Yesterday I put together a mock draft of what would happen if I was in charge on every team. I have since been informed that I am not actually in charge of a single NFL franchise. So I decided just to accept reality, to put out a mock draft of what I think will happen rather than what I think should happen. I haven't included any trades, since opening the possibility of trades kind of defeats the purpose of a mock draft. But I did mention trade possibilities in a few spots where they are likely to occur.
In case you’re curious about any
of these prospects, I wrote up every position group over the past month.
There are also a few prospects I
didn’t get a chance to look at, prospects who have been climbing up boards
recently and may sneak up into the first round. Here are a few more names to
keep your eyes on.
Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State
Preston Smith, DE, Mississippi State
Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson
Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah
Damarius Randle, S, Arizona State
If any of these players do get
drafted in the first round, I’ll try to take a quick look at their tape before
I post my breakdown of the first round.
1) Tampa
Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
I don’t have much to say on this
one. Winston will be the first pick, he’ll end up with the Buccaneers, and he
has a very good chance of being the quarterback there for the next decade.
He’ll have an up and down rookie year, making a lot of great plays and a lot of
terrible ones. I’m not sure if this is the best environment for him
(questionable coaching staff and still very close proximity to the problems he had in
college), but it’s where he’s going to end up.
2) Tennessee
Titans – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Okay, I covered this one on Sunday. Mariota is probably going to be drafted with the
second pick. It may or may not be by the Titans. For now, since I’m not
projecting trades, I’m just going to give him to Tennessee. It would be a good pick, and it
would help their team in the long run. Mariota isn’t the second best player in
this draft, but his position makes it worthwhile value.
3) Jacksonville
Jaguars – Dante Fowler, DE/OLB,
Florida
Here’s the first (but not the
last) position where both my mock drafts overlap. Fowler is an incredibly
talented and incredibly athletic prospect, and he could form the core of a
dangerous pass rush for years. I could also see the Jaguars selecting Vic
Beasley if they believe he’s a better fit for his scheme, or Leonard Williams
if they feel his is a superior player. Williams doesn’t fit a need as well, but
for a player of his talent they can make it work.
4) Oakland
Raiders – Leonard Williams, DE/DT, USC
This pick probably comes down to
three players: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, or Williams. All three are talented
players, and all three would immediately improve Oakland’s roster. I decided to go with
Williams because most people believe he is the better player, and because Oakland’s offseason moves
have done more to address the holes at receiver than on the defensive line. I
could definitely see them adding help for Derek Carr, and if they did so I
think they would probably choose Cooper over White.
5) Washington
Redskins – Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
Washington really doesn’t want to make this
pick. If there is one team I am most confident will make a trade, it's be the Redskins. They could use a pass rusher, but they
have much more serious needs at cornerback and offensive line, needs that have
better value later in the first round. If they can’t find anyone interested in
trading up, they’ll take the best pass rusher available, likely Beasley.
6) New York
Jets – Bud Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
Dupree has been shooting up draft
boards since the season ended, putting together a fantastic performance at the
combine. The Jets need a pass rusher, and I expect they’ll choose the raw
prospect over more skilled players like Gregory and Ray. Never mind that this
is the exact same spot where they selected Vernon Gholston in 2008. This is
probably a bit too high for Dupree, but even if the Jets don’t take him I
expect he’ll still end up in the top ten.
7) Chicago
Bears – Kevin White, WR, West
Virginia
I don’t particularly like this
pick, but I do think the Bears will end up taking a wide receiver. They need a
second option opposite Alshon Jeffery, and White would give them a pair of big,
physical talents on the outside. I think they have several more pressing needs
on the defensive side of the ball, and they could invest in either a pass
rusher or a nose tackle like Danny Shelton.
8) Atlanta
Falcons – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Here’s where things get
interesting. Atlanta
needs a pass rusher, but people have soured on both Randy Gregory and Shane
Ray. With Fowler, Beasley, and Dupree off the board, the Falcons will address
another major need. Now that concerns over Gurley’s knees have been cleaned up,
he can be judged on merit alone, and on merit alone he is a top ten player
in the draft. The demise of the running back position has been overblown, and
whether it is the Falcons or someone else, I think Gurley will end up in the
top ten.
9) New York
Giants – Brandon Scherff, OG, Iowa
Scherff is the best guard in the
draft, and he will probably go in the top ten. The Giants seem like the most
likely destination, as they have no other major needs that line up with players
in this range. They could use some help at safety or at linebacker, but neither
of those positions is worth taking this high. Scherff is the most likely
option, though I could see them as a team who could possibly go for Gurley if
he is there for them.
10) St Louis
Rams – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
The Rams have invested a lot in
wide receivers over the past few years, and they have more pressing needs at
both offensive line and cornerback. But with Cooper available at this point,
they simply can’t pass up this level of a prospect. Cooper is the most NFL
ready receiver to enter the league in a very long time, and his upside is far
better than people think. The coaching staff has shown that they can’t develop
wide receivers, so they’ll do the smart thing and grab one who doesn’t need
much developing.
