The Marcus Mariota Puzzle

The draft is now less than a week away. I’ve broken down the top prospects, and I was probably going to just move on to my mock drafts, as I did last year. But something came up as I was preparing these mock drafts, an unpleasant complication: Marcus Mariota.

Over the past couple weeks it has become increasingly clear that Tampa Bay will be taking Jameis Winston with the first overall pick. They haven’t made it official in any way, but it would be a major shock if something else happened. But with the second pick, things start to get interesting. Because while it seems reasonably certain that Mariota will be the second player off the board, no one is quite sure which team will be doing the picking.

I don’t project trades in my mock drafts because I feel they defeat the purpose, but in a situation with these stakes, I feel like it’s necessary to take a look at what may or may not happen. Any trade likely won’t occur until after the Buccaneers have made their pick. No one wants to leap up for Mariota only to have him taken off the board, and the Titans would hate to drop down and miss out on the possibility of Winston falling to them. Until then we have only wild speculation and rumor, the part of draft season that makes it so much fun.

Tennessee Titans

Let’s start with the easiest one. The Tennessee Titans have the option to remain where they are and use the pick on Mariota. They need a quarterback, this is probably the best opportunity they’ll get at one, and it would be a mistake to pass it up. If no one comes by with a mindblowing offer, they could stay in place and take Mariota for themselves. On an offense with talented young players like Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter on the outside, with a defense slowly building around solid pieces like Jason McCourty and Jurrell Casey, a quarterback would be enough to push them possibly into playoff contention.

Drafting a young quarterback would make more sense for them than trading for a veteran like Philip Rivers or Jay Cutler. Even if the Titans add a top notch quarterback next year, they have only a small chance of going on a run and making the postseason. If this team is going to compete for a Super Bowl, it will a few years down the road once their pieces have matured and they’ve added some more talent. A veteran can help them now, but Mariota would be more useful when their team is in a real position to compete.

The issue is Ken Whisenhunt. He’s found offensive success at various stages of his career as both an offensive coordinator and a head coach, but it isn’t hard to see a trend in the quarterbacks who have led him to this success. Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, Philip Rivers. All big armed, mostly stationary, pocket passers. He has a significantly lesser version of that already in Zach Mettenberger, and he may not like Mariota’s fit in his system. I can’t defend this logic, but I can at least understand it. If he’s not a fit, they will look to earn the maximum value from one of the other teams on this list.

Washington Redskins

This is an outside shot, a rumor from a month ago that probably won’t happen. But I included them just because it was interesting to consider the possibilities. After all, three teams last year drafted a quarterback in the first round. The Vikings and the Jaguars had last used first round picks on quarterbacks in 2011, and the Browns had only gone since 2012. The rookie wage scale has lessened the financial blow of missing on a young quarterback, encouraging teams to take more aggressive risks with their picks.

It was only three years ago that the Redskins made a titanic trade to acquire Robert Griffin III, and it was only two years ago that they were certain they had a long term answer under center. Two years of chaos and controversy later, the franchise is an utter mess. Devoid of talent thanks to the picks they surrendered in the trade, they have to try to find some way to rebuild their team around the drama brought on by their owner, their coach, and their current quarterback.

Mariota would be a major improvement over Griffin in one area at least: attitude. Daniel Snyder is the biggest problem in Washington, but Griffin has done his part to contribute to the problems. Someone more low key like Mariota would allow them to ease some of the attention, to build without as much constant scrutiny. This is hardly a reason to select a quarterback, but if they truly believe that Griffin is not their guy, they have to consider everything they gave up to get him as sunk costs.

Washington won’t trade up for Mariota, but they’re the next team that could take him if he somehow slides past the Titans. They could trade out of this slot as well, picking up some extra picks to make up for the ones they’ve lost over the past three years. I wouldn’t count it out, but I feel fairly safe saying that Mariota will not be a Redskin next year.

New York Jets

The Jets have had a very interesting offseason. They had a lot of money to spend, and they went all in on making moves to immediately improve their team. They revamped the secondary that was so wretched last year, signing perhaps the best three cornerbacks on the market. They traded for Brandon Marshall, a player coming off a down season who still has a lot to offer. And, perhaps most significantly, they hired Todd Bowles to lead the team, after a season in which he showed remarkable flexibility and intelligence in piecing together a battered Cardinals defense.

This team could be very good, potentially a playoff contender, if not for Geno Smith. Smith had an extremely good final game of the year, but other than that his 2014 season was a disaster, showing no sign of development and no reason to be optimistic for the future. The Jets have a few small needs across their roster, but quarterback is the only glaring hole, a hole they could possibly fill for the price of their first and second round pick.

For years the Patriots have ruled the AFC East, but there is light appearing on the horizon. The Jets know that the Brady era is nearing its end, and grabbing a franchise quarterback would put them in prime position to leap to the head of the division once that end comes. So far they haven’t been mentioned much as a trade contender, but a late push would make a lot of sense, giving them a piece to help contribute immediately and to build around for the future.

Chicago Bears

This is where the trades get really interesting. Because as fun as it is to deal draft picks back and forth, it is so much better when there is an established player involved. And in this case that player would be a starting caliber quarterback, someone who has already been involved in the most interesting trade involving first round draft picks in the past ten years. The Bears aren’t thrilled to have Jay Cutler (or his contract) on their team, and they would love the opportunity to invest in a newer, younger, cheaper option under center.

