first round bye? Do you think the Raiders wouldn’t want to do the same to the Broncos? The Lions have done a fine job crippling their playoff chances, but wouldn’t the Vikings like to be the ones to drive the nail into the coffin? For this reason, along with the others named above, it is clear why tanking isn’t a strategy found as commonly in the NFL as it is in the NBA.