2015 Mock Draft: If I Ruled the World

When putting together a mock draft, you have to face a slightly awkward question. Are you putting together a draft based on what you think will happen, or are you putting together a draft based on what you think should happen? Most people do some combination of the two, leaving the whole thing a bit muddled. I’ve decided to simplify things by creating two separate mock drafts, starting today with what would happen if I was put in charge of every pick.

In case you’re curious about any of these prospects, I wrote up every position group over the past month.

Quarterback

Wide Receiver and Tight End

Running Back

Offensive Line

Interior Defensive Line

Pass Rusher

Linebacker and Safety

Cornerback

There are also a few prospects I didn’t get a chance to look at, prospects who have been climbing up boards recently and may sneak up into the first round. Here are a few more names to keep your eyes on.

Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State

Preston Smith, DE, Mississippi State

Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson

Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah

Damarius Randle, S, Arizona State

If any of these players do get drafted in the first round, I’ll try to take a quick look at their tape before I post my breakdown of the first round.

1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

This one was very close, but I ultimately decided on Mariota over Winston. Quarterback is obviously Tampa Bay’s biggest need, and there are two easy solutions available at the top of the draft. Mariota is a much safer bet, and though I don’t have much faith in Tampa Bay’s coaching staff to use him properly, I still have faith that in the long run he will be their quarterback solution.

2) Tennessee Titans – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

This makes it easy for the Titans. They are considering dealing this pick in the actual draft, but if I’m running things they will happily take Winston. He’ll have ups and downs during his rookie season, but with players like Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter to sling the ball to, there will be a lot to look forward to in Tennessee. This is probably the easiest pick I had to make in this entire draft.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars – Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida

Actually, no, this one might be easier. Jacksonville’s pass rush was more productive last year than people realize, but they definitely need talent on the edge. Fowler is the best defensive player in the draft, and he is right there with Amari Cooper for the best overall. Since the Jaguars invested so much in wide receivers last year, it makes more sense to use this pick on young talent to bolster the defensive side of the ball.

4) Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

Derek Carr had an okay rookie season, with good touchdown and interception numbers that hid an atrocious yards per attempt. If he’s going to have any long term success he will need to throw the ball farther downfield, and if he’s going to go farther downfield he’ll need a target that can get open. Cooper will be Carr’s best friend, a reliable receiver who can create consistent separation and run any route.

5) Washington Redskins – Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska

I don’t think pass rusher is a great need for Washington, but since I’m not doing trades they just have to settle for the best player available. Gregory is an athletic monster, and his game is far more developed than you’d expect from a player who only saw two years of major college football. There might be some concerns over a player of his height having to translate to a standup role in Washington’s 3-4, but he showed plenty of success when rushing from a two point stance at Nebraska. He’ll slide seamlessly into the role abandoned by Brian Orakpo, and hopefully he’ll actually be able to stay healthy.

6) New York Jets – Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson

It seems weird to give the Jets another defensive player, considering they haven’t used a first round pick on offense since 2009. But I actually kind of like how their offense is built, with the exception of the quarterback position. With no solution available there, I solve the biggest hole on their defense. The Jets have been in need of a pass rusher for years, and Beasley fits well into Todd Bowles’s scheme.

7) Chicago Bears – Leonard Williams, DT/DE, USC

I’m not as high on Williams as most people, but this is still probably too low for him. He is one of the most physically gifted players in the draft, and by cleaning up his technique he can become a superstar. Even though they have need at receiver, I can’t stomach passing up the possibility to add young talent to a defense that is almost completely barren.

8) Atlanta Falcons – Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri

This is right about the range where I started to get very tempted to put Todd Gurley. But I just can’t stomach having a running back in the top ten, no matter how talented Gurley is. Instead I filled the hole Atlanta’s been desperate to fill for the past two years. Kroy Biermann led the team with 4.5 sacks last year. That is unacceptable. There are concerns about Ray’s athleticism and potential injury risk, but if he’s healthy he will immediately become Atlanta’s best pass rusher.

9) New York Giants – La’el Collins, OT/OG, LSU

Collins isn’t the highest rated offensive lineman on my board, but I put him here ahead of Andrus Peat because he offers more versatility. The Giants need help pretty much everywhere along the line, and Collins could theoretically slide into any role. If they’re comfortable with Will Beatty and Justin Pugh at tackle, they can put Collins at left guard. If they want to move Pugh inside, they can put Collins at right tackle. Peat is the better player, but Collins’s versatility gets him drafted first.