11) Minnesota
Vikings – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
This is obviously the most
important selection to me, so I’m going to go a bit more in depth on it. Most
reports have the Vikings connected to Trae Waynes, a cornerback to put opposite
Xavier Rhodes. This would make a lot of success, but I can’t help being a
little skeptical. Over the past few years no one has blown smoke like Vikings
GM Rick Spielman, and he could just be trying to get a team like the Saints or
the Dolphins to trade up. Then again, there probably isn’t a coach more
straightforward than Mike Zimmer, and he’s been seen doing a lot of work with Waynes at various
workouts.
Waynes could very well end up being the pick,
as could someone a bit more unexpected like Randy Gregory or Marcus Peters. But
I think their true target is DeVante Parker. There is obviously the Louisville connection between Bridgewater and Parker, but I don’t see that
as a reason to draft him. Whoever they get at wide receiver, they have time to
build up chemistry with the quarterback. I think they’ll take Parker because
he’s the best player on the board, and because he fills an immediate need on
the outside, a big receiver to complement their smaller, faster guys.
12) Cleveland
Browns – Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
Everything I’m hearing suggests
that the Browns love Shelton,
to the point that they are willing to jump up a few spots just to make certain
he isn’t taken before he gets to them. They were one of the worst defenses in
the league against the run last year, and Shelton
will offer an immediate body in the middle to stuff things up. His upside is
tremendous, especially if he can harness his athleticism as a productive pass
rusher. Of course, this all goes completely out the window if they follow through on the rumor that they are planning to trade both their first round picks to acquire Mariota.
13) New Orleans
Saints – Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
Concerns over Gregory’s weight
and his failed drug test drop him from the top ten, to the benefit of the
Saints. New Orleans
has been looking for a top notch pass rusher for years, and Gregory finally
gives them true talent on the edge. He moves very well for his height, and he
has the technical skill to contribute immediately. New Orleans is looking to quickly revamp
their defense, and Gregory offers the most immediate impact of any of the top
pass rushers in the draft.
14) Miami
Dolphins – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan
State
Waynes could very easily go higher than this
on draft night. Number five to the Redskins has an outside shot, but the spot
where I’d start watching is the Rams at number 10. There are a lot of
cornerback needy teams, and I could see someone trading up for him. I could
also see him suffering a fall, as teams begin to poke at his questionable
agility scores. So I plopped him down somewhere in the middle, to a team
desperately in need of a second cornerback and in a position where none of
their other needs present great value.
15) San Francisco
49ers – Arik Armstead, DE/DT,
Oregon
Another spot where my two mock
drafts line up. This pick makes sense in reality for the same reasons it makes
sense if I was put in charge. Armstead fills a hole, offers high upside, and is
properly valued in the middle of the round. He’ll take the pressure off Aldon
Smith as a pass rusher, helping the 49ers reclaim some measure of their
defensive dominance.
16) Houston
Texans – Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
Last year an undersized but
athletic linebacker went higher than most people expected. Ryan Shazier was
grabbed by the Steelers at number 15, and I can see Kendricks going in a
similar range. Houston
has no glaring needs, and they could go several directions with this pick. But
I think they end up grabbing the high upside linebacker to shore up the middle
of their defense.
17) San
Diego Chargers – La’el Collins, OT/OG, LSU
If San Diego doesn’t move up to grab Mariota,
they will turn their attention fully to building around Philip Rivers for the
next few seasons. They could use a running back, but their most glaring
weakness on offense is their line. Collins can play either on the inside or
outside, starting from day one and contributing in both the run and the pass
game.
18) Kansas
City Chiefs – Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
Kansas City is desperately in need of a
playmaker on the outside after going an entire season without a touchdown by a
wide receiver. I was tempted to give them Dorial Green-Beckham as a red zone
threat, but over the course of his time in Kansas City
and Philadelphia,
Andy Reid has shown a consistent preference for smaller, faster receivers.
Perriman is bigger than players like Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson, but he
has the sort of blazing speed Reid loves on the edges of his offense.
19) Cleveland
Browns – Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona
State
In the mock draft I posted
yesterday, I had the Browns ending up with Danny Shelton and Jaelen Strong. In
the draft I’m posting today, same exact thing. Cleveland was wretchedly thin at wide
receiver back when they had any hope of Josh Gordon contributing, and now it is
almost laughable how little they have. Strong needs a lot of work, but he has
enough physicality to contribute immediately, similar to
Kelvin Benjamin’s rookie season.
20) Philadelphia
Eagles – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
Green-Beckham is going to be a
first rounder. A lot of teams are very concerned about his off the field
issues, but it only takes one to decide he’s worth the risk. In this case I
think that one team will be the Eagles. Just as Andy Reid loves fast receivers,
Chip Kelly loves big receivers. He also loves himself, and I’d wager he is
completely convinced that he can control Green-Beckham off the field and get
the most of him on the field.
21) Cincinnati
Bengals – Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
Ray’s plummet down the draft
boards has been long and brutal, taking the next step this past week when he
was cited for marijuana possession. I don’t think that will significantly
affect his stock, not nearly as much as rumors of a serious injury and his
failure in the athletic tests. He might fall out of the first round, but I
think he’d be a perfect fit for Cincinnati’s
scheme, starting as a rotational defensive end and working into a larger role
as he develops more advanced technique.