Of course, all the reasons the Bears don’t want Cutler are also reasons the Titans wouldn’t want Cutler. He is an established veteran quarterback of the mold that Whisenhunt seems to like, but if that’s what Tennessee is looking for, there is a much better option available. The appealing piece the Bears have is a top ten pick, in case the Titans don’t want to drop down too far in the draft.

The move would make a lot of sense for Chicago if they could get Tennessee to agree to it, but I would still be hesitant to go through with it. Mariota would not make the Bears a playoff team right now. He probably wouldn’t be a significant improvement on Cutler, and he would do absolutely nothing to help their defense. In the meantime it would give them a little more flexibility financially next season, but I think their best option is to stomach Cutler for two more years, build their defense, then try to find a suitable quarterback once they’re in a better position to rebuild.

St Louis Rams

The Rams traded for Nick Foles earlier this offseason, but that doesn’t mean they are satisfied at the quarterback position. Some may believe Foles still offers reasonable potential as a long term starter, but I don’t count myself among them. Foles produced reasonably well in 2013 thanks to some incredible luck, luck that deserted him as expected last year. He will now be going to a worse situation, with less talent around him and a mediocre coaching staff who has shown no ability to put players in a position to succeed. Even if Nick Foles is the starter for the Rams Week One of the 2015 season, I think it’s very likely the same won’t be true in 2016.

The one thing the Rams do have going for them is a decent depth of talent, a result of the picks acquired in the RGIII trade. If anyone can afford to give up a few picks for a single player, it would be the Rams. With the competition also going for Mariota, it will probably cost them Foles and their first two picks to move up with the Titans. They have a roster that could make this deal worthwhile, especially if their other young talent can finally step up. That’s the issue of course. I’ve made no secret of my dislike for Jeff Fisher, as thoroughly mediocre a coach as there is in the NFL. I almost dread the thought of Mariota in St Louis, where his unique talent will be as wasted as Tavon Austin’s.

Cleveland Browns

If the Titans truly believe that Zach Mettenberger is their guy, then no one is in a better position than the Browns. Other teams might be able to trump them by offering veteran quarterbacks (and the Browns could make things very interesting by offering Johnny Manziel), but Cleveland is the only contender for Mariota with two first round picks. They have their own selection, 12^th overall, and Buffalo’s pick, 19^th. These two together would probably be enough to wrest the 2^nd overall pick from Tennessee, provided they aren’t looking for a veteran at quarterback.

There is a lot of reason to be uneasy about this idea. The Browns have used huge amounts of draft capital on quarterbacks over the past three years, taking Brandon Weeden in 2012 and Manziel last year. A third quarterback in four years is a testy proposition, particularly since I’m not ready to give up on Manziel yet. His rookie season went about as badly as it could have gone, but there is still a lot of talent there. They should give him at least another year, install him as the starter from the beginning and let him run the offense before they make up their mind one way or the other.

It would be interesting to put Mariota in Cleveland, though not for anything on the field. On the field the Browns offense is going to be ugly and terrible, no matter who they have under center. But off the field, we would really have an incredible experiment. The failure of Manziel in one of the league’s most tumultuous environments wasn’t surprising. Now we could have the chance to see how the anti-Manziel would fare. Would Mariota remain professional under all circumstances, or would the great beast of Jimmy Haslem and the Cleveland Browns drag Mariota down into their abyss?

San Diego Chargers

This makes too much sense, and right now it seems like the most likely trade scenario. Philip Rivers has only one year left on his contract, and with the talk of the Chargers possibly relocating it seems very possible that he isn’t going to sign an extension. The Titans would seem to be his ideal destination, with his former offensive coordinator Whisenhunt and only a 90 minute drive from his hometown. The Chargers would be able to seamlessly transition from one franchise quarterback to another, the sort of opportunity that usually only presents itself after a couple down years.

I certainly agree that it makes sense for San Diego. The Chargers made the playoffs in 2013 and fell just short in 2014, but that oversells the talent available on this team. Their offensive line is bad, their running game is bad, and their defense needs help everywhere except the secondary. Even if they can get Rivers to stay around for another two or three years, they probably won’t be in position to win a Super Bowl. Rebuilding seems like a reasonable course, and Mariota would be the perfect piece to jumpstart that process.

It makes less sense for Tennessee, for all the reasons I listed above. Rivers is a very good quarterback, but he probably has three or four years at most left. This might overlap with the window created by the developing players on the Titans, but in the long term I think they would be better off going with a younger quarterback, someone who can be their future rather than their present.

Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, they traded for Sam Bradford. Yes, they resigned Mark Sanchez. Yes, they added Tim Tebow. But I’m not convinced yet that they’ve given up on getting Mariota. The Oregon connection is obvious, but even if it wasn’t, it would still be hard to ignore that Mariota is the perfect quarterback for Chip Kelly’s system. If you want to see the Eagles succeed, you should hope they get Mariota. If you want to see Mariota succeed, you should hope he goes to Philadelphia.

The problem is, the Eagles lag behind most of the other teams in contention for Mariota in terms of pieces they have to offer. They have only a single first round pick, the worst of all the teams I’ve listed. They have Bradford, but he is a significantly less valuable asset than both Cutler and Rivers. To get up to the second pick they would likely have to offer this year’s and next year’s first round pick, as well as possibly another couple mid round picks.

The only realistic scenario I see for the Eagles getting Mariota would involve a three team trade. They would move Bradford to a team like the Browns for an extra first round pick, which they would then package with their own pick to Tennessee. The details of this are very complicated, and ultimately I think it won’t work out. But if it did, the addition of Mariota could make the Eagles a Super Bowl contender. Or it could drop them to the bottom of the league. Right now with Philadelphia, anything is possible.