2015 Pass Rusher Prospects

The importance of pressuring the quarterback has always been obvious, but it has become increasingly valuable in recent years. A strong pass rush can single handedly elevate a mediocre defense (Detroit and Miami, for example), just as a mediocre pass rush can sink an otherwise talented unit (Cincinnati, Tampa Bay). There are a lot of talented pass rushers available in this year’s draft, with potentially eight worthy of going in the first round. Of these, there is a clear gap between the top four and the second tier. Four potential superstars are available, with a bevy of quality starters available for those who miss out.

Dante Fowler – Florida

Fowler is the best and the most versatile defensive player in this draft. He is capable of playing multiple positions in multiple schemes, and we know this because during his time at Florida we saw him play multiple positions in multiple schemes. No one moved around as much as Fowler did. He lined up in a down position on the edge, in a two point stance off the ball, even occasionally as a nose tackle in passing situations. Whatever defense a team runs, they can find a place for Fowler to do his thing.

Fowler’s game is predicated on explosiveness. He is quick off the ball out of either a two or a three point stance, able to blow around the corner or shoot through a gap before opposing linemen can get out of their stances. He has the size and the strength to ignore blockers once he has an angle towards the quarterback. At times he can play a bit too out of control in the backfield, missing opportunities to increase his rather pedestrian sack totals. But even when he doesn’t bring the quarterback down he is wreaking havoc in the backfield, and it should be a relatively easy fix to bring him to consistent double digit sack production.

The biggest criticism that can be levied against Fowler is with his hands. He doesn’t create good extension with his arms, and he ends up wasting a lot of energy grappling in and around a blocker’s chest. At times he gets absolutely stonewalled when he can’t win on the initial burst. But at others he shows flashes of potential with secondary moves. He can spin back inside, he can swim over the top, and he can throw linemen to the side to open up a lane to the quarterback.

Fowler is a developmental prospect in a lot of ways, but he’s good enough that he can contribute right now at a number of positions. His ceiling is as a perennial All Pro player, provided he can develop more consistency with his secondary moves and improve in holding his ground against the run. A player of his talent shouldn’t fall outside of the top five, and right now I’d find it difficult to put any non-quarterback position above him.

Randy Gregory – Nebraska

A long and lanky edge rusher, Gregory offers a very appetizing combination of athletic ability and pass rushing polish. He spent only two years playing major college football after transferring from a junior college, but during those two years he was one of the best pass rushers in the nation. He has excellent speed around the edge, but what really puts him over the top is the variety and skill he brings to the game despite his lack of high level experience.

The biggest concern about Gregory is his size. He weighed only 235 pounds at the combine despite standing 6’5” tall. He is incredibly lanky, and it is easy to imagine him being pushed around by linemen who outweigh him by nearly a hundred pounds. The strange thing is, that doesn’t seem to happen on film. He boasts surprising strength, makes excellent use of leverage, and has one of the best bull rushes of any pass rusher in the draft. He may be only 235 pounds and he may have only managed 24 reps in the bench press, but his functional size and strength greatly outpaces these numbers

The secret to Gregory’s success is his handwork. He always leads with his hands, striking a lineman beneath his shoulders and bending him backwards to create separation with his long arms. It’s a rare college prospect who can create this kind of separation, and an even rarer one who can make use of it like Gregory does. He can drive a lineman backwards into the quarterback. He can rip his way past either to the inside or the outside. He can do essentially anything he wants with the lineman in front of him once his hands are engaged, making him a dangerous rusher even after his initial rush fails.

There are a few things he needs to clean up at the next level. He sometimes gives up too quickly on the play, and he needs to learn to be more aggressive. He is merely average against the run when his skill with his hands should make him much more. He’ll gain these skills over time, but until then he’ll be able to contribute as a starter from the moment he enters the league.

Vic Beasley – Clemson

Beasley is the traditional edge rusher, light and explosive and impossibly quick around the edge. Concerns over his size were eased somewhat at the combine where he weighed in at 246 pounds, then eased even further when he torched the speed, strength, and agility tests. He ran a 4.53 forty yard dash, jumped 41 inches in the vertical, and put up 35 reps in the bench press. His stock has risen throughout the draft process, to the point where he is now being considered a top three pick.

Most of Beasley’s sacks are earned at the snap of the ball. He is incredibly quick into the backfield, especially when he starts with his hand in the dirt. He can penetrate on the inside or race around the edge, and it is a rare tackle with the footwork sharp enough to handle him. At times he plays smaller than he weighs, getting pushed off his rushing lane and giving the quarterback too much room to maneuver in the pocket. But he does a good job preventing this by evading a blocker’s hands, keeping low to get into the lineman’s chest and swatting himself free with his own arms.