22) Pittsburgh
Steelers – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
Another selection where my two
mock drafts overlap. Many consider Peters to be the most talented cornerback in
the draft, and he only falls this far due to issues with the coaching staff
that got him kicked off Washington’s team last year. Reports are that he’s a
bit overcompetitive, and that he wasn’t happy with what he saw as a rebuilding
year his final season in college. His best chance of success is to go to a team
with a strong and stable coaching staff, and no team fits this profile better
than Pittsburgh.
23) Detroit
Lions – Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
I’m not as high on Brown as most
people. Some seem to believe he’ll go higher than this, possibly even in the
first half of the round. This is a much smaller reach, by a team desperate to
fill a gaping hole. I don’t anticipate the Lions using this pick on an
offensive player, but they could try to grab a cornerback or a safety to
bolster the back end of their defense rather than the front. Teryl Austin has
shown himself to be a phenomenal defensive coordinator, and I trust that he can
rework his scheme to compensate for a change in personnel.
24) Arizona
Cardinals – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Arizona has been pushing to get Adrian
Peterson this offseason, and while I wouldn’t rule out a draft day trade, it
seems that they aren’t willing to pay the price the Vikings are asking. Instead
they’ll fill their hole at running back by grabbing one of the top two in the
draft. If Gurley goes in the top ten as some expect, I could see Gordon making
a similar leap up the board as teams panic and reevaluate how people perceive
the running backs. But in this situation he falls to Arizona, a suitable overlap of need and
talent.
25) Carolina
Panthers – DJ Humphries, OT, Florida
Carolina is going to take an offensive
tackle. The only question is which offensive tackle. There is a lot of
disagreement about who the best lineman in the draft is, but the most
consistent name near the top of these lists is Humphries. He has tremendous
upside, and he flashes enough ability to start immediately for a team
desperately in need.
26) Baltimore
Ravens – Landon Collins, S, Alabama
This isn’t a pick I’ve seen
mocked very often, but it makes a lot of sense. The Ravens used a first round
pick on safety Matt Elam two years ago, and so far he’s been a major
disappointment. Even if he does pick it up, they could still use some help on their back end. Collins is a talented player who has fallen some
due to concerns over his mobility, the result of an injury his final year in
college. He deserves to go higher than this, and the Ravens do as they always
do, smartly grabbing a talented player at a good value.
27) Dallas
Cowboys – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake
Forest
Johnson has seen a recent surge
in popularity, and some are now projecting him as the top cornerback in the
draft. I’m still not entirely certain about him. I like what I see, but I’m not
confident in his ability to track receivers in man coverage after he played
primarily zone in college. At this point in the first round, however, the risk
is definitely worth taking. Dallas
needs to start building their defense up, and Johnson might be able to make up
for some of the damage done by the Morris Claiborne selection three years ago.
28) Denver
Broncos – Cameron Erving, OL, Florida
State
Denver’s offensive line was their greatest
weakness last year, particularly on the inside. They couldn’t run the ball at
all, and by the end they couldn’t keep Manning upright. Erving is projected
primarily as a center, but he has experience playing everywhere on the line and
could conceivably start at guard. His versatility will give Gary Kubiak a lot
to play with as he tries to reshape this offense.
29) Indianapolis
Colts – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Peat has been getting a lot of
interesting buzz over the past few weeks, and don’t be surprised if he goes
much higher than this, possibly even as high as the number six to the Jets, who
are reportedly very high on him. But I think he’ll end up being available near
the end of the first round, where a team with a shaky offensive line can snag
him for good value. There are still a lot of connections between Indianapolis and
Stanford, and I think they’ll be smart to add another Cardinal to their
offense.
30) Green Bay
Packers – Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida
State
The Packers addressed the need on
their interior somewhat by resigning BJ Raji and Letroy Guion, but neither is a
long term solution. Goldman is a younger, healthier version of Raji, a
disruptive space eater who can absorb multiple blockers. Their more pressing
need is at inside linebacker, and I could see them reaching for someone like
Shaq Thompson or Benardrick McKinney (or snagging Eric Kendricks if he falls
farther than I expect). This is a pressing need, but it’s also one easily
addressed in the second round.
31) New Orleans
Saints – Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
The safer cornerback picks are
off the board, forcing New Orleans
to gamble on the one with the highest upside. Jones absolutely torched the Combine,
setting a world record in the broad jump and launching himself into the first
round conversation. His coverage skills have been a bit overrated, and New Orleans might stray
away from him if they’re looking for someone with more immediate impact. But I
think at this they are committed to rebuilding their defense from the bottom
up, even if it means wasting the last few years of Drew Brees’s career.
32) New England Patriots – Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah
New England
is in the midst of reshuffling their defense. Last year they built their scheme
around a talented and deep secondary, but with the losses of Brandon Browner
and Darrelle Revis it appears they are switching their focus to their pass
rush. They still need some help at the back end, and Belichick loves versatile
players like the athletic Rowe, who will start as a cornerback but could
transition to safety much as Devin McCourty did.
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