10) St Louis Rams – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville

Parker is the best player remaining, and he fits a hole in St Louis’s roster. Sam Bradford has held back their deep passing game for years, and they finally got a breath of fresh air last season. Parker can stretch the field, and he is a fantastic red zone threat. I don’t believe in Jeff Fisher at head coach, and I certainly don’t believe in Nick Foles at quarterback. But if either of them is going to succeed, it’s with a player like Parker.

11) Minnesota Vikings – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

This one’s simple. The Vikings have bigger needs than wide receiver, but they need a receiver enough that they can just take the best player available. White will add some physicality to a receiving corps that’s built almost entirely on speed. Oh, and he happens to have fantastic speed as well. He’s still raw (though not nearly as much as Cordarrelle Patterson) but he will have a chance to develop with Teddy Bridgewater.                          

12) Cleveland Browns – Danny Shelton, DT, Washington

Last year was supposed to be the year when Cleveland’s defense took a big step forward. It didn’t happen. Their early season success was almost entirely due to their offense, and when their running game and quarterback play fell off, the team collapsed. Their pass defense could use some improvement, but the biggest problem is their run defense, where they ranked near the bottom of the league last season. Shelton will help them stuff up the middle of the field, and he might be able to offer enough of a pass rush to support their secondary.

13) New Orleans Saints – Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA

I really like Kendricks, and I don’t think this is too high for him. New Orleans is desperately trying to revamp their defense, and with no pass rusher worth taking at this point they’ll go for a super athletic inside linebacker who can contribute on all three downs. Kendricks will improve them immediately against both the run and the pass, and wherever he goes he’s my early choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

14) Miami Dolphins – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

Waynes is the best cornerback in the draft, but he’s not as good as some people think he is. This is still probably a bit of a reach, but there is no one available that really fits Miami’s biggest needs. They could use help on the interior offensive line, but this is too high for Scherff. They could use a safety, but this is too high for Collins. Waynes isn’t a ridiculous reach, and he fills a hole opposite Brent Grimes at cornerback.

15) San Francisco 49ers – Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon

This pick didn’t take long to decide on. Armstead is a borderline top ten player in my mind, and only a lack of schematic fit caused him to fall this far. This is a common projection in many mock drafts, and it’s very likely that it will be the same when I post my second mock on Wednesday. Justin Smith is probably retiring, and they need someone to fill his shoes, someone to control tackles and eat space to allow their linebackers to flow and make plays in the backfield.

16) Houston Texans – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma

I considered going a lot of ways with this one before settling on wide receiver. Running back, offensive line, cornerback, but ultimately Green-Beckham was the best fit of talent and need. DeAndre Hopkins had a breakout season last year, but he isn’t good enough to carry a passing game on his own. Green-Beckham can come into a number two role, where he’ll face less pressure and have more time to develop than if a team drafted him to be a number one.

17) San Diego Chargers – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

In this hypothetical mock draft, the Chargers retain hold of Philip Rivers and continue to rely on him as their starting quarterback. With this being the case, they can’t afford to grab a developmental project like Bud Dupree. They need someone who can contribute right away, and there is no one more NFL ready than Gurley. Running back is a very easy position to make the transition from college, and Gurley has enough talent that he could be an All Pro player from the moment he steps onto the field.

18) Kansas City Chiefs – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

Kansas City’s disaster of a receiving corps received all the attention last season, but their offensive line was nearly as bad. I’m not ready to give up on Eric Fisher yet, but another year like his first two would probably get me there. Peat can play right tackle at first, and he can move over to the left side long term if Fisher continues to struggle. It won’t solve all of Kansas City’s offensive troubles, but it’s a start.

19) Cleveland Browns – Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State

There may not be any position on any team more barren than wide receiver for the Browns. Having spent their first pick to address the defensive side of the ball, they almost have to grab the top receiver available. That receiver is Strong, a big, physical talent who needs a lot of polishing before he can really make his mark in the NFL. Ideally his development curve would work in tune with Johnny Manziel’s, and until then his size and strength will be a good bailout option for the young quarterback.

20) Philadelphia Eagles – Landon Collins, S, Alabama

Philadelphia did a lot of work to improve their secondary this offseason, but they still have a glaring hole at safety. They could also use a wide receiver or a quarterback, but Collins provides the best value at number 20. He’ll add some force to the box while Malcolm Jenkins plays over the top, the final piece of their defensive restoration.