Beasley’s strength was impressive at the combine, but it doesn’t always translate to the field. He gets pushed around too easily in the running game, and he really only contributes on that side of the ball when he can penetrate and disrupt the play in the backfield. He needs to get better at setting an edge and preventing himself from being sealed off.

The same strength would benefit him as a pass rusher, allowing him to create more separation with his arms to transition into secondary moves. His lateral quickness is phenomenal, but he very rarely beats a blocker once they are engaged, with one notable exception. His spin move is absolutely devastating, far and away the best individual move of any pass rusher in the draft. It is something to build on, but he will need to develop a more complex game going forward. His speed makes him a top ten pick, but a lack of versatility holds him behind the other rushers.

Shane Ray – Missouri

I am including Ray in the top tier of pass rushers, but I think it’s safe to say he’s got a firm grip on the bottom spot of the four. His athleticism is a clear level below the other three, and his technique is still too raw to make up that difference. For that reason perception of him has fallen over the past few weeks, slipping him to the late first round in some projections.

Ray’s athletic numbers are concerning, but he looks more than functional on the field. He gets off the ball extremely well, and he displays excellent lateral quickness when he makes cuts back to the inside. His strength is a minor concern, and he can get knocked off his route when a blocker gets his hands on him. But he does a good job avoiding these hands, staying low and playing at a sharp angle to cut under a taller tackle’s arms.

He is still very dangerous around the edge, but his shortcomings show up in other areas. He can create separation with his arms like Gregory, but he doesn’t have the strength to turn this leverage into power. Linemen anchor against him, and there is very little he can do to knock them back or to disengage. His hands don’t offer him much help, and once his first move fails he relies almost solely on tenacity to get to the quarterback.

Ray’s upside is more limited than the other top prospects, but he could still turn into a top quality pass rusher in the NFL. His lack of athleticism may prevent him from being a linebacker, but for a pure 4-3 team he will make an excellent starting defensive end for years to come. If the other three are off the board, I don’t think it would be a reach for a team to take him in the top ten, provided his limited versatility fits what they are looking for in a pass rusher.

Owa Odighizuwa – UCLA

 

There is a significant dropoff after the top four pass rushers in the draft. The next four players have some combination of athletic ability and technical skill, but none blend the two like the premier talents in the class. Odighizuwa falls into the former category, a physical marvel who lacks the skills to be a consistently dominant pass rusher. Despite his athletic ability his upside is limited, but he does enough well at this point that I have him ranked as the best of the second tier.

A lack of versatility hurts Odighizuwa from the start. At 267 pounds he is too large to play linebacker and too small to play defensive end in the 3-4. He might be able to bulk up some, but I think he is probably limited to teams that either run a consistent 4-3 or use a lot of hybrid looks. As a defensive end, he can bounce around several places on the line, but he doesn’t have the strength to hold up in the interior outside of occasional passing circumstances.

Odighizuwa’s greatest assets are his hands. He initiates contact with the lineman in front of him, using his long and strong arms to create separation and gain control. He isn’t able to do much from there to beat his man, but he does a good job reading the play and shedding when the ball comes his way. This makes him an excellent run defender (easily the best of the eight players on this list) but it limits his ability to contribute as a pass rusher. His combine numbers were excellent, but this speed doesn’t translate onto the field. He won’t be beating any offensive tackles around the corner, and when he does collect sacks it is usually due to coverage and tenacity.

There is potential for Odighizuwa to develop a more complete pass rushing game down the road, but he strikes me as the sort of player who will always be limited. That doesn’t mean he can’t be useful however. The best situation would be as a secondary option on a team with an established pass rusher opposite him, someone to take the pressure off so he can focus on the run while collecting a sack here or there. He will never accumulate large sack numbers, but he’s still worth a late first round pick.

Nate Orchard – Utah

Orchard is far and away the least athletic of the eight edge rushers I broke down. He was below average at the combine in nearly every metric, reinforcing the questionable athleticism he showed on the field. He isn’t particularly quick in tight spaces, he doesn’t have much burst going up the field, and his strength leaves quite a bit to be desired. But he is a technical expert as a pass rusher, particularly with his hands, and he offers enough that he’s probably worth looking at late in the first round.

Like Odighizuwa, Orchard offers limited versatility. He might be able to play as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but his size and lack of speed will likely cause problems anywhere other than a 4-3 defensive end. Also like Odighizuwa, Orchard doesn’t contribute much as a speed rusher around the edge. He’s strong enough that he is difficult to knock off his path when he does try to turn the corner, but no NFL tackle is going to have an issue staying square in front of him.

Orchard’s success as a pass rusher comes after the initial burst. He strikes quick and hard with his hands, gaining control of the blocker across from him and using that control to pull off a wide variety of moves. He can toss a lineman away to open up a lane, he can break back inside to get to the quarterback, or he can simply walk the tackle backwards until an opportunity presents itself. Orchard’s pure strength isn’t particularly impressive, but his use of leverage and handfighting gives him the ability to overpower linemen as a pass rusher.

He isn’t as good against the run as he probably should be. He doesn’t disengage as well when he reads run, and linemen attacking downhill can usually shove him backwards. He will need to get better as a run defender if he’s going to find long term success in the NFL, since he doesn’t have the physical gifts to be a pure pass rusher. Orchard will be a starter down the road in a very similar role to Odighizuwa, but I have to knock him lower on my board due to his lack of athletic upside.

Bud Dupree – Kentucky

Dupree is the official athletic freak of this year’s class. You simply cannot find players that combine his size, speed, and explosiveness. Despite weighing 269 pounds, he has all the speed he could need to play linebacker in the NFL. He is far more versatile than any of the other players in the second tier, a fit for any coaches and any scheme. It’s difficult not to fall in love with what he did at the combine, where he somehow pulled off a 4.56 40 yard dash, a 11’6” broad jump, and a 42 inch vertical. Dupree just oozes potential, the sort that has some people talking about him as a top ten pick.

His combine numbers suggest a player who is dangerously explosive, and his film backs that up. He shoots off the line with tremendous burst, creating lanes towards the quarterback based on his initial getoff. He can race around the edge or shoot through the middle, and he is often completely untouched as he goes after the quarterback. Even when someone does get a hand on him, he has the strength to turn the corner and speed to close in on the ball.

Dupree can create opportunities for himself off the snap of the ball, but he doesn’t do much if his initial burst fails to give him an edge. He has the strength required to free himself with his hands, but he doesn’t make use of them often enough to consider this a true asset of his game. His lateral quickness leaves a lot to be desired, and once he’s engaged the play is essentially over for him.

Dupree collected sacks in large numbers in college, but this production overrates his pass rushing abilities. Many of his big plays came when he was totally unblocked due to well designed blitzes that confused the opposing offensive line. He does deserve some credit for this, timing his rush perfectly to find the gaps and closing in on the quarterback before he can react. In the NFL smart coaches will know how to use him as they develop more complex pass rushing moves. I could see him in a very similar role to the one Anthony Barr found with the Vikings last year, playing off the ball but spending a lot of time blitzing through the A gap. Dupree has a lot of ability, and he could end up being the best pass rusher from his class. But I have to disagree with the people who have him ranked as one of the top ten players. He is still on the second tier, even if he is the most intriguing option among this group.

Eli Harold – Virginia

Harold’s game is all about quickness. Quickness off the ball, quickness up the field, quickness cutting back to the inside. He doesn’t need much of an angle to burst past an offensive lineman to get to the quarterback, and his explosion off the ball is usually enough to give him this advantage.

He’s better coming out of a three point stance than standing up, but he has the athleticism necessary to transition to linebacker in the NFL, even though it will be a steep learning curve. He has no experience in pass coverage, and he doesn’t track the ball particularly well through a crowd. He’d probably be best with a team that will use him as a pass rusher only at first, a defensive end going by the name of linebacker where he can use his speed to chase around the edge or shoot through an interior gap.

Speed is Harold’s most attractive asset, largely because it’s the only one he brings to the table. When he can’t find an angle past a lineman, there’s really nothing he can do. He doesn’t use his hands at all, and blockers have no trouble staying latched onto him once they’re engaged. He has no secondary moves, and he doesn’t have the strength to pull off any sort of bull rush. In the running game he is almost nonexistent, failing to set an edge and consistently being driven backwards from the line.

Harold is quick, but the NFL is full of quick pass rushers. More importantly, the NFL is full of offensive linemen who know how to handle quick pass rushers. Until he can add strength and develop some polish to his game, Harold will be consigned to a role as a situational pass rusher. He might be able to grab five sacks a year with what he has right now, and the team that drafts him just has to hope they can get something more out of him down the road. The risk is high enough that I wouldn’t take him in the first round.