21) Cincinnati Bengals – Bud Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky

Cincinnati’s pass rush was atrocious last season, in large part because they haven’t invested high picks in pass rushers. They have some interesting edge players in Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap, but neither is going to pile up sacks in large numbers. Dupree absolutely has the potential to do so, regardless of where they put him on their defense. They still run a scheme similar to former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s, and I could see them using Dupree similarly to Minnesota’s use of Anthony Barr last year.

22) Pittsburgh Steelers – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Here is Pittsburgh’s current starting secondary: Cortez Allen, Shamarko Thomas, Mike Mitchell, and BW Webb. They haven’t spent a pick in either of the first two rounds on a defensive back since 2005, and they can’t afford to wait any longer. Peters is the most pro ready cornerback in this draft, and he will immediately become a starter without much competition.

23) Detroit Lions – Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma

Detroit put together one of the league’s top defenses last year thanks to the strength of their defensive line. But Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley both left in free agency, and the addition of Haloti Ngata is not enough to make up for that on his own. Phillips isn’t as talented as either Suh or Fairley, but he can certainly bring some measure of the disruptiveness that allowed their defense to excel last season.

24) Arizona Cardinals – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

Andre Ellington is a useful player, but he showed very clearly last season that he cannot handle a full time role. Arizona needs a starting caliber running back, and if they can’t make a trade for Adrian Peterson, then Gordon is their best bet. He’ll be a good compliment for Ellington, a larger and more physical back who comes off the field in passing situations.

25) Carolina Panthers – DJ Humphries, OT, Florida

Last year Carolina had two major holes in the draft. They somewhat fixed their wide receiver problems, but they did absolutely nothing to help their offensive line. Humphries can start at either tackle for them from day one, and they can fill in the other spot using either of the free agents they signed. It’s still not great, but it’s the next step in building their offense around Cam Newton.

26) Baltimore Ravens – Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF

If there’s one thing Joe Flacco does well, it’s throw the ball deep. And say whatever you will about Perriman, he certainly can run a deep route. The Ravens lost their burner Torrey Smith this offseason, and they need someone to bring that vertical element to their passing game. Perriman might take time to reach Smith’s level, but his ceiling is significantly higher.

27) Dallas Cowboys – Owa Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA

Dallas managed to scrap together a functional defense last year thanks to a tremendous coaching job by defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli. But now they need some actual talent, and they’ll get it in the form of Odighizuwa. Marinelli is one of the best defensive line coaches in the NFL has ever seen, and teaming him with a prospect of Odighizuwa’s athleticism is almost unfair.

28) Denver Broncos – Brandon Scherff, OG, Iowa

The Broncos may have only one more year before their Manning window closes, and they need to draft someone who can help them right now. Their offensive line was deceptively terrible last season, hurting them in both the run and passing game. Scherff might not do much to improve their pass protection, but he can blow holes open in the running game to give their offense the versatility they had during their Super Bowl run two years ago.

29) Indianapolis Colts – TJ Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh

Indianapolis is at a weird point. They are desperately in win now mode, but they also have to start building for the future with Andrew Luck. Clemmings better suits that latter goal, a high upside offensive lineman who will need some time to develop. In the short term he might be able to fill their hole at right guard, while in the long run he can be developed as a potential starting left tackle.

30) Green Bay Packers – Jalen Collins, CB, LSU

Green Bay needs an inside linebacker, and I strongly considered giving them Shaq Thompson. But I think Collins is a better prospect, especially for a team that doesn’t want to waste time trying to figure out what exactly Thompson is. They have two solid cornerbacks in Sam Shields and Casey Heyward, but Heyward has injury issues and is better in the slot. Collins might need a year or so to really develop, but he’ll eventually be able to step in as a starter on the outside.

31) New Orleans Saints – Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State

New Orleans desperately needs someone opposite Keenan Lewis at cornerback, but both times they picked there really wasn’t a good value to be found. So instead they fill one of their other needs on defense, a run stuffer in the middle. I’m not a huge fan of Goldman, but he’s the only defensive tackle out there at this point who can line up over center play in and play out. He’ll eat the blockers placed ahead of him, giving Kendricks space to scrape after the ball.

32) New England Patriots – Duke Johnson, RB, Miami

This seems like a strange pick, but it makes a lot of sense for what New England needs. Bill Belichick has a bit of a reputation for cycling through running backs, but if he ends up with one as talented as Johnson he will stick with him. Johnson can do a lot of the same things Shane Vereen did as a receiver, and he can contribute more frequently as a runner. Their offense needs some playmakers, and Johnson is one of the few playmakers in this draft who can contribute right away for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.